Gabriele Koehler SDL Lecture, 12 May 2011
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Gabriele Koehler SDL Lecture, 12 May 2011
- 1. Some new trends in development cooperation – nightmares and dreams? Gabriele Köhler Visiting Fellow, Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction Team, IDS, Sussex IDS Sussex Sussex development lecture Brighton, 12 May 2011
- 4. Human Development Index, trends 1970-2010
- 18. s Countries of the world estimated GDP in purchasing power parity, 2010
Editor's Notes
- Key points: Understanding of the politics of development cooperation and the „development architecture“ Sensitisation to the normative underpinnings of policy work Pitch for more emphasis on norms to lead the development agenda End of „North South“ dichotomy – poverty, unemployment and casualisation of work, social exclusion, climate change, food price inflation, affect people in all countries.
- Much of the optimism accompanying the MDGs is based on this trend.
- At the aggregate level, the human development index – a composite index combining per capita income, longevity and literacy – has improved steadily – but very slowly, over the past 40 years. Most countries have moved up within their grouping of high – middle – low HDI, and some have managed to move into a higher HDI bracket – such as China, Tunisia, Laos and Nepal. Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 2010
- It is positive that poverty globally has decreased. However the poverty line of $1,25 per person per day is extremely low, a one- dimensional understanding of poverty, and a level so minimal it is a slap in the face of human dignity.
- Overall, since 1980, the global number of people living in extreme poverty has declined from roughly 1.9 billion to 1.3 billion persons. This is positive of course, and again, much of the optimism accompanying the MDGs is based on this trend. Source: UN _DESA 2009
- Moroever, when looking closely, poverty actually increased in 2 major regions of the world. And: Using a one-dimensional income poverty indicator, $2 per person per day would be a more realistic poverty line. It shows a large absolute number of the world population under the poverty line, who are highly vulernable to economic, political, household and community or national-level level shocks. Also, indicators of income distribution have worsened globally, and even in countries where „dollar a day poverty“ has been decreasing, income disparities between the richest and poorest segments of the population – the Gini index – have widened (see UN-WIDER studies on income distribution).
- When disaggregating human development or poverty indicators, one sees that the outcomes for socially-excluded groups are worse, across all countries. Exclusion of individuals, groups, communities is based on their self- or externally ascribed identities (Naila Kabeer, 2006) There are different approaches to analysing social exclusion: Unfavourable inclusion, active/passive exclusion (Amartya Sen, 2000) Participatory exclusion (Bina Agarwal) And its impact: Economic inequalities: the socially excluded are “at the receiving end of an unfair distribution of assets and opportunities” Social inequalities: identity-based forms of discrimination and devaluation that treat members of these groups as of lesser status and worth than others Spatial inequalities: socially excluded groups frequently live in places that make them harder to reach or easier to Ignore Political inequalities: they are deprived of voice and influence in the decisions that affect their lives and their communities Naila Kabeer. Can the MDGs provide a pathway to social justice? The challenge of intersecting inequalities. www.ids.ac.uk 4 manifestations of social exclusion: Endowments and ownership of or access to assets Processes generating productive or primary entitlements Social provisioning Full and equal citizenship (UN DESA Report on the World Social Sitution 2010, p. 65 f)
- Moreover, chronic poverty and social exclusions are exacerbated by the impact of the crises – food and fuel price rises, financial and economic crises, the ensuing fiscal crises which have intensified since 2008. As a result of the 2008 ff crises, hu nger, already massive – with an estimated 900 million to 1 billion people living with daily hunger, has increase; formal sector unemployment is rising: child poverty is worsening. Data sources: International Labour Organization (ILO), World Social Security Report 2010-2011, p. 33. World Bank, The World Bank Group’s Response to the Global Economic Crisis, 2010, p. 11 ILO, Global Employment Trends 2011: The challenge of a jobs recovery, 2011, p. 12. Jessica Espey and Maricar Garde, The global economic crisis: Balancing the books on the backs ofthe world’ s most vulnerable children?, Save the Children, 2010, p.8. Ronald Mendoza, “Inclusive Crises, Exclusive Recoveries, and Policies to Prevent aDouble Whammy for the Poor”, Social and Economic Policy Working Paper, UNICEF Policy andPractice, 2010, p. 18. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), The State of Food Insecurity in theWorld: Economic Crises, Impacts and Lessons Learned, 2009, p. 4. Human Rights Council 2010. Report of the Independent Expert on the question of human rights and extreme poverty, Magdalena Sepúlveda Carmona. A/HRC/17/34. 15 March 2011. www.ohchr.org Unicef 2011 on climate change and children. 13 February 2009 – The spreading global economic crisis is set to trap up to 53 million more people in poverty in developing countries this year on top of the 130-155 million driven into poverty in 2008 by soaring food and fuel prices, bringing the total of those living on less than $2 a day to over 1.5 billion, according to the World Bank.. UN news.
