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Economists’ PanelChristina Romer vs. Greg Mankiw        Moderated by Lawrence Yun          NAR 2013 Issues Conference     ...
70                                                                                          75                            ...
100                                                                                                   120                 ...
THE BABY BOOM, THE BABY BUST,             AND THE HOUSING MARKET         N. Gregory Mankiw and David N. Weil              ...
The Greatest Generation! From Poverty to Victory to ProsperityBaby Boomer parents were the ‘Greatest’ and what role did th...
Soviet JokePretend the ‘train is moving’ … led to complacency and eventual collapse
The Lost Generation ! (?)Is America pretending we don’t have problems on entitlement obligations?
Federal Government                Tax Revenue and Spending                                            Revenue             ...
The Role of Government• Reagan … Wanted Small Government  – How? Run up big deficits …. this is the only way    for people...
25,000                                                              27,000                                                ...
50,000                     55,000                              60,000                                       65,000        ...
Wealth Distribution              (Federal Reserve data on median net worth)$300,000                                       ...
Bully or Smartest Person in the World?                            Really, he’s a …
Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve           (zero rate policy to 2015 ?)    %                                  Fed Funds6...
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from          Quantitative Easing                                  Total Assets3500000      ...
1                                                          2                                                          4   ...
Nation’s Mobility Rate               From 18% to 12%       Fraction of Population Who Moved in the Last 12 Months         ...
Person of the Century?            In regards to impacting the economic well-            being, should Deng Xia-Ping be con...
Will China overtake the U.S. in GDP?        It depends on Singapore           U.S. (growing 3%)   China (growing 8%)250002...
Persons of the Millennia?The Glorious Revolution of William and Mary definitively affirmed thepower of the parliament and ...
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2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)

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For those interested in NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s conversation with Christina Romer and Gregory Mankiw at the 2013 NAR Issues Conference, here is the PPT that was used.

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2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)

  1. 1. Economists’ PanelChristina Romer vs. Greg Mankiw Moderated by Lawrence Yun NAR 2013 Issues Conference Dana Point, CA February 15, 2013
  2. 2. 70 75 80 85 95 100 105 110 90 115 2007 - Jan 2007 - Apr 2007 - Jul 2007 - Oct 2008 - Jan 2008 - Apr 2008 - Jul 2008 - Oct 2009 - Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 - Jul 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jul 2010 - Oct 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - July Homebuyer Tax Credit 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012-Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct Pending Home Sales IndexWas the home buyer tax credit a success in stopping bleeding in housing?
  3. 3. 100 120 160 180 200 220 140 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan Home Price Index 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan Tax Credit 2010 - Jul Homebuyer 2011 - JanHome prices essentially stabilized after the tax credit after steep declines. 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul
  4. 4. THE BABY BOOM, THE BABY BUST, AND THE HOUSING MARKET N. Gregory Mankiw and David N. Weil Harvard University • Written in 1988 • “ … real housing prices will fall substantially over the next two decades.” • “ … because the Baby Bust generation is now entering its house-buying years, housing demand will grow more slowly in the 1990s than in any time in the past forty years.”Will Baby Bust impact will be mitigated from population growth and immigration?
  5. 5. The Greatest Generation! From Poverty to Victory to ProsperityBaby Boomer parents were the ‘Greatest’ and what role did the government play or not?
  6. 6. Soviet JokePretend the ‘train is moving’ … led to complacency and eventual collapse
  7. 7. The Lost Generation ! (?)Is America pretending we don’t have problems on entitlement obligations?
  8. 8. Federal Government Tax Revenue and Spending Revenue Spending4000000 12-month tally in $ million350000030000002500000200000015000001000000 500000 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan Should deductions be limited to raise revenue or should spending be cut?
  9. 9. The Role of Government• Reagan … Wanted Small Government – How? Run up big deficits …. this is the only way for people to understand the need to restrain spending• Obama … Wants Big Government – How? Run up big deficits … this is the only way for people understand the need to pay higher taxes
  10. 10. 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 37,000 39,000 41,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1982 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q1 In thousands 1985 - Q1 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1988 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q1 1991 - Q1 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q1 1994 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q1Are we headed towards a Renter Nation? Renter Households 2003 - Q1 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q1 2006 - Q1 2007 - Q1 2008 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1
  11. 11. 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,0001980 - Q11981 - Q11982 - Q11983 - Q11984 - Q1 In thousands1985 - Q11986 - Q11987 - Q11988 - Q11989 - Q11990 - Q11991 - Q11992 - Q11993 - Q11994 - Q11995 - Q11996 - Q11997 - Q11998 - Q11999 - Q12000 - Q12001 - Q12002 - Q12003 - Q12004 - Q12005 - Q1 Homeowner Households2006 - Q12007 - Q12008 - Q12009 - Q12010 - Q12011 - Q12012 - Q1
  12. 12. Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth)$300,000 Bubble Crash$250,000$200,000 1998 2001$150,000 2004$100,000 2007 2010 $50,000 2014 $0 2014 Forecast by NAR Renter OwnerIs Lawrence Summers right that hedge funds becoming owners while good renters arehaving great difficulty obtaining mortgages?
  13. 13. Bully or Smartest Person in the World? Really, he’s a …
  14. 14. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?) % Fed Funds6543210 Will loose monetary policy lead to future inflation?
  15. 15. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing Total Assets3500000 $ million30000002500000200000015000001000000 500000 0 1-Aug-07 1-Aug-08 1-Aug-09 1-Aug-10 1-Aug-11 1-Aug-12 Will the Fed report losses in the future when interest rates rise?
  16. 16. 1 2 4 5 0 3 -1 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul Owners Equivalent Rent 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul (the biggest weight to Consumer Price Index) Renters Rent 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan3.8% tax on rental income … higher future rent? 2012 - Jul Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth Nearing 3%
  17. 17. Nation’s Mobility Rate From 18% to 12% Fraction of Population Who Moved in the Last 12 Months (Any Distance) .2.18.16.14.12 .1 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Falling mobility naturally implies less movement up the economic ladder. What should and shouldn’t be done to reverse the trend?
  18. 18. Person of the Century? In regards to impacting the economic well- being, should Deng Xia-Ping be considered as someone who lifted the most people out of poverty (by abandoning Mao policy and implementing wealth creation policies) and hence the person of the century?
  19. 19. Will China overtake the U.S. in GDP? It depends on Singapore U.S. (growing 3%) China (growing 8%)250002000015000100005000 0 1937 1929 1933 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
  20. 20. Persons of the Millennia?The Glorious Revolution of William and Mary definitively affirmed thepower of the parliament and the rule of law (and not the arbitrarypowers of Kings and Queens), which thereby guaranteed that theEnglish-speaking people would rise to the top in economicdevelopment.

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