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Mirco Vassallo
DIEC | Economics of Cruise, Ferry and Yachting Industries (cod. 102487)
a.a. 2020 – 2021
Cruise industry
Market, players and business drivers
2
A passion for cruises.
The speaker
• Born in Genoa in 1975.
• Graduate at University of Genoa on July 1999 with a final
assignment on «Local economic impact of passenger ports».
• Prior experiences at as Public Transport Consultant, Telco
Accounting, different roles in Sales and Marketing.
• Joined Costa Crociere in April 2013 as Head of Worldwide
CRM and Direct marketing.
• Currently Italy Direct and Online Sales Director.
• For more info: www.linkedin.com/in/mircovassallo
3
Cruise industry is “tricky” business: we are going to go deeper on the main drivers of the “game”.
Introduction
• Global market
• Capital intensive and labor intensive industry
• Almost based on fixed costs and long term industrial plan
• Constantly influenced by external factors (eg. Macroeconomics factors)
• Very low market penetration
• Maritime and/or Tour Operator
• Human resources are a key success factor both onboard and ashore but digitalization is a “must” in
the next future
... but nowadays cruise industry is facing pandemic Covid-19 with a unique certain:
uncertainty
4
A.A. 2020 -2021 - Fourth edition program
• 19th October, Monday - 15:00 > 16:45
Lesson #1 - videocall
Market, player, competition.
• 20th October, Tuesday - 15:00 > 16:45
Lesson #2 - videocall
Business driver and trends
• 3rd November, Tuesday - 15:00 > 16:45
Lesson #3 – at University
Current scenario: what’s future for the cruise industry?
Let's discuss about it with a Top Manager
Cruise Industry Workshop
5
• Task: Imagine you have to manage a start-up in the cruise industry 2021 early beginning with no budget/timing
constraint. You can have ships (newbuilding or second hand ones) and you can design your ideal experience
(onboard and ashore). Present the market your plan to reach break-even: ship features, deployment, itineraries,
ALBD (capacity/offer), product, markets, targets according to the post Covid-19 scenario. Feel free to defend
your ideas on the base of clear rationales and assumptions. Include – if you found it – readings and sources.
• Objective: demonstrate to manage key factors and business drivers that affect cruise company life in short and
long period.
• Way of work: group of 4/5 participants or individual assignment [group is a plus].
• Output: *.doc not less than 1.000 / not more than 2.000 words or a video of 3 / 5 minutes [video is a plus].
• Please send your assignment via email to m.vassallo@libero.it and in copy to enrico.musso@unige.it
Assignment weight: up to 10 pp on final evaluation.
Assignment
6
Market, player, competition
• Cruise industry economic impact
• Global Deployment
• Global Demand
• Source Market and Destinations
• FOCUS: European markets
• FOCUS: Current orderbook
• Global player: market share and competition
Lesson #1
7
Before Covid-19 pandemic direct impact of Cruise industry was growing and trend was not
supposed to stop in the future.
Source: CLIA, 2018.
• Only in 2019 debuted 19 new cruise ships.
Cruise Industry Impact 2018
8
Cruise industry is generating a strong impact across the many economic activities involved.
Cruise Industry Economic Impact
Shipyard
activities
Cruising
activities
Crew and
guests
Cruise
providers
Engineers Architechts
Raw
materials
Technical
supplies
Hotel
supplies
Technical
supplies
Harbours
Goods &
Services
Food
Transports Excursions
Accomodations
CRUISE
COMPANY
9
A recent study of Deloitte, Genoa and Hamburg University highlights that only Costa Group
generated in 2018 a yearly economic impact of 12.6 billions of euro and over 63.000 jobs.
Source: “Creare Valore Condiviso”, 2018.
Costa group Economic impact and mkt share
53%
50%
47%
38%
28%
Costa Group Market Share
10
In 2019 more than 30 Million of guests are expected to cruise.
Source: CLIA 2018.
• Cruise industry was constantly growing with an average annual growth of 5.4% in the last ten years.
Global Market
11
Capacity: 537.000 lower berth in 2018. Besides the historical prevalence of Caribbean, European
areas (Med + North Europe) increased their relevance (28% global capacity).
Source: Cruise Market Watch, CLIA 2020.
Global Deployment 2018
Caribbean; 32,0%
Mediterranean;
17,0%Europe (no Med);
11,0%
Asia (w/China);
5,0%
China; 5,0%
Alaska; 5,0%
South America (no
Caribbean); 2,0%
Australia/ N. Zealand /
Pacific; 5,0%
Other; 17,0%
Deployment 2018 - % ALBD
12
Demand for cruises increase +13.2% in the last three years (2016-2018).
Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018.
• North America keep driving the growth (+9.4% vs. last year).
• Asia reduced speed di 2018.
Global Demand for cruises
13
Source: Cruise Market Watch, 2018.
Global Demand for cruises
14
Destinations and Source Markets are not completely overlapped.
Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018.
Source Market and Destinations
• What implications for
deployment?
• Ship: “flexible” ord “rigid”
asset ?
15
Pax breakdown by cruise days highlights 2 out of 3 are choosing a cruise between 4 and 7 days
whereas looking at the pax age we can observe as there is an high fragmentation.
Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018.
Cruise Pax breakdown by cruise days & age
Mainly first timers to be
retained and upgraded versus
longer products
Fundamental clusters to
ensure a sustainable growth
due to the willingness to
pay and desire of exploring
new destinations
16
Big variance between Europe and North America source market.
Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018.
Demand / Age and Cruise Length
17
Caribbean and Asia offer is generally based on “short cruises” < 7 days.
Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018.
Deployement / Age and Cruise Length
18
So far impressive order book. In 2027 the market is supposed to further grow
(+225k Lower Berth)
Source: Elaboration on “Cruise Ship Orderbook”, October, 2020
• 79 new ocean cruise ships included in
current orderbook
Orderbook
• Three types of cruise ships are being built: those for mass market, mainly larger ships of about
130,000t, luxury and upper premium ships of 40,000t-70,000t and more recently smaller ships
mainly dedicated to adventure, discovery or expedition cruising (Fincantieri, M. Cergol, 2018).
Year # ships Capacity (LB)
2020 3 4.964
2021 16 48.486
2022 18 52.256
2023 17 50.110
2024 9 27.830
2025 8 22.060
2026 5 10.160
2027 3 9.630
Total 79 225.496
19
Orderbook focused on mega-ships.
Source: Elaboration on “Cruise Ship Orderbook”, October, 2020
• Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean will keep growing.
• MSC will consolidate its global player role (3rd Cruise global player)
• A new player will enter the market (Virgin Cruises).
• Shipyards were “full booked” in the next years:
Orderbook
QUESTIONS:
• What about second hand and ship repairing market?
• Are older ships (>20 years old) going to be sold by big player ?
Year Fincantieri Chantiers CSSC
Meyer
Werft
Others
yards
Total
2020 2 1 3
2021 6 1 6 3 16
2022 6 4 6 2 18
2023 7 2 1 6 1 17
2024 4 2 1 1 1 9
2025 6 1 1 0 8
2026 5 0 0 5
2027 2 1 0 0 3
Total 38 11 2 20 8 79
>
200
150 -
200
125 -
150
80 -
125
50 -
80
< 50
Royal Caribbean 16 5 3 3 1 0 4
Celebrity 3 3
Royal Caribbean 6 5 1
Silversea 4 4
TUI Cruises 3 2 1
Carnival 15 9 4 2
AIDA Cruises 2 2
Carnival 2 2
Carnival China 2 2
Costa Cruises 2 1 1
Cunard Line 1 1
Holland America 1 1
P&O Cruises 2 2
Princess 3 2 1
MSC 12 4 4 4
NCL 8 0 0 6 0 2 0
Norwegian 6
Oceania 2
Disney 3 3
Virgin 3 3
Dream Cruises 2 2
Viking Ocean 10 10
Others 10 1 2 7
Total 79 11 16 16 7 18 11
ORDERBOOK BY
COMPANY / SHIP CLASS
(000 / Gross Tonnage)
20
Geography of the market might change.
Source: elaboration on Cruise Industry News, 2018.
• Cruise companies did not declare where they are going to deploy new capacity.
• Considering the current declaration China was supposed play a key role in the short term (40% of
new capacity)
• Europe is the second area for new deployment (25% of new capacity)
• What in the next future ? By 2024 25% of new capacity will be introduced in Europe where
competition will became “hard”.
Orderbook
Somma di Capacity Etichette di colonna
Etichette di riga Asia Carib China China​ Eur/Carib Europe World Totale complessivo
2020 4.232 732 4.964
2021 9.400 2.660 15.488 2.224 29.772
2022 280 5.000 5.448 5.158 15.886
2023 10.000 2.900 3.778 16.678
2024 5.000 2.230 7.230
Totale complessivo 280 9.400 24.232 5.448 2.660 18.388 14.122 74.530
21
European Cruise Market Penetration
How to sustain cruise demand in Europe?
5,0%
U.S.A.
5,0%
Australia
0,2%
China
22
European Markets grow +3,3% in 2018 up to 7,17M Passengers. Germany leads the growth
thanks also to its local brands.
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
European Cruise Market
• Germany leads the growth
thanks also to its local brands.
• UK/Ireland is reachs 2M
passenger volume in 2018.
• Italy is the most promising
market with the highest growth
in the main markets (+8%).
• Spain and France grow in line
with European avg.
• Russia is the most potential
market.
23
Key role of Western Med (42%) and Northern Europe (20%).
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
.
• Volume in the Mediterranean,
mostly Eastern Mediterranean,
is growing (+8%) together
other destinations such as
Northern Europe (+5%) and
Baltics (+9%).
European Destination
24
Germans cover every destinations with a relevant weight.
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
• English love Canary
islands and Caribbeans.
• Italians and French are
more focused on specific
destinations (Med and
Caribbean).
Volumes Per Key Destinations / Countries
QUESTIONS:
• How flights connections
impact on cruise
destinations?
25
Europe is a “seasonal” area and it is not only a “meteo” issue.
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
• Germans and English play a key role in “shoulder” seasons (Q1 and Q4).
Volumes per Quarters / Countries
26
There is a clear relationship between average age and cruise length.
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
• Older generations can
cruise for longer periods.
• Youngest cruisers are in
Italy while “oldest” ones
in Europe are in UK,
aligned with the longest
average cruise length.
Age and Cruise Length / Country
27
Med 7 days proposal in Mediterranean has a clear correlation with “younger” guests.
Source: CLIA Europe, 2018.
Age and Cruise Length / Destination
28
Germany is the largest source market in Europe with an all-time record number of 2.23 Million
passengers for 2018.
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
Germany
• The average cruise length shows a
marginal variation and is at 9.1
nights.
• Three out four German
passengers opted for a cruise in
European sailing regions.
• Germans have direct access to
Norther Europe itineraries which
represent the most important
destination.
• Local brands: Aida and TUI with
an increase of MSC for
international guests.
29
2M of British chose a cruise in 2018 (+2.0% vs. 17). On avg. British are the oldest cruisers and
travel a lot.
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
• The Mediterranean remains the
most popular cruise destination
for British cruise travelers, with
34.5% but with a decrease vs.
2017 (-6%).
• Cruises in Northern Europe rose
8% against 2017 figures: the
second most popular region for
British cruisers.
• Increase in popularity of colder-
climate destinations including
Canada, Alaska, and Antarctica.
• Popular brands: P&O but British
is an international and easy
traveller.
Great Britain & Ireland
30
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
Italy
Italian passengers have grown +8% in 2018 and represent the third European market.
