This document discusses whether Europe needs a food policy. It outlines four key societal challenges: healthy diets, food/nutrition security, climate change, and sustainability/resilience. Trends in the food system include the growing role of ICT and concentration in the food chain. The author argues that a food policy is needed to address these challenges, and that it should start by getting prices right and increasing R&D investment. Agricultural policy could support food policy goals but not replace the need for a dedicated food policy framework.

1. Does Europe need a Food Policy – Yes or No ?
The Hague, December 1 2015
148th EAAE Seminar
Krijn J. Poppe

2. Content
 Four societal challenges
● Healthy diet for a healthy life
● Food and nutrition security
● Climate change
● Sustainability and resilience
 Trends in the food system
● The role of ICT
● The dominance of the food chain
 Do we need a food policy? - yes I think we do
● Where to start – Getting prices right and in R&D?
● What does it mean for agricultural policy?

3. Trends in food: interest in healthy diet?
 Health
● Awareness of healthy diets and lifestyles
● Struggle against obesitas
 Sustainable food production
● Growing demand for sustainable, seasonal products
from the region
● Reduction in consumption, food waste as an issue
 New cultures in food
● Relax and slow, contra-trend of technology
 Quality time: products should ripen, slow food
● Experience – food as a part of story telling
● More fresh, less meat

4. Consumer behaviour and –attitudes on sustainability
 Consumers choose
altruistic values like
equality, peace and fair
above nature values
(pollution, in balance
with nature) and egoistic
values (power, richness,
authority)
 15% of the persons have
public values as animal
welfare, environment and
justice as a first choice.
 Health, price and
taste are most
important aspects of
food
Bron: Backus et al. (2011). Voedselbalans 2011. LEI-WUR.

5. Food consumption compared to official
advise, NL 2007 – 2010 (source: PBL)
5

6. Food and nutrition security
 Current challenge - 50% has a food related problem:
● Undernourished: 0.8 billion
● Malnutrition: 1.0 billion
● Obese and overweight 1.6 billion
 2050 from 7 to 9 billion: 2.0 billion extra
 ‘double burden’: co-existence of undernourishment and
overweight
 Stable access to food more an issue than production
 Changing diets in relation to urbanisation and higher
incomes
 UN: Sustainable development goals. Reducing poverty !

7. Climate change
 UNFCCC, the United
Nations Framework
Conference on Climate
Change: COP21
 Towards hard goals on
CO2 emissions and CO2
trading?
 Future energy prices in
the bio-economy and their
influence on food
production ?
 Role of agriculture in
adaptation and mitigation?

8. Sustainability and resilience
 Agriculture reduced pollution, per ha and even more per
kg of product >> when incentivized by policy or retail
 But still a long list of issues, among others:
● Pesticides
● Manure, fertilizer and water quality
● Greenhouse gasses
● Antibiotics
● Local issues like odour and light nuisance
● Animal welfare and resistance to industrialisation
 The role of animals in climate change and food nutrition
 Geo-politics and resilience of our food system

9. Sustainability – how it became an issue

10. Trends in the food system - concentration
 Bigger food processors
● Nearly 50 farmer cooperatives have members in
more than 1 EU member state
 Concentrated retail

11. Chain organisation changes (©Gereffi et al., 2005)
inputsEndproduct
PRICE
Shops Complete
IntegrationLead
company
Lead
company
Turnkey
supplier
Relational
supplier
Market Modular Relational Captive Hierarchy
Low Degree of explicit coordination and power asymmetry High
Lead
company
Farmers

12. Concentration in farming Source: FADN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
percentagestandardoutput
percentage farms
France
Germany
UK
Spain
Italy
Poland
Sweden
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 5 10 15 20 25
percentagestandardoutput
percentage farms
France
Poland
Romania

