Early warning early action for dar 25032015 short
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Early warning early action for Dar es Salaam
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Early warning early action for dar 25032015 short
- 1. Early Warning Early Action Julie Arrighi Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 26th March 2015
- 2. Routinely taking humanitarian action before a disaster or health emergency happens, making full use of scientific information on all timescales Early Warning, Early Action
- 3. Why Early Warning Early Action? Extreme events have implications on health, livelihoods, water, food security, and more Climate and weather information can help anticipate and prepare for extreme events and changing risks.
- 4. Discussion Which actions could be taken in Dar es Salaam if there was a very high chance of flooding within 3 days?
- 5. Low-Cost / No-Regrets / Co-Benefits Actions These guidelines help to minimize risks and maximize benefits, especially if a disaster does not occur. UjalaQadir,2009
- 6. When should I act? Early Warning Early Action hurdles…
- 7. Humanitarian Action Scenarios Yes disaster No disaster Yes forecast-based action; Worthy action Act in vain No forecast-based action; Fail to act Worthy inaction
- 8. How do you decide? Early Warning Early Action is a function of… Possible actions Number of thresholds selected Cost of action and acting in vain Losses averted due to action Lead time of forecast Funding available How often you act in vain How often you take worthy action
- 9. The Vision Forecast-Based Financing 9
- 10. Establishing Forecast Based Financing System: What is needed? Historical record of disasters Historical forecasts/flood models Potential early actions with cost Facilitated discussion on “acting in vain” Enabling environment 10
- 11. When should I act? Thank you. Questions/Comments?
Editor's Notes
- To the left on the slide you’ll find the formal definition, but to put it simple: making use of climate and weather information before a disaster strikes and act sooner than you would do without this information. This concept will explain itself better in the coming slides.
- We will dive deeper into early warnings and early actions in the next slides, but in brief: * Using relevant warning information at all timescales comes down to establishing good working relationships with partners and stakeholders in your country the RC national society to get a systematic and comprehensable flow of relevant information on upcoming extreme weather events. * Then it comes down to making the right decisions after a warning is issued, improving response time and quality by acting in advance. If an alert has been given, different actions can lead to an early action
- Have teams brainstorm ideas on post-it notes. Which would be removed if the chance were not very high? Emphasize difference between chance and guaranteed. Other ideas, coordination meeting, contingency plans, alerting the media
- Low cost No Regrets – actions should not be so extreme that if the disaster never occurs the decision will be regretted. For example de-stocking a pastoralist area when a drought is predicted could be a high regret action. Co-benegits – actions should have positivie consequences.
- The basic premise, of taking early action after an early warning is easy. The challenge is defining when to act. A forecast is never gaurantted – this is inherent to the way forecasting works. If action taken, resources are re-allocated This can be done through Standard Operating Procedures and needs to be done in a robust enough way to justify allocating financing
- The answer, therefore, is to bring together all of the previous matrices and act when a specific forecasts reaches a specific threshold. The forecast-based action is triggered when forecast >= a selected threshold. This is our guiding framework and it internalizes the cost of acting (or not) as well as the inherent uncertainties associated with forecast information. Allowing us to move beyond these limitations. So which kinds of actions am I referring to? [Next Slide]
- So how do we chose these thresholds, it’s a matter of balancing a number of considerations. I won’t go through all of them but you can see them here. Considerations such as balancing the lead time of the forecast, and the inherent uncertainty in that forecast, with the possible actions that can be taken. Or the consideration to balance the number of times you are willing to act in vain vs, the cost of acting and the losses that can be averted when action is taken.
- Platforms at the national and local level Legal mandate Transparency and trust Capacity analysis Evidence base over opinion Affected communities at the heart of decision making; Dialogue between actors with different perspectives and priorities;
- Platforms at the national and local level Legal mandate Transparency and trust Capacity analysis Evidence base over opinion Affected communities at the heart of decision making; Dialogue between actors with different perspectives and priorities;
- In conclusion, the approach proposed here helps to shift our initial question of When should I act? To a new question of Has our action been triggered? Thank Deus and UG met for support.