10 07-11 leslie to mtg

358 views

Published on

CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
358
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

10 07-11 leslie to mtg

  1. 1. CALIFORNIA HOUSINGMARKET 2012 FORECASTMurrieta Temecula GroupWilson Creek WineryOctober 7, 2011Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist
  2. 2. Overview US and California Economies California Housing Market Regional & Local Markets 2011 Annual Market Survey 2012 Housing Market Forecast
  3. 3. U.S. Economic Outlook
  4. 4. 2011: A Year of Wild Cards Political Change on Oil Price Spikes Capitol Hill Arab Uprising Sovereign Debt Crisis in EuroZoneDebt LimitCeiling &Downgrade Stockof US Debt Market Volatility
  5. 5. Gross Domestic Product: Stall Speed 2010: 2.8%; 2011 Q1: 0.4% Q2: 1.0% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $ 8% 7% ANNUAL QTRLY 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-8% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Q2-10 Q4-10 Q2-11
  6. 6. Components of GDP:Consumer Spending Weak; Gov’t Sector Down Quarterly Percent Change 3.0 2.5 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 2.0 Q1 2011 1.5 Q2 2011 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Consumption Fixed Nonres. Net Exports Government InvestmentSOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  7. 7. Consumers Pulling Back Home Equity & Reverse Wealth Effect Consumer Spending 2011 Q1: 2.7% Q2: 0.4%8% QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE6%4%2%0%-2%-4% 1Q-2000 1Q-2001 1Q-2002 1Q-2003 1Q-2004 1Q-2005 1Q-2006 1Q-2007 1Q-2008 1Q-2009 1Q-2010 1Q-2011SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  8. 8. Unemployment Stubbornly High August 2011California (12.1%) vs. United States (9.1%)14% CA US12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  9. 9. U.S. Job Growth: Flat in August Month-to-Month Changes Recession Job Losses: 8.4 million Since Jan’10: +1.8 million 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0-100,000-200,000-300,000-400,000-500,000-600,000-700,000-800,000-900,000 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jul-11SOURCE: US Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. California Job Growth Faltering Month-to-Month Changes Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million Since Jan’10: +188,100 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 -40000 -60000 -80000 -100000 -120000 -140000 -160000 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Sep-10 Nov-10 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  11. 11. Where are California’s Jobs? Employment Trends:Construction & Financial Sectors Biggest Losers Year to Industry 2005 Jul-11 Date Mining and Logging 23,600 27,600 4,000 Construction 905,300 567,300 -338,000 Manufacturing 1,502,600 1,257,600 -245,000 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 2,822,100 2,641,500 -180,600 Information 473,600 455,400 -18,200 Financial Activities 920,300 755,800 -164,500 Professional & Business Services 2,160,700 2,136,200 -24,500 Educational & Health Services 1,593,400 1,837,000 243,600 Leisure & Hospitality 1,475,200 1,531,600 56,400 Other Services 505,500 484,500 -21,000 Government 2,420,200 2,380,200 -40,000 TOTAL 14,802,500 14,074,700 -727,800SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  12. 12. Nonfarm EmploymentRiverside/SB Metro Area, August 2011: Down 0.6% YTY Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
  13. 13. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Unemployment Rate Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Riverside County, August 2011: 14.7% Jan-10 Jan-11
  14. 14. New Home Sales Riverside County (Detached) 8000 , 2011 Q2 Sales: 653 Units 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Q1/88 Q1/89 Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94 Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 Q1/03 Q1/04 Q1/05 Q1/06 Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1/11SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®;Hanley Wood
  15. 15. 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160Jan-00Jul-00Jan-01Jul-01Jan-02Jul-02 INDEX, 100=1985Jan-03Jul-03Jan-04Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08 September 2011: 45.4Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09 Marginal Gains in SeptemberJan-10Jul-10 Consumer Confidence SlippingJan-11Jul-11
  16. 16. Crisis of Confidence: Small Business Optimism DownSource: National Federation of Independent Business
  17. 17. Consumer Prices Low but Heading Higher CPI August 2011: All Items +3.8% YTY; Core +2.0% YTYPERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984 6% All Items 5% Core 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
  18. 18. Monetary Policy
  19. 19. Mortgage Rates @ Historical Lows Debt Down Grade Ignited Flight to Quality FRM ARM6.00% MONTHLY WEEKLY5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00% 2009.01 2009.04 2009.07 2009.10 2010.01 2010.04 2010.07 2010.10 2011.01 2011.04 2011.07 8.4.11 8.25.11 9.15.11
  20. 20. Classic Liquidity Trap: Consumers Deleveraging Low Rates and Low Borrowing10%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2% FRM ARM1% Federal Funds0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
  21. 21. Fiscal Policy
  22. 22. US Deficit Highest in Decades 2010: 11% of GDP (Revenues – Expenses) 4.0% Deficit as a % of GDP 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: US Treasury, BEA, compiled by C.A.R.Note: Positive = Surplus
  23. 23. US Debt Jumped as Government Responded to Financial Crisis 2010: 93% of GDP 100.0% 90.0% Debt as a % of GDP 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: US Treasury, compiled by C.A.R.
