Ouvidoria de Balcão vs Ouvidoria Digital: Desafios na Era Big Data

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Apresentação realizada no dia 14/03/2017 por Rommel N. Carvalho na Semana de Ouvidoria e Acesso à Informação de 2017, organizada pela CGU. YouTube: https://youtu.be/vNMtULu5X1c?t=3h20m24s

Government & Nonprofit

Ouvidoria de Balcão vs
Ouvidoria Digital
Desafios na Era Big Data
Reunião Geral de Ouvidorias 2017 – 14/03/2017
Dr. Rommel N. Carvalho – http://about.me/rommelnc

Ouvidoria de Balcão vs Ouvidoria Digital

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Ouvidoria de Balcão vs Ouvidoria Digital: Desafios na Era Big Data

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Uma das grandes responsabilidades da CGU é identificar as compras do governo com valores diferentes dos praticados pelo mercado. Dessa forma, é possível mensurar o grau de eficiência das compras realizadas pelos órgãos governamentais. Essa informação é útil tanto para o auditor, que é responsável por fiscalizar o uso dos recursos públicos, como para o gestor, que pode melhorar seus processos observando as melhores práticas de outras unidades do governo. Dada a enorme quantidade e a diversidade das compras realizadas pelo Governo, essa análise se torna praticamente inviável sem a ajuda de algum mecanismo automatizado. No entanto, para que essa análise automatizada seja possível, é preciso ter antes de tudo, uma base de dados com os preços médios, ou de referência, para cada produto que se deseja analisar. Apesar de todas as compras do Governo Federal serem inseridas em um sistema único e centralizado, as informações armazenadas não são detalhadas e estruturadas o suficiente para se calcular esses preços de referência. Essa palestra apresenta a metodologia desenvolvida na CGU, baseada em técnicas de mineração de dados, para extrair as informações necessárias desse sistema centralizado de forma a possibilitar o cálculo de preços de referência para produtos comprados pelo Governo Federal. Além disso, são apresentadas também algumas análises feitas com base no banco de preços criado a partir dessa metodologia de forma a enfatizar sua importância para a melhoria da gestão dos recursos públicos. Rommel Novaes Carvalho - Controladoria-Geral da União Coordenador-Geral do Observatório da Despesa Pública da CGU (http://www.cgu.gov.br/assuntos/informacoes-estrategicas/observatorio-da-despesa-publica), realizou seu PhD e Pós-Doc na George Mason University, EUA, na área de Inteligência Artificial, Web Semântica e Mineração de Dados e também é professor do Mestrado Profissional em Computação Aplicada da UnB

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Identificação automática de tipos de pedidos mais frequentes da LAI

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Presentation given by Rommel N. Carvalho at the 11th Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop (BMAW 2014) at the 30th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2014) in July 27, 2014, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada. This was a joint work between the Research and Strategic Information Directorate from Brazil's Office of the Comptroller General and the Department of Computer Science from the University of Brasília. Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVOsztdSQ3A Paper: http://seor.gmu.edu/~klaskey/BMAW2014/BMAW2014_papers/bmaw2014_paper_6.pdf Title: Using Bayesian Networks to Identify and Prevent Split Purchases in Brazil. Abstract: To cope with society's demand for transparency and corruption prevention, the Brazilian Office of the Comptroller General (CGU) has carried out a number of actions, including: awareness campaigns aimed at the private sector; campaigns to educate the public; research initiatives; and regular inspections and audits of municipalities and states. Although CGU has collected information from various different sources - Revenue Agency, Federal Police, and others -, going through all the data in order to find suspicious transactions has proven to be really challenging. In this paper, we present a Data Mining study applied on real data - government purchases - for finding transactions that might become irregular before they are considered as such in order to act proactively. Moreover, we compare the performance of various Bayesian Network (BN) learning algorithms with different parameters in order to fine tune the learned models and improve their performance. The best result was obtained using the Tree Augmented Network (TAN) algorithm and oversampling the minority class in order to balance the data set. Using a 10-fold cross-validation, the model correctly classified all split purchases, it obtained a ROC area of .999, and its accuracy was 99.197%.

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Presentation given by Rommel N. Carvalho at the 9th International Workshop on Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web at the 12th International Semantic Web Conference in October 21, 2013, Sydney, Australia. This was a joint work between the Research and Strategic Information Directorate from Brazil's Office of the Comptroller General and the Department of Computer Science from the University of Brasília. Title: A GUI for MLN. Abstract: This paper focuses on the incorporation of the Markov Logic Network (MLN) formalism as a plug-in for UnBBayes, a Java framework for probabilistic reasoning based on graphical models. MLN is a formalism for probabilistic reasoning which combines the capacity of dealing with uncertainty tolerating imperfections and contradictory knowledge based a Markov Network (MN) with the expressiveness of First Order Logic. A MLN provides a compact language for specifying very large MNs and the ability to incorporate, in modular form, large domain of knowledge (expressed in First Order Logic sentences) inside itself. A Graphical User Interface for the software Tuffy was implemented into UnBBayes to facilitate the creation, and inference of MLN models. Tuffy is a Java open source MLN engine.