• Italian market is the youngest in
Europe.
• Mediterranean 7 days is the
“destination” (73.5% of total
passengers).
• The biggest increase (+21%) is
recorded for short cruises (4 to 6
days).
• Popular brands: definitively a
duopoly Costa Crociere and MSC
Crociere.
31
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
France
France: a market that was supposed to grow more.
• “Accessibility” is on of the most
“constraint” for French growth.
• In 2017 closure of ‘Croisières de
France’, third largest provider
(with a unique proposal of all-
inclusive tailor-made cruises in
France) had a great impact on the
market figures.
• Caribbean is a specificity of the
market (Dom-Tom local market).
• Popular brands: mainly MSC and
Costa Croisieres.
32
Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
Spain
With its 530k passengers Spain is the fourth European market, young and ready to travel.
• Accelerated growth of 6.5% in
2017, and +3.9% in 2018
confirms cruising as one of
Spaniards preferred vacation
choices.
• Canary island and Eastern
Mediterranean show a growth
in 2018.
• Local brand: no more local
brand (Pullmantur-3 ships, not
still operating).
33
The 2018 total worldwide ocean cruise industry is estimated at $45.6 billion (a 4.6% increase
over 2017) with 26.0 million annualized.
Source: for further details, www.cruisemarketwatch.com.
• Carnival Corporation
• 10 brands
• 47,4% of passengers
• 39,4% of Revenues
• RCCL
• 6 brands
• 26,4% of Market Share
• 23,5% of Net Revenues
• Norwegian Cruise Line
• 3 brands
• 9,5% of Market Share
• 12,6% of Net Revenues
• MSC Cruises
• 1 brand
• 7,2% of Market Share
• 6,8% of Net Revenues
2018 Worldwide Cruise Line Market Share
34
Total worldwide ocean cruise capacity at the end of 2018 has been 537,000 passengers and 314
ships. Brand diversification is a common high-level strategy of corporations.
Source: for further details, www.cruisemarketwatch.com.
2018 Worldwide cruise line market share
35
High competitive environment but - considering the “penetration” of cruises - who are the real
competitors?
Competitors
Different
“Experience”
Tour Operator
Alternative cruise
option
First timers / Prospect
• Tour operator represent the main competitors to target.
Repeaters
36
In Europe there is big space to further grow for cruise companies.
Source: Costa Crociere spa.
• In Europe there will be a big focus of the main corporation to benefit of the complementarity with the Caribbean
area.
Cruise vs. Tour Operator
37
Business driver and trend
• Cruise company: organisational model and financial breakdown
• Brand competition and strategic ship allocation
• Key factors that affect demand
• Key drivers in decision making:
• Seasonality
• Deployment
• Itineraries
• Yield management
• Product
• Strategic and tactical pricing
• Marketing process
• Distribution implications
Lesson #2
38
Main scope: understand the main key success factors, key decisions and key business drivers.
Source: Graphics Cruise Market Watch.
• Cruise is one of the most dynamic tourism
and shipping sectors.
• The cruise market is characterized by high
concentration (Soriani, 2009) as there are
few but strong market players. This market
concentration has intensified the competition
among the players, which seek ways of
obtaining competitive advantage.
Cruise Market
In this context there are four main dimensions for competition, i.e. the ship, the time
of the cruise, the itinerary and the booking process (Papatheodorou, 2006).
39
Cross brands functions vs. line functions. Maritime vs. Hotel Operations.
• Maritime operations
• Fleet management
• Project / Ship building
• Purchasing
Cruise Company - Organizational Model
CROSS BRANDS /
CENTRAL
FUNCTIONS
BRAND / LINE
FUNCTIONS
• Sales & Marketing
• Yield management
• Hotel Operations
• Guest Experience
• Corporate Strategy
• Finance
• Project management
• Chief digital office
• Transportation
• HR
• Communication & PR
• Economies of scale doesn’t always justify a central governance. Importance of
“culture” and “knowledge of the market” are relevant key success factor.
40
Importance of onboard revenues. Acquisition costs are very relevant in the industry (Advertising
and commercial fee).
Source: Cruise Market Watch Statistics, 2018.
• Onboard revenues represent 28% of total
gross revenues
• Amortization / Depreciation affect
operating income
• Fuel is not fully “under control”
• Cost of acquisition are very high
SOME QUESTIONS:
• How sustaining ROIC?
• Ticket price and onboard revenues: which
correlation?
• Currency rate risk and deployment? Which
trade-off?
Financial Breakdown
Revenue Expenses %/spending
Ticket $1.293,00 72%
Onboard Spending $498,00 28%
-Casino & Bar $274,00
-Shore excursions (cruise line portion) $100,00
-Spa $50,00
-All other onboard spending $75,00
Total spending $1.791,00 100%
Other operating costs $260,00 14,5%
Agent commission $233,00 13,0%
Ship fuel costs $193,00 10,8%
Corporate Operating Costs $208,00 11,6%
Payroll $197,00 11,0%
Depreciation/Amortization $172,00 9,6%
Victualing (food) $107,00 6,0%
Onboard and other $77,00 4,3%
Other and transportation $59,00 3,3%
Interest Expense $56,00 3,1%
Total Expenses $1.562,00 87,2%
Profit before taxes $229,00 12,8%
Financial breakdown of typical cruiser
(worldwide, across all cruise lines)
41
Brand competition is a “virtuous” cycle also within the same corporation. Brands compete to
have assigned new ships.
New Ship
More
Capacity
Lower
Operative
Costs
Higher
NPS/prices
Higher OI
Brand competition
42
1 Project, 9 ships, 4 different Brands.
• Example of Carnival Excellence Project (first LNG mega ship)
• Yard: Meyer Werft
• AIDAnova is the name of the first ship of new XL Class
• 9 new ships on order by 2023: 3 for AIDA Cruises, 2 for Costa Cruises, 2 for P&O and 2 for
Carnival Cruise Line respectively.
New ship “Excellence Class”
43
Different set-up for different onboard experience.
• The decision of dimension and set-up affect not only the “product” but even the
“brand positioning” in the future.
Ships
Carnival “Fun Ship”
RCCL “Ship as a
destination”
DisneyCosta Crociere
44
The cruise company must “strictly” manage key factors to sustain and drive demand.
1. Own Price (P)
2. Prices of other goods (Po)
3. Income (I)
4. Tastes (T)
Factors that affect demand
Not possible to impact on Income/GDP.
What are the most profitable target and
countries?
Short term -> Advertising
Long term -> new Ship / Brand
positioning
Substitute product (high impact of
Package holidays for prospect and
price of competitors for repeaters)
Simple solution … not always the best solution!
45
Purchasing behavior: high differentiation by Source Market.
• Very different purchasing behavior within European countries.
• Northern Europeans are “early bookers” while in the South Europe there is still a
last minute effect.
• Which implication?
Booking Seasonality
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Booking Anticipation
South Europe Trend North Europe Trend
46
Price is different by season / destination / customers. A very complex “game”.
ASSUMPTIONS
• Different behaviors by customers
• Different behaviors by nationality
• Different Age by season
QUESTIONS:
• How a cruise company optimize
occupancy in shoulder seasons?
• How a cruise company optimize pricing
in peak season?
• How deployment affect pricing and
occupancy?
Price Seasonality
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
PCD
shoulder peak shoulder
47
Ships deployment dramatically affect business.
• Ships can be moved in different areas along the year to capture source market demand in high season.
• Deployment can also “solve” seasonality issue (e.g. Mediterranean during winter).
QUESTION
• What differences between local brand and international brand ? (eg. TUI/AIDA vs. others)
• What issues/implications for positioning cruises?
Deployment
48
Deployment
DELIZIOSA
Venice 7d
DIADEMA
Med 7d
FASCINOSA
Med 7d
FAVOLOSA
Cph/War
Fiords 7d
LUMINOSA
Venice 7d
MAGICA
Ams Long
Fiods+Island+Spitz.
MEDITERRANEA
Stockholm
Baltic 7d
PACIFICA
Ham / Kiel Long
North Cape+Baltic
neoCLASSICA
Bari 7d
neoRIVIERA
Med 7d
ARMONIA
Genova
Ibiza 7d + Malta 7d
DIVINA
Miami 7d
MAGNIFICA
Warnemunde/Copenhagen
Baltic + Fiords 7d
MUSICA
Venice/Bari
Greek Is. 7d
OPERA
Cuba 7d
ORCHESTRA
Genova
Palma/Ajaccio 7d
PREZIOSA
Hamburg
Uk Iceland + Fiords
10/14 d
SINFONIA
Venice/Ancona
Greek Is. 7d
SPLENDIDA
Genova
Spain 7d
FANTASIA
Kiel/Copenaghen
Fiords + Baltic 7d
MERAVIGLIA
Genova
Malta 7d
Costa and MSC Summer 2017
POESIA
Venice/Bari
Greek Is. 7d
49
Deployment
Costa and MSC Winter 2017
DELIZIOSA
F. Lauderdale 10
DIADEMA
Med 7
MEDITERRANEA
Med 7 + Long
FAVOLOSA
PTP
LUMINOSA
World Cruise
MAGICA
PTP 7+7
FASCINOSA
Santos
PACIFICA
Buenos Aires
neoCLASSICA
Maldives/India
Open Jaw
neoRIVIERA
Dubai 7
neoROMANTICA
Indian Ocean
DIVINA
Miami 7 days
FANTASIA
Dubai
7 days
MAGNIFICA
Genova
Med Long
MUSICA
Santos
OPERA
Cuba
POESIA
PTP 7 days
PREZIOSA
Santos
ORCHESTRA
Buenos Aires
ARMONIA
Cuba
SINFONIA
Durban / Cape Town
SPLENDIDA
Genova
Med 7 days
50
Costa sells its cruises all over the world but around 60% of contribution comes from Italy,
France and Spain.
• In Med area Italy, France and Spain
represent 70% of total share. South
America’s production is focused on South
America local winter seasons
Deployment & market source mix
Mkts Pax
Italy 34%
France 17%
Spain&Por 11%
SAM 10%
Germany 8%
Rest of Europe 16%
Rest of world 4%
51
Ships itinerary dramatically affect business.
• After deployment decision, itinerary design have a relevant impact due to the
importance of:
• DESTINATION
• DURATION
• SOURCE MARKET “GATE”
Itinerary
QUESTIONS/OPEN POINTS:
• Home Port and/or Port of call: what implication? (eg. Venice is equal to Trieste?
Barcelona is Home Port or Port of Call? )
• LNG? Is going to be available everywhere?
• What about “Guest Experience” ? (Ship experience and ashore experience)
LARGER SHIPS – SHORTER CRUISES
“A positive way to persuade new people to
cruising. In 2020 we will also be the first to
operate an LNG cruise ship from North
America” C. Duffy CCL President.
Mini 5 days: 499€
Med 11 days: 999€
- Perception ?
- ROLB Implication?
52
• Costa Diadema
• Summer 18
• 7 days
Itinerary / Examples
Multiple Source
market Gates
Source Market /
Airport Gate
Customer PolarizationMultiple Duration
• Costa Favolosa
• Summer 2018
• 7 days
• Costa Magica
• Winter 2018
• 7 + 7 days
• Costa Victoria
• Summer 2018
• 7 days
53
To sustain different sourcing Costa Crociere works in Europe almost everywhere with a multi
embarkation model to enable accessibility.
• Costa Crociere manage embarkation in 22
Western Mediterrenean ports, 5 Adriatic ports
and 10 harbours in Northern Europe.
• Out of Europe the turnaround is limited to a
more confined list of ports due to minor
sourcing from local markets.
