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Presentation at CoCoon meeting in Cali, 22 of Sept, 09

Presentation at CoCoon meeting in Cali, 22 of Sept, 09

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Andes BFP Andes BFP Presentation Transcript

  • BFP Andes: concepts and advances
    • J. Rubiano and Andes Basin Focal Project Team
    • King’s College, University of London, jerubiano@gmail.com
    CoCoon Matchmaking Meeting
    Cali, Colombia - 22-23 September, 2009
  • Outline
    What is the Andes BFP
    Work and products
    Network of partners
  • BFPANDES : Aim
    The aim of the BFPANDES is “to have the best available science used in the formulation and testing of land and water policy for better livelihoods in the Andes”.
    BFPANDES : Key issues
    Institutions. Are the institutions using and sharing the best available information and if not why not?
    Optimal allocation. What are the biophysical, knowledge and power/equity barriers to optimal least-conflict allocation of water?
    Sustainability. Which management interventions maximize economic returns (production), alleviate poverty whilst minimizing degradation of water, soil and environment?
  • The Andes ‘basin’ (all basins above 500 masl) and the 13 key sub-basins
    Context:
    Transnational, globally important
    Heterogeneous (hyper humid to hyper arid)
    Steep slopes, competing demands on land use
    Environmentally sensitive
    www.ambiotek.com/aguaandes
  • Silvia Benitez Water Conservation
    Programme Co-ordinator
    Carmen Candelo Reina
    Governance and Livelihoods Program
    Director
    Noel Trejos Chief Scientist in
    Integral Management
    John Pender
    Economist
    Meagan
    Keefe
    Agricultural
    Economist
    Jairo Valderrama
    Biologist
    Edwin Pajares
    Director of Natural
    Resource Sharing
    Program
    Alonso Moreno
    Natural Resource
    Sustainable
    Management
    Programme
    Mario Aquirre Senior Officer
    Water Program
    Ernesto Guhl Cam
    SEI, Cauca University, Valle University, CAN, Proyecto GEF Paramo, CIAT, UNAL, CONDESAN, Kings College London, Universidad Autonoma,deOccidente,
  • Where are the poor?
    Why they are poor?
    Which are the related factors?
    Which are the opportunities?
  • % of population
    with unmet
    basic needs
  • Andean socio-economic selected indicators (1=FAO, 2=WHO, 3=CEPAL, 4=DHS, U=Urban, R=Rural)
  • Agriculture in theEconomy
  • 0.55
    0.50
    IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
    IN THE ANDEAN REGION
    1980 – 2007
  • Migration in theRegion
  • Urbanization of poverty
  • Public and private debt in the Andes
  • What is the current institutional context?
    What are their main constraints and advantages?
    What needs to be changed?
  • Colombia
  • Ecuador
    Peru
    Bolivia
  • INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INDEXVariables considered
    • Social
    Poverty measures (UBN and Poverty lines), Current status of education, health (Chronic and Total Malnutrition), demography, public services infrastructure, social and non social investment (including potable water and irrigation)
    • Economic
    Per capita consumption, purchase power, financial support.
    • Political
    People displaced by violence
  • Composed representation of key characteristics of
    IEI-Col = ∑ (A+B+C+D+E)/5
    A = No_Finance_Institutions
    B = Total_enrolled_Students (2005)
    C = Health_Investment (2006)
    D = Potable_Water_Investment (2006)
    E = Total_displaced_People_received (2001-2007)
    IEI-Ecu∑ (2(A+B)+C+D+E)/5
    A = Iliteracy_rate
    B = Unsatisfied_Basic_Needs
    C = Global_malnutrition_in_kids<5
    D = %_Poor_below_PovLine
    E = %_poor_below_extreme_PovLine
    IEI-Per = ∑ {(A+B+C+D+E+F) – (G+H+I)}/5
    A = No_kids_primary_school_completed
    B = No_kids_primary_school_finished_on_time
    C = No_educated_kids_between_4&5
    D = No_educated_kids_between_12&16
    E = No_young_Secondary_School_completed
    F = No_young_Secondary_School_finished_on_time
    G = Malnutrition_rate (1999)
    H = pople_no_electricity
    I = Adult_Iliteracy_rate (2005)
    IEI-Bol = ∑ (A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H)/5
    A = Education_Units
    B = No_of_teaching_rooms
    C = Human_Development_Index (2001)
    D = Yearly_Average_expenditure
    E = PerCapita_compsumption_USD-Year (2001)
    F = Social_Investments_USD (2006)
    G = Non_Social_Invest_USD (2006)
    H = No_Finance_Institutions
    Tough conditions, bigger effort
    Less difficult
    *
    * Standardize for the four countries, main capitals excluded
  • How much water?
