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STKI Summit 2012 Main Presentation

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The presentation talks about the megatrends and the game changers in the IT industry for 2012-14 …

The presentation talks about the megatrends and the game changers in the IT industry for 2012-14
1. Consumerization/mobile
2. Data
3. IT as a service
4. Risk Management

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  • 1. IT Israel: MegatrendsGame changers OVERVIEW STKI Summit 2012 Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf
  • 2. Did we see this coming ? What will happen next ? 2
  • 3. Example of what can happen…… if you behave like an ostrich….. 3
  • 4. Example of what can happen…… if you behave like an ostrich….. 4
  • 5. Re-invent ourselves or else … “BLUE OCEAN” 5
  • 6. Re-invent ourselves or else … “BLUE OCEAN” 6
  • 7. WICKED problems : DESIGN THINKING 7
  • 8. Design Thinking: to create experiences 8
  • 9. INNOVATE: the business of IT and the business of the businessENTREPRENEURSHIP is the alertness to forecastmarket conditionsALERTNESS is the ability to perceive new economicopportunities that no one has yet recognized 9
  • 10. -“Every man is guilty of all the good he didn’t do”- Voltaire 1770s 10
  • 11. -“Every man is guilty of all the good he didn’t do”- Voltaire 1770s 11
  • 12. Israeli Enterprise 2012 : shift from cost-cutting to innovation 12
  • 13. New & Different Business Demands for IT Services 13
  • 14. Two point roadmap: create value and optimize costs Business demand for IT services Innovate & more value Optimize & cut costs IT budget Time 14
  • 15. Two point roadmap: create value and optimize costs Business demand for IT services Innovate & more value Optimize & cut costs IT budget Time 15
  • 16. IT toolbox: GAME-CHANGING technologies 16
  • 17. IT toolbox: GAME-CHANGING technologies 17
  • 18. STKI: only 4 Megatrends for 2012-2017 18
  • 19. STKI: only 4 Megatrends for 2012-2017 19
  • 20. Mega-trend #1 of 21st century CONSUMERIZATION: empowerment of people collaborating via connected mobile devices 20
  • 21. 2012 game changers : • New Economic playbox • New Diffusion of technology model • New IT clients • New rules for the “web” 21
  • 22. New economic playbox : Service Goods-Based Economy Economy The Experience Economy Agrarian Economy 22
  • 23. Experience Economy > Age of the CustomerFrom 1900 to 1960, Age of Manufacturing , if you owned a factory,you owned the market.From 1960 to 2000, Age of Distribution, if you owned the distributionchannels, you owned the market.From 2000 to 2011, Age of Information, if you owned the information,you owned the market.From 2011, Age of the Customer, if you engage the customer, you ownthe market 23
  • 24. “the NEW experience economy” 24
  • 25. “the NEW experience economy” 25
  • 26. New IT client: Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) There are only 3 reasons why you choose to buy a product or a service : 1. Its the cheapest 2. Its unique 3. Youre sold on marketing!! 26
  • 27. Who is getting IT services? What do they want?1970-2010: 2010- :Logically structured thinking; Unstructured approach to tasksanalyzing and controlling (multitasking); emotionalprocesses. responses; social beingIT Clients: IT Clients:• Finance • Sales• Logistics • Marketing• HR • Consumer• Transactional core 27
  • 28. technology will shape who we are and our “new economy” a new economy that’s vast, automatic, and invisiblethereby bringing the biggest change since the Industrial Revolution 28
  • 29. Rules 1994: the web Rules 2012: the social webFrom “anonymity” to “real identities”From “wisdom of crowds” to “wisdom of friends”From “receivers” to “broadcasters” of information 29
  • 30. What is happening to the diffusion of IT technologies? 30
  • 31. 2012 game changers : • Consumerization of IT (CoIT) • Bring your own Device (BYOD) • Changing Client Architectures 31
  • 32. The Consumerization of IT:Real Companies and The Next Generation of Business 32
  • 33. The Consumerization of IT:Real Companies and The Next Generation of Business 33
  • 34. Things my grandson taught me:• Touch screens change the way we see the worldHe assumes that any screen is a touch screenHe prefers to navigate surfaces to retrieve information instead of divinginto nested structures.• Voice InterfaceDevices should understand us, and pull up some good animal videoswhen we ask.• Linear TV is deadTV is about watching what they want, when they want• Games are socialSharing playing experience• The alive web will be huge:You call people to share an experience,Turntable.fmGoogle’s HangoutsMeetingBurner 34
