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Cycling as everyday mobility
Experiences in The Netherlands and
potential lessons for China
Luca Bertolini
University of A...
Cycling, why bother?
• Together with walking most environmentally
sustainable transport mode
• Clean, quiet, space efficie...
Share of cycling as percentage of all trips in 14 countries
(Buehler and Pucher, 2012)
To see what a world where cycling i...
• Gaining insight-1: who, what for, and where is
cycling in the Netherlands?
Who?
• No major differences by:
– Sex
– Household composition
– Income
– Education levels
The share of cycling is high among children, peaks at
teen-age, then declines and stabilizes, and falls past 75
Age group ...
Cycling share growing among the younger and
the older generations
Changes in cycling share by age group 1985–2007
(NTS 198...
Migrants cycle less than natives, those with a
non-western background much less
Cycling share
Total 27
Native Dutch 28
Wes...
Growing, possibly because of
diminished car-orientation,
studying longer, forming a
family later
How to maintain?
Low, pos...
What for?
Cycling share
Total 27
Work 25
Education 46
Shopping 29
Leisure 23
Dutch cycle for all purposes, but (much) more
for educa...
Where?
Cycling share
Total 27
Very highly urbanized 27
Highly urbanized 26
Moderately urbanized 28
Less urbanized 27
Not urbanize...
In cities, the share of cycling is growing,
in rural areas it is declining
Urban Rural
1994-96 2007-09 1994-96 2007-09
Cyc...
Differences in cycling volumes are becoming
much greater
Cycling volumes by urbanization rate 1994–2012
(NTS 2012 / Statis...
Growing, because of
more, and younger
people moving to cities,
or staying there longer
How to accommodate
the growth?
Decl...
Beyond the general patterns, large differences at
the individual city level
Cycling share in medium sized Dutch cities, 20...
• What explains individual differences?
• Gaining insight-2: what is the role of policy in
the performance of cycling in T...
Conceptual model
Performance measures
(change in)
Cycling share
Cycling safety
Perception of cycling
conditions
Critical s...
Hardware - pull conditions
Cycling network quantity
Cycling network quality
Cycling network safety
Cycling network facilit...
Software conditions
Educating children
Educating adults
Marketing campaigns with incentive
Marketing campaigns without inc...
Orgware conditions
Formulation of policy goals
Implementation of policy measures
Financial sources for cycling policy
Allo...
Social context
Population size
Number of households
Composition of households
Spatial context
Number of destinations withi...
• Cycling shares have been increasing in
cities characterized by…
Hardware
- an increase in the speed of bike trips relati...
• Cycling safety has been increasing in
cities characterized by…
Hardware
- an increase of on-street car parking tariffs a...
• The perception of cycling conditions
has been improving in cities
characterized by…
Hardware
- enlargement of the area o...
• Overall, adding to the literature:
– Both pull (pro-bike) and push (anti-car) hardware
– Not only hardware
– Combination...
Also for China?
The potential benefits seem evident,
but can it be done?
• Chinese cities now, reminding of cities in
Western Europe in th...
Share of cycling in all trips in selected European cities,
1920-1995
(Bruheze & Veraart, 1999)
Amsterdam 1969: modernizing the city,
facilitating the car
33
“Stop the child murder”
“Safe pedestrian and bike paths”
“Stay out our neighborhood”
““Together with the neighborhoods we can also
make plans!”
Amsterdam, 2013: street priorities reassessed
Amsterdam, 2013: the urban fabric/mix preserved
Not only in the centre:
Amsterdam, main cycle network
Not only in the centre:
Amsterdam, functional mix at street level
Services
Employment
Residential
Also in new developments: e.g. Houten new town
Houten: main cycle network
Cycle paths
Shared roads
Main roads
Railways
(Zhao, 2014)
China, reversing the trend?
Share of cycling in all trips in major Chinese
cities, 1986-2011
China: reassessing priorities on streets?
Guangzhou
China: preserving the urban fabric/mix?
Guangzhou
China: also out of centre & in new developments?
?
“Not for Chinese cities”
• “Trips too long”
– Many trips are within bike range (3-6 km at
leisurely pace)
– And: more trip...
Innovation-1: the e-bike
Innovation-1: the e-bike
• In The Netherlands, by now around half of the
bike-km of those aged 65 or more are by e-bike
Innovation-2: bike highways
potential
existing
potential
under development
potentialpotentialpotentialpotential
Combination: bike-train
47%
Combination: bike-train
12%
• Why so successful?