    Where?
    When?
  • Methods : water availability
    Whole-Andes analysis of water availability at 1km spatial resolution using the FIESTA delivery model (http://www.ambiotek.com/fiesta) and long term climatologies from WORLDCLIM (1950-) and TRMM (1996-)
  • Results : water availability
    Total annual rainfall
    (mm)
    TRMM>
    <WorldClim
    trmm
    wclim
  • Actual evapotranspiration (mm/yr)
    Water balance (mm/yr) [worldclim]
  • J
    F
    M
    A
    M
    J
    J
    A
    S
    O
    N
    D
    Rainfall (mm/month) - highly variable spatially and seasonally, hyper-humid to hyper-arid
  • How water is used, by whom and where?
    What are the current and potential benefits out of water?
  • Methods : water productivity
    Water productivity : often defined as the crop per drop or yield per unit of water use but in BFPANDES defined more broadly as the contribution of water to human wellbeing through production of food, energy and other goods and services
    Whole-Andes analysis of plant production based on dry matter production calculated from SPOT VGT (1998-2008), masked to exclude trees.
    Whole Andes analysis of production per unit rainfall (crop per drop)
    Precise digitisation of all dams in the Andes using Google Earth Dams Geowiki (http://www.kcl.ac.uk/schools/sspp/geography/research/emm/geodata/geowikis.html)
    Calculation of dam watersheds using HydroSHEDS
  • Dry matter production
    (Kg/Ha./yr)
    [without trees]
    Results : water productivity
  • Dry matter production
    DMP (in g/ha/yr)
    <Averaged in
    500m elev. bands
    Averaged by
    Catchment>
    Lowest elevations have highest productivity.
    Colombian and Ecuadorian Andean catchments have
    Highest productivity along with Eastern foothill catchments in the South
  • <Crop per drop of rainfall (RUE)
    (g/Ha./mm)
    [without trees].
    Averaged by
    catchment
    Crop per drop > (g/Ha./mm)
    [without trees].
    for areas with <500mm rainfall
    Lowest elevations have greatest crop per drop. Small lowland-dominated Pacific and Eastern foothill catchments have greatest crop per drop
  • DMP (in Dg/ha/day)
    DMP (in Dg/ha/day)
    Elevation(m)
    Rainfall (mm/yr)
    Crop per drop of rainfall (RUE) (g/Ha./mm)
    Rainfall (mm/yr)
    Rainfall (mm/yr)
  • Dams : points in the landscape at which water=productivity
    Tropics : land areas draining into dams
    by: Leo Saenz
    Developed the first georeferenced global database of dams (www.kcl.ac.uk/geodata)
    There are at least 29,000 large dams between 40N and 40S
    57% in Asia, 23% in South America, 12% in Africa, 6.5 % in Asia and the Caribbean, 1.3 % Australia, 0.2 % Middle East. 80% are in the largest countries (China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mexico)
    33% of land area between 40S and 40N drains into a dam (capturing some 24% of rainfall and thissurface provides important environmental and ecosystem services to specific companies.
