A Personal Case Study Peter N. Jarich, Service Director November 2009 Why I Still Don’t Have a Femtocell
Agenda <ul><li>Who I Am </li></ul><ul><li>Why I Don’t Have a Femtocell...Yet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>nascent offers </li></u...
Who Am I: The Jarich Household
Who Am I: The Jarich Household
Who Am I: Why I’m A Femto Candidate
Why No Femto: Nascent Offers <ul><li>2.1 Offers </li></ul><ul><li>No 3G For Me </li></ul><ul><li>Nothing in My Set-top </l...
Why No Femto: Value of Coverage? Source: Verizon Wireless
Why No Femto: Value of Coverage?
Why No Femto: Value of Capacity? <ul><li>how much capacity do I need? </li></ul><ul><li>function of coverage </li></ul><ul...
Why No Femto: Value of Capacity? <ul><li>how much capacity do I need? </li></ul><ul><li>function of coverage </li></ul><ul...
Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice? <ul><li>How much voice do I use? </li></ul><ul><li>How much voice do I pay for? </li><...
Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice? <ul><li>How much voice do I use? </li></ul><ul><li>How much voice do I pay for? </li><...
Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice? <ul><li>How much voice do I use? </li></ul><ul><li>How much voice do I pay for? </li><...
Why No Femto: Enterprise on Hold <ul><li>No Shortage of Solutions </li></ul><ul><li>No Shortage of Architectures </li></ul...
Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations <ul><ul><li>growth just a few years away </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>driven by t...
Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations <ul><li>Market Timing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ unit shipments expected to grow 10-fo...
Why No Femto: X-Femto Confusion <ul><li>Nobody Will Deny </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the 3G cell-edge problem </li></ul></ul><ul...
Takeaways: Segmenting Today’s Holdups <ul><li>Supply </li></ul><ul><ul><li>limited offers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>form ...
Takeaways: Marketing, Really? <ul><li>“ let’s talk about coverage…” </li></ul><ul><li>“… and our big plans for tomorrow.” ...
Takeaways: Today’s Strategy <ul><ul><li>coverage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>retention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>do-it-you...
Takeaways: The Way Forward <ul><li>Current Model Is Not Sustainable </li></ul><ul><ul><li>niche marketing may deliver ROI ...
<ul><ul><li>Competitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>levels the playing field… </l...
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Why I Still Don't Have A Femtocell

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Presentation from Avren's Femtocell America's 2009 Conference.

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Why I Still Don't Have A Femtocell