  • 35. Things my grandson taught me:• Touch screens change the way we see the worldHe assumes that any screen is a touch screenHe prefers to navigate surfaces to retrieve information instead of divinginto nested structures.• Voice InterfaceDevices should understand us, and pull up some good animal videoswhen we ask.• Linear TV is deadTV is about watching what they want, when they want• Games are socialSharing playing experience• The alive web will be huge:You call people to share an experience,Turntable.fmGoogle’s HangoutsMeetingBurner 35
  • 36. When will we have usable “Industrial Information” Machines ? It takes time not only for people to adopt technologies into their daily routines but also for technologists to figure out how to make things USABLE (experience) 33 years understand users: how they want to drive The Austin 7 was produced from 1922 through to 1939The Karl Benz Patent Motorwagen 1885,. by the Austin Motor Company. 36
  • 37. The rule: +/-30 years Specs aren’t important, the sum is more than the whole of their parts. Specs are tactical decisions in order to execute a larger strategy. What is ultimately important is the experience. 37
  • 38. The rule: +/-30 years Specs aren’t important, the sum is more than the whole of their parts. Specs are tactical decisions in order to execute a larger strategy. What is ultimately important is the experience. 38
  • 39. UX Revolution (experience) – Touch / Sound(Voice) / Move Era 39
  • 40. 2012: Sound/Voice is in 40
  • 41. 2012: Face recognition is in 41
  • 42. Prof. Clayton Christensen: Disruptive Innovation Model T1 T2 42
  • 43. What do people want ? 43
  • 44. Desktop and Mobile ecosystems begin to converge “BYOD : bring your own device" employees asserting control over the technology they use for work 44
  • 45. What about Productivity Software for non-wintel machines? Office 2015 ARM W8 45
  • 46. What do people prefer?The web ….. is still a computer-centric place:1. Computers are used to design, build, and create content for the Internet2. BUT the primary access devices to access the Internet will be smartphones and tablets. 46
  • 47. Israel (expected end 2012): Wintel: Q42011 compared to Q42010 Desktop PCs: -25% Notebooks: -35% 47
  • 48. Now for the world….• Android dominates today: 40 percent carry an Android OS-based phone, and 40% intend to purchase one in the next six months.• Apple’s iOS : Twenty-five percent own an iPhone, but 35 percent will buy one in the next six months.• Which mobile OS will lose? Only 22 percent of consumers intend to buy either a Java ME, HPWebOS (free/open source), BlackBerry or Windows Mobile-based phone ? 48
  • 49. Mobility v2: WORK is not a place you go, but a thing you do 49
  • 50. Four screens of convergence: TV, PC, mobile devices and in-car• We want to be connected 24X7• Each of these screens is useful during our day and each is connected to the cloud• IT should allow us to use the same business (IT supports ALL) and entertainment applications 50
  • 51. Can IT support all devices (at same time) ?• Employees will use as many computers and mobile devices as they wish.• Automatically keep their data in sync with a backup copy .• Solutions should be enterprise class : • Secure; reliable; maintainable • integrated to critical back-office systems 51
  • 52. 2012 game changers : Mobility and the new application world User interface/gamification 52
  • 53. Mobile Apps: The value of mobile is in the apps "specialized local apps running in conjunction with cloud-based services (private/public) in location aware devices “- 53
  • 54. What I think is happening: storage increase X2 Why waste all that every 12 months Increase in power, storage and network capacity per dollar power and storage? Only so it is easier for IT ? Processor power increase X2 every 18 months Networks increase slowly 3G > 4G TIME 54
  • 55. Mobile computing have made us : PC Internet Web/Cloud 55