  • Water productivity : dams in the Andes
    Andes : 174 large dams
    Area draining into dams : 389,190 km2 (10.5% of land area)
    At least 80,300Mm3 of water storage capacity
    At least 20,000 MW HEP capacity
    Also used for drinking water, irrigation and industrial purposes
  • Environmental services : the role of cloudforests
    Peru/Bolivia % of water derived from cloud stripping
  • Tracing the impact of protected areas on water
    Assuming that water originating
    from protected areas is better than
    that originating elsewhere:
    As you travel downstream
    from the protected areas their
    contribution to flow diminishes as
    rivers are swamped with water
    from non-protected areas
    % of water originating in a protected area – WDPA 2009 (Colombia) [gl_pc_wc_fin]
    see www.kcl.ac.uk/geodata
  • Number of urban people drinking water originating in a protected area – WDPA 2009 (Colombia) [gl_sumurbpc]
    The beneficiaries can easily
    number millions of people. A
    strong case for PWS.
    see www.kcl.ac.uk/geodata
  • What have been made/attempted before?
    What is feasible to do from now on?
    With whom, where, how?
  • Strategic Interventions so far
    • Agricultural and income diversification
    • Compensation/ payment for environmental services
    • Risk Management
    • Institutional capacity building and policy dialogues
    • Access to irrigation infrastructure
  • Environmental vs. ecosystem services : cloud forest example
    An environmental service:
    Cloud forests occur underneath persistent ground level cloud in the tropics. This cloud generates:
    • high rainfall inputs
    • low evapo-transpiration
    The pan-tropical average cloud-forest water balance is 452 mm/yr cf 124 mm/yr for the tropics as a whole. This is a function of the climate in which the cloud forest sits not the cloud forest itself and would occur even in the absence of the forest.
    An ecosystem service:
    Cloud forests strip passing cloud/fog water very efficiently and this water ends up in the rivers. If the cloud forests are replaced by pasture, this stripping does not occur and the extra water is lost. This service is dependent on the ecosystem as well as the environment.
    Example of water from montane forests
    Peru/Bolivia % of water derived from cloud stripping
  • Potential for Aquaculture in the Andes
    Food Security - Is Aquacultureanalternative in Andean system?
    How this activity compete with others?
  • Products
    capacity built in local students, institutions/stakeholders through training, workshops and tools,
    (b) report, maps and baseline data diagnosing current status of water poverty, water productivity, environmental security and their social and institutional context along with likely future impacts (http://www.bfpandes.org)
    The AguAAndes Policy Support System – a web based tool for understanding the likely impact of particular scenarios of change and policy options on water and water poverty in any Andean catchment (http://www.policysupport.org/links/aguaandes).
  • The AGUAANDES POLICY SUPPORT SYSTEM
    SimTerra : the most detailed global databases, tiled
    +
    Detailed grid –based process models
    +
    Tools to test scenarios and policy options
    http://www.policysupport.org/links/aguaandes
  • Networking and Knowledge Sharing
    • Andes BFP Lima, Peru Workshop
    • Andes BFP Fuquene, Cundinamarca - Workshop
    • CONDESAN - Environmental Services Conference – Manizales, Colombia
    • Water Workshop at Externado University – Bogota
    • International Forum on Water and Food, Ethiopia
    • PROSUL Workshop, Brasil
    • Policy Support System On line questionnaire.
    • FINAL ANDES BFP MEETING - Agua2009 Conference, Cali – Colombia 9 – 11 NOV 2009 www.ambiotek.com/bfpandesworkshop
  • Gracias
  • Methods : Institutions
    Composed representation of a selection of key social, economical and political variables that helps answering where an intervention will face hash conditions, need higher effort and more investment.
    It also expresses which characteristics can be used as indicators of progress for development and poverty reduction strategies.
    It is made with the most reliable country data at municipal level.
    Methods for data processing include PCA, Cluster and Spatial Analyses.
  • COLOMBIA
    PERU
    ECUADOR
    BOLIVIA
    http://www.latin-focus.com/
    http://www.bcb.gov.bo/webdocs/Diciembre2008/estadodeuda2008.pdf