- Exploitative interaction with extreme political violence and economic oppression. Colonialism can be seen as precursor of the “development” architecture. There were the colonial administrations with the purpose of exploiting and managing the colonies. There was also a large activity of research, investigations, reports and studies, as well as training for the colonial administrators, for example for the British colonial admininistration staff at British universities such as Oxford, which began even before World War I and was maintained through till the late 1940s. (Hevinden, Meredith: Colonialism and Development, New York, 1993). Some of this research was done by academics with a broad range of themes explored – from sociology and gender relations to engineering, crop culture, or irrigation systems. In the late 1940s, the economics profession began analysing underdeveloped economies and speaking of a distinct development economics (see Meier et al). The UN began its development economic related research in the 1950s.
- As the countries in Africa and Asia became independent, the relationships with the North change fundamentally. The independence movements were concerned with nation building and often introduced economic governance informed by a mixture of Keynesian economics and Soviet planning. It is notable that development aid in an institutionalised fashion, with “aid” offices within ministries of foreign affairs or dedicated development agencies, began almost simultaneously in all industrialised countries - the US, Europe and Japan - around 1960. OECD (Development Assistance Committee (DAC) was created in 1961. It is the organisation of the OECD donors and co-ordinates research and is a venue to discuss donor policies. The DAC also leads the subsequent monitoring and evaluation processes regarding what is now termed aid effectiveness. Furthermore the DAC now reaches out to non-DAC or “emerging donors”. The UN declared a Development Decade in 1960 centred on economic growth and transfers of capital and know how from the developed to the developing countries. There was a Second and Third Development Decade for the 1970s and 1980s.The are also decades on poverty eradication which were an outcome of the World Social Summit - (1 st UN Decade on Poverty Eradication 1997- 2006 and 2 nd UN Decade on Poverty Eradication 2008-17 ( United Nations. General Assembly. Fifty-first session Agenda item 96 f. Resolutions adopted by the General Assembly . First United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty. A/RES/51/178 . 16 Dec 1996). The development decades in some ways have been “replaced” by the more catchy Millennium Declaration and the MDG agenda.
- Indebtedness of the South after the oil price crises of the 1970s and because their exports were locked into low value-added, price-volatile commodity exports and the import of costly manufactured goods. The trade structure – see the terms of trade debate and structural inequalities raised by Prebish, Singer and UNCTAD - and balance of payment problems and debt crises were a lever for the North to put pressure on the South.
- The UN convened a series of global conferences and summits throughout the 1990s, many with a focus on social development. The ones on social development, women and children were especially influential for the Millenium Declaration and MDG agenda. Conference subjects: Children (1990) Education for All (1990, 2000) Least Developed Countries (1990, 2001 – Brussels – adopted Brussels Programme of Action, and May 2011 Turkey – with a New International Development Architecture proposed) Drug issues (1990, 1998) Food Security (1992, 1996) Sustainable Development (1992, 2002) Human Rights (1993, 2001) Population and Development (1994) Small Island Developing States (1994, 2005) Natural Disaster Reduction (1994, 2005) Advancement of Women (1995, 2005) Social Development (1995) Human Settlements (1996, 2001) Youth (1998) Millennium Summit (2000, 2005) HIV/AIDS (2001) Financing for Development (2002) Ageing (2002) Landlocked and Transit Developing Countries (2003) Information Society (2003, 2005) World Conference against racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance (2002) Source : http://www.un.org/docs/ecosoc/documents/2005/OcampobriefingFact%20sheet1.pdf
- Millennium Declaration and its operationalisation in the MDGs: remarkable degree of cohesion on development agenda in terms of objectives to be pursued and targets and even the indicators to measure progress, Used by many developing country governments in their planning statgies, by the IFIs in Poverty Reduction Strategies, and by the OECD DAC donors. Followed by Paris Declaration of Aid Effectiveness 2005 with a series of follow up conferences.