A GUI for MLN

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Presentation given by Rommel N. Carvalho at the 9th International Workshop on Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web at the 12th International Semantic Web Conference in October 21, 2013, Sydney, Australia. This was a joint work between the Research and Strategic Information Directorate from Brazil's Office of the Comptroller General and the Department of Computer Science from the University of Brasília. Title: UMP-ST plug-in: a tool for documenting, maintaining, and evolving probabilistic ontologies. Abstract: Although several languages have been proposed for dealing with uncertainty in the Semantic Web (SW), almost no support has been given to ontological engineers on how to create such probabilistic ontologies (PO). This task of modeling POs has proven to be extremely difficult and hard to replicate. This paper presents the first tool in the world to implement a process which guides users in modeling POs, the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technologies (UMP-ST). The tool solves three main problems: the complexity in creating POs; the difficulty in maintaining and evolving existing POs; and the lack of a centralized tool for documenting POs. Besides presenting the tool, which is implemented as a plug-in for UnBBayes, this papers also presents how the UMP-ST plug-in could have been used to build the Probabilistic Ontology for Procurement Fraud Detection and Prevention in Brazil, a proof-of-concept use case created as part of a research project at the Brazilian Office of the Comptroller General (CGU).

URSW 2013 - UMP-ST plug-in

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Apresentação preparada por Rommel N. Carvalho e apresentada pela Diretora de Sistemas e Informações da Controladoria-Geral da União (CGU), Tatiana Z. Panisset, na reunião da Comissão de Meio Ambiente, Defesa do Consumidor e Fiscalização e Controle (CMA) do Senado Federal (SF). A reunião teve como foco o debate da unificação da entrada de dados dos Portais de Transparência da Copa de 2014 do SF (www.copatransparente.gov.br) e da CGU (http://transparencia.gov.br/copa2014). Mais informações sobre a reunião em http://goo.gl/KCBD6. As alternativas apresentadas foram discutidas e deliberadas pela CMA com aprovação da colaboração oficial entre o poder Legislativo e o poder Executivo para executar a integração da entrada de dados dos respectivos portais da copa do mundo. Notícias sobre essa colaboração podem ser encontradas em goo.gl/N8cbr, goo.gl/RVMGd, goo.gl/Ze3uJ, goo.gl/6o7BZ e goo.gl/C1CFv.

Integração do Portal da Copa @ Comissão CMA do Senado Federal

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Título: O que é e como usar dados abertos governamentais Resumo: A Web Semântica visa associar os dados disponibilizados na Web aos seus significados de forma a possibilitar que esses dados sejam compreensíveis tanto por humanos quanto por máquinas. Isso permitirá que tarefas, antes realizadas apenas por humanos, possam agora ser delegadas a máquinas. Técnicas de Web Semântica têm se difundido com o significativo aumento no número de aplicações que fazem uso de ontologias e semântica através de tecnologias como RDF, OWL, dentre outras, e as várias iniciativas espalhadas pelo mundo referente à disponibilização de dados abertos, em especial, de dados abertos governamentais. Dados abertos governamentais são definidos pela W3C – Consórcio da Web, como “a publicação e disseminação na Web de dados gerados pelo Setor Público, compartilhados em formato bruto e aberto, compreensíveis logicamente, de modo a permitir sua reutilização em aplicações digitais desenvolvidas pela sociedade”. O objetivo dessa palestra é apresentar os principais conceitos que norteiam as diversas iniciativas de dados abertos governamentais, a situação atual dessa iniciativa no Brasil, os benefícios que essa iniciativa traz para a sociedade como o uso desses dados abertos para contribuir com a melhoria e transparência da gestão pública. Palestrante: Dr. Rommel Novaes Carvalho, Ph.D Postdoctoral Research Associate – C4I Center @ GMU Analista de Finanças e Controle – CGU http://mason.gmu.edu/~rcarvalh CV resumido: Rommel Novaes Carvalho é bacharel em Ciência da Computação e Mestre em Informática pela Universidade de Brasília, e doutor em Engenharia de Sistemas e Pesquisa Operacional pela Universidade George Mason, Estados Unidos. Pesquisador em Inteligência Artificial (IA) e membro do Grupo de Pesquisa em Inteligência Artificial da Universidade de Brasília (GIA). Suas áreas de interesse abrangem representação e raciocínio com incerteza na Web Semântica usando inferência bayesiana, mineração de dados, e engenharia de software. Desenvolvedor Java certificado, com experiência em implementação de sistemas de redes probabilísticas, sendo o arquiteto principal do projeto UnBBayes – Framework para raciocino probabilístico, em desenvolvimento pelo GIA desde 2000. Em seu doutorado propôs e implementou a versão 2 para o PR-OWL – Probabilistic OWL, para permitir o reuso de ontologias determinísticas existentes, sua interoperabilidade com ontologias probabilísticas representadas em PR-OWL, e raciocínio misto ontológico e probabilístico. Desde 2005 trabalha na Controladoria-Geral da União como especialista em Tecnologia da Informação. Em 2011, tornou-se pesquisador associado de Pós-Doutorado na George Mason University.

