Blue Ridge Association of Realtors  The U.S. and Washington AreaEconomic Performance and Outlook      John McClain, Senior...
GDP Percent Change, 1930-2010 %                                         (Real Dollars)20.015.010.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0 ...
Annual Change in Jobs – US                        1940 - 2010        THOUSANDS500030001000-1000-3000-5000-7000
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP                               Past Five Recessions                    16               ...
U.S. Gross Domestic Product      Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 %                           Forecast > > > > > > 6 4 2 0 -2...
ISM Manufacturing and     Non-Manufacturing Indices6560555045                               Mfg40                         ...
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS3000                                     Sep =                                ...
US Job Change              Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted  000s600400200                                             ...
Annual Change in Employed - U.S.THOUSANDS4000                                       Sep =2000                             ...
Initial Claims for Unemployment                             4-Week Moving Average700650600550500450400                    ...
U.S. Unemployment Rate     %1110                                              Sep 9                                       ...
U.S. Housing Trends(000s)   New & Existing Home Sales                   (000s)7500                                        ...
116.0         96.0                                                  121.0                101.0                          10...
2011                             Jul                             Apr                             Jan                     2...
Jul                        2011                                                           Apr                             ...
Consumer Prices                                   2001 - 2015 %                                                           ...
Interest Rates     2001 - 2015               Forecast > > > > > >87654                                      Fed3          ...
Oil Prices$/barrel                 $ per barrel140                                        Forecast > > > > > > > >120100 8...
Consumer Confidence160140120100                                                                         100               ...
Growth in Total      %                   Consumption Outlays     6     5 4.7                                              ...
U.S. Job Change by Sector                        Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 Ranked by Size in 2010                             ...
U.S. Job Change by Sector                        Aug 2011 – Sept 2011 Ranked by Size in 2010                              ...
The Washington Economy
Washington MSA Leading Economic Index    Month-Over-Year Percent Change6.0%4.0%2.0%                                       ...
Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index    Month-Over-Year Percent Change10.0% 5.0%                                      ...
Annual Job Change – MOTYC                       Washington MSA   000s150100  50    0 -50-100                              ...
Annual Job Change                                         Washington MSA 000s Annual Data                                 ...
15 Largest Job Markets              Job Change Sep 2010 – Sep 2011   (000s)   100    80    60                 Washington +...
Job Change by Sector                           Sept 2010 – Sept 2011                             Washington MSA           ...
Annual Job Change                                         Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data                              ...
Job Change by Sector                           Sept 2010 – Sept 2011                             Northern Virginia        ...
Unemployment Rate1412                                            11.0 – DC10                                            9....
15 Largest Job Markets           Ranked by Unemployment Rate   %             September 2011  14  12  10                   ...
Unemployment Rate – August Each Year%          BRAR Counties12108                                          Clarke         ...
Housing Market Trends
Existing Home Sales                              Washington MSA                          Through September 2011  14000  12...
Median House Sales Price                        Washington MSA 500 450                                                    ...
Percent Change in                     Inventories of Existing Homes                             Month-Over-the-Year-Change...
Total Active Listings Per Sale                   September Each Year  25.0  20.0  15.0                                    ...
Total Active Listings Per Sale         September Each Year – Metro Area    16.0    14.0    12.0    10.0     8.0     6.0   ...
Average Sales Price Percent Change                      Washington MSA                                                    ...
Average Sales Price Percent Change                      Northern Virginia                                                 ...
Washington MSA                        Building Permits                 2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg  4500  4000  3500  300...
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region  $ Median Sales Price – Sept Each Year300,000250,000200,000150,000100,000 50,000...
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region          Sales – Sept Each Year400350300250200150100 50  0      2004    2005    ...
Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region          Listings – Sept Each Year3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000  500    0      ...
Employment Change by                             Sub-state Region (000s)                     2008 2009                  20...
OUTLOOK - Factors• Debt Ceiling Resolution & Federal Budget• Housing Market   – Foreclosures   – Fannie and Freddie   – Ho...
U.S. Gross Domestic Product         Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 %                              Forecast > > > > > > 6 4 ...