Accessibility
54
From Yield management point of view pax are splitted between lower berths (generally adults)
and upper berths (generally children or anyway adults paying a discounted price).
• Lower Berths: first and second bed of the cabin. Each cabin is composed by max 2 lb.
• Upper Berths: third / fourth bed of the cabin. According to the max occupancy you will have 1 or 2 ub.
• 𝑨𝑳𝑩 (Available Lower Berths) = Ship capacity in terms of Lower Berths
• 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 = 𝐴𝐿𝐵 * Cruise Duration
• 𝑷𝑨𝑿 (Number of Passengers): 𝑷𝑨𝑿 𝑳𝑩 𝑷𝑨𝑿 𝑼𝑩 𝑷𝑨𝑿 𝑻𝑶𝑻
• 𝑷𝑪𝑫 (Passenger Cruise Days) : number of passengers * cruise duration
• 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 = Lower Berth Passengers * Cruise Duration
• 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑼𝑩 = Upper Berth Passengers * Cruise Duration
• 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻 = Sum of 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩+𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑼𝑩
Supply and quantitative KPIs
55
Considering that ticket revenue can be classified as gross (= with commission) or net (= after
commission to agencies) here we have the main KPIs that drive cruise industry decision.
Revenue & Occupancy KPIs
• 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑳𝑩
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩
𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫
• NOTE: 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑳𝑩 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎% when 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 = 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫
• 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑻𝑶𝑻 =
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻
𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫
NOTE: 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑻𝑶𝑻 may be higher than 100%
• 𝑵𝑷𝑫 = 𝑵𝒆𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝑫𝒊𝒆𝒎 = Net Revenues per pax day
• 𝑵𝑷𝑫 𝑳𝑩 =
𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑳𝑩
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩
• 𝑵𝑷𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻 =
𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻
• 𝑹𝑶𝑳𝑩 =
𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩
= Revenues per Occupied Lower Berth
• 𝒀𝑰𝑬𝑳𝑫 =
𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻
𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫
(Yield = Rolb if Occupancy Lb 100%)
56
Yield Management is a “typical” and “key” function of a cruise company.
• “Revenue on lower berth * Occupancy” is the “magic” formula.
Yield Management
𝒀𝑰𝑬𝑳𝑫 =
𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻
𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫
=
𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻
𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫
*
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩
=
𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩
*
𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩
𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫
𝒀𝑰𝑬𝑳𝑫 = 𝑹𝑶𝑳𝑩 * 𝑶𝒄𝒄 𝑳𝑩
57
The “cabin” is the “first” sell unit.
Source: MSC Grandiosa, www.msccrociere.it.
Cabin Categories
• Three main cabin categories: Internal, Seaview, Balcony.
• Each company design its cabin differentiation: by position (deck – bow/stern) – other typology (Suite, Terrace), …
INTERNAL SEAVIEW BALCONY
58
Cruise ships don’t have all the same ship configuration and this dimension is fundamental for
the pricing strategy
Source: “Pricing and revenue management in the cruise industry: Costa Cruises”, Costa Crociere paper at MEMIT, SDA Bocconi, May 2020.
Ship configuration & pricing Strategy
Case 1: Costa Victoria (40%/40%/20%) Case 2: Costa Pacifica (40%/20%/40%) Case 3: Costa Smeralda (30%/6%/64%)
• Fundamental to protect balconies
as they can sold-out easily
• Fundamental to remember the ship
configuration when defining the
strategic pricing
• Important to balance demand
between inside and balconies
• Cabins sold in outside category will
be easily upgraded so it is
important to sell them only when
balcony demand is not enough
• Except peak season it will be very
difficult to fill-up all balcony cabins
with natural demand
• It is important to define pricing in
order to stimulate demand up-sell
59
In order to maximize revenue in a multi-embarkation model it is fundamental the ship allotment
management.
Source: “Pricing and revenue management in the cruise industry: Costa Cruises”, Costa Crociere paper at MEMIT, SDA Bocconi, May 2020.
Allotment management
ALLOTMENT: It defines how total ship capacity is allocated
and splitted between the ports called along the itinerary.
• Strategic allotment: It is defined by Revenue Analyst in
charge of the ship before sales opening according to PY
sales, market commitment, sellbale itineraries
• Dynamic allotment: It is defined by Revenue Analyst
during sales according to sales trends, changes in
deployment/market commitment, special operations and
market requests.
35%
25%
20%
10%
10%
Example of strategic allotment
SVN
MRS
BCN
NAP
PMO
30%
22%18%
15%
15%
Example of final dynamic allotment
SVN
MRS
BCN
NAP
PMO
60
4P is a usual “frame”: what are key decisions for a cruise company?
• Ship set-up / experience
• Itinerary / Destination
• Market / Product
Marketing Mix
• Ticket Pricing
• Onboard pricing
• Price Offer
• Sustaining demand and
increasing first timer ever but
also increase repetition
• Trade marketing or consumer
marketing?
• Mass communication or
direct communication: which
media mix?
• Off-line distribution
(travel agents) play a
key role
• Which role for market
place or online travel
agency ?
• What’s next for
Ecommerce? What are
the barriers ?
61
A cruise is like a “diamond” in the travel industry: each guest can live its personal experience.
Source: “What To Do on a Cruise Ship”, Celebrity Cruises, 2020 – MSC Crociere and Costa Crociere Youtube Channel.
Virtual ship visit: what to do on a cruise?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSuv7bGfTuA
• Cruise company offers different and various “experiences” onboard and ashore
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4vLikBPSGghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NADOBgzN_ls
Costa Smeralda – 21/12/19 – 6.600 paxCelebrity Edge – 9/12/2018 – 3.000 Pax MSC Grandiosa – 9/11/2019 – 6.300 pax
62
Very competitive “Price per Day”: high “value for money”.
• Destination and itinerary are the primary decision factors, followed by value for money.
• Cruise operators apply different USPs in order to attract customers:
• “Food” experience
• Excursions offer
• Entertainment (Cruising is also a “social” experience)
• Shopping
• Casino
Product
QUESTIONS:
• Importance of Hotel Operations: an “Holiday” is an experience (based on human feeling). How to keep and
increase Net Promoter Score?
• Destination or ship? What is more relevant? And for which customers?
63
Pricing is overall “complicated” due to multiple items and variables.
• “Entry price” very aggressive but …
• Different typology of cabin
• Different level of service (eg. food & beverage included/excluded)
• Different level of ancillary services (eg. Breakfast in the cabin, …)
• “Taxation” and revenue opportunities (eg. Hotel Service Charges)
• Very low level of “integration” with other services
Price
QUESTIONS:
• Why companies don’t simplify the offer?
• How price system affects distribution ?
64
In order to maximize revenue and satisfy different booking clusters or moments, Costa defined
the below pricing structure with strategic, tactical and hided fares.
The actual pricing structure in the Italian mkt
65
Main fares structure: Deluxe, All-inclusive & Basic
66
The 3-level strategic pricing is the result of a work started in 2011 and that led to a reduction of
the cabin categories from 15 to 3
Pricing models evolution
67
Price Bundling: combining several products or services into a single comprehensive package
for an all-inclusive reduced price.
Price Bundling
PRICE COMPONENTS:
• Cruise ticket (including meals) by type of cabins
(Inside/Outside/Balcony/Suite) and by market
• Beverages (on consumption or packages included in tariff)
• H24 cabin service
• Breakfast in cabin
• Wi-Fi
• Mandatory Tips for Cru members (on board or included in tariff)
• Excursions
• Spa services
• …
68
Humans see value in the form of Happiness and Business has the job to deliver that Happiness*
*Kevin Kaiser, The Blue Line Imperative, 2013.
Dynamic pricing models
• The Happiness in Costa Pricing Model is the attractiveness of All-inclusive fare versus the Next Best Alternatives
Competitor
Price
Beverage&Shorex
Package
Happiness Costa All-
inclusive
Booking
Rules
Costa
Basic
Happiness
BookingRules
Beverage&Shorex
Package
69
Source: Travel Market Report, 2015.
Sales Channels - Scenario
Packaged Holidays Resort Cruises
Booking Channels (in % sul totale)
2014
2013
24
7
43
12
14
22
12
40
17
9
Diretto
offline
Diretto
online
Agenzia
offline
OTA Altro
23
13
36
13
15
24
15
28
20
13
Diretto
offline
Diretto
online
Agenzia
offline
OTA Altro
24
6
62
4 3
24
7
57
9
3
Diretto
offline
Diretto
online
Agenzia
offline
OTA Altro
70
The final link between the Company and the Customer: cruise distribution is very different from
other tourism products/packages.
• The Market is divided into FIT (Full Indipendent Travel) and Groups (Association, etc. )
• Off-line channels (Travel agents) represents nowadays the main distribution channels
• Direct Sales so far are increasing year by year but consider that in mature markets (USA) their
penetration is still under 60%
• Online Travel Agent play a key role
• Which role for global market places? (eg. Booking.com, Voyage Privee, others)
Sales Channels (1/3)
• Sales channels is a strategic “pillar” also for reduction of CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost).
• “Omnichannels Purchasing Experience” will be one of the main strategy for the future.
71
Distribution is different by Country and by Customer.
• Prospect and Customer look for a cruise and
purchase in different touch points and channels.
• Prospect need “reassurance” and finally book with
a Travel agent while Customer know the product
and are more near to direct channels.
Sales Channels (2/3)
• Shape of the distribution is very different Country by Country.
• Contact Center are for cruises a relevant sales channel and Online Travel Agents are specialized on
sales (not only a price comparator).
QUESTION
• What difference along the channels and what are risk / opportunity for a cruise company?
72
“Distribution” will be more and more strategic in the future.
• Each cruise company need to manage its “direct / indirect” balance and the “power of market places”.
Sales Channels (3/3)
• What’s next in
the future?
73
A cruise industry need to continue to target in the next future “new to cruise” – millennials and
retired.
Promotion
WHAT IMPLICATION?
• Different media-mix
• Digital or physical touchpoints
• Discount vs. Loyalty tool
WHO IS THE TARGET? It depends by my brand positioning.
74
Why cruise penetration is not exploiting?
• High Value for Money
• Multiple destinations / one holiday
• “Social” experience
• Flexible Holiday (every guest can
personalized the onboard and ashore
experience)
Consumer Barriers
• Expensive / Price not transparent
(hidden costs)
• Only “old” people onboard
• Crowded and standardized experience
75
Not only perception: a cruise company need a consistent and coherent brand positioning.
Source: “Cruise Ship Industry”, Sarah Cassidy, Kailey O’Hagan, Andrew Keith, Flint Geier, 2015.
Brand positioning
76
A cruise company need a consistent and coherent brand positioning.
Source: needscope method, Kantar TNS UK.
• E.g. Kantar TNS needscope method.
Brand positioning
77
360° strategic approach guided by a clear and consistent brand positioning across the
customer journey.
Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017.
T.R.U.E. Model
• New Product Pillars
• New Loyalty Club
• New CRM Strategy
• New Media Strategy
78
Heavy pressure with a new testimonial.
A new Advertising Campaign
Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017.
CV
C
V
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f94PsIKlgEg
79
A new Advertising Campaign plus Product pillars
Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017.
80
High level of resources invested in the last 2 years in product features focused in gastronomy and
entertainment ---------------- target 45% NPS
Benvenuti alla felicitಠ- new product features
FOOD
Gala menu by
chef Bruno
Barbieri
SHOREX
«Turisti per Caso»
shore excursions
ENTERTAINEMENT
Talent show onboard
«Tú sì que vales»
KIDS
Fun with Peppa Pig
Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017.
