Estimation or, "How to Dig your Grave"

Estimation Or,“How to Dig your own Grave” Rowan Merewood

Who● Software Engineer● & Team Lead● at Ibuildings

Who● Software Engineer● & Team Lead● at Ibuildings● @rowan_m

Why● Ive seen (& made) mistakes

Why● Ive seen (& made) mistakes● You can avoid them

Why● Ive seen (& made) mistakes● You can avoid them● Make your own

What could possibly go wrong?

Sales create estimates

Sales create estimates ● Use skills correctly

Sales create estimates ● Use skills correctly ● Send a dev with sales

Sales create estimates ● Use skills correctly ● Send a dev with sales ● If youre sales & dev...

Sales create estimates ● Use skills correctly ● Send a dev with sales ● If youre sales & dev... remember which hat youre wearing

Lone developer creates estimates

Lone developer creates estimates● Its ok, hes a ROCKSTAR

Lone developer creates estimates● Its ok, hes a ROCKSTAR● Independent estimates

Lone developer creates estimates● Its ok, hes a ROCKSTAR● Independent estimates● Or, at least review

Estimate from detailed task lists

Estimate from detailed task lists ● You know it will change

Estimate from detailed task lists ● You know it will change ● Gives misplaced confidence

Estimate from detailed task lists ● You know it will change ● Gives misplaced confidence ● Encourages micro- management

Estimate a day as 8 hours

Estimate a day as 8 hours● 16 hr. task == 2 days

Estimate a day as 8 hours● 16 hr. task == 2 days (ha ha – youre cute)

Estimate a day as 8 hours● 16 hr. task == 2 days (ha ha – youre cute)● You are not a code machine

Estimate a day as 8 hours● 16 hr. task == 2 days (ha ha – youre cute)● You are not a code machine● Even if you are, your team is not

Estimate a day as 8 hours● 16 hr. task == 2 days (ha ha – youre cute)● You are not a code machine● Even if you are, your team is not● Dev: 6 hr. Lead: 4 hr.

Estimate in hours

Estimate in hours● Still too much detail

Estimate in hours● Still too much detail● Use ¼ days

Estimate in hours● Still too much detail● Use ¼ days● ¼, ½, 1, 2, 3 days

Estimate in hours● Still too much detail● Use ¼ days● ¼, ½, 1, 2, 3 days● 1, 3, 5, 7 days

Estimate in hours● Still too much detail● Use ¼ days● ¼, ½, 1, 2, 3 days● 1, 3, 5, 7 days● Larger increments, larger projects

Just estimate coding time

Just estimate coding time ● Remember your overheads

Just estimate coding time ● Remember your overheads ● Remember team overheads

Just estimate coding time ● Remember your overheads ● Remember team overheads ● Think about dependencies

Estimates as commitments

Estimates as commitments ● Well, yes and no...

Estimates as commitments ● Well, yes and no... ● List and quantify risk

Estimates as commitments ● Well, yes and no... ● List and quantify risk ● Estimates != schedule

Waterfall estimates are useless

Waterfall estimates are useless● Fine, stop calling yourself an engineer

Waterfall estimates are useless● Fine, stop calling yourself an engineer● Lots of work in “off-the-shelf” tasks

Waterfall estimates are useless● Fine, stop calling yourself an engineer● Lots of work in “off-the-shelf” tasks● Cone of Uncertainty

Agile means we cant estimate

Agile means we cant estimate “Yeah, well, you know, thats just like, your opinion, man.”

Agile means we cant estimate● Over-reaction to Waterfall “Yeah, well, you know, thats just like, your opinion, man.”

Agile means we cant estimate● Over-reaction to Waterfall● Excuse to drop software engineering and just hack it “Yeah, well, you know, thats just like, your opinion, man.”

Enough mistakes, time for a treat

Help your client understand ● Estimates as a budget

Help your client understand ● Estimates as a budget ● The Holy Triangle ● MoSCoW ● Kano model

Holy Triangle GoodCheap Fast

Holy Triangle Good Scope Quality CostCheap Time Fast

MoSCoW ● Must ● Should ● Could ● Wont

MoSCoW ● Must ● Should ● Could Density ● WontCapacity

MoSCoW ● Must ● Should ● Could Density ● Wont

Kano Model

Kano Model● Basic functionality● Performance● Exciters

Kano Model● Basic functionality High Satisfaction● Performance● Exciters Exciters Performance Feature Present Feature Absent Basic Low Satisfaction

Earn their trust, then get agile

Earn their trust, then get agile ● Low risk, fixed price to start

Earn their trust, then get agile ● Low risk, fixed price to start ● Create a roadmap

Earn their trust, then get agile ● Low risk, fixed price to start ● Create a roadmap ● Move to sprint-based work

Gamble with Planning Poker

Gamble with Planning Poker● The whole team makes the commitment

Gamble with Planning Poker● The whole team makes the commitment● Combines independent estimates and review

And now mistakes during projects

Lose track of time

Lose track of time● Developers hate time-tracking

Lose track of time● Developers hate time-tracking● Automate if you can

Lose track of time● Developers hate time-tracking● Automate if you can● Include it in stand-ups to update the burn-down

Estimate bugs

Estimate bugs ● “Nein, nein, nein! Das ist verboten!” -- @dzuelke

Estimate bugs ● “Nein, nein, nein! Das ist verboten!” -- @dzuelke ● You do not know the size of the problem

Estimate bugs ● “Nein, nein, nein! Das ist verboten!” -- @dzuelke ● You do not know the size of the problem ● Spend 3 days investigating – change 1 line of code

Try to catch up

Try to catch up● [wo]man up and admit youre wrong

Try to catch up● [wo]man up and admit youre wrong● Dont burn yourself or your team out

Try to catch up● [wo]man up and admit youre wrong● Dont burn yourself or your team out● Work overtime and you set a precedent

Skip the review

Skip the review● Make time to learn

Skip the review● Make time to learn● Share your mistakes, so others avoid them

Questions? ● Feedback http://joind.in/6321 (dont make me send the clown)

Credits● All sculpture/photos © Tamra Kohl http://www.flickr.com/photos/claylindo/ (Used with kind permission)● Thank you!● Photo jiggery-pokery: http://pixlr.com/o-matic/● Background: http://www.colourlovers.com/pattern/635/Death_Flowers

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Estimation or, "How to Dig your Grave"

by Rowan Merewood on Oct 08, 2011

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