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BRAR-The Economy and Housing Market - Nov 3

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BRAR-The Economy and Housing Market - Nov 3

  1. 1. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors The U.S. and Washington AreaEconomic Performance and Outlook John McClain, Senior Fellow Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University November 3, 2011
  2. 2. GDP Percent Change, 1930-2010 % (Real Dollars)20.015.010.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  3. 3. Annual Change in Jobs – US 1940 - 2010 THOUSANDS500030001000-1000-3000-5000-7000
  4. 4. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions 16 14% Change in GDP 12 10 1975-Q1 1982-Q3 8 1991-Q1 6 2001-Q4 4 2009-Q2 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
  5. 5. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 % Forecast > > > > > > 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 3 2011-1 2 3 4 2 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2007-1 2008-1 2009-1 2010-1 2012-1 2013-1 2014-1
  6. 6. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices6560555045 Mfg40 N-Mfg3530
  7. 7. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS3000 Sep = + 1.46 M1000-1000-3000-5000-7000 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
  8. 8. US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 000s600400200 Sep 0 = 103-200-400-600-800 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: BLS
  9. 9. Annual Change in Employed - U.S.THOUSANDS4000 Sep =2000 787 0-2000-4000-6000-8000 Source: BLS Household Survey, NSA
  10. 10. Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average700650600550500450400 405350300250200 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  11. 11. U.S. Unemployment Rate %1110 Sep 9 = 9.1 8 GI FCST 7 11 – 9.1 12 – 9.2 6 13 – 8.9 5 14 – 8.1 15 – 7.3 4 16 – 6.8 Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
  12. 12. U.S. Housing Trends(000s) New & Existing Home Sales (000s)7500 8007000 7006500 Existing 6006000 (left scale)5500 5005000 4004500 New 3004000 (Right Scale)3500 200
  13. 13. 116.0 96.0 121.0 101.0 106.0 111.0Nov-06Feb-07May-07Aug-07Nov-07Feb-08May-08Aug-08Nov-08Feb-09 RECESSION >May-09Aug-09Nov-09 Nov 2006 – Sep 2011Feb-10May-10Aug-10 L.I.Nov-10 U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesFeb-11May-11 C.I.Aug-11
  14. 14. 2011 Jul Apr Jan 2010 Oct Jul Apr JanU.S. Leading Index 2009 Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct 2008 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2007 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2006 Jul Apr Jan -6 -2 -4 14 12 10 0 8 6 4 2
  15. 15. Jul 2011 Apr Jan Oct 2010 Jul AprU.S. Coincident Index Jan Oct 2009 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2008 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2007 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2006 Jul Apr Jan -6 -8 -2 -4 4 2 0
  16. 16. Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015 % Forecast > > > > > >543210-1 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: BLS, Global Insight
  17. 17. Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >87654 Fed3 30-Yr210
  18. 18. Oil Prices$/barrel $ per barrel140 Forecast > > > > > > > >120100 80 60 40 20 0Source: Global Insight
  19. 19. Consumer Confidence160140120100 100 Expectations 80 60 40 Present Situation 20 Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  20. 20. Growth in Total % Consumption Outlays 6 5 4.7 Forecast > > > > > 4 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.9 3 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.0 2 1 0 -1 -0.6 -2 -1.9 -3Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  21. 21. U.S. Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 1,490 State & Local Govt -259Educ & Health Svcs 450 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 561 Retail Trade 162 Leisure & Hosp. 120 Manufacturing 196 Financial -13 Construction 37 Wlse Trade 84 Other Services 64 Transp. & Util. 79 Federal Govt. -30 Information -41 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  22. 22. U.S. Job Change by Sector Aug 2011 – Sept 2011 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 103 State & Local Govt -33Educ & Health Svcs 45 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 48 Retail Trade 14 Leisure & Hosp. -4 Manufacturing -13 Financial -8 Construction 26 Wlse Trade -6 Other Services -3 Transp. & Util. -1 Federal Govt. -1 Information 34 -100 -50 0 50 100Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  23. 23. The Washington Economy
  24. 24. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change6.0%4.0%2.0% Aug0.0%-2.0% 12-Month Moving Average-4.0%-6.0%
  25. 25. Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change10.0% 5.0% Aug 0.0% -5.0% 12-Month-10.0% Moving Average-15.0%