  24. 24. Obama Jobs Proposal What: $450 Billion stimulus: Tax cuts ($250B) and infrastructure spending ($200B) Why: Economy is stalled/Avoid double-dip Zero job growth in August/high unemployment Stabilize confidence: consumer, business, investor How: Increase taxes on the rich Entitlement Reform Tax Reform
  25. 25. Housing
  26. 26. California vs. U.S. Sales US Home Sales CA Home Sales7,000,000 700,0006,000,000 600,0005,000,000 500,0004,000,000 400,0003,000,000 300,0002,000,000 200,0001,000,000 100,000 0 0 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  27. 27. California vs. U.S. Median Price US Median Price CA Median Price$600,000$500,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000 $0 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  28. 28. Housing Affordability: Records Highs California Vs. U.S. CA US 100% % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q1 2000 Q3 2000 Q1 2001 Q3 2001 Q1 2002 Q3 2002 Q1 2003 Q3 2003 Q1 2004 Q3 2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  29. 29. CA Underwater Mortgages Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA 40% 35% 30.2% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 4.6% 5% 0% Q4-2009 Q1-2010 Q2-2010 Q3-2010 Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011SOURCE: CoreLogic
  30. 30. Mortgage Originations: 1990-2010 • Refinance vs. Purchase ORIGINATION (BIL $) 30-YR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE 900 12.0% Refinance Originations (Bil $) 800 Purchase Originations (Bil $) Fixed Rate Mortgage 10.0% 700 600 8.0% 500 6.0% 400 300 4.0% 200 2.0% 100 0 0.0% Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94 Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 Q1/03 Q1/04 Q1/05 Q1/06 Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
  31. 31. What Happened?
  32. 32. Trustee Sales in Anaheim Scheduled for 10/7/10
  33. 33. 1872 W. Admiral, 92801•3 bd, 2.5 ba, built in 1982•Purchased in Sept 2005for $594,000 with 30%down.•In April 2006, added asecond for $57,000.•In Oct 2006, refinancedthe second into a newsecond for $100,000.•Defaulted in 2010•Zestimate of current value= $364,000.
  34. 34. 1572 W. Orangewood, 92802•3 bd, 2 ba, 2,016 sq ftbuilt in 1977.•Purchased in June 2003for $455,000 with 30%down.•March 2004: added asecond for $75,000;added a third for $90,500;added a fourth for$80,000.•Within one year ofpurchase, the property had$565,000 in debt on it!•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of current value•= $442,000.
  35. 35. 8871 Regal, 92804•3 bd, 2 ba, 1,314 sq ftbuilt in 1956.•Purchased as REO in2007 for $417,000 withzero down.•Had previously sold for$568,000 in 2005.•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of currentvalue = $367,500.
  36. 36. 2414 E. Underhill, 92806•3 bd, 2 ba, 1,459 sq ftbuilt in 1957.•Purchased for $640,000in July 2006 withpiggyback financing:$500,000 first and$140,000 second, i.e.zero down.•Defaulted in 2010.•Zestimate of currentvalue = $387,000.
  37. 37. Conclusions• Excessive borrowing against home equity is the untold part of the foreclosure story.• “House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis” by Mian and Sufi: American Economic Review :• 39% of new defaults from 2006 to 2008• attributable to home equity borrowing
  38. 38. Understanding theFinancial Crisis
  39. 39. Federal Issues – Critical Concerns High-cost Loan Limit - expires 10/1/11 Future of Fannie and Freddie in flux - Increase guarantee fee likely FHA targeted for market share drop Tax Reform on the horizon – MID? QRM (Qualified Residential Mortgage) 20% Down – Is the future of the 30 year mortgage in doubt?
