Why I Still Don't Have A Femtocell

A Personal Case Study Peter N. Jarich, Service Director November 2009 Why I Still Don’t Have a Femtocell

Agenda
Who I Am
Why I Don’t Have a Femtocell...Yet
nascent offers
no need for coverage
no need for capacity
no need for cheap voice
nascent enterprise development
never coming to my office
over-sold expectations
x-femto confusion
operators don’t need me
Takeaways & Friends
how the industry can get one into my hands
building on today’s successes

Who Am I: The Jarich Household

Who Am I: Why I’m A Femto Candidate

Why No Femto: Nascent Offers
2.1 Offers
No 3G For Me
Nothing in My Set-top
Wouldn’t Even Know They Existed if I Wasn’t In The Industry
Understandable Explorations

Why No Femto: Value of Coverage? Source: Verizon Wireless

Why No Femto: Value of Coverage?

Why No Femto: Value of Capacity?
how much capacity do I need?
function of coverage
help is on the way...

Why No Femto: Value of Capacity?
how much capacity do I need?
function of coverage
help is on the way...
@pnjarich

Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice?
How much voice do I use?
How much voice do I pay for?
mobile-to-mobile
calling circle
nights & weekends
Big Buckets and All You Can Eat
Source: Boost Mobile

mobile-to-mobile
calling circle
nights & weekends
Source: metroPCS

mobile-to-mobile
calling circle
nights & weekends
Source: T-Mobile

Why No Femto: Enterprise on Hold
No Shortage of Solutions
No Shortage of Architectures
No Shortage of Will?
managed mobile success?
what size enterprise?
all a metro-femto ploy?
Source: AirWalk Communications Source: Airvana Source: SpiderCloud

Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations
growth just a few years away
driven by tech
driven by operator demands
driven by more and more users per femto
standard five-year hockey stick
none lots

Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations
Market Timing
“ unit shipments expected to grow 10-fold from 2007 to 2008…”
“ 2008 will be THE year for femto launches…”
“ 100+ million users by 2011…”
“ the enterprise will pick up fastest, given the uncertain timing and cost-constraints of the residential space…”
Ecosystem
consumer electronics trajectory
silicon trajectory
application trajectory
network standards trajectory
… all of which was downplayed

Why No Femto: X-Femto Confusion
Nobody Will Deny
the 3G cell-edge problem
the importance of spatial efficiency
operator interest in metro-femto deployment models
the importance of the Femto Forum’s “Class” designations
Timing is Another Issue
it’s not a place to start
LTE preoccupation
how ready is the tech?
Remember This?

Takeaways: Segmenting Today’s Holdups
Supply
limited offers
form factor diversity
tech worries
tech options
market investigations
sales investigations
unreasonable expectations
bigger priorities
Demand
cheap voice is not enough
better coverage is not enough
better data capacity is not enough
marketing isn’t there…
… and it’s not just about the newness of the market

Takeaways: Marketing, Really?
“ let’s talk about coverage…”
“… and our big plans for tomorrow.”
Source: www.vzw.com

Takeaways: Today’s Strategy
coverage
retention
do-it-yourself
niche…at best

Takeaways: The Way Forward
Current Model Is Not Sustainable
niche marketing may deliver ROI to operators
it will not drive market scale
Drive Supply
operators need to see this as strategic / not tactical
operators need to know the tech issues are solved (almost)
operators need to know that WiFi isn’t coming to feature phones
build on successes – technical and business
Drive Demand
need tariff innovation
need aspirations & applications
Do Not Underestimate The Window
WiFi is making headway
LTE: friend vs. foe
apps are coming, with or without femto

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Why I Still Don't Have A Femtocell

by pnjarich on Nov 17, 2009

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