  26. 26. Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA 000s150100 50 0 -50-100 2011 1999 2003 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  27. 27. Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 80 2009 2010 2011 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Jun Jun Jun Feb Dec Feb Dec Feb Aug Aug Aug 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  28. 28. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Sep 2010 – Sep 2011 (000s) 100 80 60 Washington +8,500 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  29. 29. Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 8,500 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 12 Federal Govt. 0Educ & Health Svcs 3 State & Local Govt 2 Retail Trade -3 Leisure & Hosp. 1 Construction -5 Other Services -4 Financial 5 Information -2 Manufacturing -4 Wlse Trade 0 Transp. & Util. 1 -20 -10 0 10 20 30Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  30. 30. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 60 50 2009 2010 2011 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Jun Jun Jun Feb Dec Feb Dec Feb Aug Aug Aug 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  31. 31. Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 Northern Virginia (000s) Total + 600 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 5 Federal Govt. -3Educ & Health Svcs 0 State & Local Govt 2 Retail Trade 1 Leisure & Hosp. 0 Construction 1 Other Services -3 Financial 1 Information -2 Manufacturing 0 Wlse Trade 0 Transp. & Util. -1 -20 -10 0 10 20 30Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  32. 32. Unemployment Rate1412 11.0 – DC10 9.1 – U.S. 8 6.3 – SMD 6 6.1 – MSA 4.9 - NVA 4 2 0Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
  33. 33. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate % September 2011 14 12 10 US 8 9.1 6.1 6 4 2 0Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
  34. 34. Unemployment Rate – August Each Year% BRAR Counties12108 Clarke Frederick6 Warren Shenandoah4 VA US20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  35. 35. Housing Market Trends
  36. 36. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September 2011 14000 12000 10000 12-Month Moving Average 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  37. 37. Median House Sales Price Washington MSA 500 450 $315,200 400 Sept 2011 350 300 250 200 150 100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  38. 38. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change % 2000 – 2011, MSA140 Jan-May, 2006 >100 %120100 80 60 40 20 0-20-40 Sep = - 29% 2000 2005 2010 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  39. 39. Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year 25.0 20.0 15.0 PW 10.0 FFX LDN 5.0 ARL 0.0Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  40. 40. Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year – Metro Area 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  41. 41. Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 30 22 20 20 2009 2010 2011 1414 11 10 9 8 9 6 6 6 6 7 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 3 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 -7 -10 -10 -9 -14 -16 -20 -18 -20 -24 -26 -30Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  42. 42. Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 30 2223 20 2009 19 2010 2011 15 161716 1414 12 11 10 9 11 9 9 1010 10 5 5 6 6 6 7 4 4 4 1 2 3 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -10 -8 -12 -20 -19 -22 -25 -30 -28 -28 -40Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  43. 43. Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis
  44. 44. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region $ Median Sales Price – Sept Each Year300,000250,000200,000150,000100,000 50,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  45. 45. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region Sales – Sept Each Year400350300250200150100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  46. 46. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region Listings – Sept Each Year3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  47. 47. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015D.C. 10.1 -2.2 9.5 3.3 5.7 8.6 9.3 9.8Sub. MD -3.3 -25.1 -5.9 4.6 7.5 11.3 14.1 16.2No. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1REGION 12.9 -50.3 11.3 23.6 30.3 39.5 44.9 48.1 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11
  48. 48. OUTLOOK - Factors• Debt Ceiling Resolution & Federal Budget• Housing Market – Foreclosures – Fannie and Freddie – Home Ownership• Corporate Earnings• Jobs
  49. 49. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 % Forecast > > > > > > 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 3 2011-1 2 3 4 2 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2007-1 2008-1 2009-1 2010-1 2012-1 2013-1 2014-1Source: IHS Global Insight
  50. 50. CRA.GMU.EDU
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