3. Abrupt climate changes
• Abrupt climate changes: takes place so
rapidly and unexpectedly that human or
natural systems have difficulty adapting to
it.
7. Microclimate
• Climatic condition in relatively small area:
street, square, neighbourhood, city….
• Depends on
– Location in specific climate zone
– Topography
– Distance to water
– Elements of built environment
– Human activities
– Etc.
9. Outline
• Climate change and changes in travel NL-
2050
• Measurement of weather parameters
• Weather, perceptions and emotions
• Planning perspectives
• Conclusions and discussion
10. CESAR
Climate and Environmental change
and Sustainable Accessibility of the
Randstad
http://www.nwo.nl/en/research-and-
results/research-projects/02/2300156402.html
11. Challenges CESAR I
To unravel the complex relationships
between the spatial configuration of land
uses and infrastructures, meteorological
processes and behavioural decisions
concerning mobility patterns and their use
in PSS.
12. Challenges CESAR II
To develop effective knowledge transfer
mechanisms and improve participative
planning and spatial governance to actively
support the use of PSS for strategic spatial
planning processes.
16. Seasonal projections 2050
Spring
-Warmer
-Overall wetter
Autumn
-Warmer
-Rain falls over fewer days
Winter
-Milder
-Overall wetter
-Heavier precipitation
Summer
-Hotter
-Longer dry periods
-Heavier rain showers
17. • Selection of seasons within the last decade
representing current climate
• Selection of seasons within the last decade
representing projected 2050 climate
• Analyzing mobility patterns in these selected
seasons for the Randstad
• Dutch National Travel Survey
Methodology
18. Results
• Overall: increased attractiveness of cycling and decrease of the car
• Winter(milder and wetter): growth in use of cycling and walking
• Summer (hotter, drier and extreme precipitation): more car and less use of
active modes
• Shoulder seasons: contrasting results
19. Percent changes in number of trips per person per day
for different activity types (2050 compared to present)
Results activity types
22. Observed weather conditions
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
- 1 0
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
Precipitationinmm/windspeedinm/s
Maximumairtemperaturein˚C
W in d s p e e d ( m / s )
P r e c ip it a t io n
T a _ m a x ( o b s e r v e d )
T a _ m a x ( 1 9 8 0 - 2 0 1 0 )
A u g u s t S e p t e m b e r O c t o b e r N o v e m b e r D e c e m b e r J a n u a r y F e b r u a r y
W in d S p e e d
P r e c ip it a t io n
T a ( m a x ) , o b s e r v e d
T a ( m a x ) , 1 9 8 0 - 2 0 1 0
S n o w C o v e r
24. The mean radiant
temperature
• The mean radiant temperature sums
up all short-wave radiation fluxes
(direct, diffuse and reflected) and long-
wave radiation fluxes (emitted) from
the surroundings to which the human
body is exposed to
• The main meteorological
parameter influencing the
human energy balance and
the thermal comfort
26. Clear, hot and calm summer day
Cloudy and calm autumn day
Weather change: from clear and
calm to cloudy and windy
- Tmrt is significantly higher than the
Ta (+30˚C)
- Tmrt is higher than the Ta (+15˚C)
- Tmrt explains much of the daily
variations in how we perceive the
thermal conditions (PET)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
TemperatureC
Ta Tmrt PET
Tmrt
Ta
PET 21 September 2012
- a cloudy day no precipitation, mean wind speed 2.6 m/s (1.1 m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
TemperatureC
Ta Tmrt PET
Ta
Tmrt
PET
14 August 2012
- semi-cloudy day no precipitation, mean wind speed 1.3 m/s (1.1m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
TemperatureC
Ta Tmrt PET
Ta
PET
Tmrt
28. Temperatures and mortality
• Models using mean radiant temperature
predict an overall much better fit with
mortality in all ages than models using air
temperature
35. Urban heat island
Esp. over night built-up areas are
significantly warmer than
surrounding rural areas
Physical'mechanisms'
6/13*
Long*wave*trapping*
Night'8me'
Short*wave*shadow*effects*
Day'8me'
Which%of%the%processes%is%more%important%and%when?%
39. Planning Support System
• Developing and testing
multidimensional framework
• Aims of PSS
• Improving planning process
• Improving outcomes
• Experimental tests of Urban
Strategy (US)
Title
Urban Strategy Experiment No1
Group 2(3 persons)
The second group consisted of three male urban planning
mobility studies. During the introduction of Urban Strate
legend that is used in the traffic intensity map. Anothe
borders of the model: what can(‘t) it do ?
40. Conclusions and discussion
• Abrupt and adverse weather changes
• Gradual and subtle changes in weather
conditions
– Changes in lifestyles and related activity and
travel behaviour
– Changes in population composition of cities
• Responding to climate change is not only
matter of infrastructural and technological
innovation but complex process of societal
transformations (LERU, 2013)
