BC Protected Area Research Forum Presentation


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This is the presentation I gave in January 2008 at the BC Protected Area Research Forum showcasing my Masters Research.

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  • Options to also explore trends in a given area, as expected from downscaled GCM projections (not a major component)
  • The future forest can also expect to deal with a decidedly different climatic setting. The models vary, but their resolution and consistency is increasing – while the biogeoclimatic zones can’t be expected to move in lockstep over the region, their climatic envelopes or potentials will certainly move. Note how the climate of the Interior Plateau, now this purple Sub-Boreal Spruce, can be expected to take on the yellow and green intermix of dry-belt and wet-belt Interior Douglas-Fir and Interior Cedar-Hemlock forests now occupying the Cariboo and Kootenays.
  • BC Protected Area Research Forum Presentation

    1. 1. Using Bioclimatic Envelopes to Identify Temporal Corridors in Support of Conservation Planning in a Changing Climate Nancy-Anne Rose 1 Philip J. Burton 1,2 1 University of Northern British Columbia 2 Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada 3333 University Way, Prince George, British Columbia, Canada V2N 4Z9
    2. 2. Objectives <ul><li>To evaluate the likely persistence (continuity) of conservation targets under climate change </li></ul><ul><li>To identify geographical priorities in the development of the Nature Conservancy of Canada’s Central Interior conservation plan </li></ul>
    3. 3. www.y2y.net/science/ An analogy: corridors in time, like corridors in space, are needed to provide connectivity Spatial connectivity: – should allow migration south  north and low  high elevation
    4. 4. Central Interior Study Area http://science.natureconservancy.ca/centralinterior/central.php
    5. 5. Conservation Area Design and Gap Analysis
    6. 6. Richness of Plant & Animal Species Stewardship Areas (i.e. Protected Areas) GAPS A Simple Gap Analysis for BC (courtesy of Dr. Geoff Scudder, UBC)
    7. 7. Climate Change: An Inconvenient Truth
    8. 8. Expected Climate Change: (based on CGCM2 model output) (Hamann & Wang 2006)
    9. 9. The Problem For Biodiversity Conservation Planning: <ul><li>Existing parks and protected areas may no longer be able to support the species, habitats and values for which they were designated. </li></ul><ul><li>Can we use existing inventories and climate projection tools to identify candidate areas with better prospect for stability … for “connectivity” over time? </li></ul>
    10. 10. An approach based on current distributions -Bioclimatic Envelopes <ul><li>Hutchinson’s niche theory: Fundamental and realized niche </li></ul><ul><li>Conceptual or functional space, defined on multiple axes (hypervolume) </li></ul><ul><li>Envelope represent a climatic niche </li></ul>
    11. 11. Methods – Step 1 <ul><li>Compile information on current distribution (latitude, longitude, elevation) for: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rare plant species (74) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>terrestrial ecosystem units (31) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>biogeoclimatic variants (105) </li></ul></ul>1050 -97.46 48.47 MSdk1 11 1300 -114.25 55.40 MSdk1 10 1276 -118.51 48.55 MSdk1 9 1200 -117.28 60.74 MSdk1 8 1135 -122.5 50.1 TEU 4 7 1301 -136.28 50.47 TEU 4 6 1230 -121.9 48.77 TEU 4 5 1200 -105.54 48.688 TEU 4 4 19 -99.247 51.25 SALIBOO 3 54 -127.68 55.25 SALIBOO 2 12 -123.25 49.255 SALIBOO 1 elev long lat Target ID1
    12. 12. ClimateBC/PP Attributes <ul><li>MAT - mean annual temperature </li></ul><ul><li>MWMT - mean warmest month temperature </li></ul><ul><li>MCMT - mean coldest month temperature </li></ul><ul><li>TD - temperature difference between MCMT and MWMT (continentality) </li></ul><ul><li>MAP - mean annual precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>MSP - mean summer precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>AH:M - annual heat moisture index </li></ul><ul><li>SH:M - summer heat moisture index </li></ul><ul><li>DD<0 - degree days below 0C </li></ul><ul><li>DD>5 - degree days above 5C </li></ul><ul><li>DD5-100 - Julian date on which DD>5 reaches 100 </li></ul><ul><li>DD<18 - degree days below 18C </li></ul><ul><li>DD>18 - degree days above 18C </li></ul><ul><li>NFFD - number of frost-free days </li></ul><ul><li>FFP - frost-free period </li></ul><ul><li>bFFP - beginning of the frost-free period (Julian date) </li></ul><ul><li>eFFP - end of the frost-free period (Julian date) </li></ul><ul><li>PAS - precipitation as snow </li></ul><ul><li>EXT - extreme minimum temperature </li></ul>