  40. 40. U.S. Economic Outlook 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f • US GDP 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.6% 2.9% 1.7% 2.0% Nonfarm Job 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.6% -4.4% -0.7% 1.0% 0.9% Growth Unemployment 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 9.0% 8.9% CPI 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.3% Real Disposable Income, % 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% Change Forecast Date: September 2011SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  41. 41. California Economic Outlook 2005 2006 • 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012fNonfarm Job 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1%GrowthUnemployment 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.4% 12.0% 11.2%RatePopulation 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%GrowthReal DisposableIncome, % 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0%Change Forecast Date: September 2011 SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  42. 42. California Housing Market
  43. 43. California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price Housing Cycle Comparisons 1970- 2011 UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $ Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price 700,000 -44% 600,000 500,000 -61% -25% 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  44. 44. Dollar Volume of Sales Down 5% in 2011, Up 3% in 2012 $ in Billion % Change $ Volume of Sales Percent Change $350 50% $327 37% 40% $300 24% 30% $250 26% 20% $200 16% 10% 2% $150 3% 0% $129 -2% -1.0% -5% -10% $100 $150 $143 $147 -20% -19% $50 -22% -27% -30% $0 -40% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  45. 45. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence California, August 2011 Sales: 497,390 Units, Down 0.4% YTD, Up 10.2% YTY UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX 700,000 160 600,000 140 120 500,000 100 400,000 80 300,000 60 200,000 40 100,000 20 0 0 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
  46. 46. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes California, August 2011: $297,060, Down 7.4% YTY $700,000 P: May-07 $594,530 $600,000 $500,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230 $400,000 -59% from peak $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  47. 47. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan-88 MONTHS Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Unsold Inventory Index Jan-07 Jan-08 California, August 2011: 5.0 Months Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
  48. 48. Unsold Inventory Index (Months) Price Range (Thousand) Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 $1,000K+ 11.1 9.2 9.1 $750-1000K 7.0 6.9 6.2 $500-750K 6.4 6.3 5.6 $300-500K 5.7 5.6 5.2 $0-300K 4.8 5.1 4.6SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  49. 49. Unsold Inventory By Price Range Jan 2005 – August 2011 MONTHS 30 $0 - 300K $300-500K 25 $500-750K $750-1000K 20 $1,000K+- All 15 10 5 0 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jul-11SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  50. 50. Asking Rents for Class A&B Apartments Inland Empire, 2011 Q2: $1,089 Up 2.8% YTY $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Q3/97 Q2/98 Q1/99 Q4/99 Q3/00 Q2/01 Q1/02 Q4/02 Q3/03 Q2/04 Q1/05 Q4/05 Q3/06 Q2/07 Q1/08 Q4/08 Q3/09 Q2/10 Q1/11SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®;REALFACTS
  51. 51. Vacancy Rates for Class A&B Apartments Inland Empire, 2011 Q2: 6.2% VACANCY RATE 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1990 1993 Q4/95 Q2/97 Q1/98 Q4/98 Q3/99 Q2/00 Q1/01 Q4/01 Q3/02 Q2/03 Q1/04 Q4/04 Q3/05 Q2/06 Q1/07 Q4/07 Q3/08 Q2/09 Q1/10 Q4/10SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®;REALFACTS
  52. 52. Market Breakdown:Equity v. Distressed Sales
  53. 53. Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales60% Aug-10 Jul-11 Aug-11 44.5% 42.9% 43.7%40% 24.7% 25.2% 24.4% 19.3% 18.9%20% 17.5%0% REOs Short Sales Distressed Sales SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  54. 54. Tight Supply of Inventory for REO Sales Aug-11UnsoldInventory Index(Months) 8.1 9 8 7 5.7 6 5 4 2.6 3 2 1 0 Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
  55. 55. REO & Short Sales: Southern California (Percent of Total Sales) 100% Aug 2011 80% Short Sales REO Sales 60% 14% 26% 40% 24% 20% 20% 20% 35% 49% 12% 8% 0% 19% Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino San DiegoSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  56. 56. REO & Short Sales: Central Valley (Percent of Total Sales) 100% Aug 2011 Short Sales 80% REO Sales 7% 60% 23% 30% 40% 24% 19% 67% 20% 36% 37% 38% 41% 0% Madera Merced San Benito Sacramento KernSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  57. 57. REO & Short Sales: Bay Area (Percent of Total Sales) 100% Aug 2011 80% Short Sales REO Sales 60% 26% 40% 20% 15% 20% 18% 28% 15% 21% 45% 13% 0% 11% 10% 24% Marin Napa San Mateo Santa Clara Solano SonomaSOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  58. 58. REO & Short Sales: Rest of California (Percent of Total Sales) 100% Aug 2011 80% Short Sales REOs 60% 11% 7% 40% 8% 25% 5% 48% 7% 57% 13% 9% 20% 34% 25% 36% 20% 32% 39% 51% 0% 15%SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
