SEVS scenario presentation

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  • 1. Scenario planning - widening the perspective in SEVS P A Martin Börjesson www.futuramb.se martin@futuramb.se @futuramb +46 704 262891 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 2. Blind ”spot” = great risk Uncertainty in time Future Uncertainty in issue Traditional prediction Possible future outcomes Identify the most important trends and driving forces! 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 3. Uncertainty in time Future Scenario A Scenario B Uncertainty in issue Possible Traditional prediction future outcomes Scenario C Scenario D Identify the uncertainties with most impact = critical uncertainties 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 4. Proactivity The SEVS scenarios Critical uncertainties Political control ECO RADICALISM IN Scenarios POLITICAL HARMONY No change in Radical change in transportation transportation patterns by patterns by life style life style INCREMENTAL ECO DEVELOPMENT INDIVIDUAL Scenarios Political passivity 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 5. Scenario planning process 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 6. Scenario planning assumes an outside-in perspective... External environment rap es Ec and og valu on co hy om m Transaction em rs, y, pan d d to ind ie an l fac environment us s cia trie So s Internal world tio s ns Tec nnov an eg law di hn atio d r s, ula an olitic olo gy n P Environment and ecology 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 7. ...and facilitates a search for Visible underlying driving F E G forces and critical effects uncertainties ? D Economy, industries and Technology companies development X and innovation ? C Politics, laws and regulations Environment Driving forces and ecology - critical uncertainties Social factors, valuesB Aand demography - predetermined elements 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 8. Scenario planning - meeting 3 challenges 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 9. Challenge 1 - Collective blind ”spot” due to ”group think” Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Uncertainty in issue Possible future outcomes 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 10. Challenge 2 - Inaction (or scattering of resources) due to fragmented perspectives Uncertainty in time Future Prediction Prediction Uncertainty in issue Prediction Possible future Prediction outcomes 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 11. Challenge 3 - balancing different groups, processes and knowledge areas Future ? Solving the problems of the Solving tomorrow’s future with today’s tools problems with tomorrow’s tools Context/situation Analysts, politicians & leaders Engineers Solving today’s problems & researchers Solving today’s with today’s tools problems with (everybody) tomorrow’s tools Current Current Technologies/knowledge/tools Future 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 12. SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE ...and provides a common mental CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE Scenarios widens the A description of society is necessary Several scenarios must be examined in platform for thinking, collaborating to determine the feasibility of a vehicle order to understand how a sustainable concept. transportation system should be develo- 20 g/km 10 g/km perception, captures the Any more significant changes in vehicle ped and implemented. and communicating in an uncertain specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle complexity... buyers modify their requirements and SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE may require changes in how they use CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE and complex environment... SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE A description of society is necessary the vehicles. Several scenarios must be examined in A description of society is determine the feasibility of a vehicle examined into understand how a sustainable necessary Several scenarios must be A description of society is necessary 40 g/km Several scenarios must be examined in 30 g/km to order to determine the feasibility of a vehicle order to understand how a sustainable to determine the feasibility of a vehicle order to understand how a sustainable concept. transportation system should be develo- concept. transportation system should be develo- 20 g/km concept. 10 g/km 20 g/km 10 g/km transportation system should be develo- 20 g/km 10 g/km Any more significant changes in vehicle ped and implemented. ped and implemented. Any more significant changes in vehicle ped and implemented. Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with Same vehicle – different results! specifications, like smaller vehicles with like smaller vehicles with specifications, limited range, necessitate that vehicle necessitate that vehicle limited range, necessitate that vehicle limited range, buyers modify their requirements and their requirements and buyers modify their requirements and buyers modify may require changes in how they use may require changes in how they use the vehicles. may require changes in how they use the vehicles. the vehicles. 40 g/km 30 g/km 40 g/km 30 g/km 40 g/km 30 g/km Same vehicle – different results! Same vehicle – different results! Scenario A Scenario B A few solutions are fairly Infrastructure support for effectively pushed by – different results! Same vehicle new vehicle types, how- legal requirements and ever, innovation is guided incentives. Customers by strict standards. The do not take an active winning solutions are SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE role inGTE development, so personal flexibility is spread to whole society effectively. not a main factor when A description of society is necessary Several scenarios must be examined in selecting solution. to determine the feasibility of a vehicle order to understand how a sustainable A few solutions are fairly Infrastructure support for A few solutions are fairly Infrastructure support for effectively pushed by new vehicle types, how- concept. transportation system should be develo- effectively pushed by new vehicle types, how- 20 g/km 10 g/km legal requirements and ever, innovation is guided Any more significant changes in vehicle pedrequirements and legal and implemented. ever, innovation is guided incentives. Customers by strict standards. The incentives. Customers do not take an active by strict standards. The winning solutions are Small market demand for Many innovative and do not take an active role in development, spread to whole society specifications, like smaller vehicles with Awinning solutionsare fairly few solutions are Infrastructure support for innovative vehicles. A few so personalextreme vehicles, flexibility is effectively. role in development, spread to whole society effectively pushed by