- Where do we stand in the late 2000s? 2008 can be seen as the beginning of a new phase in the development architecture, characterised by “bipolar” contradictory process and a “post-modern” ideology, also with contradictory positions coexisting. Broadly speaking, 3 sets of countries has emerged: the “developed”, “emerging” – used to be called “tiger economies”, and the “least developed countries” (LDCs). The BRICs – a term coined by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs in 2001 – to refer to a group of economically promising countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and sometimes South Africa which interestingly – through the concept was developed by a consultancy company – decided to meet periodically in this grouping. New development aid players: emerging economies and private foundations New donors operating outside MDG agenda or human rights Special funds skewing priorities, creating silos and inefficiencies Countries such as Korea, Malaysia, China, India, Venezuela, and many others, as well as the recent EU member states in Eastern Europe are becoming ODA donors, but on different terms, with a different set of objectives and values as the OECD DAC members. Divergent trends: an engagement for equity and social inclusion and participation coming from the multilateral system, juxtaposed with problematic developments with emerging donors not in tune with human rights or sustainable development concerns, and some developing countries buying natural resources and land from the poorest countries in an unequal exchange – some say with neocolonial dimensions - in a search for food security and fuel substitutes. See research by the Special Raporteur of the OHCHR on the right to food, or the April 2011 IDS conference on land grabs.
- The world re-sized by economic power, measured in GDP PPP ...
- .... which roughly corresponds to the G20 grouping. G20 established in 1999 compromising the finance ministers and central bank governors of the G7, plus Russian Federation, plus 12 other key countries. It gained momentum in 2008 when it started meeting at head of state level to respond to the massive financial crisis. Additional members of the G20: European Union Presidency European Central Bank Managing Director of the IMF President of the World Bank The Chairman of the Bank/Fund Development Committee UN Secretary General invited as an observor at the more recent meetings
- The increase in official development assistance (ODA) in 2008 is another argument for seeing 2008 as the beginning of a new development cooperation phase. Total ODA reached app 120 billion US$ in 2010. Interestingly, this does not show ODA from the smaller OECD countries such as Republic of Korea; from the new member states of the European Union such as Poland, Hungary, the Baltics, and others. Nor does it reflect ODA from the so-called emerging donors, such as the BRICs and donors such as Venezuela, Malaysia, Singapore and others. For the emerging BRIC donors, there are new estimates from the OECD DAC that emerging donors are spending $15 billion. Country level estimates suggest China and India are spending $US 1 billion, South Africa 285 million and Brazil $85 million anually (Rowland 2008). These are rough estimates since formal reporting by these countries is not available and development aid is housed in different bodies, and uses different assessment systems. Private foundations are spending an estimated $3-5 billion annually. The combined rise of non-DAC donors and foundations has considerably changed the landscape – or politics - of development cooperation.
- Health is one example of the fragmenting character of the new aid architecture – independent funds, bilaterals and private entities dwarf the core technical multilateral institution for health issues, the WHO, in terms of funding. Philanthropic foundations: there are currenty 120 special funds into which bilateral donors and foundations are contributing, partly fuelled by new rich. One example: the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. While philanthropy can be welcomed from its intentions, it creates silos, does not underly the parliamentary processes applied to expenditures financed from tax revenues, and creates a sort of privatist donor community. In the recipient countries, it creates additional management issues and reinforces a silo and skewed approach to identifying priorities and planning for them. For comparison: the total of the UN regular budget for 2010-11 is US$ 5 billion plus US$9 billion extrabudgetary funds (UN Budget 2010-11 at http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/64/6(INTRODUCTION)&refererence).
- “ G 192” – the 192 member states of the UN – taken as a metaphor for the global community – which, in theory, is the more legitimate group to discuss and decide on global economic, social and political development policies. The UN General Assembly would be the venue for this. It can be remarked however, that governments do not necessarily represent peoples, and some analysts have proposed some type of global senate of parliamentarians.
- Commonalities of the South and the North are expressed in research such as the Sarkosy Commission Report on human development, or the MDG Reports and HDRs examining some cities in “developed countries”. There is much South - South policy export, inter alia very visibly in the areas of social protection or in the movement for right to information. For examples from South Asia see A Bonnerjee and G Koehler, Hunger and food insecurity, Policy responses from the South. Forthcoming 2011. South-North policy export - Examples: Conditional Cash Transfer, modeled on Progresa and Oportunidades, introduced in the poorest boroughs in NY City; or the Grameen Bank model from Bangladesh, introduced in Chicago.
- Recent encouraging developments at the UN include the rights-based agenda – examples include decisions of the governing bodies of the FAO and WHO, and the new proposal to create an international convention on social protection for all. A more rights-based understanding of the MDGs is also emerging, and the role of the OHCHR deserves special mention as the reports of the special rapporteurs/experts are well researched, independent but engaged and critical analyses, and becoming increasingly influential.
