1. Scenario planning
- widening the perspective in SEVS
P A Martin Börjesson
www.futuramb.se
martin@futuramb.se
@futuramb
+46 704 262891
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

2. Blind ”spot” = great risk
Uncertainty in time
Future
Uncertainty
in issue
Traditional prediction Possible
future
outcomes
Identify the most
important trends
and driving forces!
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

3. Uncertainty in time
Future
Scenario A Scenario B Uncertainty
in issue
Possible
Traditional prediction
future
outcomes
Scenario C Scenario D
Identify the
uncertainties with
most impact =
critical uncertainties
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

4. Proactivity The SEVS scenarios
Critical uncertainties Political control
ECO RADICALISM IN Scenarios
POLITICAL HARMONY
No change in Radical change in
transportation transportation
patterns by patterns by
life style life style
INCREMENTAL ECO
DEVELOPMENT INDIVIDUAL
Scenarios
Political passivity
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

5. Scenario planning
process
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

6. Scenario planning assumes
an outside-in perspective...
External
environment
rap es
Ec and
og valu
on co
hy
om m
Transaction
em rs,
y, pan
d d to
ind ie
an l fac environment
us s
cia
trie
So
s
Internal
world
tio s
ns
Tec nnov
an
eg law
di
hn atio
d r s,
ula
an olitic
olo
gy n
P
Environment
and ecology
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

7. ...and facilitates a
search for
Visible underlying driving
F E G forces and critical
effects
uncertainties
?
D
Economy,
industries and
Technology
companies
development
X
and innovation ?
C
Politics, laws
and regulations
Environment
Driving forces and ecology
- critical
uncertainties Social factors, valuesB
Aand demography
- predetermined
elements
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

8. Scenario planning
- meeting 3 challenges
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

9. Challenge 1 - Collective blind
”spot” due to ”group think”
Uncertainty in time
Future
Prediction
Uncertainty
in issue
Possible
future
outcomes
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

10. Challenge 2 - Inaction (or scattering of
resources) due to fragmented perspectives
Uncertainty in time
Future Prediction
Prediction
Uncertainty
in issue
Prediction
Possible
future Prediction
outcomes
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010

11. Challenge 3 - balancing different groups,
processes and knowledge areas
Future ?
Solving the problems of the Solving tomorrow’s
future with today’s tools problems with
tomorrow’s tools
Context/situation
Analysts,
politicians &
leaders
Engineers
Solving today’s problems & researchers Solving today’s
with today’s tools problems with
(everybody) tomorrow’s tools
Current
Current Technologies/knowledge/tools Future
2010-06-15
© SEVS 2010