SEVS scenario presentation

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SEVS scenario presentation

  1. 1. Scenario planning - widening the perspective in SEVS P A Martin Börjesson www.futuramb.se martin@futuramb.se @futuramb +46 704 262891 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  2. 2. Blind ”spot” = great risk Uncertainty in time Future Uncertainty in issue Traditional prediction Possible future outcomes Identify the most important trends and driving forces! 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  3. 3. Uncertainty in time Future Scenario A Scenario B Uncertainty in issue Possible Traditional prediction future outcomes Scenario C Scenario D Identify the uncertainties with most impact = critical uncertainties 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  4. 4. Proactivity The SEVS scenarios Critical uncertainties Political control ECO RADICALISM IN Scenarios POLITICAL HARMONY No change in Radical change in transportation transportation patterns by patterns by life style life style INCREMENTAL ECO DEVELOPMENT INDIVIDUAL Scenarios Political passivity 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  5. 5. Scenario planning process 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  6. 6. Scenario planning assumes an outside-in perspective... External environment rap es Ec and og valu on co hy om m Transaction em rs, y, pan d d to ind ie an l fac environment us s cia trie So s Internal world tio s ns Tec nnov an eg law di hn atio d r s, ula an olitic olo gy n P Environment and ecology 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  7. 7. ...and facilitates a search for Visible underlying driving F E G forces and critical effects uncertainties ? D Economy, industries and Technology companies development X and innovation ? C Politics, laws and regulations Environment Driving forces and ecology - critical uncertainties Social factors, valuesB Aand demography - predetermined elements 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  8. 8. Scenario planning - meeting 3 challenges 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  9. 9. Challenge 1 - Collective blind ”spot” due to ”group think” Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Uncertainty in issue Possible future outcomes 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  10. 10. Challenge 2 - Inaction (or scattering of resources) due to fragmented perspectives Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Prediction Uncertainty in issue Prediction Possible future Prediction outcomes 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  11. 11. Challenge 3 - balancing different groups, processes and knowledge areas Future ? Solving the problems of the Solving tomorrow’s future with today’s tools problems with tomorrow’s tools Context/situation Analysts, politicians & leaders Engineers Solving today’s problems & researchers Solving today’s with today’s tools problems with (everybody) tomorrow’s tools Current Current Technologies/knowledge/tools Future 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010

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