    13. 13. Methods – Step 2 <ul><li>Run ClimateBC* or ClimatePP* climate interpolation tool </li></ul><ul><li>*freely downloadable from www.ales2.ualberta.ca/RR/people/hamann/climate </li></ul>
    14. 14. Methods – Step 3 11000 011 1 0 010 11 00101 000 1 1 000 11 11111 010 1 1 101 11 00110 111 1 0 001 11 Current 2020 2050 2080
    15. 15. Identification of Temporal Corridor <ul><li>00000 </li></ul><ul><li>000 1 0 </li></ul><ul><li>000 11 </li></ul>Points are identified at the same climate will persist over time (~75 years)
    16. 16. The Interior Douglas-Fir Biogeoclimatic Zone “ collapsing the 4 th dimension”
    17. 17. Temporal Corridors for the BC Biogeoclimatic Zones Expect to see sufficient climate stability over the next 75 years to sustain currently recognized climax forest types in some areas but not others.
    18. 18. Temporal Corridor locations compared to current protected areas
    19. 19. Salix boothii (Booth’s willow) Nephroma occultum (Cryptic Paw)
    20. 20. North Pacific Interior Lodgepole Pine – Douglas-fir Woodland and Forest
    21. 21. ICHmc2 (Interior Cedar Hemlock moist cool)
    22. 22. Uncertainty Analysis <ul><li>Variation in GCM scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Take mean, sample from distribution, or just accept latest greatest CGCM3 with A2 scenario? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Variation in number of calibration data points or current range documentation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Weight accordingly? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Variation in number of possible 19 ClimateBC attributes met </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Weight accordingly or narrow field to most significant, parsimonious subset? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Preference given to entire climatic range or just core range </li></ul><ul><ul><li>With different definitions, in order of increasing confidence, (100, 95, 67, 50 percentiles) of core range? </li></ul></ul>
    23. 23. Applications and Conclusions <ul><li>Preliminary results suggest large impacts for many plant species, communities, and ecosystems in central B.C. </li></ul><ul><li>Help focus conservation priorities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>to locations where we can expect continuity of the bioclimatic envelopes target elements </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Temporal corridors - a conceptually simple but powerful tool </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pre-processing data layer in reserve selection processes such as MARXAN </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Thanks! <ul><li>Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Research Cluster at UNBC </li></ul><ul><li>Ping Bai, GIS Specialist (UNBC) </li></ul><ul><li>The Central Interior Ecoregional Assessment Team (The Nature Conservancy of Canada) </li></ul><ul><li>NSERC, Forest Investment Account and UNBC </li></ul>
    25. 25. Advantages of bioclimatic envelope modelling (BEM) <ul><li>BEM is applied at a scale where climate is the dominant influence </li></ul><ul><li>Only means of assessing the potential magnitude of change </li></ul><ul><li>Useful first filter for identifying locations and species at risk from climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-effective (field surveys to assess distributions can be prohibitive) </li></ul><ul><li>Can provide the only method of estimating current and future distribution of poorly known species </li></ul><ul><li>Suitable for presence-only occurrence data </li></ul><ul><li>Must be applied and interpreted with an understanding of the limitations </li></ul>
    26. 26. <ul><li>Spatial corridors are intended to provide population connectivity: </li></ul><ul><li>gene flow to maintain genetic diversity </li></ul><ul><li>rescue of extirpated populations </li></ul><ul><li>follow needed habitat as it shifts over time </li></ul>(From Van Dyke 2003)