Anticipatory Failure Determination

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Anticipatory Failure Determination <afd> is a method similar to FMEA in design, to extract and discover failures in design ad how to cope and manage these risks.

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Anticipatory Failure Determination

  1. 1. Anticipatory failure determination
  2. 2. Alternatives• Failure Modes & Effects Analysis [FMEA]• Potential Problem Analysis [PPA]• Hazards Operability Analysis [HAZOP]
  3. 3. What is AFD?• Failure Analysis – Thoroughly analyze given failure mechanisms• Failure Prediction – Obtain an exhaustive set of potential failure "scenarios"• Failure Precaution – Develop "inventive" solutions to prevent, counteract, or minimize the impact of the failure scenarios
  4. 4. What are the drawbacks in traditional approaches• Linear along design – Psychological Inertia – Looking from the design & designer POV• Little beyond the design, does not study – Excess and limited use scenarios – Prohibitive usage scenarios• Solution is a problem resolution stop gap – Not a design innovation
  5. 5. So how does AFD go about?1. Invert the problem inventive process – From "Why did the failure happen?" to "How can I make it happen?“ – Ethical hacking the design – Challenge to subvert the system design2. Identify failure hypothesis – Simulate and create previous failures3. Utilize Resources to resolve – Once failures are exposed and transparent – Design team gets into control measures – 7 categories • substances, field effects, space available, time, object structure, system functions, and other data on the system
  6. 6. A View to FMEA
  7. 7. Comparison of AFD with FMEACriteria FMEA AFDPurpose Identify potential failure, study effects, Invert the design, study past, identify failure prioritize and manage impact through scenarios, take innovative actions on harmful mitigation outcomes using TRIZ methodsScope System design, product design, process System design, product design, process design designTools Previous FMEAs, SMEs, internal engg & FMEA + problem formulation; inventive analogs warranty data, FMEA logic using : Inventive Principles, Standard Solutions, incorporation of System and Environmental ResourcesProcess Linear following design intent I terative and "inverted" or subversive by probing how failures can be deliberately created.
  8. 8. Comparison of AFD with FMEA
  9. 9. AFD is complementary to FMEAFMEA Step AFD IntegrationPotential Failure Failure Prediction | Cause – effect diagrams for the system (sub-system, component) | Inverted Problem formulation | AFD knowledge base (Checklists and Operators)ModesPotential Effects of Destroying the systems resistance to a specific effect | Making the system vulnerable | Intensifying the failure | Masking the failureFailurePotential Cause – effect diagrams | Localizing the failure | Inverted Problem formulation | failure generation methods | Failure providing components | Revealing failureCauses/Mechanisms components | Typical sources of high danger | Transforming harmless object intoof Failure danger | Intensifying an available harmful effect | Destroying the systems resistance to a specific effectRecommended Mitigating harmful effect through >> Eliminating the causes | Removing the source or properties | Modifying | Counteracting |Isolating | Increasing resistance | Modifying orActions substituting the effected object | Localizing | Reducing | Blending in defects | Transience | Facilitating detection
  10. 10. References• Genrich Altshuller, Boris Zlotin, Alla Zusman, Vitalii Filatov. “Searching for New Ideas.” Kishniev: Kartya Moldovenyaska Publishing House, 1989.• Boris Zlotin, Alla Zusman, “Solving All Scientific Problems” Kishniev: Kartya Moldovenyaska Publishing House, 1989.• Stan Kaplan, “Finding Failures before They Find Us: An Introduction to The Theory of Scenario Structuring and the Method of Anticipatory Failure Determination.” Proceedings of the 9th Symposium on Quality Function Deployment, June, l997. http://www.qfdi.org• Ideation International AFD™ Software, 1999. www.ideationtriz.com

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