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BPMNext 2013 Swenson

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Presentation from BPMNext on Antifragility and how that relates

Presentation from BPMNext on Antifragility and how that relates

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  • 1. © Copyright 2013 Keith D SwensonKeith D SwensonMarch 2013Antifragile Systems forInnovation and LearningOrganizations
  • 2. We know whatfragility is.But what isthe opposite?Fragile
  • 3. ?Fragile Robust
  • 4. Fragile Robust Antifragile
  • 5. MusclesareAdaptiveThe Body isAntifragile
  • 6. Learning is Adaptive
  • 7. “The only sustainable competitiveadvantage is an organizationsability to learn faster than thecompetition.”- Peter M. Senge,The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization
  • 8. IT System Perfection
  • 9. Enlightenment Bias:- Sub-parts of a complex systemare simpler- A stable system is made fromvery hard & durable sub-parts.
  • 10. “Stability is a Time Bomb”- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
  • 11. Adaptive Systems crave ExerciseProtected Exposed
  • 12. Adaptive Systems NEED ExerciseProtected Exposed
  • 13. Adaptive Systems NEED ExerciseProtected Exposed
  • 14. Forests are Adaptive
  • 15. Monocultures are Fragile
  • 16. “Nature loves small error, humansdon’t — hence when you rely onhuman judgment you are at themercy of a mental bias thatdisfavors antifragility.”- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
  • 17. Enforcing a single bestpractice on the organization,can make it … fragile
  • 18. “No plan survives contact withthe enemy.”- Helmuth von Moltke the Elder“Planning is essential, plans areworthless.”- Dwight D. Eisenhower.
  • 19. The Planning Fallacy“The future is uncertain –but this uncertainty is atthe very heart of humancreativity”- Ilya Prigogine
  • 20. The Planning Fallacy“In an unpredictable world,sometimes the bestinvestments are those thatminimize the importance ofpredictions.”- - Gökçe Sargut and Rita Gunther McGrath
  • 21. Seven Domains of PredictabilityApplicationDevPDSIntegrationHumanPMPCMACMSBSEmail,Texting,Twitter,TelephoneVariable, UniquePredictable, RepeatableNotesDocuments& UnstructuredDataDatabases &StructuredData
  • 22. Adaptive Case ManagementApplicationDevPDSIntegrationHumanPMPCMACMSBSEmail,Texting,Twitter,TelephoneVariable, UniquePredictable, RepeatableNotesDocuments& UnstructuredDataDatabases &StructuredData
  • 23. SummaryOrganizations are antifragileThey improve when stressed.They crave stress (exercise).Planning is a part of workingNot something to be eliminatedI.T. systems should promote variationDemo:Enforcing a single best practicecan make organization fragile.http://www.bpmnext.com/bpmnext-2013-presentations/antifragile-systems-for-innovation-and-learning-organizations/
  • 24. Keith D SwensonAdaptive Case Managementhttp://social-biz.org/