BPMNext 2013 Swenson


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Presentation from BPMNext on Antifragility and how that relates

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BPMNext 2013 Swenson

  1. 1. © Copyright 2013 Keith D SwensonKeith D SwensonMarch 2013Antifragile Systems forInnovation and LearningOrganizations
  2. 2. We know whatfragility is.But what isthe opposite?Fragile
  3. 3. ?Fragile Robust
  4. 4. Fragile Robust Antifragile
  5. 5. MusclesareAdaptiveThe Body isAntifragile
  6. 6. Learning is Adaptive
  7. 7. “The only sustainable competitiveadvantage is an organizationsability to learn faster than thecompetition.”- Peter M. Senge,The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization
  8. 8. IT System Perfection
  9. 9. Enlightenment Bias:- Sub-parts of a complex systemare simpler- A stable system is made fromvery hard & durable sub-parts.
  10. 10. “Stability is a Time Bomb”- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
  11. 11. Adaptive Systems crave ExerciseProtected Exposed
  12. 12. Adaptive Systems NEED ExerciseProtected Exposed
  13. 13. Adaptive Systems NEED ExerciseProtected Exposed
  14. 14. Forests are Adaptive
  15. 15. Monocultures are Fragile
  16. 16. “Nature loves small error, humansdon’t — hence when you rely onhuman judgment you are at themercy of a mental bias thatdisfavors antifragility.”- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile
  17. 17. Enforcing a single bestpractice on the organization,can make it … fragile
  18. 18. “No plan survives contact withthe enemy.”- Helmuth von Moltke the Elder“Planning is essential, plans areworthless.”- Dwight D. Eisenhower.
  19. 19. The Planning Fallacy“The future is uncertain –but this uncertainty is atthe very heart of humancreativity”- Ilya Prigogine
  20. 20. The Planning Fallacy“In an unpredictable world,sometimes the bestinvestments are those thatminimize the importance ofpredictions.”- - Gökçe Sargut and Rita Gunther McGrath
  21. 21. Seven Domains of PredictabilityApplicationDevPDSIntegrationHumanPMPCMACMSBSEmail,Texting,Twitter,TelephoneVariable, UniquePredictable, RepeatableNotesDocuments& UnstructuredDataDatabases &StructuredData
  22. 22. Adaptive Case ManagementApplicationDevPDSIntegrationHumanPMPCMACMSBSEmail,Texting,Twitter,TelephoneVariable, UniquePredictable, RepeatableNotesDocuments& UnstructuredDataDatabases &StructuredData
  23. 23. SummaryOrganizations are antifragileThey improve when stressed.They crave stress (exercise).Planning is a part of workingNot something to be eliminatedI.T. systems should promote variationDemo:Enforcing a single best practicecan make organization fragile.http://www.bpmnext.com/bpmnext-2013-presentations/antifragile-systems-for-innovation-and-learning-organizations/
  24. 24. Keith D SwensonAdaptive Case Managementhttp://social-biz.org/