Is the window of opportunity for REDD+ closing?
COP-18, Doha, Qatar (EU Pavilion): 29 November 2012, 18:00-20:00
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions for
the Forests and Other Land Uses of Indonesia:
Complementarity of Policy Instruments,
Funding Streams and Motivation
Meine van Noordwijk
Co-authors:
Fahmuddin Agus, Sonya
Dewi & Herry Purnomo

Hope / Hype / Crash / Reality?
Expected Path-dependence?
effect
positive
neutral
negative
0. Igno- I. Initial excitement, II. Reality III. Real negotiations can start to
rance of supported by positive checks, define a net positive outcome of
issues and feedback reinforcement, disappoint- unavoidable tradeoffs (‘loose less’ –
po-tential effective ‘public re- ment, ‘loose less’, or ‘win’-‘win’?), or to
solution lations’, grading into confusion, abandon the framing and seek a new
‘hype’ ‘crash’ solution (repeating the cycle?)
Figure 1. Stages in typical ‘issue cycle’ of environmental policy

Regulate and/or reward
Σ people * influence * concern
Who will monitor
Who’ll have to pay? compliance? Litigation
Political prominence
What will it cost? Implement &
monitor
What can be done to stop,
mitigate, undo or adapt? Evaluate, re-
assess
How much and where?
Who’s to blame?
Is it a Cause-effect
problem? mechanisms
Scoping Stakeholder Negotiation Implemen- Re-eva-
analysis response tation luation
Stage of the issue cycle
Tomich et al., 2004

The REDD future
seemed bright in 2007

Nov 2007 – ahead of Bali COP:
Five challenges:
1.Scope,definitions
2.Peat outside ‘forest’
3.Rights, legality
4.Interlinkage and leakage
5.Fairness & efficiency

Fairness: the real
conservation cost
C-stocks Market Efficiency: the most
t/ha real impact
Depend on
definition
Emission
outside the
REDD scheme
Sink outside A/R
CDM scheme
Forest
Conservation Production Conversion
 Time

I. Awareness II. Readiness III. Implementation at scale
UNFCCC negotiations of rules of the game
Core
ER-performance based finance, with
some international ER additionality
reduce C footrpitns in trade
Self-regulatoory response to
identity Self-articulated
ns
We care… NAMA
sio
Knowledge, Environmental
e ci
td
awareness quality, health
en
rn m
ve Branding as basis for
market share
go
EET
Our exports are threatened…
ng
Ecological & social
Global trade and investment
i
riv
relations safeguards
dd
Rent- REDD rents compete with forest rents REDD+
mi
seeking Economic growth with acceptable
yra
elites distributional effects
lp
na
tio
Food sufficiency as prerequisite for political
va
stability in cities and supportive electorates
ti
Mo
Territorial integrity and security of the state, international
independence, domestic bounded local autonomy

1. Scope & definitions
conservation
protection ‘deforestation’
natural forest production
Agroforestry
ve
te nsi
ex integrated,
Tree plan- multifunctional
tations landscape: crops, trees,
Agriculture
inte meadows and forest
Forestry
nsiv
e patches ‘loss of forest
intensive
functions’
agriculture
Segregate Integrate
functions
Current legal, institutional Current reality
& educational paradigm

Signs of deforestation?
….are included under forest, as are
areas normally forming part of the
forest area which are temporarily
unstocked as a result of human
intervention such as harvesting or
natural causes but which are expected
to revert to forest;
[FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1]

Forest definition based Forest definition based
on X% canopy cover on institutions & intent
Non-forest without trees
Trees Forest Forest
outside with trees without
forest trees
Clearfelling/ re-
plant is accep-ted
Including e.g. as forest; no time-
agroforests, oil limit on ‘replant’
palm plantation

If we cannot define it,
we cannot save it:
forest definitions and
REDD
Forest definitions are ambiguous
so often forest loss is not officially
counted as deforestation. As well,
ground-level implications of
REDD+ will depend on the
operational definition. Application
of AFOLU accounting rules can
bypass the need for clear
definitions, reduce leakage and
promote multifunctional
landscapes in an equitable,
efficient and effective way

Stakeholder:
1. Undisturbed natural forest Rainforest foundation
2. Undisturbed + sust. logged natural forest Conservation agency
3. Closed canopy undisturbed + logged forest
4A. as 3 + agroforest Forest ecologist
4B. as 3 + timber plantations Ministry of Forestry
4C. as 3 + agroforest + timber plant’s + estate crops UNFCCC definition
4D as 4C + shrub Modis data

http://www.as

REDD_ALERT synthesis and re-analysis of 5 carbon-pool data for Jambi

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross)
deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’
to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are
included, and details very much depend
on the operational definition of ‘forest’

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross)
deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’
to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are
included, and details very much depend
on the operational definition of ‘forest’
REDD = idem, + (forest) degradation, or
the shifts to lower C-stock densities
within the forest; details very much
depend on the operational definition of
‘forest’