  • 56. Mobile computing have made us :Mobile-computing devices has made us impatient and hungry for PC Internetinformation, entertainment or something to stave off boredom.The implications of this are :• mobile interactions have to happen quickly and frequently• users are unlikely to wait a minute for content to load• if repeat visits do not yield new information or experiences, Web/Cloud users will probably abandon the app or site for more dynamic ones. Post-PCs Internet Apps 56
  • 57. less to do with the worker and more to do with changes in the way that people work Client/Server V2 1. Most apps work on/off line Terminals V 2 2. Most of the time connected WEB/Browser client 3. Uses cloud/local applications 2 types of applications: 1. Off-line: processing and storage local 2. Always connected: Client/Server V1 browser based applications 2 types of applications: 1. Off-line: processing and storage local Terminals V1 2. Always connected : data and Always connected processing @server; GUI++ @client I/O only at the local ADVANCES/COST 1. Communications/networking 2. Processor/storage 3. Power /battery 57
  • 58. Native or HTML5 ? (funny the terminology) 58
  • 59. Two types of “personal computing” (based on experience?) 59
  • 60. Two types of “personal computing” (based on experience?) 60
  • 61. Will we see Apps for enterprises? 61
  • 62. Changes in the importance of the UX: 62
  • 63. Will social game methodologies reinvent how we do business ?• Social games create worlds where users: • Interact AND set targets • form teams to achieve goals • provide real time feedback to each other. 63
  • 64. What are we going to do “mobile” in 2012-3 ? 64
  • 65. What are we going to do “mobile” in 2012-3 ? 65
  • 66. 66
  • 67. 2012 game changers : E-bizz everywhere Mobile payments Context-based services 67
  • 68. E-bizz everywhere but differently• Mobile: Its not a matter of keeping up anymore; its a matter of staying in business• “FRIENDS” Pricing: Turn customers into a sales force by offering volume markdowns• Video Commerce: Ability to buy from within a product or other video• Search : The days of navigation You want to buy are really ending, search is in• Social Business: User ratings You want to choose and reviews on online products have to be mobile-ready 68
  • 69. Context based applications (where you are and what you’re doing) Company sends “future rewards” CONTEXT 69
  • 70. how to influence in-store, online and mobile shopping ?SHOPKICK automatically recognizes when someone walks into a store.“kickbucks” to the user for:walking into a retail storetrying on clothesscanning a barcodeother actions“kickbucks” redeemed across all partner stores forgift card rewardsFacebook creditsspecial discountsSHOPKICK expects to pass 1 billion product views this year 70
  • 71. 2012 game changers : Social-Driven Enterprise 71
  • 72. The Social Media Universe is Expanding 800 MM+ monthly active users 15MM+ users 800MM+ monthly users visit site 15MM+ users 232MM+ monthly active users 7MM+ users 230MM+ users 2MM+ users 135MM+ users 2MM+ users 115MM+ subscribers 2MM+ users 62MM+ users 1.5MM+ users 51MM+ users 500K+ users 20MM+ blogs 100K+ users More people on more social networks than ever before 72 EC
  • 73. The Social Media Universe is Expanding 800 MM+ monthly active users 15MM+ users 800MM+ monthly users visit site 15MM+ users 232MM+ monthly active users 7MM+ users 230MM+ users 2MM+ users 135MM+ users 2MM+ users 115MM+ subscribers 2MM+ users 62MM+ users 1.5MM+ users 51MM+ users 500K+ users 20MM+ blogs 100K+ users More people on more social networks than ever before 73 EC
  • 74. Facebook as the ultimate IT-Marketing function? 74
  • 75. Facebook’s Mission ? Make the World More Open and Connected ? 75
  • 76. Facebook’s Mission ? Make the World More Open and Connected ? 76
  • 77. Facebook’s Mission ? Make the World More Open and Connected ? 77
  • 78. Facebook will hit the ONE BILLION active users in 2012-13• Facebook Insights : Page owners can access information about their fans’ activities. • “People are talking about this” :know what posts have proven the most compelling and interactive • “Virality”: divides the number of “people talking about this” by the reach (the number of people who actually saw the content),. • fans are 40 to 150 times more likely to consume in their own news feeds than on the actual fan page• Facebook utilizes an algorithm: • The relevancy of content is determined by : • how many times it is liked • shared • commented on, etc.. • The most relevant content for each user finds its way onto that particular user’s news feed. • When fans of a company interact with branded content, it can then be passed on to their friends and their friends’ friends 78
