Presented at EGU 2013, Session CL5.8 "Climate Services - Underpinning Science"

1. Application of seasonal climate
forecasts to electricity demand
M. De Felice, A. Alessandri, F. Catalano - ENEA, Climate Modeling & Impacts Laboratory
EGU General Assembly 2013

2. Original question
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

3. Original question
Can we predict this?
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

4. Electricity Demand Forecast
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

5. Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

6. Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

7. Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et
al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review,
2011)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

8. Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et
al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review,
2011)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

9. Electricity Demand Forecast
✤ Electricity sector sensitive to climatic conditions
✤ Currently only climatological data are used for time-scales >14 days
✤ Seasonal Forecasts have improved in the last decades (see Stockdale et
al., Climate Dynamics 2011 and Alessandri et al., Monthly Weather Review,
2011)
Why not using them for a smarter/better/more efficient
decision-making in energy sector?
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

10. Main Limits
✤ Seasonal Forecast accuracy over Europe
✤ Power systems are not stationary
✤ Critical influence of economic factors on
seasonal time scales
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

11. Our Work
✤ Assess the potential use of seasonal climate forecasts over Italy
✤ Summer (JJ) 1990-2007
4
x 10
3
2.5
GWh
2
1.5
1
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
months
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

12. Electricity Demand in Italy
1996-2002
North-West and South
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

13. Electricity Demand in Italy
1996-2002
North-West and South
2003-2010
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

14. Electricity Demand in Italy
✤ June and July average demand (provided by TERNA)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

15. Climate Data
✤ 2-metres temperature from:
I) ECMWF ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis
II) ECMWF System4 (issued in May)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

16. Our Approach
Z = AS
2 3 2 3
dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007
6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7
6 7 6 7
Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7
4 .
. 5 4 .
. 5
dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
A = Z˜ ˜ ˜
˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

17. Our Approach
Z = AS
2 3 2 3
dN W,1990 ... dN W,2007 t1,1990 ... t1,2007
6 dN,1990 ... dN W,2007 7 6 t2,1990 ... t2,2007 7
6 7 6 7
Z=6 . 7 S=6 . 7
4 .
. 5 4 .
. 5
dI2,1990 ... dI2,2007 tn⇥k,1990 ... tn⇥k,2007
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
A = Z˜ ˜ ˜
˜ S0 (SS0 ) 1
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

18. Our Approach
˜ ˜
Z = AS
Main temperature modes/patterns
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

19. Bootstrap
✤ Out-of-sample error estimation via bootstrap procedure
#1 #2 ... #6000
1990 2004 1993 1996
1991 1992 1992 ... 2001
TRAINING
1992 1992 2001 2000
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
Sampling
with replacement . . .
2007 1999
TESTING
2001 ... 1994
2001 1990 2006
Samples
not selected
...
1993 2007 2004
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

20. Results
ERA-INTERIM System4 - May
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

21. Results
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

22. Next steps
✤ Use of seasonal forecasts issued in March - June
✤ Replace ERA-INTERIM with observations (CRU TS)
EGU Meeting 2013 De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand

23. ✤
0
10000
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30000
40000
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60000
70000
1991/1
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1991/7
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EGU Meeting 2013
1992/4
1992/7
1992/10
1993/1
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AT
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Next steps
BE
1995/7
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CH
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DE
1998/4
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ES
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FR
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GR
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IT
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LU
2005/1
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Extensions to other European (ENTSOE) countries
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NL
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2007/1
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PT
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De Felice et al. — Application of seasonal climate forecasts to electricity demand
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24. http://matteodefelice.name/research
www.utmea.enea.it
matteo.defelice@enea.it