81
From Data analysis to Location analytics
Business data
Demographics
Point of interest
Online propensity
Location analytics are applicable to virtually anything that can be
associated with a “location” to put in relationship different business data.
Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2018.
82
GeoIntelligence allows Costa to identify areas with high-potential but still under-penetrated and
plan local initiatives.
Geointelligence tool
Target area selection
Micro-area
segmentation
Partner
selection
Micro-marketing
Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2018.
83
Current scenario: what’s future for the cruise industry?
• Digital Transformation and cruise industry
• Asia keeps growing
• New product design: Virgin Holidays
• Covid-19 “storm” impacts in the short-term
• Current European tentative restart: product and implications
• What’s future for cruise industry? Let’s discuss about it with a Top Manager
Lesson #3
84
Why will be part of the business?
Digital Transformation
1
CONNECTIONS
2
DATA
3
INTERACTIONS
85
From Data Driven Company … to Digital !
Cruise Company and Digital
• Digital Transformation will have an impact on the overall company, functions and assets.
• From mindset to the way of doing things… everything is supposed to change.
Internet of Things
Artificial Intelligence
Machine learning
86
Why deliver a standout digital guest experience?
The cruise industry is rapidly evolving to integrate the Internet of Things — with sensors, connected devices,
artificial intelligence, and cloud computing — into the experience to change the way guests interact while onboard.
Cruise ships like smart cities.
87
• All of these cruise lines, and many
others, are betting on a larger audience
seeking vacation experiences.
• Recent surveys say that everyone, from
millennials to new generations, are
willing to pay more for experiences than
physical goods.
Ships are being designed with a forward-looking
approach to what’s next.
88
• The Big Idea?
A Brand Experience
Ecosystem
Distribute “wow” moments in the
experience to gain a foothold in
customer mindshare.
Business
TechnologyDesign
Customer
89
Some example of digitalization
Carnival Princess |
Ocean medallion
Royal Caribbean |
Excalibur APP
MSC |
MSC for Me
Costa |
Costa App
All company – particularly for new constructions – are investing to digitalize guest experience.
90
Costa digital guest experience
Integrated on board experience is the next step.
91
First ship exclusively built for Chinese Market.
Source: for further details see www.costa.it. The Medi Telegraph., November 2017.
• Christening: March 2019
• The 135,500-ton Costa Venezia will have 2,116
cabins for a total of 5,260 passengers. A second
sister ship also designed for the Chinese market will
be delivered by Fincantieri in 2020.
• The design of the ship will be dedicated to the city
of Venice.
• Chinese guests onboard will enjoy a once-in-a-
lifetime experience immersing themselves in a multi-
sensory “virtual” trip in Venice, featuring food, art,
music and entertainment.
Costa Venezia
92
CSSC Carnival Cruise Shipping Limited is the just born joint venture that will sustain the growth
of Chinese market.
• Carnival Corporation, the world’s largest leisure travel company, has
announced the launch of its cruise joint venture with China State
Shipbuilding Corporation under the name CSSC Carnival Cruise
Shipping Limited.
• The new China-based cruise company plans to operate its own fleet to
serve Chinese cruise guests by the end of 2019.
• The new joint venture will operate with two ships that will be transferred
from Costa Cruises, Costa Atlantica and Costa Mediterranea, plus two
more new ships that will be built at the Shanghai shipyards thanks to a
further agreement between CSSC and Fincantieri.
• At the current moment is not known the brand positioning and the
company which will drive “sales and marketing operations”.
A new Asia Brand
93
Demography is for certain…
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2014
1928-45
1946-64
1965-80
1981-96
Millenial
18-33 years old
Silent
69-86 years old
Baby Boomer
50-68 years old
Generazione X
34-49 years old
Demography is one of the “driver” to understand future scenario.
• What implication for Product design?
• Covid-19 and Demand: what correlation?
94
Millennials are the new target?
• “We plan to shake up the cruise industry and
deliver a holiday that customers will absolutely
love”
• Mr McAlpin CEO Virgin Cruises also commented:
“Cruise guests deserve something better and
different to what is being offered today, and Virgin
Cruises is committed to creating breathtaking
experiences for them and a new generation of
guests.”
Will Virgin Cruises Attract Virgin Cruisers?
95
The ship’s official icon will be a topless mermaid.
Source: Virgin Press Release, October 2017.
Virgin Voyages to launch adults-only cruise
experience in 2020
The very first Virgin Voyages cruise will accommodate
2,700 passengers when it finally sets sail in 2020, but
none of them will be a child.
FIRST-EVER CRUISE SHIP FOR 'MILLENNIALS'
WILL 'MAKE HISTORY,' COMPANY SAYS.
The company’s decision was “driven by feedback from
future sailors and travel professionals who are looking
for a more elevated and premium experience, with a
few Virgin style surprises.”
“sophisticated ship and a transformational experience”
for passengers to enjoy both daytime activities and
“exciting nightlife.”
96
It happened …
97
Covid-19 pandemic - starting from China end of 2019 - dramatically spread all over the world
and lead cruise industry to a total stop.
• Historically the Cruise Industry is very resilient and was able to recovery every past crisis leveraging on
different plus as flexibility, solid financial structure, multiple markets and management capabilities.
• Covid-19 pandemic generated an unpredictable situation:
• Huge effort to recovery ships, guests and crew
• All areas locked-down
• All main market (USA, Europe, Asia, Australia) simultaneously stopped
• All Corporations / brands operations stopped
• Product and experience not allowed / deliverable
• Timing for restoring operations not certain / unpredictable
COVID-19 a “storm” on cruise industry
98
Source: “Return to Service”, Cruise industry News, Sep-2020.
What CEOs declared and key facts
Preserve “cash” and work on a possible “restart” have been the main priorities.
CEO Carnival
CEO Royal Caribbean
CEO NCL
CEO NCL
April, 2020
CEO Carnival
April, 2020
October, 2020
99
Big Corporations need huge amount of cash to survive during this “No revenues” period.
Fonte: Fineco Bank. Data as of 16th October 2020.
QUESTIONS:
• How long supply can sustain this forced stop?
• Crisis may affect also U.S.A. historical leadership?
Financial impact
-67% -67% -45%
100
6 months of worldwide full stop of cruise operations.
COVID-19 impact
Feb-20
4th February 2020
Diamond Princess was the first
cruise ship to have a major
outbreak on board, with the ship
quarantined at Yokohama from 4
February 2020 for
approximately one month.
July-20
Cruise Companies start
registering many Covid-19
positive guests onboard.
The industry run into a stop of
operations.
Mar-20
30th March 2020.
Costa Diadema, flagship of the
company, eventually has been
allowed to dock in Piombino (LI)
after almost all other ports
refused it.
Aug-20 Sept-20
16th July 2020.
MSC restart operations from
Genoa with its flagshio
Grandiosa for a Med 7 days
itinerary in the mediterranean.
6th September 2020.
Costa Crociere restart
operations from Trieste with
Costa Deliziosa with a new
product «Italy/Italians only»
25th July 2020.
TUI, is the first company to
restart operations with Mein
Schiff 2 for a 3 days round
trip (no calls) from Hamburg.
Dream Cruises (Genting) on
26th July restarts its
operations from Hong Kong.
Hundreds of ships are
eventually docked all
around the world.
Cruise Companies need to bring
back home their guest and their crew.
• Company worked on “Safety Protocols” and were very committed on restart operations.
• Despite this health situation and weak demand are suggesting a “gradual” deploy of ships.
101
There are many more vessels mid-construction, commissioned to meet the demand that
characterized years of growth pre-2020, back when the $150 billion industry was booming.
Source: Cruise ships being dismantled and scrapped for parts, FOX 5, New York, 14th October, 2020. See also CNN Travel, 7th October 2020.
• The result? An excess of ships.
• In a somber sign of the times, the world’s largest
cruise operator is selling 12% of its fleet as the
coronavirus pandemic continues to drown demand for
travel.
• Carnival selling 18 cruise ships as coronavirus
pandemic continues (September 2020).
• "I don't know that many cruise lines in the world are
looking to buy ships right now," Bill Miller, a cruise
ship historian, "I would say that would be very
unlikely. The next best buyer would be the scrappers."
Covid-19 impact on capacity and secondary
hand market
Aerial Aliaga ship recycling port on October 02, 2020 in Izmir, Turkey.
102
Despite the crisis and 2021 booking trends are positive.
• People love cruising and they can not wait for: the issue caused by covid-19 is not how to boost demand but
when cruises will be back again.
• Positive trend slow down with the second wave of the pandemic.
2021 booking trend
103
As of 17th October 2020 the pandemic at global level is spread and strong.
• USA – the main cruise market – has been stopped until 31st October 2020.
Pandemic curve and cruise plan
104
During summer – thanks to the good trend of pandemic in the main market (Germany) and main
destination (Italy) – cruise company worked hard on a possible restart.
• xxxx
Pandemic curve and cruise plan
• Tui, Aida, MSC and Costa
worked hard on a restart plan
and eventually succeed on it.
• Particularly in Italy the scenario
was positive and thanks to rigid
safety protocols the government
approved cruise restart on 7th of
August.
• Unfortunately in the last 14 days
pandemic come back stronger …
105
Example – AIDA onboard rules
Source: “Return to Service”, Cruise industry News, Sep-2020.
• Aida will be the fifth cruise line to
restart operation after (Tui, Genting,
MSC and Costa) on 17th October
2020 with a Med7 itinerary called “La
bella Italia”.
New Product
106
Costa restart product
107
Costa Crociere “restart” product. Costa Safety Protocol as a pillar of the current “new way of
cruising”.
Cruises have already changed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQPq1uOVjUA
108
Only 8 ships (4 companies) are back to cruises in October 2020 with reduced capacity and new
product design.
Supply Oct-20
RESTART DATE
# SHIPS
Region
25th July 16th August 6th September 17th October
2 ships 2 ships 3 ships 1 ship
North Europe Mediterranean Med Mediterranean Mediterranean
QUESTIONS:
• What about capacity?
• What about source markets?
• Is it a sustainable business (BEP)?
109
MSC focus on safety and price while Costa on brand and long term booking.
Strong TV advertising and different strategies
for the restarting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ-aB3RZY_A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn9o0IzsAhQ
QUESTIONS:
• What about prices and occupancy?
110
Let’s talk about it with an Industry Top Manager.
Cruise Industry: what future?
SOME “BIG” QUESTIONS:
• Will cruise industry survive? All players will overcome Covid-19 crisis?
• Cruises vs. Tour operating: what dramatically affect more cruises than other tourism and leisure product?
• Does some player/brand have some advantage in this crisis period and why?
• What about the product of tomorrow?
• What about deployment? What changes can we predict?
• Price level: will the companies further reduce prices to stimulate demand?
• What about distribution? Ecommerce will have an increase?
THANK YOU !
Mirco Vassallo
Mobile +39 3356416197
Email m.vassallo@libero.it
112
Below some of the sources mentioned and utilized in the paper.
• “Cruise Ship Orderbook”, Cruise Industry News, October, 2020.
• “2018 Global Passenger Report”, CLIA, 2019.
• “2019 Cruise Trends & Industry Outlook”, CLIA, 2019.
• “Return to Service”, Cruise industry News, Sep-2020.
• “Creare valore condiviso”, Genoa University, Hamburg University, Deloitte & Touche, 2018.
• Cruise Market Watch, www.cruisemarketwatch.com, 2019.
• “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019.
• “The European market potential for cruise tourism”, Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2019.
