• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy
 

Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy

on

  • 781 views

Presented at EGU 2013, Session CL5.8 "Climate Services - Underpinning Science"

Presented at EGU 2013, Session CL5.8 "Climate Services - Underpinning Science"

Statistics

Views

Total Views
781
Views on SlideShare
506
Embed Views
275

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0

2 Embeds 275

http://www.matteodefelice.name 274
http://www.linkedin.com 1

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

CC Attribution License

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy Presentation Transcript

    • Application of seasonal climateforecasts to electricity demandM. De Felice, A. Alessandri, F. Catalano - ENEA, Climate Modeling & Impacts LaboratoryEGU General Assembly 2013
    • Original questionEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Original question Can we predict this?EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand ForecastEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditionsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 daysEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011) Why not using them for a smarter/better/more efficient decision-making in energy sector?EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Main Limits✤ Seasonal Forecast accuracy over Europe✤ Power systems are not stationary✤ Critical influence of economic factors on seasonal time scalesEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Our Work✤ Assess the potential use of seasonal climate forecasts over Italy✤ Summer (JJ) 1990-2007 4 x 10 3 2.5 GWh 2 1.5 1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 monthsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand in Italy 1996-2002 North-West and SouthEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand in Italy 1996-2002 North-West and South 2003-2010EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Electricity Demand in Italy✤ June and July average demand (provided by TERNA)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Climate Data✤ 2-metres temperature from: I) ECMWF ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis II) ECMWF System4 (issued in May)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Our Approach Z = AS 2 3 2 3 dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007 6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7 6 7 6 7Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7 4 . . 5 4 . . 5 dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) A = Z˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Our Approach Z = AS 2 3 2 3 dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007 6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7 6 7 6 7Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7 4 . . 5 4 . . 5 dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) A = Z˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Our Approach ˜ ˜ Z = AS Main temperature modes/patternsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Bootstrap✤ Out-of-sample error estimation via bootstrap procedure #1 #2 ... #6000 1990 2004 1993 1996 1991 1992 1992 ... 2001 TRAINING 1992 1992 2001 2000 . . . . . . . . . Sampling with replacement . . . 2007 1999 TESTING 2001 ... 1994 2001 1990 2006 Samples not selected ... 1993 2007 2004EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Results ERA-INTERIM System4 - MayEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • ResultsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • Next steps✤ Use of seasonal forecasts issued in March - June✤ Replace ERA-INTERIM with observations (CRU TS)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
    • ✤ 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1991/1 1991/4 1991/7 1991/10 1992/1EGU Meeting 2013 1992/4 1992/7 1992/10 1993/1 1993/4 1993/7 1993/10 1994/1 AT 1994/4 1994/7 1994/10 1995/1 1995/4 Next steps BE 1995/7 1995/10 1996/1 1996/4 1996/7 1996/10 CH 1997/1 1997/4 1997/7 1997/10 1998/1 DE 1998/4 1998/7 1998/10 1999/1 1999/4 ES 1999/7 1999/10 2000/1 2000/4 2000/7 2000/10 FR 2001/1 2001/4 2001/7 2001/10 2002/1 GR 2002/4 2002/7 2002/10 2003/1 2003/4 IT 2003/7 2003/10 2004/1 2004/4 2004/7 2004/10 LU 2005/1 2005/4 Extensions to other European (ENTSOE) countries 2005/7 2005/10 2006/1 NL 2006/4 2006/7 2006/10 2007/1 2007/4 PT 2007/7 2007/10 2008/1 2008/4De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand 2008/7 2008/10 2009/1 2009/4 2009/7 2009/10 2010/1 2010/4 2010/7 2010/10 2011/1
    • http://matteodefelice.name/research www.utmea.enea.it matteo.defelice@enea.it