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Oral Defense of Doctoral Dissertation Volgenau School of Engineering, George Mason University Rommel Novaes Carvalho Bachelor of Science, University of Brasília, Brazil, 2003 Master of Science, University of Brasília, Brazil, 2008 Probabilistic Ontology: Representation and Modeling Methodology Tuesday, June 28, 2011, 2:00pm -- 4:00pm Nguyen Engineering Building, Room 4705 Committee Kathryn Laskey, Chair Paulo Costa Kuo-Chu Chang David Schum Larry Kerschberg Fabio Cozman Abstract The past few years have witnessed an increasingly mature body of research on the Semantic Web (SW), with new standards being developed and more complex problems being addressed. As complexity increases in SW applications, so does the need for principled means to cope with uncertainty in SW applications. Several approaches addressing uncertainty representation and reasoning in the SW have emerged. Among these is Probabilistic Web Ontology Language (PR-OWL), which provides Web Ontology Language (OWL) constructs for representing Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) theories. However, there are several important ways in which the initial version PR-OWL 1.0 fails to achieve full compatibility with OWL. Furthermore, although there is an emerging literature on ontology engineering, little guidance is available on the construction of probabilistic ontologies. This research proposes a new syntax and semantics, defined as PR-OWL 2.0, which improves compatibility between PR-OWL and OWL in two important respects. First, PR-OWL 2.0 follows the approach suggested by Poole et al. to formalizing the association between random variables from probabilistic theories with the individuals, classes and properties from ontological languages such as OWL. Second, PR-OWL 2.0 allows values of random variables to range over OWL datatypes. To address the lack of support for probabilistic ontology engineering, this research describes a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies called Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technologies (UMP-ST). To better explain the methodology and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this dissertation presents step-by-step constructions of two different probabilistic ontologies. One is used for identifying frauds in public procurements in Brazil and the other is used for identifying terrorist threats in the maritime domain. Both use cases demonstrate the advantages of PR-OWL 2.0 over its predecessor.

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Presentation given by Tomasz Wlodarczyk at the 6th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 9th International Semantic Web Conference in 2010. Paper: SWRL-F - A Fuzzy Logic Extension of the Semantic Web Rule Language Abstract: Enhancing Semantic Web technologies with an ability to express uncertainty and imprecision is widely discussed topic. While SWRL can provide additional expressivity to OWL-based ontologies, it does not provide any way to handle uncertainty or imprecision. We introduce an extension of SWRL called SWRL-F that is based on SWRL rule language and uses SWRL's strong semantic foundation as its formal underpinning. We extend it with a SWRL-F ontology to enable fuzzy reasoning in the rule base. The resulting language provides small but powerful set of fuzzy operations that do not introduce inconsistencies in the host ontology.

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Presentation given by Thomas Scharrenbach at the 6th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 9th International Semantic Web Conference in 2010. Paper: Default Logics for Plausible Reasoning with Controversial Axioms Abstract: Using a variant of Lehmann's Default Logics and Probabilistic Description Logics we recently presented a framework that invalidates those unwanted inferences that cause concept unsatisfiability without the need to remove explicitly stated axioms. The solutions of this methods were shown to outperform classical ontology repair w.r.t. the number of inferences invalidated. However, conflicts may still exist in the knowledge base and can make reasoning ambiguous. Furthermore, solutions with a minimal number of inferences invalidated do not necessarily minimize the number of conflicts. In this paper we provide an overview over finding solutions that have a minimal number of conflicts while invalidating as few inferences as possible. Specifically, we propose to evaluate solutions w.r.t. the quantity of information they convey by recurring to the notion of entropy and discuss a possible approach towards computing the entropy w.r.t. an ABox.

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Presentation given by Fernando Bobillo at the 6th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 9th International Semantic Web Conference in 2010. Paper: Tractability of the Crisp Representations of Tractable Fuzzy Description Logics Abstract: An important line of research within the field of fuzzy DLs is the computation of an equivalent crisp representation of a fuzzy ontology. In this short paper, we discuss the relation between tractable fuzzy DLs and tractable crisp representations. This relation heavily depends on the family of fuzzy operators considered.