• Train fast, bike flexible
– Faster than walk-train
– More flexible than bus/tram-train
• Competitiv...
• “Not enough space”
– Bike 7 x more space efficient than car (10 x when
parked)
– Bike 1,5 more space efficient than bus
• “Air too polluted”
– Not cycling, but pollution is the problem
– Pollution problem for everybody, not only cyclists
– Cy...
• “Too unsafe”
– It is not, when infrastructure, laws, attitudes and
numbers are there
Risk of death from traffic accidents in
The Netherlands 2010-2012
Deaths per Bike Car
billion trips 32,6 37,4
billion mins...
Thanks, let’s discuss!
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  1. 1. Cycling as everyday mobility Experiences in The Netherlands and potential lessons for China Luca Bertolini University of Amsterdam
  2. 2. Cycling, why bother? • Together with walking most environmentally sustainable transport mode • Clean, quiet, space efficient • Contributes to, rather than detracts from the quality of public space • Inexpensive, for both the individual and the public • Healthy • Fun • Cool
  3. 3. Share of cycling as percentage of all trips in 14 countries (Buehler and Pucher, 2012) To see what a world where cycling is a significant part of everyday mobility would look like , The Netherlands is the place to go 27%
  4. 4. • Gaining insight-1: who, what for, and where is cycling in the Netherlands?
  5. 5. Who?
  6. 6. • No major differences by: – Sex – Household composition – Income – Education levels
  7. 7. The share of cycling is high among children, peaks at teen-age, then declines and stabilizes, and falls past 75 Age group Cycling share Total 27 0–11 years 39 12–17 years 63 18–29 years 21 30–39 years 19 40–49 years 22 50–64 years 23 65–74 years 20 ≥ 75 years 13 Share of cycling in total trips by age group (NTS 2010/2011)
  8. 8. Cycling share growing among the younger and the older generations Changes in cycling share by age group 1985–2007 (NTS 1985-2007)
  9. 9. Migrants cycle less than natives, those with a non-western background much less Cycling share Total 27 Native Dutch 28 Western migrant 25 Non-Western migrant 18 Share of cycling in total trips by ethnic background (NTS 2010/2011)
  10. 10. Growing, possibly because of diminished car-orientation, studying longer, forming a family later How to maintain? Low, possibly because of lack of habit and status How to stimulate? Growing, possibly because of better health, more active lifestyle How to facilitate?
  11. 11. What for?
  12. 12. Cycling share Total 27 Work 25 Education 46 Shopping 29 Leisure 23 Dutch cycle for all purposes, but (much) more for education, and (somewhat) less for leisure Share of cycling by trip purpose (NTS 2010/2011)
  13. 13. Where?
  14. 14. Cycling share Total 27 Very highly urbanized 27 Highly urbanized 26 Moderately urbanized 28 Less urbanized 27 Not urbanized 23 Dutch cycle in all spatial contexts, more in urbanized than in non urbanized areas Share of cycling by urbanization rate (NTS 2010/2011)
  15. 15. In cities, the share of cycling is growing, in rural areas it is declining Urban Rural 1994-96 2007-09 1994-96 2007-09 Cycling share 25% 27% 27% 25% Changes in cycling share by urbanization rate 1994–2009 (NTS 1994-2009)
  16. 16. Differences in cycling volumes are becoming much greater Cycling volumes by urbanization rate 1994–2012 (NTS 2012 / Statistics Netherlands 1994–2012)
  17. 17. Growing, because of more, and younger people moving to cities, or staying there longer How to accommodate the growth? Declining, because of people leaving, especially young people, and because jobs and services are thinning out How to stem the decline?
  18. 18. Beyond the general patterns, large differences at the individual city level Cycling share in medium sized Dutch cities, 2010-2012 (NTS 2010-2012)
  19. 19. • What explains individual differences? • Gaining insight-2: what is the role of policy in the performance of cycling in The Netherlands?
