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Application of seasonal climate forecasts for electricity demand forecasting: a case study on Italy

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Presented at EGU 2013, Session CL5.8 "Climate Services - Underpinning Science"

Presented at EGU 2013, Session CL5.8 "Climate Services - Underpinning Science"

Published in: Technology, Business

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  • 1. Application of seasonal climateforecasts to electricity demandM. De Felice, A. Alessandri, F. Catalano - ENEA, Climate Modeling & Impacts LaboratoryEGU General Assembly 2013
  • 2. Original questionEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 3. Original question Can we predict this?EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 4. Electricity Demand ForecastEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 5. Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditionsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 6. Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 daysEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 7. Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 8. Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 9. Electricity Demand Forecast✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review, 2011) Why not using them for a smarter/better/more efficient decision-making in energy sector?EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 10. Main Limits✤ Seasonal Forecast accuracy over Europe✤ Power systems are not stationary✤ Critical influence of economic factors on seasonal time scalesEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 11. Our Work✤ Assess the potential use of seasonal climate forecasts over Italy✤ Summer (JJ) 1990-2007 4 x 10 3 2.5 GWh 2 1.5 1 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 monthsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 12. Electricity Demand in Italy 1996-2002 North-West and SouthEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 13. Electricity Demand in Italy 1996-2002 North-West and South 2003-2010EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 14. Electricity Demand in Italy✤ June and July average demand (provided by TERNA)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 15. Climate Data✤ 2-metres temperature from: I) ECMWF ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis II) ECMWF System4 (issued in May)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 16. Our Approach Z = AS 2 3 2 3 dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007 6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7 6 7 6 7Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7 4 . . 5 4 . . 5 dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) A = Z˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 17. Our Approach Z = AS 2 3 2 3 dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007 6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7 6 7 6 7Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7 4 . . 5 4 . . 5 dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) A = Z˜ ˜ ˜ ˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 18. Our Approach ˜ ˜ Z = AS Main temperature modes/patternsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 19. Bootstrap✤ Out-of-sample error estimation via bootstrap procedure #1 #2 ... #6000 1990 2004 1993 1996 1991 1992 1992 ... 2001 TRAINING 1992 1992 2001 2000 . . . . . . . . . Sampling with replacement . . . 2007 1999 TESTING 2001 ... 1994 2001 1990 2006 Samples not selected ... 1993 2007 2004EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 20. Results ERA-INTERIM System4 - MayEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 21. ResultsEGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 22. Next steps✤ Use of seasonal forecasts issued in March - June✤ Replace ERA-INTERIM with observations (CRU TS)EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
  • 23. ✤ 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1991/1 1991/4 1991/7 1991/10 1992/1EGU Meeting 2013 1992/4 1992/7 1992/10 1993/1 1993/4 1993/7 1993/10 1994/1 AT 1994/4 1994/7 1994/10 1995/1 1995/4 Next steps BE 1995/7 1995/10 1996/1 1996/4 1996/7 1996/10 CH 1997/1 1997/4 1997/7 1997/10 1998/1 DE 1998/4 1998/7 1998/10 1999/1 1999/4 ES 1999/7 1999/10 2000/1 2000/4 2000/7 2000/10 FR 2001/1 2001/4 2001/7 2001/10 2002/1 GR 2002/4 2002/7 2002/10 2003/1 2003/4 IT 2003/7 2003/10 2004/1 2004/4 2004/7 2004/10 LU 2005/1 2005/4 Extensions to other European (ENTSOE) countries 2005/7 2005/10 2006/1 NL 2006/4 2006/7 2006/10 2007/1 2007/4 PT 2007/7 2007/10 2008/1 2008/4De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand 2008/7 2008/10 2009/1 2009/4 2009/7 2009/10 2010/1 2010/4 2010/7 2010/10 2011/1
  • 24. http://matteodefelice.name/research www.utmea.enea.it matteo.defelice@enea.it