  59. 59. California Foreclosure Filings August 2011 NTS: 24,260, -16.9% YTD • NOD: 32,338, -21.5% YTD Notice of Trustee Sale - Counts Notice of Defaults - Counts 65,000 6 Month Average: 60,000 NTSs: 23,806 55,000 50,000 NODs: 23,625 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-07 Sep-07 Jul-08 Sep-08 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jul-11 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
  60. 60. CA Foreclosure Outcomes August 2011 REO: -12.2% YTD • 3rd Party: -4.1% YTD • Cancel: -19.7% YTD REOs Sold to 3rd Party Cancellations 6 Month Average: 30,000 REO: 10,880 25,000 3rd Party: 3,616 Cancelled: 14,447 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Jul-11SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
  61. 61. CA Foreclosure Inventories August 2011 Preforeclosure: -17.5% YTD • Schedule for Sale: -17.8% YTD • Bank Owned: 7.0% YTD 6 Month Average: Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned Preforeclosure: 115,742 Schedule for Sale: 200,000 105,138 Bank Owned: 108,635 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Jul-11SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
  62. 62. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Q1/89 Q1/90 Q1/91 Q1/92 Q1/93 Q1/94SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council Q1/95 Q1/96 Q1/97 Q1/98 Q1/99 Q1/00 Q1/01 Q1/02 Foreclosures Riverside County Q1/03 Q1/04 Q1/05 Q1/06 Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1/11
  63. 63. Riverside Preforeclosure: 1,167 • Auction: 1,235 • Bank Owned: 504Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/05/11
  64. 64. Riverside Preforeclosure: 1,167Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/05/11
  65. 65. Riverside Auction: 1,235Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/05/11
  66. 66. Riverside Bank Owned: 504Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/05/11
  67. 67. Temecula Preforeclosure: 427 • Auction: 371 • Bank Owned: 157Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/05/11
  68. 68. Murrieta Preforeclosure: 454 • Auction: 463 • Bank Owned: 202Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/05/11
  69. 69. Regional Housing Markets
  70. 70. Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Consumer Confidence Riverside County, August 2011: 2,320 Units, Down 2.5% YTD, Up 11.2% YTY UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX 3500 160 3000 140 120 2500 100 2000 80 1500 60 1000 40 500 20 0 0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®;The Conference Board
  71. 71. Sales of Existing Detached HomesRiverside County, 2010: 26,044 Units, Down 19.2% YTY UNITS ANNUAL MONTHLY35,000 3,50030,000 3,00025,000 2,50020,000 2,00015,000 1,50010,000 1,000 2008 5,000 2009 500 2010 0 2011 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 0 Oct Jun Aug Jan Apr Jul Nov Sept Feb Dec Mar MaySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  72. 72. Median Price of Existing Detached HomesRiverside County, August 2011: $202,060, Down 2.9%YTY $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  73. 73. Median Price Annual Comparison Riverside County, 2010: $206,180, Up 12.9% YTY ANNUAL MONTHLY $450,000 $450,000 $400,000 $400,000 $350,000 $350,000 $300,000 $300,000 $250,000 $250,000 $200,000 $200,000 $150,000 $150,000 $100,000 $100,000 2008 2009 $50,000 2010 $50,000 2011 $- $- 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Nov Jun Aug Jan Jul May Sept Oct Feb Apr Dec MarSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  74. 74. Median Home Sales Price Riverside County Yearly % Aug-10 Aug-11 Change AGUANGA $119,000 $25,000 -79.0% ANZA $103,000 $172,500 67.5% BANNING $138,000 $113,250 -17.9% BEAUMONT $193,000 $185,000 -4.2% BLYTHE $117,500 $159,500 35.7% CABAZON $290,000 $48,500 -83.3% CALIMESA $162,000 $77,000 -52.5% CATHEDRAL CITY $160,000 $139,500 -12.8% COACHELLA $146,000 $135,500 -7.2% CORONA $325,000 $314,000 -3.4% DESERT HOT SPRINGS $89,500 $89,250 -0.3% HEMET $125,000 $120,000 -4.0% HOMELAND $50,000 $279,000 458.0%SOURCE: DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived fromall types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
  75. 75. Median Home Sales Price Riverside County Yearly % Aug-10 Aug-11 Change IDYLLWILD $190,000 $186,000 -2.1% INDIAN WELLS $415,000 $483,500 16.5% INDIO $180,000 $160,000 -11.1% LA QUINTA $275,000 $242,500 -11.8% LAKE ELSINORE $200,000 $182,000 -9.0% MECCA $55,000 $35,000 -36.4% MENIFEE $211,000 $195,000 -7.6% MIRA LOMA $311,500 $240,000 -23.0% MORENO VALLEY $156,000 $159,000 1.9% MOUNTAIN CENTER $136,500 $299,500 119.4% MURRIETA $250,000 $242,500 -3.0% NORCO $372,500 $340,000 -8.7% NUEVO $155,000 $145,000 -6.5%SOURCE: DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived fromall types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.

×