  20. 20. Conceptual model Performance measures (change in) Cycling share Cycling safety Perception of cycling conditions Critical success factors (change in) Hardware - pull conditions Hardware - push conditions Software conditions Orgware conditions Social context Spatial context -Changes since 2000 -In 22 mid sized cities -By means of Rough Set Analysis
  21. 21. Hardware - pull conditions Cycling network quantity Cycling network quality Cycling network safety Cycling network facilities (parking) Hardware - push conditions Cycling network speed relative to car Car parking tariffs Area size with car parking regulation
  22. 22. Software conditions Educating children Educating adults Marketing campaigns with incentive Marketing campaigns without incentive
  23. 23. Orgware conditions Formulation of policy goals Implementation of policy measures Financial sources for cycling policy Allowing scope for experimental measures Policy adaptability Institutional arrangement of cycling policy Involvement of actors outside policy arena Relationship between actors inside and outside policy arena Levels of citizen participation Leadership
  24. 24. Social context Population size Number of households Composition of households Spatial context Number of destinations within 3 km
  25. 25. • Cycling shares have been increasing in cities characterized by… Hardware - an increase in the speed of bike trips relative to car trips Orgware - successful in implementing most of the proposed interventions - high levels of citizen participation - a combination of the above factors
  26. 26. • Cycling safety has been increasing in cities characterized by… Hardware - an increase of on-street car parking tariffs and enlargement of the area of paid on-street car parking - an increase in #crossings where cyclists have priority - an increase in % asphalt/tarmac on bike paths Software - giving much attention to cycling education for children Orgware - high degree of flexibility in policy - authoritative (or charismatic) leaders
  27. 27. • The perception of cycling conditions has been improving in cities characterized by… Hardware - enlargement of the area of paid on-street car parking - an increase in the supply of bicycle parking facilities at stations areas Orgware - high levels of citizen participation - successful in implementing most of the proposed interventions - authoritative (or charismatic) leaders - much scope for experimental interventions
  28. 28. • Overall, adding to the literature: – Both pull (pro-bike) and push (anti-car) hardware – Not only hardware – Combinations important
  29. 29. Also for China?
  30. 30. The potential benefits seem evident, but can it be done? • Chinese cities now, reminding of cities in Western Europe in the 1960s
  31. 31. Share of cycling in all trips in selected European cities, 1920-1995 (Bruheze & Veraart, 1999)
  32. 32. Amsterdam 1969: modernizing the city, facilitating the car
  33. 33. 33 “Stop the child murder” “Safe pedestrian and bike paths”
  34. 34. “Stay out our neighborhood” ““Together with the neighborhoods we can also make plans!”
  35. 35. Amsterdam, 2013: street priorities reassessed
  36. 36. Amsterdam, 2013: the urban fabric/mix preserved
  37. 37. Not only in the centre: Amsterdam, main cycle network
  38. 38. Not only in the centre: Amsterdam, functional mix at street level Services Employment Residential
  39. 39. Also in new developments: e.g. Houten new town
  40. 40. Houten: main cycle network Cycle paths Shared roads Main roads Railways
  41. 41. (Zhao, 2014) China, reversing the trend? Share of cycling in all trips in major Chinese cities, 1986-2011
  42. 42. China: reassessing priorities on streets? Guangzhou
  43. 43. China: preserving the urban fabric/mix? Guangzhou
  44. 44. China: also out of centre & in new developments? ?
  45. 45. “Not for Chinese cities” • “Trips too long” – Many trips are within bike range (3-6 km at leisurely pace) – And: more trips can be brought within bike range (by mixing functions) – Innovations and combinations can expand the spatial reach of the bike
  46. 46. Innovation-1: the e-bike
  47. 47. Innovation-1: the e-bike • In The Netherlands, by now around half of the bike-km of those aged 65 or more are by e-bike
  48. 48. Innovation-2: bike highways potential existing potential under development potentialpotentialpotentialpotential
  49. 49. Combination: bike-train 47%
  50. 50. Combination: bike-train 12%
  51. 51. • Why so successful? • Train fast, bike flexible – Faster than walk-train – More flexible than bus/tram-train • Competitive with car – Not bike alone, too slow – Not train alone, too rigid Combination: bike-train
  52. 52. • “Not enough space” – Bike 7 x more space efficient than car (10 x when parked) – Bike 1,5 more space efficient than bus
  53. 53. • “Air too polluted” – Not cycling, but pollution is the problem – Pollution problem for everybody, not only cyclists – Cycling can be a part of the solution
  54. 54. • “Too unsafe” – It is not, when infrastructure, laws, attitudes and numbers are there
  55. 55. Risk of death from traffic accidents in The Netherlands 2010-2012 Deaths per Bike Car billion trips 32,6 37,4 billion mins 1,9 1,2 (Institute for Road Safety Research, Statistics Netherlands)
  56. 56. Thanks, let’s discuss!

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