new vehicle types, how- large brands dominate not a main factor whenin high price especially limited range, necessitate that vehicle so personal flexibility is effectively. legal requirements and ever, innovation is guided market with similar the segment. Volume market selecting solution. not a main factor when buyers modify their requirements and selecting solution. incentives. Customers by strict standards. The type of solutions. is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by may require changes in how they use do not take an active winning solutions are trend setters. role in development, spread to whole society the vehicles. so personal flexibility is effectively. not a main factor when 40 g/km 30 g/km Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few Many innovative and extreme vehicles, Small market demand for Many innovative and selecting solution. large brands dominate especially in high price innovative vehicles. A few extreme vehicles, the market with similar segment. Volume market large brands dominate especially in high price type of solutions. is far behind and seen as the market with similar segment. Volume market ”stone age” solutions by type of solutions. is far behind and seen as trend setters. ”stone age” solutions by trend setters. Same vehicle – different results! Small market demand for Many innovative and innovative vehicles. A few extreme vehicles, Scenario D large brands dominate especially in high price Scenario C the market with similar segment. Volume market e V2 i v e a n i n g ra an t. sy tion ys s nc s A l o m t te a s su ng rak ) y s ze s r C ys re s -lo ni on pp s ing s M s I2 e y b ing t s em er type of solutions. is far behind and seen as em m st p ac m i t y te m fo t s tu t s si a e re c o mu nti te dr urb rak te ov V r in ar re cu p ck ca nc s it ain uc or yst st fe in t of oc e im an e e en b ”stone age” solutions by re tr s L an erg t s e d i ncy d res d s 10 r in n fo a d en em thre V pi 20 n pe ge trend setters. er e a be to n lim tr c io f s er s p ve nt d ke g d gg t yp ly ou e /h pro fro s nt o e m du e ve m gre h sh ti WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2 k m I m ew ov e r t i o e d s a s cra s ac no e to 0 d ee M int s t a o s t N t e r ve n A u (3 6 e - to a n it ytic temdap Bo Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase em Pr tivece up tri s st n c em has shown that future vehicles and road transports can 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging ap re oc sy V2 i v e a n i n g ra an t. sy tion ys s A l o m t te a s su ng rak ) y s ze s r C asys are s -lo ni on pp s ing s I2 e y b ng t s em st em m st p ac 80 m omt ictu t s si a e n s re on cr c o mu nti te dr urb rak te sy d ke n c s i V r in ar re cu p ck ca io it utain at c or yst st ad fe in t be both very safe and energy efficient. society and technology to create future sustainable road of oc im an e e en u m 0 iti at b ty lim A tr mtr te 01 os s L an erg t s ig g d re e d i cy d e s u to s fe V2 i v e a n i n g ra an t. sy tion ys s A l o m t te a s su ng rak ) y s ze s s -lo ni on pp s ing s d ys 2 p av in n fo a sa I2 e y b ng n t s em transport solutions. em m st p ac m ee d r Aen em thre V pi n pe rge t s si a e t s lts er e a be c o mu nti N dr urb rak to n te te d ke n c s i V r in ar re cu p ck ca ed fo A few solutions are fairly Infrastructure support for or yst st c in t s p ove nt in e of oc e im an e e en tio f s e gg t yp ely ou e b ra tb at o en o em du e m gre s an rg s pr fr e d i cy v st ea tiv r h sh ti m L e at WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2 k m I m ew in n fo effectively pushed by new vehicle types, how- r v on d s du e en a s cra s ac no e ac Re S V pi te t at i s te to 0 d er e a be N to n rg h c p o t g d tio f s e A u (3 6 gg t yp ly e - to a n as da o legal requirements and ever, innovation is guided Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase en o em ve em B n pe P r t i ve p /h cr tri cu s h sh ti WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2 e- st r v on d em a s cra s ac 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging te t i te has shown that future vehicles and road transports can ap oc sy Pr incentives. Customers by strict standards. The st 80 in pt a o s a a n ad on cr t in sy e - to a n m c io ic a o Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase be both very safe and energy efficient. society and technology to create future sustainable road to at i m iti tic at ad B www.sevs.se at 19 ty P r t i ve u p do not take an active winning solutions are tri te o s Au m ig fe c to ys p av sa has shown that future vehicles and road transports can 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging ap oc s transport solutions. t s lts Au N ed role in development, spread to whole society ad n cr in e M s ms itio p p s i n g to m at i c ra tb at be both very safe and energy efficient. society and technology to create future sustainable road st ea tiv i t y e m te o s n g r a k ) A u to m so personal flexibility is effectively. ac Re S C s t ys p ...and is a powerful navigation transport solutions. I 2 e y b ing Au h as not a main factor when cr V2 i v e a n i n g ra an t. sy tion ys s s A l o m t te a s y s ze s s -lo ni on s e- t s em er em m st p ac m Pr t s si a e c o mu nti te dr urb rak te ov selecting solution. V r in ar re cu p ck ca nc s or yst st in t of oc im an e e en www.sevs.se b 19 s L an erg t s re e d i cy in n fo a tool when going down the road n em re V pi n pe rge er e a be to n th c su d ke g d tio f s e gg t yp ely www.sevs.se 19 ou e en o em du e m gre v h sh ti WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2 r v on d s a s cra s ac no de te t i te in pt a o s 60 t e - to a n ic a o Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase towards the future em at ad B Pr e p 2010-06-15 to tri tiv cu st Au Smallshown that future vehicles and road transports can has market demand for 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging ap oc sy Many innovative and n ad on cr m ic io © SEVS 2010 innovativevery safe and energy efficient. be both vehicles. A few society and technology to create future sustainable road m iti at at extreme vehicles, te o s Au m ig to ys p av s transport solutions. to t s elts Au large brands dominate especially in high price tb ea
  • 13. SEVS scenario learning journey Future Scenario A Scenario B Solving tomorrow’s Scenario C Scenario D problems with tomorrows tools Context/situation A B C D Current Current Technologies/knowledge/tools Future 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 14. Scenarios are – Stories - and not predictions – Hypothesies - and not theories – Divergent - and not convergent – ...vehicles for supporting a collective learning process about the future in order to take the right decisions today 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010
  • 15. learning Scenario planning thinking 2010-06-15 © SEVS 2010