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Farmers Risk Perception of Climate Change

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Bekki Griffiths, PhD student at the University of Worcester, discusses her research so far on assessing how farmers perceptions of climate change are formed.

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Farmers Risk Perception of Climate Change

  1. 1. Farmers’ risk perception of climate changeBekki GriffithsInstitute for Science and the Environment,University of Worcester
  2. 2. Farmer’s Risk Perception of climate change1. Research project Background2. Risk perception3. Literature Review findings4. ‘Cultural-behavourial’ theoretical framework5. Methods6. Metdata preliminary findings7. Newspaper analysis8. Conclusion (ITV News 2012)
  3. 3. By 2080… Research background+1.8 c - 8 c Summer +3-70% Winter and - 60%Temperature Summer Rainfall Soil erosion Wheat Yield +40-140% Water depletion from irrigation Sugar Beet +20-70% Flooding of farmland Grass +20-50% New Pests & Diseases? New Crops? Animal heat stressYet little research so far has focused upon farmer’s in the UK …
  4. 4. Research Project• Aim: to assess how farmers perceptions of climate change are formed, and the relationship of this with risk mitigation actions.• Three counties: Worcestershire, Shropshire and Herefordshire• Completed literature review and conceptual framework
  5. 5. What is Risk Perception?Risk perception = the way in which an individualevaluates their level of risk in view of theinformation they have received, observed andrecalled.
  6. 6. Literature review findings• Food security in the UK could be under threat.• UK & Europe left behind? Considerable research has focused upon the developing world, Canada & in the USA.• Climate change adaption is not a linear process from receiving of information to action.• Three key lessons from the developing world: local knowledge, Participatory Rural Appraisal & livelihoods framework.
  7. 7. ‘Cultural-behavioural’ theory• Devised a ‘cultural’ behavioural’ theory to allow for the consideration of farmers decision making as individual part of a wider cultural society.• This affects the way in which farmers behave in practices, information receiving and seeking and the actions taken as a result of this• Allows both quantitative and qualitative methodologies.
  8. 8. • Phase 1: MethodsRank of Shawbury Airfrost per month 1982extreme 30 Average Monthly minimum temperatures: decadal comparison 1983 1984event 14 Ross-on-wye Average maximum temperature: decadal R max temp (c) Year Date month 1985 comparison 1986 1987R1 25 12 25 1990 3 8 1988 35 1989 1990R2 2006 19 7 Average ofof Average D1 1991 35 2010 min 1992 20 1982-1991 1993R3 1995 1 8 33.2 Sum of Air Frost days 1994 Average ofof Average D2 1995 Average of D1 (1986-1991) Temperature (°c) 8 1996R4 1990 2 8 1992-2001 33.1 Temperature (°c) 15 15 min 1997 1998 Average of D2 (1992-2001) 1999R5 6 2003 9 8 Average ofof 33.1 Average D3 2000 10 10 2002-2011 2001 Average of D3 (2002-2011) min 2002R6 4 1995 2 8 2003 33 2004 2005R7 5 5 1995 3 8 32.8 2006 2 2007 2008R8 2006 18 7 32.5 2009 0 2010 0R9 0 Jan JAN FEB Feb MAR Mar APR2003 Apr MAY JUN May JUL Jun AUG15 Jul SEP Aug OCT NOV Sep DEC Oct 7 Nov Dec 32.5 2011 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DECR10 1989 21 7 31.9
  9. 9. • Phase 2: Methods
  10. 10. Methods• Phase 3:
  11. 11. Next Steps• To conduct newspaper analysis using Nvivo. Before Christmas.• Analyse relationship between recorded data & newspaper reports of this• Conduct preliminary scoping interviews
  12. 12. Thank you & any questions or ideas? Rebecca.griffiths@worc.ac.ukThe Guardian (2007)

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