  • 79. Are you going there? 79
  • 80. Amazon as the “ultimate” social enterprise…… 80
  • 81. Social Computing Adoption Curve What began as play and making friends is now driving business growth 81
  • 82. Challenge for IT : social interactions are everywhere• revisit business processes and the systems that implement them.• look across channels to re- define interactions.• look at new forms of data generated by those interactions and evaluate the potential insights they can get from them.• revisit the organizational structures that perpetuate the separation of channels.• update the metrics that define success for customer interactions. 82
  • 83. Location aware apps moving into context based apps Who? What? Where? When? 83 83
  • 84. “CONTEXT”: definitions Context enables the services that make sense right at the point where an action takes place. Context allows organizations to shift their focus from insight: • to actionable insight • to insight at the point of action 84
  • 85. context-sensitive service discovery applications 85
  • 86. In the future: social and context “enterprise” applications 86
  • 87. Mega-trend #2 of 21st century Data is in the driver’s seat 87
  • 88. Data issues: 88
  • 89. concept known as the “personal data locker” ($$$$$) 89
  • 90. concept known as the “personal data locker” ($$$$$) 90
  • 91. 2012 game changers : DATA Goes To Work: “New” Data Management Analysis Methods and Tools (Big Data) 91
  • 92. Information/data explosion ? 92
  • 93. Why BIG DATA ?• The modern human animal spends upwards of 11 hours out of every 24 in a state of constant consumption of information from the net: • we have grown obese on sugar, fat, and flour • we became gluttons for texts, instant messages, emails, RSS feeds, downloads, videos, status updates, and tweets.• Just as too much junk food can lead to obesity, too much junk information can lead to cluelessness• BIG DATA “should” help a company understand this information glut and is essential in order to be smart, productive, and sane. 93
  • 94. What is BIG DATA (Definitions) ?• "BIG DATA is data processing that exceeds the processing capacity of traditional systems. The data is too big, moves too fast, or simply doesnt fit traditional architectures “• BIG DATA processing is designed to economically extract value from: • high velocity (from Batch to Streaming; over 10 M rows per sec) • very large volumes (from TERA to PETA; usually over 15 TB) • wide variety (from Structured to Unstructured) 94
  • 95. BIG DATA Tools are based on the CAP or Brewers theoremIt is impossible for a distributed computer system tosimultaneously provide the following guarantees: 1. Consistency: all nodes see the same data at the same time 2. Availability: guarantee that every request receives a response about whether it was successful or failed 3. Partition tolerance: the system continues to operate despite arbitrary message loss 95
  • 96. NoSQL Systems vs. RDBMS• The problem with RDBMS’s is that their methods for: • Vertical scaling: adding more expensive hardware to a single node is very expensive • Horizontal scaling: adding more nodes with cheap hardware is very clumsy• NoSQL products try to solve CAP theorem constraints: • Have the ability to scale horizontally as a primary design objective • They sacrifice sophistication and control at the database level for the ability to scale easily and efficiently • Based on the needs of the application the relationship between the three attributes represent a spectrum, not a discrete relationship• We will see new products that: • “Bridge Technologies” : mix old and new database forms • advances from the new to re-invigorate the old 96
  • 97. Traditional and Big Data Approaches.. the difference: 97
  • 98. BIG DATA example: marketing cars Want to sell an Alfa Romeo car To this person 98
  • 99. BIG DATA example: marketing cars 99
  • 100. BIG DATA example: marketing cars 100
  • 101. Big Data example: Sentiment Analysis:• What do customers think of my product?• Are they happy with the services?• How do I impact my customers’ perception of me?• What do customers like about my competitors? 101
  • 102. Most common BIG DATA application: know your customer 102