• “USA Cruise Travel Report”, CLIA, January 2018.
• “Cruise Ship Industry”, Sarah Cassidy, Kailey O’Hagan, Andrew Keith, Flint Geier, 2015.
• “Analyzing the supply chain strategy of the cruise industry: the case of a small cruise company”, University of the
Aegean, G. Vaggelas, Ioannis Lagoudis, 2010.
• Cruise Insights Magazine.
• Cruise Industry News.
Bibliography

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Cruise Industry lessons a.a. 2020-2021 - November 2020

  • 1. Mirco Vassallo DIEC | Economics of Cruise, Ferry and Yachting Industries (cod. 102487) a.a. 2020 – 2021 Cruise industry Market, players and business drivers
  • 2. 2 A passion for cruises. The speaker • Born in Genoa in 1975. • Graduate at University of Genoa on July 1999 with a final assignment on «Local economic impact of passenger ports». • Prior experiences at as Public Transport Consultant, Telco Accounting, different roles in Sales and Marketing. • Joined Costa Crociere in April 2013 as Head of Worldwide CRM and Direct marketing. • Currently Italy Direct and Online Sales Director. • For more info: www.linkedin.com/in/mircovassallo
  • 3. 3 Cruise industry is “tricky” business: we are going to go deeper on the main drivers of the “game”. Introduction • Global market • Capital intensive and labor intensive industry • Almost based on fixed costs and long term industrial plan • Constantly influenced by external factors (eg. Macroeconomics factors) • Very low market penetration • Maritime and/or Tour Operator • Human resources are a key success factor both onboard and ashore but digitalization is a “must” in the next future ... but nowadays cruise industry is facing pandemic Covid-19 with a unique certain: uncertainty
  • 4. 4 A.A. 2020 -2021 - Fourth edition program • 19th October, Monday - 15:00 > 16:45 Lesson #1 - videocall Market, player, competition. • 20th October, Tuesday - 15:00 > 16:45 Lesson #2 - videocall Business driver and trends • 3rd November, Tuesday - 15:00 > 16:45 Lesson #3 – at University Current scenario: what’s future for the cruise industry? Let's discuss about it with a Top Manager Cruise Industry Workshop
  • 5. 5 • Task: Imagine you have to manage a start-up in the cruise industry 2021 early beginning with no budget/timing constraint. You can have ships (newbuilding or second hand ones) and you can design your ideal experience (onboard and ashore). Present the market your plan to reach break-even: ship features, deployment, itineraries, ALBD (capacity/offer), product, markets, targets according to the post Covid-19 scenario. Feel free to defend your ideas on the base of clear rationales and assumptions. Include – if you found it – readings and sources. • Objective: demonstrate to manage key factors and business drivers that affect cruise company life in short and long period. • Way of work: group of 4/5 participants or individual assignment [group is a plus]. • Output: *.doc not less than 1.000 / not more than 2.000 words or a video of 3 / 5 minutes [video is a plus]. • Please send your assignment via email to m.vassallo@libero.it and in copy to enrico.musso@unige.it Assignment weight: up to 10 pp on final evaluation. Assignment
  • 6. 6 Market, player, competition • Cruise industry economic impact • Global Deployment • Global Demand • Source Market and Destinations • FOCUS: European markets • FOCUS: Current orderbook • Global player: market share and competition Lesson #1
  • 7. 7 Before Covid-19 pandemic direct impact of Cruise industry was growing and trend was not supposed to stop in the future. Source: CLIA, 2018. • Only in 2019 debuted 19 new cruise ships. Cruise Industry Impact 2018
  • 8. 8 Cruise industry is generating a strong impact across the many economic activities involved. Cruise Industry Economic Impact Shipyard activities Cruising activities Crew and guests Cruise providers Engineers Architechts Raw materials Technical supplies Hotel supplies Technical supplies Harbours Goods & Services Food Transports Excursions Accomodations CRUISE COMPANY
  • 9. 9 A recent study of Deloitte, Genoa and Hamburg University highlights that only Costa Group generated in 2018 a yearly economic impact of 12.6 billions of euro and over 63.000 jobs. Source: “Creare Valore Condiviso”, 2018. Costa group Economic impact and mkt share 53% 50% 47% 38% 28% Costa Group Market Share
  • 10. 10 In 2019 more than 30 Million of guests are expected to cruise. Source: CLIA 2018. • Cruise industry was constantly growing with an average annual growth of 5.4% in the last ten years. Global Market
  • 11. 11 Capacity: 537.000 lower berth in 2018. Besides the historical prevalence of Caribbean, European areas (Med + North Europe) increased their relevance (28% global capacity). Source: Cruise Market Watch, CLIA 2020. Global Deployment 2018 Caribbean; 32,0% Mediterranean; 17,0%Europe (no Med); 11,0% Asia (w/China); 5,0% China; 5,0% Alaska; 5,0% South America (no Caribbean); 2,0% Australia/ N. Zealand / Pacific; 5,0% Other; 17,0% Deployment 2018 - % ALBD
  • 12. 12 Demand for cruises increase +13.2% in the last three years (2016-2018). Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018. • North America keep driving the growth (+9.4% vs. last year). • Asia reduced speed di 2018. Global Demand for cruises
  • 13. 13 Source: Cruise Market Watch, 2018. Global Demand for cruises
  • 14. 14 Destinations and Source Markets are not completely overlapped. Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018. Source Market and Destinations • What implications for deployment? • Ship: “flexible” ord “rigid” asset ?
  • 15. 15 Pax breakdown by cruise days highlights 2 out of 3 are choosing a cruise between 4 and 7 days whereas looking at the pax age we can observe as there is an high fragmentation. Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018. Cruise Pax breakdown by cruise days & age Mainly first timers to be retained and upgraded versus longer products Fundamental clusters to ensure a sustainable growth due to the willingness to pay and desire of exploring new destinations
  • 16. 16 Big variance between Europe and North America source market. Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018. Demand / Age and Cruise Length
  • 17. 17 Caribbean and Asia offer is generally based on “short cruises” < 7 days. Source: Global Passenger Report, CLIA 2018. Deployement / Age and Cruise Length
  • 18. 18 So far impressive order book. In 2027 the market is supposed to further grow (+225k Lower Berth) Source: Elaboration on “Cruise Ship Orderbook”, October, 2020 • 79 new ocean cruise ships included in current orderbook Orderbook • Three types of cruise ships are being built: those for mass market, mainly larger ships of about 130,000t, luxury and upper premium ships of 40,000t-70,000t and more recently smaller ships mainly dedicated to adventure, discovery or expedition cruising (Fincantieri, M. Cergol, 2018). Year # ships Capacity (LB) 2020 3 4.964 2021 16 48.486 2022 18 52.256 2023 17 50.110 2024 9 27.830 2025 8 22.060 2026 5 10.160 2027 3 9.630 Total 79 225.496
  • 19. 19 Orderbook focused on mega-ships. Source: Elaboration on “Cruise Ship Orderbook”, October, 2020 • Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean will keep growing. • MSC will consolidate its global player role (3rd Cruise global player) • A new player will enter the market (Virgin Cruises). • Shipyards were “full booked” in the next years: Orderbook QUESTIONS: • What about second hand and ship repairing market? • Are older ships (>20 years old) going to be sold by big player ? Year Fincantieri Chantiers CSSC Meyer Werft Others yards Total 2020 2 1 3 2021 6 1 6 3 16 2022 6 4 6 2 18 2023 7 2 1 6 1 17 2024 4 2 1 1 1 9 2025 6 1 1 0 8 2026 5 0 0 5 2027 2 1 0 0 3 Total 38 11 2 20 8 79 > 200 150 - 200 125 - 150 80 - 125 50 - 80 < 50 Royal Caribbean 16 5 3 3 1 0 4 Celebrity 3 3 Royal Caribbean 6 5 1 Silversea 4 4 TUI Cruises 3 2 1 Carnival 15 9 4 2 AIDA Cruises 2 2 Carnival 2 2 Carnival China 2 2 Costa Cruises 2 1 1 Cunard Line 1 1 Holland America 1 1 P&O Cruises 2 2 Princess 3 2 1 MSC 12 4 4 4 NCL 8 0 0 6 0 2 0 Norwegian 6 Oceania 2 Disney 3 3 Virgin 3 3 Dream Cruises 2 2 Viking Ocean 10 10 Others 10 1 2 7 Total 79 11 16 16 7 18 11 ORDERBOOK BY COMPANY / SHIP CLASS (000 / Gross Tonnage)
  • 20. 20 Geography of the market might change. Source: elaboration on Cruise Industry News, 2018. • Cruise companies did not declare where they are going to deploy new capacity. • Considering the current declaration China was supposed play a key role in the short term (40% of new capacity) • Europe is the second area for new deployment (25% of new capacity) • What in the next future ? By 2024 25% of new capacity will be introduced in Europe where competition will became “hard”. Orderbook Somma di Capacity Etichette di colonna Etichette di riga Asia Carib China China​ Eur/Carib Europe World Totale complessivo 2020 4.232 732 4.964 2021 9.400 2.660 15.488 2.224 29.772 2022 280 5.000 5.448 5.158 15.886 2023 10.000 2.900 3.778 16.678 2024 5.000 2.230 7.230 Totale complessivo 280 9.400 24.232 5.448 2.660 18.388 14.122 74.530
  • 21. 21 European Cruise Market Penetration How to sustain cruise demand in Europe? 5,0% U.S.A. 5,0% Australia 0,2% China
  • 22. 22 European Markets grow +3,3% in 2018 up to 7,17M Passengers. Germany leads the growth thanks also to its local brands. Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. European Cruise Market • Germany leads the growth thanks also to its local brands. • UK/Ireland is reachs 2M passenger volume in 2018. • Italy is the most promising market with the highest growth in the main markets (+8%). • Spain and France grow in line with European avg. • Russia is the most potential market.
  • 23. 23 Key role of Western Med (42%) and Northern Europe (20%). Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. . • Volume in the Mediterranean, mostly Eastern Mediterranean, is growing (+8%) together other destinations such as Northern Europe (+5%) and Baltics (+9%). European Destination
  • 24. 24 Germans cover every destinations with a relevant weight. Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. • English love Canary islands and Caribbeans. • Italians and French are more focused on specific destinations (Med and Caribbean). Volumes Per Key Destinations / Countries QUESTIONS: • How flights connections impact on cruise destinations?
  • 25. 25 Europe is a “seasonal” area and it is not only a “meteo” issue. Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. • Germans and English play a key role in “shoulder” seasons (Q1 and Q4). Volumes per Quarters / Countries
  • 26. 26 There is a clear relationship between average age and cruise length. Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. • Older generations can cruise for longer periods. • Youngest cruisers are in Italy while “oldest” ones in Europe are in UK, aligned with the longest average cruise length. Age and Cruise Length / Country
  • 27. 27 Med 7 days proposal in Mediterranean has a clear correlation with “younger” guests. Source: CLIA Europe, 2018. Age and Cruise Length / Destination
  • 28. 28 Germany is the largest source market in Europe with an all-time record number of 2.23 Million passengers for 2018. Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. Germany • The average cruise length shows a marginal variation and is at 9.1 nights. • Three out four German passengers opted for a cruise in European sailing regions. • Germans have direct access to Norther Europe itineraries which represent the most important destination. • Local brands: Aida and TUI with an increase of MSC for international guests.
