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BPMNext 2013 Swenson
 

BPMNext 2013 Swenson

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Presentation from BPMNext on Antifragility and how that relates

Presentation from BPMNext on Antifragility and how that relates

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    BPMNext 2013 Swenson BPMNext 2013 Swenson Presentation Transcript

    • © Copyright 2013 Keith D SwensonKeith D SwensonMarch 2013Antifragile Systems forInnovation and LearningOrganizations
    • We know whatfragility is.But what isthe opposite?Fragile
    • ?Fragile Robust
    • Fragile Robust Antifragile
    • MusclesareAdaptiveThe Body isAntifragile
    • Learning is Adaptive
    • “The only sustainable competitiveadvantage is an organizationsability to learn faster than thecompetition.”- Peter M. Senge,The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization
    • IT System Perfection
    • Enlightenment Bias:- Sub-parts of a complex systemare simpler- A stable system is made fromvery hard & durable sub-parts.
    • “Stability is a Time Bomb”- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
    • Adaptive Systems crave ExerciseProtected Exposed
    • Adaptive Systems NEED ExerciseProtected Exposed
    • Adaptive Systems NEED ExerciseProtected Exposed
    • Forests are Adaptive
    • Monocultures are Fragile
    • “Nature loves small error, humansdon’t — hence when you rely onhuman judgment you are at themercy of a mental bias thatdisfavors antifragility.”- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
    • Enforcing a single bestpractice on the organization,can make it … fragile
    • “No plan survives contact withthe enemy.”- Helmuth von Moltke the Elder“Planning is essential, plans areworthless.”- Dwight D. Eisenhower.
    • The Planning Fallacy“The future is uncertain –but this uncertainty is atthe very heart of humancreativity”- Ilya Prigogine
    • The Planning Fallacy“In an unpredictable world,sometimes the bestinvestments are those thatminimize the importance ofpredictions.”- - Gökçe Sargut and Rita Gunther McGrath
    • Seven Domains of PredictabilityApplicationDevPDSIntegrationHumanPMPCMACMSBSEmail,Texting,Twitter,TelephoneVariable, UniquePredictable, RepeatableNotesDocuments& UnstructuredDataDatabases &StructuredData
    • Adaptive Case ManagementApplicationDevPDSIntegrationHumanPMPCMACMSBSEmail,Texting,Twitter,TelephoneVariable, UniquePredictable, RepeatableNotesDocuments& UnstructuredDataDatabases &StructuredData
    • SummaryOrganizations are antifragileThey improve when stressed.They crave stress (exercise).Planning is a part of workingNot something to be eliminatedI.T. systems should promote variationDemo:Enforcing a single best practicecan make organization fragile.http://www.bpmnext.com/bpmnext-2013-presentations/antifragile-systems-for-innovation-and-learning-organizations/
    • Keith D SwensonAdaptive Case Managementhttp://social-biz.org/