  • 103. Example of a “BIG DATA” platform CRM Data POS Data Social Media Advanced Distilled Insight search and - Spending habits analysis - Social relationships - Buying trends 103
  • 104. We will see new “analytical tools” that are:The focus is verbal, processing Focuses on the visual, andinformation in an analytical and processes information in ansequential way, looking first at the intuitive and simultaneous way,pieces then putting them together to looking first at the whole pictureget the whole. then the details. non-verbal and intuitive, verbal and analytical using pictures rather than words. 104
  • 105. The Next Frontier? Storage Management 105
  • 106. 2012 game changers : Emergence of the Common Data Platform 106
  • 107. Architectures : “Data Platform” as opposed to “Big Data”Big Data Architectures: scale for variety, velocity and volume.Data Platform Architectures: scale for multiple usage of same data bymany applications concept of data ownership is no longer valid users will be creating, consuming, and sharing data with each other data governance, data responsibility as well as data accountability data exchange (MDM): where shared data can be published and accessed complexity : storage and access data valuation ($$$): ways that data is stored, shared, secured and destroyed. 107
  • 108. Need for a common data management platform ….. 108
  • 109. Mega-trend #3 of 21st century 109
  • 110. Do what Clients want? 110
  • 111. Do what Clients want? 111
  • 112. 2012 game changers : Buy or Develop ERP/core solutions 112
  • 113. Do what you do best (specialize) buy the rest (trade) -”Comparative Advantage”- -”A country has a comparative advantage in the production of a good or service that it produces at a lower opportunity cost than its trading partners”- 1810 113
  • 114. Packaged Software vs. Custom-Developed Systems Source: ComputerEconomics 2011 37% Large OrgsPercentage of application functionality from custom-developed systems 30% Midsize Large Orgs 63%Percentage of application functionality from commercial software packages Midsize 70% 114
  • 115. Gap Analysis vs. System Analysis Client needs Gap Analysis ~90% quite happy 17% maintenance = somebody else headache Demands mng, design, develop, testing Different needs  Gap Analysis Time Organizations attention time: • Project mng • Regulation • ~17% Maintenance 115
  • 116. Are ERP Systems a “fad” ? Started the field of knowledge called: Accounting Systems And Merchant Arithmetic: o Barter Systems o Exchange Systems o Profit (Revenue Recognition Systems)ERP (or by any other name) started to be “computerized”in Israel during the early 80’s• Between 1998 and 2010 the first wave of “enterprises” moved into ERP packages: 1. Most of these enterprises will be buying “industry specific” modules in 2011-2014• Now the second wave (smaller companies) is starting: 1. Local packages with vertical core systems 2. Smaller international packages 116
  • 117. 2012 game changers : Industrialization of IT: new and “efficient” IT 117
  • 118. The new IT Client/user Packaged Application 118
  • 119. The new IT Client/user 119
  • 120. Building of a lean IT “bunker” based on …….. ? 120
  • 121. Bunker Architectures can be “private clouds” by architecture 121
  • 122. More and more usage of Virtual Desktops 122
  • 123. 2012 game changers : Private, Public and Hybrid Cloud Architectures 123
  • 124. Products and Services in IT 124
  • 125. 5 types: Enterprise Clouds 125
  • 126. Super Hybrid Clouds : can IT handle it ?IT’s challenge becomes:• integration• identity management• data translation between the core and multitenant public cloud• orchestration for processes connecting private and public clouds 126
  • 127. Mega-trend #4 of 21st century RISK MANAGEMENT: 127
  • 128. 2012 game changers : IT Security Platforms Cyber Crime 128
  • 129. Your Text here Your Text here Shahar Maor’s work Copyright 2012 @STKI Do not remove source or attribution from any graphic or portion of graphic 129
  • 130. Cyber warfare/terror: “government”- responsibility and regulation 130
  • 131. IT security (Cyber Crime): Enterprise responsibility 131
  • 132. 2012 game changers : Business Continuity 132
  • 133. Are you as prepared as in Y2K ? 133
  • 134. 2012 game changers : Other Risks: • Project Management • Quality Assurance • Roll-out • Version Management/Production • others 134
  • 135. Forrester’s CEO George Colony: Vendors of the future 135
  • 136. Conclusion: part 1 136
  • 137. 137