  1. 1. A Personal Case Study Peter N. Jarich, Service Director November 2009 Why I Still Don’t Have a Femtocell
  2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>Who I Am </li></ul><ul><li>Why I Don’t Have a Femtocell...Yet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>nascent offers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>no need for coverage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>no need for capacity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>no need for cheap voice </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>nascent enterprise development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>never coming to my office </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>over-sold expectations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>x-femto confusion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>operators don’t need me </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Takeaways & Friends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>how the industry can get one into my hands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>building on today’s successes </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Who Am I: The Jarich Household
  4. 4. Who Am I: The Jarich Household
  5. 5. Who Am I: Why I’m A Femto Candidate
  6. 6. Why No Femto: Nascent Offers <ul><li>2.1 Offers </li></ul><ul><li>No 3G For Me </li></ul><ul><li>Nothing in My Set-top </li></ul><ul><li>Wouldn’t Even Know They Existed if I Wasn’t In The Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Understandable Explorations </li></ul>
  7. 7. Why No Femto: Value of Coverage? Source: Verizon Wireless
  8. 8. Why No Femto: Value of Coverage?
  9. 9. Why No Femto: Value of Capacity? <ul><li>how much capacity do I need? </li></ul><ul><li>function of coverage </li></ul><ul><li>help is on the way... </li></ul>
  10. 10. Why No Femto: Value of Capacity? <ul><li>how much capacity do I need? </li></ul><ul><li>function of coverage </li></ul><ul><li>help is on the way... </li></ul>@pnjarich
  11. 11. Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice? <ul><li>How much voice do I use? </li></ul><ul><li>How much voice do I pay for? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>mobile-to-mobile </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>calling circle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>nights & weekends </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Big Buckets and All You Can Eat </li></ul>Source: Boost Mobile
  12. 12. Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice? <ul><li>How much voice do I use? </li></ul><ul><li>How much voice do I pay for? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>mobile-to-mobile </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>calling circle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>nights & weekends </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Big Buckets and All You Can Eat </li></ul>Source: metroPCS
  13. 13. Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice? <ul><li>How much voice do I use? </li></ul><ul><li>How much voice do I pay for? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>mobile-to-mobile </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>calling circle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>nights & weekends </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Big Buckets and All You Can Eat </li></ul>Source: T-Mobile
  14. 14. Why No Femto: Enterprise on Hold <ul><li>No Shortage of Solutions </li></ul><ul><li>No Shortage of Architectures </li></ul><ul><li>No Shortage of Will? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>managed mobile success? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>what size enterprise? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>all a metro-femto ploy? </li></ul></ul>Source: AirWalk Communications Source: Airvana Source: SpiderCloud
  15. 15. Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations <ul><ul><li>growth just a few years away </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>driven by tech </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>driven by operator demands </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>driven by more and more users per femto </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>standard five-year hockey stick </li></ul></ul>none lots
  16. 16. Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations <ul><li>Market Timing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ unit shipments expected to grow 10-fold from 2007 to 2008…” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ 2008 will be THE year for femto launches…” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ 100+ million users by 2011…” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ the enterprise will pick up fastest, given the uncertain timing and cost-constraints of the residential space…” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ecosystem </li></ul><ul><ul><li>consumer electronics trajectory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>silicon trajectory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>application trajectory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>network standards trajectory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… all of which was downplayed </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Why No Femto: X-Femto Confusion <ul><li>Nobody Will Deny </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the 3G cell-edge problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the importance of spatial efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>operator interest in metro-femto deployment models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the importance of the Femto Forum’s “Class” designations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Timing is Another Issue </li></ul><ul><ul><li>it’s not a place to start </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LTE preoccupation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>how ready is the tech? </li></ul></ul>Remember This?
  18. 18. Takeaways: Segmenting Today’s Holdups <ul><li>Supply </li></ul><ul><ul><li>limited offers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>form factor diversity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>tech worries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>tech options </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>market investigations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>sales investigations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>unreasonable expectations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>bigger priorities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demand </li></ul><ul><ul><li>cheap voice is not enough </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>better coverage is not enough </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>better data capacity is not enough </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>marketing isn’t there… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… and it’s not just about the newness of the market </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Takeaways: Marketing, Really? <ul><li>“ let’s talk about coverage…” </li></ul><ul><li>“… and our big plans for tomorrow.” </li></ul>Source: www.vzw.com
  20. 20. Takeaways: Today’s Strategy <ul><ul><li>coverage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>retention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>do-it-yourself </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>niche…at best </li></ul></ul>
  21. 21. Takeaways: The Way Forward <ul><li>Current Model Is Not Sustainable </li></ul><ul><ul><li>niche marketing may deliver ROI to operators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>it will not drive market scale </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Drive Supply </li></ul><ul><ul><li>operators need to see this as strategic / not tactical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>operators need to know the tech issues are solved (almost) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>operators need to know that WiFi isn’t coming to feature phones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>build on successes – technical and business </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Drive Demand </li></ul><ul><ul><li>need tariff innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>need aspirations & applications </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Do Not Underestimate The Window </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WiFi is making headway </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LTE: friend vs. foe </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>apps are coming, with or without femto </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. <ul><ul><li>Competitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>levels the playing field… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Current Analysis is the only competitive research firm that provides solutions to improve your company’s Competitive Response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>[ Competitive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Response ] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>enables you to </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Win. </li></ul></ul>
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