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Presentation given by Saminda Abeyruwan at the 6th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 9th International Semantic Web Conference in November 7, 2010. Paper: PrOntoLearn: Unsupervised Lexico-Semantic Ontology Generation using Probabilistic Methods Abstract: Formalizing an ontology for a domain manually is well-known as a tedious and cumbersome process. It is constrained by the knowledge acquisition bottleneck. Therefore, researchers developed algorithms and systems that can help to automatize the process. Among them are systems that include text corpora for the acquisition. Our idea is also based on vast amount of text corpora. Here, we provide a novel unsupervised bottom-up ontology generation method. It is based on lexico-semantic structures and Bayesian reasoning to expedite the ontology generation process. We provide a quantitative and two qualitative results illustrating our approach using a high throughput screening assay corpus and two custom text corpora. This process could also provide evidence for domain experts to build ontologies based on top-down approaches.

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Presentation given by Rommel Carvalho at the 6th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 9th International Semantic Web Conference in November 7, 2010. Paper: PR-OWL 2.0 - Bridging the gap to OWL semantics Abstract: The past few years have witnessed an increasingly mature body of research on the Semantic Web, with new standards being developed and more complex use cases being proposed and explored. As complexity increases in SW applications, so does the need for principled means to cope with uncertainty inherent to real world SW applications. Not surprisingly, several approaches addressing uncertainty representation and reasoning on the Semantic Web have emerged [3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14]. For example, PR-OWL [3] provides OWL constructs for representing Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) [8] theories. This paper reviews some shortcomings of PR-OWL 1 [2] and describes how they will be addressed in PR-OWL 2. A method is presented for mapping back and forth from triples into random variables (RV). The method applies to triples representing both predicates and functions. A complex example is given for mapping an n-ary relation using the proposed schematic.

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UnBBayes is a probabilistic network framework written in Java. It has both a GUI and an API with inference, sampling, learning and evaluation. It supports BN, ID, MSBN, OOBN, HBN, MEBN/PR-OWL, PRM, structure, parameter and incremental learning. This presentation talks about UnBBayes-PRM, a plugin for UnBBayes that has a simple implementation of Probabilistic Relational Models. This presentation was given by Shou Matsumoto from the University of Brasilia in Brazil via web conference to PhD students at George Mason University in the US on the Friday seminar called Krypton (http://krypton.c4i.gmu.edu/) in October 29, 2010.

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Presentation given by Rommel Carvalho at the 5th Uncertainty Reasoning for the Semantic Web Workshop at the 8th International Semantic Web Conference in 2009. Paper: Probabilistic Ontology and Knowledge Fusion for Procurement Fraud Detection in Brazil Abstract: To cope with society’s demand for transparency and corruption prevention, the Brazilian Federal General Comptroller (CGU) has carried out a number of actions, including: awareness campaigns aimed at the private sector; campaigns to educate the public; research initiatives; and regular inspections and audits of municipalities and states. Although CGU has collected information from hundreds of different sources - Revenue Agency, Federal Police, and others - the process of fusing all this data has not been efficient enough to meet the needs of CGU’s decision makers. Therefore, it is natural to change the focus from data fusion to knowledge fusion. As a consequence, traditional syntactic methods must be augmented with techniques that represent and reason with the semantics of databases. However, commonly used approaches fail to deal with uncertainty, a dominant characteristic in corruption prevention. This paper presents the use of Probabilistic OWL (PR-OWL) to design and test a model that performs information fusion to detect possible frauds in procurements involving Federal money. To design this model, a recently developed tool for creating PR-OWL ontologies was used with support from PR-OWL specialists and careful guidance from a fraud detection specialist from CGU.

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It takes money to make things happen. Money enables you to hire craftsmen, build advocacy campaigns, purchase materials and equipment, and much more. Asking for funding doesn’t have to be a daunting challenge, though. No matter your approach, there is one universal truth about fundraising: People give because someone asked them. This toolkit provides you with some fundamental steps for fundraising. If you can put these basics into practice, then you will increase your chances of turning an ask into financial support for your great preservation work.

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IEA publication, May 2024 Critical minerals, which are essential for a range of clean energy technologies, have risen up the policy agenda in recent years due to increasing demand, volatile price movements, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns. The dynamic nature of the market necessitates greater transparency and reliable information to facilitate informed decision-making, as underscored by the request from Group of Seven (G7) ministers for the IEA to produce medium- and long-term outlooks for critical minerals. The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 follows the IEA’s inaugural review of the market last year. It provides a snapshot of industry developments in 2023 and early 2024 and offers medium- and long-term outlooks for the demand and supply of key energy transition minerals based on the latest technology and policy trends. The report also assesses key risks to the reliability, sustainability and diversity of critical mineral supply chains and analyses the consequences for policy and industry stakeholders. It will be accompanied by an updated version of the Critical Minerals Data Explorer, an interactive online tool that allows users to explore the latest IEA projections.

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