BRAR-The Economy and Housing Market - Nov 3
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BRAR-The Economy and Housing Market - Nov 3 BRAR-The Economy and Housing Market - Nov 3 Presentation Transcript

  • Blue Ridge Association of Realtors The U.S. and Washington AreaEconomic Performance and Outlook John McClain, Senior Fellow Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University November 3, 2011
  • GDP Percent Change, 1930-2010 % (Real Dollars)20.015.010.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • Annual Change in Jobs – US 1940 - 2010 THOUSANDS500030001000-1000-3000-5000-7000
  • Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions 16 14% Change in GDP 12 10 1975-Q1 1982-Q3 8 1991-Q1 6 2001-Q4 4 2009-Q2 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
  • U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 % Forecast > > > > > > 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 3 2011-1 2 3 4 2 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2007-1 2008-1 2009-1 2010-1 2012-1 2013-1 2014-1
  • ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices6560555045 Mfg40 N-Mfg3530
  • Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS3000 Sep = + 1.46 M1000-1000-3000-5000-7000 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
  • US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 000s600400200 Sep 0 = 103-200-400-600-800 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: BLS
  • Annual Change in Employed - U.S.THOUSANDS4000 Sep =2000 787 0-2000-4000-6000-8000 Source: BLS Household Survey, NSA
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average700650600550500450400 405350300250200 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • U.S. Unemployment Rate %1110 Sep 9 = 9.1 8 GI FCST 7 11 – 9.1 12 – 9.2 6 13 – 8.9 5 14 – 8.1 15 – 7.3 4 16 – 6.8 Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
  • U.S. Housing Trends(000s) New & Existing Home Sales (000s)7500 8007000 7006500 Existing 6006000 (left scale)5500 5005000 4004500 New 3004000 (Right Scale)3500 200
  • 116.0 96.0 121.0 101.0 106.0 111.0Nov-06Feb-07May-07Aug-07Nov-07Feb-08May-08Aug-08Nov-08Feb-09 RECESSION >May-09Aug-09Nov-09 Nov 2006 – Sep 2011Feb-10May-10Aug-10 L.I.Nov-10 U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesFeb-11May-11 C.I.Aug-11
  • 2011 Jul Apr Jan 2010 Oct Jul Apr JanU.S. Leading Index 2009 Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct 2008 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2007 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2006 Jul Apr Jan -6 -2 -4 14 12 10 0 8 6 4 2
  • Jul 2011 Apr Jan Oct 2010 Jul AprU.S. Coincident Index Jan Oct 2009 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2008 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2007 Jul Apr Jan Oct 2006 Jul Apr Jan -6 -8 -2 -4 4 2 0
  • Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015 % Forecast > > > > > >543210-1 2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: BLS, Global Insight
  • Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >87654 Fed3 30-Yr210
  • Oil Prices$/barrel $ per barrel140 Forecast > > > > > > > >120100 80 60 40 20 0Source: Global Insight
  • Consumer Confidence160140120100 100 Expectations 80 60 40 Present Situation 20 Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Growth in Total % Consumption Outlays 6 5 4.7 Forecast > > > > > 4 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.9 3 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.0 2 1 0 -1 -0.6 -2 -1.9 -3Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • U.S. Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 1,490 State & Local Govt -259Educ & Health Svcs 450 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 561 Retail Trade 162 Leisure & Hosp. 120 Manufacturing 196 Financial -13 Construction 37 Wlse Trade 84 Other Services 64 Transp. & Util. 79 Federal Govt. -30 Information -41 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • U.S. Job Change by Sector Aug 2011 – Sept 2011 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 103 State & Local Govt -33Educ & Health Svcs 45 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 48 Retail Trade 14 Leisure & Hosp. -4 Manufacturing -13 Financial -8 Construction 26 Wlse Trade -6 Other Services -3 Transp. & Util. -1 Federal Govt. -1 Information 34 -100 -50 0 50 100Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • The Washington Economy
  • Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change6.0%4.0%2.0% Aug0.0%-2.0% 12-Month Moving Average-4.0%-6.0%
  • Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change10.0% 5.0% Aug 0.0% -5.0% 12-Month-10.0% Moving Average-15.0%
  • Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA 000s150100 50 0 -50-100 2011 1999 2003 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 80 2009 2010 2011 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Jun Jun Jun Feb Dec Feb Dec Feb Aug Aug Aug 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Sep 2010 – Sep 2011 (000s) 100 80 60 Washington +8,500 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 8,500 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 12 Federal Govt. 0Educ & Health Svcs 3 State & Local Govt 2 Retail Trade -3 Leisure & Hosp. 1 Construction -5 Other Services -4 Financial 5 Information -2 Manufacturing -4 Wlse Trade 0 Transp. & Util. 1 -20 -10 0 10 20 30Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 60 50 2009 2010 2011 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Jun Jun Jun Feb Dec Feb Dec Feb Aug Aug Aug 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 – Sept 2011 Northern Virginia (000s) Total + 600 Prof. & Bus. Svcs 5 Federal Govt. -3Educ & Health Svcs 0 State & Local Govt 2 Retail Trade 1 Leisure & Hosp. 0 Construction 1 Other Services -3 Financial 1 Information -2 Manufacturing 0 Wlse Trade 0 Transp. & Util. -1 -20 -10 0 10 20 30Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Unemployment Rate1412 11.0 – DC10 9.1 – U.S. 8 6.3 – SMD 6 6.1 – MSA 4.9 - NVA 4 2 0Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate % September 2011 14 12 10 US 8 9.1 6.1 6 4 2 0Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
  • Unemployment Rate – August Each Year% BRAR Counties12108 Clarke Frederick6 Warren Shenandoah4 VA US20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • Housing Market Trends
  • Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September 2011 14000 12000 10000 12-Month Moving Average 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Median House Sales Price Washington MSA 500 450 $315,200 400 Sept 2011 350 300 250 200 150 100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change % 2000 – 2011, MSA140 Jan-May, 2006 >100 %120100 80 60 40 20 0-20-40 Sep = - 29% 2000 2005 2010 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year 25.0 20.0 15.0 PW 10.0 FFX LDN 5.0 ARL 0.0Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Total Active Listings Per Sale September Each Year – Metro Area 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 30 22 20 20 2009 2010 2011 1414 11 10 9 8 9 6 6 6 6 7 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 3 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 -7 -10 -10 -9 -14 -16 -20 -18 -20 -24 -26 -30Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 30 2223 20 2009 19 2010 2011 15 161716 1414 12 11 10 9 11 9 9 1010 10 5 5 6 6 6 7 4 4 4 1 2 3 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -10 -8 -12 -20 -19 -22 -25 -30 -28 -28 -40Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis
  • Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region $ Median Sales Price – Sept Each Year300,000250,000200,000150,000100,000 50,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region Sales – Sept Each Year400350300250200150100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region Listings – Sept Each Year3,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015D.C. 10.1 -2.2 9.5 3.3 5.7 8.6 9.3 9.8Sub. MD -3.3 -25.1 -5.9 4.6 7.5 11.3 14.1 16.2No. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1REGION 12.9 -50.3 11.3 23.6 30.3 39.5 44.9 48.1 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11
  • OUTLOOK - Factors• Debt Ceiling Resolution & Federal Budget• Housing Market – Foreclosures – Fannie and Freddie – Home Ownership• Corporate Earnings• Jobs
  • U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 % Forecast > > > > > > 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 3 2011-1 2 3 4 2 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 2007-1 2008-1 2009-1 2010-1 2012-1 2013-1 2014-1Source: IHS Global Insight
  • CRA.GMU.EDU