  • 29. 29 2M of British chose a cruise in 2018 (+2.0% vs. 17). On avg. British are the oldest cruisers and travel a lot. Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. • The Mediterranean remains the most popular cruise destination for British cruise travelers, with 34.5% but with a decrease vs. 2017 (-6%). • Cruises in Northern Europe rose 8% against 2017 figures: the second most popular region for British cruisers. • Increase in popularity of colder- climate destinations including Canada, Alaska, and Antarctica. • Popular brands: P&O but British is an international and easy traveller. Great Britain & Ireland
  • 30. 30 Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. Italy Italian passengers have grown +8% in 2018 and represent the third European market. • Italian market is the youngest in Europe. • Mediterranean 7 days is the “destination” (73.5% of total passengers). • The biggest increase (+21%) is recorded for short cruises (4 to 6 days). • Popular brands: definitively a duopoly Costa Crociere and MSC Crociere.
  • 31. 31 Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. France France: a market that was supposed to grow more. • “Accessibility” is on of the most “constraint” for French growth. • In 2017 closure of ‘Croisières de France’, third largest provider (with a unique proposal of all- inclusive tailor-made cruises in France) had a great impact on the market figures. • Caribbean is a specificity of the market (Dom-Tom local market). • Popular brands: mainly MSC and Costa Croisieres.
  • 32. 32 Source: “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. Spain With its 530k passengers Spain is the fourth European market, young and ready to travel. • Accelerated growth of 6.5% in 2017, and +3.9% in 2018 confirms cruising as one of Spaniards preferred vacation choices. • Canary island and Eastern Mediterranean show a growth in 2018. • Local brand: no more local brand (Pullmantur-3 ships, not still operating).
  • 33. 33 The 2018 total worldwide ocean cruise industry is estimated at $45.6 billion (a 4.6% increase over 2017) with 26.0 million annualized. Source: for further details, www.cruisemarketwatch.com. • Carnival Corporation • 10 brands • 47,4% of passengers • 39,4% of Revenues • RCCL • 6 brands • 26,4% of Market Share • 23,5% of Net Revenues • Norwegian Cruise Line • 3 brands • 9,5% of Market Share • 12,6% of Net Revenues • MSC Cruises • 1 brand • 7,2% of Market Share • 6,8% of Net Revenues 2018 Worldwide Cruise Line Market Share
  • 34. 34 Total worldwide ocean cruise capacity at the end of 2018 has been 537,000 passengers and 314 ships. Brand diversification is a common high-level strategy of corporations. Source: for further details, www.cruisemarketwatch.com. 2018 Worldwide cruise line market share
  • 35. 35 High competitive environment but - considering the “penetration” of cruises - who are the real competitors? Competitors Different “Experience” Tour Operator Alternative cruise option First timers / Prospect • Tour operator represent the main competitors to target. Repeaters
  • 36. 36 In Europe there is big space to further grow for cruise companies. Source: Costa Crociere spa. • In Europe there will be a big focus of the main corporation to benefit of the complementarity with the Caribbean area. Cruise vs. Tour Operator
  • 37. 37 Business driver and trend • Cruise company: organisational model and financial breakdown • Brand competition and strategic ship allocation • Key factors that affect demand • Key drivers in decision making: • Seasonality • Deployment • Itineraries • Yield management • Product • Strategic and tactical pricing • Marketing process • Distribution implications Lesson #2
  • 38. 38 Main scope: understand the main key success factors, key decisions and key business drivers. Source: Graphics Cruise Market Watch. • Cruise is one of the most dynamic tourism and shipping sectors. • The cruise market is characterized by high concentration (Soriani, 2009) as there are few but strong market players. This market concentration has intensified the competition among the players, which seek ways of obtaining competitive advantage. Cruise Market In this context there are four main dimensions for competition, i.e. the ship, the time of the cruise, the itinerary and the booking process (Papatheodorou, 2006).
  • 39. 39 Cross brands functions vs. line functions. Maritime vs. Hotel Operations. • Maritime operations • Fleet management • Project / Ship building • Purchasing Cruise Company - Organizational Model CROSS BRANDS / CENTRAL FUNCTIONS BRAND / LINE FUNCTIONS • Sales & Marketing • Yield management • Hotel Operations • Guest Experience • Corporate Strategy • Finance • Project management • Chief digital office • Transportation • HR • Communication & PR • Economies of scale doesn’t always justify a central governance. Importance of “culture” and “knowledge of the market” are relevant key success factor.
  • 40. 40 Importance of onboard revenues. Acquisition costs are very relevant in the industry (Advertising and commercial fee). Source: Cruise Market Watch Statistics, 2018. • Onboard revenues represent 28% of total gross revenues • Amortization / Depreciation affect operating income • Fuel is not fully “under control” • Cost of acquisition are very high SOME QUESTIONS: • How sustaining ROIC? • Ticket price and onboard revenues: which correlation? • Currency rate risk and deployment? Which trade-off? Financial Breakdown Revenue Expenses %/spending Ticket $1.293,00 72% Onboard Spending $498,00 28% -Casino & Bar $274,00 -Shore excursions (cruise line portion) $100,00 -Spa $50,00 -All other onboard spending $75,00 Total spending $1.791,00 100% Other operating costs $260,00 14,5% Agent commission $233,00 13,0% Ship fuel costs $193,00 10,8% Corporate Operating Costs $208,00 11,6% Payroll $197,00 11,0% Depreciation/Amortization $172,00 9,6% Victualing (food) $107,00 6,0% Onboard and other $77,00 4,3% Other and transportation $59,00 3,3% Interest Expense $56,00 3,1% Total Expenses $1.562,00 87,2% Profit before taxes $229,00 12,8% Financial breakdown of typical cruiser (worldwide, across all cruise lines)
  • 41. 41 Brand competition is a “virtuous” cycle also within the same corporation. Brands compete to have assigned new ships. New Ship More Capacity Lower Operative Costs Higher NPS/prices Higher OI Brand competition
  • 42. 42 1 Project, 9 ships, 4 different Brands. • Example of Carnival Excellence Project (first LNG mega ship) • Yard: Meyer Werft • AIDAnova is the name of the first ship of new XL Class • 9 new ships on order by 2023: 3 for AIDA Cruises, 2 for Costa Cruises, 2 for P&O and 2 for Carnival Cruise Line respectively. New ship “Excellence Class”
  • 43. 43 Different set-up for different onboard experience. • The decision of dimension and set-up affect not only the “product” but even the “brand positioning” in the future. Ships Carnival “Fun Ship” RCCL “Ship as a destination” DisneyCosta Crociere
  • 44. 44 The cruise company must “strictly” manage key factors to sustain and drive demand. 1. Own Price (P) 2. Prices of other goods (Po) 3. Income (I) 4. Tastes (T) Factors that affect demand Not possible to impact on Income/GDP. What are the most profitable target and countries? Short term -> Advertising Long term -> new Ship / Brand positioning Substitute product (high impact of Package holidays for prospect and price of competitors for repeaters) Simple solution … not always the best solution!
  • 45. 45 Purchasing behavior: high differentiation by Source Market. • Very different purchasing behavior within European countries. • Northern Europeans are “early bookers” while in the South Europe there is still a last minute effect. • Which implication? Booking Seasonality mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Booking Anticipation South Europe Trend North Europe Trend
  • 46. 46 Price is different by season / destination / customers. A very complex “game”. ASSUMPTIONS • Different behaviors by customers • Different behaviors by nationality • Different Age by season QUESTIONS: • How a cruise company optimize occupancy in shoulder seasons? • How a cruise company optimize pricing in peak season? • How deployment affect pricing and occupancy? Price Seasonality jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec PCD shoulder peak shoulder
  • 47. 47 Ships deployment dramatically affect business. • Ships can be moved in different areas along the year to capture source market demand in high season. • Deployment can also “solve” seasonality issue (e.g. Mediterranean during winter). QUESTION • What differences between local brand and international brand ? (eg. TUI/AIDA vs. others) • What issues/implications for positioning cruises? Deployment
  • 48. 48 Deployment DELIZIOSA Venice 7d DIADEMA Med 7d FASCINOSA Med 7d FAVOLOSA Cph/War Fiords 7d LUMINOSA Venice 7d MAGICA Ams Long Fiods+Island+Spitz. MEDITERRANEA Stockholm Baltic 7d PACIFICA Ham / Kiel Long North Cape+Baltic neoCLASSICA Bari 7d neoRIVIERA Med 7d ARMONIA Genova Ibiza 7d + Malta 7d DIVINA Miami 7d MAGNIFICA Warnemunde/Copenhagen Baltic + Fiords 7d MUSICA Venice/Bari Greek Is. 7d OPERA Cuba 7d ORCHESTRA Genova Palma/Ajaccio 7d PREZIOSA Hamburg Uk Iceland + Fiords 10/14 d SINFONIA Venice/Ancona Greek Is. 7d SPLENDIDA Genova Spain 7d FANTASIA Kiel/Copenaghen Fiords + Baltic 7d MERAVIGLIA Genova Malta 7d Costa and MSC Summer 2017 POESIA Venice/Bari Greek Is. 7d
  • 49. 49 Deployment Costa and MSC Winter 2017 DELIZIOSA F. Lauderdale 10 DIADEMA Med 7 MEDITERRANEA Med 7 + Long FAVOLOSA PTP LUMINOSA World Cruise MAGICA PTP 7+7 FASCINOSA Santos PACIFICA Buenos Aires neoCLASSICA Maldives/India Open Jaw neoRIVIERA Dubai 7 neoROMANTICA Indian Ocean DIVINA Miami 7 days FANTASIA Dubai 7 days MAGNIFICA Genova Med Long MUSICA Santos OPERA Cuba POESIA PTP 7 days PREZIOSA Santos ORCHESTRA Buenos Aires ARMONIA Cuba SINFONIA Durban / Cape Town SPLENDIDA Genova Med 7 days
  • 50. 50 Costa sells its cruises all over the world but around 60% of contribution comes from Italy, France and Spain. • In Med area Italy, France and Spain represent 70% of total share. South America’s production is focused on South America local winter seasons Deployment & market source mix Mkts Pax Italy 34% France 17% Spain&Por 11% SAM 10% Germany 8% Rest of Europe 16% Rest of world 4%
  • 51. 51 Ships itinerary dramatically affect business. • After deployment decision, itinerary design have a relevant impact due to the importance of: • DESTINATION • DURATION • SOURCE MARKET “GATE” Itinerary QUESTIONS/OPEN POINTS: • Home Port and/or Port of call: what implication? (eg. Venice is equal to Trieste? Barcelona is Home Port or Port of Call? ) • LNG? Is going to be available everywhere? • What about “Guest Experience” ? (Ship experience and ashore experience) LARGER SHIPS – SHORTER CRUISES “A positive way to persuade new people to cruising. In 2020 we will also be the first to operate an LNG cruise ship from North America” C. Duffy CCL President. Mini 5 days: 499€ Med 11 days: 999€ - Perception ? - ROLB Implication?