13. tijd
Mate van verspreiding
van technologische revolutie
Installatie periode
Volgende
golf
Uitrol periode
Draai-
punt
INDRINGER
EXTASE
SYNERGIE
RIJPHEID
Door-
braak
Werkeloosheid
Stilstand oude bedrijfstakken
Kapitaal zoekt nieuwe techniek
Financiele bubble
Onevenwichtigheden
Polarisatie arm en rijk
Gouden eeuw
Coherente groei
Toenemende externalities
Techniek bereikt grenzen
Marktverzadiging
Teleurstelling en gemakzucht
Institutionele
innovatie
Naar Perez, 2002
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
time
Degree of diffusion of the
technological revoluton
Installation period
Next
wave
Deployment
period
Turning
point
IRRUPTION
FRENZY
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Big Bang
Unemployment
Decline of old industries
Capital searches new techniques
Financial bubble
Decoupling in the system
Polarisation poor and rich
Golden age
Coherent growth
Increasing externalities
Last products & industries
Market saturation
Disappointment vs
complacency
Crash
2008
1929
1893
1847
1797
Institutional
innovation
Based on Perez, 2002
The opportunity for green growth
1971 chip ICT
1908 car, oil, mass production
1875 steel
1829 steam, railways
1771 water, textiles

14. ICT brings info for farmer and consumer
Royal Gala apple
Origin: Girona
Pesticides: No
Organic farming: Yes
Carbon footprint:1,2 kg CO2e

15. Which innovations and new business models are possible ?
Precision Farming/Advice Segment Online + infoService ++
• Prescriptive farming
• Predictive maintenance
• Eco-systems of apps
• Regionally pooled big data
analysis for science and
advise (and risk mgt.)
• Personalized
advise by apps
• Online shops
• Integrated supply chains
• Feedback consumer-producer
• Measure, pay
sustainability
• Better T&T
• Paperless chain
• Store
replenishment
• Category
management
Sustainability HealthFood SafetyFood Security
LoyaltySMEs Cost priceGRIN Cope with retail
Transport
Input industries
Farmer Food processor Retail / consumerSoftware
Provider
Logistic
solution
providers
Transport+
Collaboration and Data Exchange is needed!

16. Big Data for Smart Food and Health Services
Life
style
Health
Food
16

17. Reducing health costs with big data

18. Productivity:
 Science has the potential to develop technologies that can boost
productivity whilst addressing resource scarcities and environmental
problems
 Massive investments needed in R&D, technology adoption, rural
infrastructure, access to markets
 GRIN technologies (Genetics, Robotics, Informatics, Nano)
Sufficiency:
 Science has the potential to develop technological solutions that are
productive, reduce resource use, preserve biodiversity
 However, demand increases need to be mitigated, through behavorial
change, structural changes food systems
 Appropriate governance structures to internalise externalities
● E.g.: less meat, urban farming etc.
SCAR 3rd Foresight: 2 narratives for future

19.  HighTech: strong influence new technology owned by
multinationals. Driverless tractors, contract farming and a
rural exodus. US of Europe. Rich society with inequality.
Sustainability issues solved. Bio-boom scenario.
 Self-organisation: Europe of regions where new ICT
technologies with disruptive business models lead to self-
organisation, bottom-up democracy, short-supply chains,
multi-functional agriculture. European institutions are weak,
regions and cities rule. Inequalities between regions,
depending on endowments.
 Collapse: Big climate change effects, mass-migration and
political turbulence leads to a collapse of institutions and
European integration. Regional and local communities look
for self-sufficiency. Bio-scarcity and labour intensive
agriculture. Technology development becomes dependent on
science in China, India, Brazil.
SCAR AKIS Foresight: 3 narratives

20. Scenarios: from agricultural to food policy
Strong government
Room for markets and networks
Con-
serve Develop
(c) Poppe et al, 2009

21. Towards a food policy
– where to start?

22. Towards a food policy
– where to start?
• Getting Prices Right
• Nudging and advise to consumers?
• Partner with commercial sector in product
development? >> “choice editing”
• Regulation – which ones?

23. Towards a food policy
– in research:
• Multi- and transdisciplinary
• Create a Research Infrastructure

24. Towards a food policy
– what does it mean for CAP post-2020?
• Food policy influences farming, not vice versa?
• Attention for health aspects of farm
management: antibiotics, zoonoses
• Better policies for sustainability – incentivize
sustainability programs of food industry for
larger farms?
• Do not frame a trade off between productivity
and sustainability
• Research moves the frontier
• Adopt the sufficiency scenario: in co-
creation consumer demand is not given

25. Conclusions
 Four societal challenges
● Healthy diet for a healthy life
● Food and nutrition security
● Climate change
● Sustainability and resilience
 Trends in the food system
● The role of ICT
● The dominance of the food chain
 Yes, we need a food policy
● Start with getting prices right and in R&D
● Agricultural policy can support, not replace food
policy

26. Thanks for your
attention
krijn.poppe@wur.nl
www.lei.wur.nl