- A reorientation of the MDGs. Based on the UN outcome document of the high level meeting on the MDGs, Sept 2010. Also see Voipio and Koehler, Policy innovations in 2010, at www.networkideas.org
- “ The mission of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights is to protect and promote human rights for all. OHCHR aims to ensure implementation of universally recognized human rights norms, strengthen the United Nations human rights programme, and provide the United Nations treaty monitoring bodies and special mechanisms established by the Commission on Human Rights with the highest support.” Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights: http://www.un-ngls.org/spip.php?page=article_s&id_article=827 Special Rapporteurs and independent experts are a „special procedures“ mechanism of the OHCHR. They are playing an increasingly prominent role and are moving from more legally-oriented themes to economic and social development. The list includes: on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions (1982) on freedom of religion or belief (1986-) on the sale of children, child prostitution and child pornography (1990-) on contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance (1993-) on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression (1993-) on violence against women, its causes and consequences (1994-) on the independence of judges and lawyers (1994-) on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment (1995-) on the adverse effects of the illicit movement and dumping of toxic and dangerous products and wastes on the enjoyment of human rights (1995-) on the right to education (1998-) on the question of human rights and extreme poverty (1998-) on adequate housing as a component of the right to an adequate standard of living (2000-) on the right to food (2000-) on the right of everyone to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health (2002-) of the Secretary-General on the situation of human rights defenders (2000-) on the situation of human rights and fundamental freedoms of indigenous people (2001-) of the Secretary-General on the human rights of internally displaced persons (2004-) on the human rights of migrants (1999-) on minority issues (2005-) on human rights and international solidarity (2005- on the effects of economic reform policies and foreign debt on the full enjoyment of human rights, particularly economic, social and cultural rights (2000-) on the promotion and protection of human rights while countering terrorism (2005-) on trafficking in persons, especially in women and children (2004-) on human rights and transnational corporations and other business enterprises (2005-) international solidarity or minority issues in (2005) water and sanitation (2008) TNCs (2009). In 2010, there were 41 Special Procedures (33 thematic mandates and eight mandates relating to countries or territories) with currently 55 mandate holders. See OHCHR Facts and Figures 2010.
- Source Seoul consensus 2010. G20 Seoul Summit. http://media.seoulsummit.kr/contents/dlobo/E3._ANNEX1.pdf In 2010, the G20, meeting in the Republic of Korea, adopted a development strategy. Interesting here the prominent role accorded to economic infrastructure, seen by many to have been neglected in the MDGs agenda. The points on job creation, human resource development and growth with reslilience - which is largely about social protection –can be seen as a deepening of the MDGs on employment, youth employment, and education. Finally food security has gained the prominence it deserves. However, the Seoul consensus is built on a ideology of private sector led growth, which surprises since the MICs among the G20 countries had growth strategies that relied heavily on the developmental state.
- Some authors see a “development revolution” in the South (e.g. Hanlon et al 2010), given the broad range of policy innovations of the past few years. The rights-based decent work agenda is spreading more slowly, but social protection has seen a vast expansion in recent years– Brazil, Mexico, many African countries, China, Indonesia, Thailand, most of South Asia with India in a policy leader role – are cases in point.
- Human development is meant in the broad and the deep sense.
- These are examples for policies that would move in the direction of rights-based transformative policy formulation: - on overcoming income poverty …
- ... ensuring equitable access to all social services ...
- ... and overcoming social exclusion
- At one time, the UN was “ahead of the curve” (Jolly et al/ UN history project). It needs to get there again by promoting transformational social justice values and project the same dynamic for progressive change for universal human rights that it displayed at its founding and when the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was conceptualised and presented. In 2015, the MDG agenda will be reviewed and either extended, deepened or replaced. The innovations need to come from the South and build on the progressive, rights based policy orientation of many “developing countries”, to create a genuinely rights based agenda for global development in South and North. One will need to find a good multidimensional concept. Ideas to inject into the discussions – which need to be led by the South - include, inter alia: the notion of human security, building on the ideas of promoting freedom from fear and freedom from want, which evolved into key domains of human security – food and nutrition, income and employment, health, education, access to water and sanitation, political security, social inclusion – and a combination of objective factors of human security and subjective plane of perceptions; or the notion of “3-dimensional wellbeing” conceptualised at the IDS by Andy Sumner and Allister McGregor; or “ MDGs plus”; and others.