  • 52. 52 • Costa Diadema • Summer 18 • 7 days Itinerary / Examples Multiple Source market Gates Source Market / Airport Gate Customer PolarizationMultiple Duration • Costa Favolosa • Summer 2018 • 7 days • Costa Magica • Winter 2018 • 7 + 7 days • Costa Victoria • Summer 2018 • 7 days
  • 53. 53 To sustain different sourcing Costa Crociere works in Europe almost everywhere with a multi embarkation model to enable accessibility. • Costa Crociere manage embarkation in 22 Western Mediterrenean ports, 5 Adriatic ports and 10 harbours in Northern Europe. • Out of Europe the turnaround is limited to a more confined list of ports due to minor sourcing from local markets. Accessibility
  • 54. 54 From Yield management point of view pax are splitted between lower berths (generally adults) and upper berths (generally children or anyway adults paying a discounted price). • Lower Berths: first and second bed of the cabin. Each cabin is composed by max 2 lb. • Upper Berths: third / fourth bed of the cabin. According to the max occupancy you will have 1 or 2 ub. • 𝑨𝑳𝑩 (Available Lower Berths) = Ship capacity in terms of Lower Berths • 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 = 𝐴𝐿𝐵 * Cruise Duration • 𝑷𝑨𝑿 (Number of Passengers): 𝑷𝑨𝑿 𝑳𝑩 𝑷𝑨𝑿 𝑼𝑩 𝑷𝑨𝑿 𝑻𝑶𝑻 • 𝑷𝑪𝑫 (Passenger Cruise Days) : number of passengers * cruise duration • 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 = Lower Berth Passengers * Cruise Duration • 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑼𝑩 = Upper Berth Passengers * Cruise Duration • 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻 = Sum of 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩+𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑼𝑩 Supply and quantitative KPIs
  • 55. 55 Considering that ticket revenue can be classified as gross (= with commission) or net (= after commission to agencies) here we have the main KPIs that drive cruise industry decision. Revenue & Occupancy KPIs • 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑳𝑩 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 • NOTE: 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑳𝑩 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎% when 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 = 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 • 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 NOTE: 𝑶𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝑻𝑶𝑻 may be higher than 100% • 𝑵𝑷𝑫 = 𝑵𝒆𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝑫𝒊𝒆𝒎 = Net Revenues per pax day • 𝑵𝑷𝑫 𝑳𝑩 = 𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑳𝑩 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 • 𝑵𝑷𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻 = 𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑻𝑶𝑻 • 𝑹𝑶𝑳𝑩 = 𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 = Revenues per Occupied Lower Berth • 𝒀𝑰𝑬𝑳𝑫 = 𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 (Yield = Rolb if Occupancy Lb 100%)
  • 56. 56 Yield Management is a “typical” and “key” function of a cruise company. • “Revenue on lower berth * Occupancy” is the “magic” formula. Yield Management 𝒀𝑰𝑬𝑳𝑫 = 𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 = 𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 * 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 = 𝑵𝑻𝑹 𝑻𝑶𝑻 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 * 𝑷𝑪𝑫 𝑳𝑩 𝑨𝑳𝑩𝑫 𝒀𝑰𝑬𝑳𝑫 = 𝑹𝑶𝑳𝑩 * 𝑶𝒄𝒄 𝑳𝑩
  • 57. 57 The “cabin” is the “first” sell unit. Source: MSC Grandiosa, www.msccrociere.it. Cabin Categories • Three main cabin categories: Internal, Seaview, Balcony. • Each company design its cabin differentiation: by position (deck – bow/stern) – other typology (Suite, Terrace), … INTERNAL SEAVIEW BALCONY
  • 58. 58 Cruise ships don’t have all the same ship configuration and this dimension is fundamental for the pricing strategy Source: “Pricing and revenue management in the cruise industry: Costa Cruises”, Costa Crociere paper at MEMIT, SDA Bocconi, May 2020. Ship configuration & pricing Strategy Case 1: Costa Victoria (40%/40%/20%) Case 2: Costa Pacifica (40%/20%/40%) Case 3: Costa Smeralda (30%/6%/64%) • Fundamental to protect balconies as they can sold-out easily • Fundamental to remember the ship configuration when defining the strategic pricing • Important to balance demand between inside and balconies • Cabins sold in outside category will be easily upgraded so it is important to sell them only when balcony demand is not enough • Except peak season it will be very difficult to fill-up all balcony cabins with natural demand • It is important to define pricing in order to stimulate demand up-sell
  • 59. 59 In order to maximize revenue in a multi-embarkation model it is fundamental the ship allotment management. Source: “Pricing and revenue management in the cruise industry: Costa Cruises”, Costa Crociere paper at MEMIT, SDA Bocconi, May 2020. Allotment management ALLOTMENT: It defines how total ship capacity is allocated and splitted between the ports called along the itinerary. • Strategic allotment: It is defined by Revenue Analyst in charge of the ship before sales opening according to PY sales, market commitment, sellbale itineraries • Dynamic allotment: It is defined by Revenue Analyst during sales according to sales trends, changes in deployment/market commitment, special operations and market requests. 35% 25% 20% 10% 10% Example of strategic allotment SVN MRS BCN NAP PMO 30% 22%18% 15% 15% Example of final dynamic allotment SVN MRS BCN NAP PMO
  • 60. 60 4P is a usual “frame”: what are key decisions for a cruise company? • Ship set-up / experience • Itinerary / Destination • Market / Product Marketing Mix • Ticket Pricing • Onboard pricing • Price Offer • Sustaining demand and increasing first timer ever but also increase repetition • Trade marketing or consumer marketing? • Mass communication or direct communication: which media mix? • Off-line distribution (travel agents) play a key role • Which role for market place or online travel agency ? • What’s next for Ecommerce? What are the barriers ?
  • 61. 61 A cruise is like a “diamond” in the travel industry: each guest can live its personal experience. Source: “What To Do on a Cruise Ship”, Celebrity Cruises, 2020 – MSC Crociere and Costa Crociere Youtube Channel. Virtual ship visit: what to do on a cruise? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSuv7bGfTuA • Cruise company offers different and various “experiences” onboard and ashore https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4vLikBPSGghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NADOBgzN_ls Costa Smeralda – 21/12/19 – 6.600 paxCelebrity Edge – 9/12/2018 – 3.000 Pax MSC Grandiosa – 9/11/2019 – 6.300 pax
  • 62. 62 Very competitive “Price per Day”: high “value for money”. • Destination and itinerary are the primary decision factors, followed by value for money. • Cruise operators apply different USPs in order to attract customers: • “Food” experience • Excursions offer • Entertainment (Cruising is also a “social” experience) • Shopping • Casino Product QUESTIONS: • Importance of Hotel Operations: an “Holiday” is an experience (based on human feeling). How to keep and increase Net Promoter Score? • Destination or ship? What is more relevant? And for which customers?
  • 63. 63 Pricing is overall “complicated” due to multiple items and variables. • “Entry price” very aggressive but … • Different typology of cabin • Different level of service (eg. food & beverage included/excluded) • Different level of ancillary services (eg. Breakfast in the cabin, …) • “Taxation” and revenue opportunities (eg. Hotel Service Charges) • Very low level of “integration” with other services Price QUESTIONS: • Why companies don’t simplify the offer? • How price system affects distribution ?
  • 64. 64 In order to maximize revenue and satisfy different booking clusters or moments, Costa defined the below pricing structure with strategic, tactical and hided fares. The actual pricing structure in the Italian mkt
  • 65. 65 Main fares structure: Deluxe, All-inclusive & Basic
  • 66. 66 The 3-level strategic pricing is the result of a work started in 2011 and that led to a reduction of the cabin categories from 15 to 3 Pricing models evolution
  • 67. 67 Price Bundling: combining several products or services into a single comprehensive package for an all-inclusive reduced price. Price Bundling PRICE COMPONENTS: • Cruise ticket (including meals) by type of cabins (Inside/Outside/Balcony/Suite) and by market • Beverages (on consumption or packages included in tariff) • H24 cabin service • Breakfast in cabin • Wi-Fi • Mandatory Tips for Cru members (on board or included in tariff) • Excursions • Spa services • …
  • 68. 68 Humans see value in the form of Happiness and Business has the job to deliver that Happiness* *Kevin Kaiser, The Blue Line Imperative, 2013. Dynamic pricing models • The Happiness in Costa Pricing Model is the attractiveness of All-inclusive fare versus the Next Best Alternatives Competitor Price Beverage&Shorex Package Happiness Costa All- inclusive Booking Rules Costa Basic Happiness BookingRules Beverage&Shorex Package
  • 69. 69 Source: Travel Market Report, 2015. Sales Channels - Scenario Packaged Holidays Resort Cruises Booking Channels (in % sul totale) 2014 2013 24 7 43 12 14 22 12 40 17 9 Diretto offline Diretto online Agenzia offline OTA Altro 23 13 36 13 15 24 15 28 20 13 Diretto offline Diretto online Agenzia offline OTA Altro 24 6 62 4 3 24 7 57 9 3 Diretto offline Diretto online Agenzia offline OTA Altro
  • 70. 70 The final link between the Company and the Customer: cruise distribution is very different from other tourism products/packages. • The Market is divided into FIT (Full Indipendent Travel) and Groups (Association, etc. ) • Off-line channels (Travel agents) represents nowadays the main distribution channels • Direct Sales so far are increasing year by year but consider that in mature markets (USA) their penetration is still under 60% • Online Travel Agent play a key role • Which role for global market places? (eg. Booking.com, Voyage Privee, others) Sales Channels (1/3) • Sales channels is a strategic “pillar” also for reduction of CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost). • “Omnichannels Purchasing Experience” will be one of the main strategy for the future.
  • 71. 71 Distribution is different by Country and by Customer. • Prospect and Customer look for a cruise and purchase in different touch points and channels. • Prospect need “reassurance” and finally book with a Travel agent while Customer know the product and are more near to direct channels. Sales Channels (2/3) • Shape of the distribution is very different Country by Country. • Contact Center are for cruises a relevant sales channel and Online Travel Agents are specialized on sales (not only a price comparator). QUESTION • What difference along the channels and what are risk / opportunity for a cruise company?
  • 72. 72 “Distribution” will be more and more strategic in the future. • Each cruise company need to manage its “direct / indirect” balance and the “power of market places”. Sales Channels (3/3) • What’s next in the future?
  • 73. 73 A cruise industry need to continue to target in the next future “new to cruise” – millennials and retired. Promotion WHAT IMPLICATION? • Different media-mix • Digital or physical touchpoints • Discount vs. Loyalty tool WHO IS THE TARGET? It depends by my brand positioning.
  • 74. 74 Why cruise penetration is not exploiting? • High Value for Money • Multiple destinations / one holiday • “Social” experience • Flexible Holiday (every guest can personalized the onboard and ashore experience) Consumer Barriers • Expensive / Price not transparent (hidden costs) • Only “old” people onboard • Crowded and standardized experience
  • 75. 75 Not only perception: a cruise company need a consistent and coherent brand positioning. Source: “Cruise Ship Industry”, Sarah Cassidy, Kailey O’Hagan, Andrew Keith, Flint Geier, 2015. Brand positioning
  • 76. 76 A cruise company need a consistent and coherent brand positioning. Source: needscope method, Kantar TNS UK. • E.g. Kantar TNS needscope method. Brand positioning
  • 77. 77 360° strategic approach guided by a clear and consistent brand positioning across the customer journey. Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017. T.R.U.E. Model • New Product Pillars • New Loyalty Club • New CRM Strategy • New Media Strategy
  • 78. 78 Heavy pressure with a new testimonial. A new Advertising Campaign Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017. CV C V https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f94PsIKlgEg
  • 79. 79 A new Advertising Campaign plus Product pillars Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017.
  • 80. 80 High level of resources invested in the last 2 years in product features focused in gastronomy and entertainment ---------------- target 45% NPS Benvenuti alla felicitಠ- new product features FOOD Gala menu by chef Bruno Barbieri SHOREX «Turisti per Caso» shore excursions ENTERTAINEMENT Talent show onboard «Tú sì que vales» KIDS Fun with Peppa Pig Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2017.
  • 81. 81 From Data analysis to Location analytics Business data Demographics Point of interest Online propensity Location analytics are applicable to virtually anything that can be associated with a “location” to put in relationship different business data. Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2018.
  • 82. 82 GeoIntelligence allows Costa to identify areas with high-potential but still under-penetrated and plan local initiatives. Geointelligence tool Target area selection Micro-area segmentation Partner selection Micro-marketing Source: Costa Crociere Spa, 2018.
  • 83. 83 Current scenario: what’s future for the cruise industry? • Digital Transformation and cruise industry • Asia keeps growing • New product design: Virgin Holidays • Covid-19 “storm” impacts in the short-term • Current European tentative restart: product and implications • What’s future for cruise industry? Let’s discuss about it with a Top Manager Lesson #3
  • 84. 84 Why will be part of the business? Digital Transformation 1 CONNECTIONS 2 DATA 3 INTERACTIONS
  • 85. 85 From Data Driven Company … to Digital ! Cruise Company and Digital • Digital Transformation will have an impact on the overall company, functions and assets. • From mindset to the way of doing things… everything is supposed to change. Internet of Things Artificial Intelligence Machine learning
  • 86. 86 Why deliver a standout digital guest experience? The cruise industry is rapidly evolving to integrate the Internet of Things — with sensors, connected devices, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing — into the experience to change the way guests interact while onboard. Cruise ships like smart cities.
  • 87. 87 • All of these cruise lines, and many others, are betting on a larger audience seeking vacation experiences. • Recent surveys say that everyone, from millennials to new generations, are willing to pay more for experiences than physical goods. Ships are being designed with a forward-looking approach to what’s next.
  • 88. 88 • The Big Idea? A Brand Experience Ecosystem Distribute “wow” moments in the experience to gain a foothold in customer mindshare. Business TechnologyDesign Customer
  • 89. 89 Some example of digitalization Carnival Princess | Ocean medallion Royal Caribbean | Excalibur APP MSC | MSC for Me Costa | Costa App All company – particularly for new constructions – are investing to digitalize guest experience.
  • 90. 90 Costa digital guest experience Integrated on board experience is the next step.
  • 91. 91 First ship exclusively built for Chinese Market. Source: for further details see www.costa.it. The Medi Telegraph., November 2017. • Christening: March 2019 • The 135,500-ton Costa Venezia will have 2,116 cabins for a total of 5,260 passengers. A second sister ship also designed for the Chinese market will be delivered by Fincantieri in 2020. • The design of the ship will be dedicated to the city of Venice. • Chinese guests onboard will enjoy a once-in-a- lifetime experience immersing themselves in a multi- sensory “virtual” trip in Venice, featuring food, art, music and entertainment. Costa Venezia
  • 92. 92 CSSC Carnival Cruise Shipping Limited is the just born joint venture that will sustain the growth of Chinese market. • Carnival Corporation, the world’s largest leisure travel company, has announced the launch of its cruise joint venture with China State Shipbuilding Corporation under the name CSSC Carnival Cruise Shipping Limited. • The new China-based cruise company plans to operate its own fleet to serve Chinese cruise guests by the end of 2019. • The new joint venture will operate with two ships that will be transferred from Costa Cruises, Costa Atlantica and Costa Mediterranea, plus two more new ships that will be built at the Shanghai shipyards thanks to a further agreement between CSSC and Fincantieri. • At the current moment is not known the brand positioning and the company which will drive “sales and marketing operations”. A new Asia Brand
  • 93. 93 Demography is for certain… 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2014 1928-45 1946-64 1965-80 1981-96 Millenial 18-33 years old Silent 69-86 years old Baby Boomer 50-68 years old Generazione X 34-49 years old Demography is one of the “driver” to understand future scenario. • What implication for Product design? • Covid-19 and Demand: what correlation?
  • 94. 94 Millennials are the new target? • “We plan to shake up the cruise industry and deliver a holiday that customers will absolutely love” • Mr McAlpin CEO Virgin Cruises also commented: “Cruise guests deserve something better and different to what is being offered today, and Virgin Cruises is committed to creating breathtaking experiences for them and a new generation of guests.” Will Virgin Cruises Attract Virgin Cruisers?
  • 95. 95 The ship’s official icon will be a topless mermaid. Source: Virgin Press Release, October 2017. Virgin Voyages to launch adults-only cruise experience in 2020 The very first Virgin Voyages cruise will accommodate 2,700 passengers when it finally sets sail in 2020, but none of them will be a child. FIRST-EVER CRUISE SHIP FOR 'MILLENNIALS' WILL 'MAKE HISTORY,' COMPANY SAYS. The company’s decision was “driven by feedback from future sailors and travel professionals who are looking for a more elevated and premium experience, with a few Virgin style surprises.” “sophisticated ship and a transformational experience” for passengers to enjoy both daytime activities and “exciting nightlife.”
  • 97. 97 Covid-19 pandemic - starting from China end of 2019 - dramatically spread all over the world and lead cruise industry to a total stop. • Historically the Cruise Industry is very resilient and was able to recovery every past crisis leveraging on different plus as flexibility, solid financial structure, multiple markets and management capabilities. • Covid-19 pandemic generated an unpredictable situation: • Huge effort to recovery ships, guests and crew • All areas locked-down • All main market (USA, Europe, Asia, Australia) simultaneously stopped • All Corporations / brands operations stopped • Product and experience not allowed / deliverable • Timing for restoring operations not certain / unpredictable COVID-19 a “storm” on cruise industry
  • 98. 98 Source: “Return to Service”, Cruise industry News, Sep-2020. What CEOs declared and key facts Preserve “cash” and work on a possible “restart” have been the main priorities. CEO Carnival CEO Royal Caribbean CEO NCL CEO NCL April, 2020 CEO Carnival April, 2020 October, 2020
  • 99. 99 Big Corporations need huge amount of cash to survive during this “No revenues” period. Fonte: Fineco Bank. Data as of 16th October 2020. QUESTIONS: • How long supply can sustain this forced stop? • Crisis may affect also U.S.A. historical leadership? Financial impact -67% -67% -45%
  • 100. 100 6 months of worldwide full stop of cruise operations. COVID-19 impact Feb-20 4th February 2020 Diamond Princess was the first cruise ship to have a major outbreak on board, with the ship quarantined at Yokohama from 4 February 2020 for approximately one month. July-20 Cruise Companies start registering many Covid-19 positive guests onboard. The industry run into a stop of operations. Mar-20 30th March 2020. Costa Diadema, flagship of the company, eventually has been allowed to dock in Piombino (LI) after almost all other ports refused it. Aug-20 Sept-20 16th July 2020. MSC restart operations from Genoa with its flagshio Grandiosa for a Med 7 days itinerary in the mediterranean. 6th September 2020. Costa Crociere restart operations from Trieste with Costa Deliziosa with a new product «Italy/Italians only» 25th July 2020. TUI, is the first company to restart operations with Mein Schiff 2 for a 3 days round trip (no calls) from Hamburg. Dream Cruises (Genting) on 26th July restarts its operations from Hong Kong. Hundreds of ships are eventually docked all around the world. Cruise Companies need to bring back home their guest and their crew. • Company worked on “Safety Protocols” and were very committed on restart operations. • Despite this health situation and weak demand are suggesting a “gradual” deploy of ships.
  • 101. 101 There are many more vessels mid-construction, commissioned to meet the demand that characterized years of growth pre-2020, back when the $150 billion industry was booming. Source: Cruise ships being dismantled and scrapped for parts, FOX 5, New York, 14th October, 2020. See also CNN Travel, 7th October 2020. • The result? An excess of ships. • In a somber sign of the times, the world’s largest cruise operator is selling 12% of its fleet as the coronavirus pandemic continues to drown demand for travel. • Carnival selling 18 cruise ships as coronavirus pandemic continues (September 2020). • "I don't know that many cruise lines in the world are looking to buy ships right now," Bill Miller, a cruise ship historian, "I would say that would be very unlikely. The next best buyer would be the scrappers." Covid-19 impact on capacity and secondary hand market Aerial Aliaga ship recycling port on October 02, 2020 in Izmir, Turkey.
  • 102. 102 Despite the crisis and 2021 booking trends are positive. • People love cruising and they can not wait for: the issue caused by covid-19 is not how to boost demand but when cruises will be back again. • Positive trend slow down with the second wave of the pandemic. 2021 booking trend
  • 103. 103 As of 17th October 2020 the pandemic at global level is spread and strong. • USA – the main cruise market – has been stopped until 31st October 2020. Pandemic curve and cruise plan
  • 104. 104 During summer – thanks to the good trend of pandemic in the main market (Germany) and main destination (Italy) – cruise company worked hard on a possible restart. • xxxx Pandemic curve and cruise plan • Tui, Aida, MSC and Costa worked hard on a restart plan and eventually succeed on it. • Particularly in Italy the scenario was positive and thanks to rigid safety protocols the government approved cruise restart on 7th of August. • Unfortunately in the last 14 days pandemic come back stronger …
  • 105. 105 Example – AIDA onboard rules Source: “Return to Service”, Cruise industry News, Sep-2020. • Aida will be the fifth cruise line to restart operation after (Tui, Genting, MSC and Costa) on 17th October 2020 with a Med7 itinerary called “La bella Italia”. New Product
  • 107. 107 Costa Crociere “restart” product. Costa Safety Protocol as a pillar of the current “new way of cruising”. Cruises have already changed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQPq1uOVjUA
  • 108. 108 Only 8 ships (4 companies) are back to cruises in October 2020 with reduced capacity and new product design. Supply Oct-20 RESTART DATE # SHIPS Region 25th July 16th August 6th September 17th October 2 ships 2 ships 3 ships 1 ship North Europe Mediterranean Med Mediterranean Mediterranean QUESTIONS: • What about capacity? • What about source markets? • Is it a sustainable business (BEP)?
  • 109. 109 MSC focus on safety and price while Costa on brand and long term booking. Strong TV advertising and different strategies for the restarting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ-aB3RZY_A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn9o0IzsAhQ QUESTIONS: • What about prices and occupancy?
  • 110. 110 Let’s talk about it with an Industry Top Manager. Cruise Industry: what future? SOME “BIG” QUESTIONS: • Will cruise industry survive? All players will overcome Covid-19 crisis? • Cruises vs. Tour operating: what dramatically affect more cruises than other tourism and leisure product? • Does some player/brand have some advantage in this crisis period and why? • What about the product of tomorrow? • What about deployment? What changes can we predict? • Price level: will the companies further reduce prices to stimulate demand? • What about distribution? Ecommerce will have an increase?
  • 111. THANK YOU ! Mirco Vassallo Mobile +39 3356416197 Email m.vassallo@libero.it
  • 112. 112 Below some of the sources mentioned and utilized in the paper. • “Cruise Ship Orderbook”, Cruise Industry News, October, 2020. • “2018 Global Passenger Report”, CLIA, 2019. • “2019 Cruise Trends & Industry Outlook”, CLIA, 2019. • “Return to Service”, Cruise industry News, Sep-2020. • “Creare valore condiviso”, Genoa University, Hamburg University, Deloitte & Touche, 2018. • Cruise Market Watch, www.cruisemarketwatch.com, 2019. • “2018 Europe Market Report ”, CLIA, 2019. • “The European market potential for cruise tourism”, Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2019. • “USA Cruise Travel Report”, CLIA, January 2018. • “Cruise Ship Industry”, Sarah Cassidy, Kailey O’Hagan, Andrew Keith, Flint Geier, 2015. • “Analyzing the supply chain strategy of the cruise industry: the case of a small cruise company”, University of the Aegean, G. Vaggelas, Ioannis Lagoudis, 2010. • Cruise Insights Magazine. • Cruise Industry News. Bibliography