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross) REDD+ = idem, + restocking within and
deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’ towards ‘forest’ ; in some versions RED+
to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are will also include peatlands, regardless of
included, and details very much depend their forest status ; details still depend on
on the operational definition of ‘forest’ the operational definition of ‘forest’
REDD = idem, + (forest) degradation, or
the shifts to lower C-stock densities
within the forest; details very much
depend on the operational definition of
‘forest’

RED = Reducing emissions from (gross) REDD+ = idem, + restocking within and
deforestation: only changes from ‘forest’ towards ‘forest’ ; in some versions RED+ will
to ‘non-forest’ land cover types are also include peatlands, regardless of their
included, and details very much depend forest status ; details still depend on the
on the operational definition of ‘forest’ operational definition of ‘forest’
REDD++ = REALU = idem, + all transitions in land
REDD = idem, + (forest) degradation, or
cover that affect C storage, whether peatland
the shifts to lower C-stock densities
or mineral soil, trees-outside-forest,
within the forest; details very much
agroforest, plantations or natural forest. It
depend on the operational definition of
does not depend on the operational definition
‘forest’
of ‘forest’

“Forest transition”
as spatial pattern.
‘chronosequence’?
Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia
according to 7 tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)
20

1. Scope & definitions
conservation
protection ‘deforestation’
natural forest production
Agroforestry
This issue can be/has been resolved by nesting REDD+
e nsi
ve
e xt integrated,
within a broader land-basedmultifunctional
NAMA (REALU) framework
Tree plan-
in Indonesia’s national & regional GHG reduction plans
tations landscape: crops, trees,
Agriculture
inte meadows and forest
Forestry
nsiv
e patches ‘loss of forest
intensive
functions’
agriculture
Segregate Integrate
functions
Current legal, institutional Current reality
& educational paradigm

2. Rights & legality
• In 2012 the Indonesian constitutional court ruled in
a case initiated by local governments in Central Kali-
mantan province, that the ambiguity that the 1999
Forestry Law 41 had created in allowing either
‘designation’ or ‘gazettement’ to be the basis for
inclusion of land areas in the permanent forest es-
tate in its article 1(3), should be resolved by relying
on ‘gazettement’ only. Only 14.2 Mha (10.9%) out
of the 130.7 Mha of Kawasan Hutan (68.4% of Indo-
nesia’s land) has to date been gazetted in
complian-ce with the law => legal vacuum around
all govern-ment rules and permits for >50% of

http://ww

2. Rights & legality
• In 2012 the Indonesian constitutional court ruled in
a case initiated by local governments in Central Kali-
mantan province, that the ambiguity that the 1999
Forestry Law 41 had created in allowing either
This issue can be/has been partially resolved by nesting
REDD+ within orbroader land-based NAMA (REALU)
‘designation’ a ‘gazettement’ to be the basis for
inclusion of in Indonesia’s the permanent forest es-
framework land areas in national & regional GHG
tate in its article 1(3),regencies/provinces as major
reduction plans, with should be resolved by relying
actors; at national scale new efforts have only just started
on ‘gazettement’ only. Only 14.2 Mha (10.9%) out
of the 130.7 Mha of Kawasan Hutan (68.4% of Indo-
nesia’s land) has to date been gazetted in
complian-ce with the law => legal vacuum around
all govern-ment rules and permits for >50% of

3. Interlinkage &change
Drivers of tree cover
leakage
Low intensity swiddening Economic
maintains forest Fallow => opportunity of oil
Logging & mining agroforest palm, rubber,
concessions harvest Swiddening
coffee attracts
large trees & create intensifies,
large- & small-scale
road access fire cycle
planters
Post-logging starts
institutional Industrial
vacuum allows timber
settlers plantations
Over-capacity of
wood-based
industry => Forest tenure reform Van
demand for creates incentives for Noordwijk
et al.,
‘illegal logging’ tree planting 2011

Forest and tree cover transitions: a unifying concept
1 Choice
of Y-axis
6
Core
2 3 4 5
Temporal Spatial Institutional X-linkage of
pattern, pattern, challenge at actions in
turning point landscape

Tree cover transition
Widening: area planted < area cleared Contracting: area planted > cleared

In the 1990’s loss of
natural cover increased
the amount of ‘low C-
stock’/low economic
value land; tree (crop)
planting was 28% of the
loss of natural forest
area
After 2000 planting of
tree (crop)s equals 90%
of concurrent loss of
natural forest; the
amount of low C-
stock/low economic
value land decreases

National Agrarian and Current ABCD interaction drives
government forest laws, ‘business as usual’ development
development and emission trajectories
Local policies
government Conces-
Business plans
sionairs
and expecta-
tions on land
Labour
tenure
force
Local elites
Local norms
and rules on
Local com-
land tenure Migrant
munities Migrant norms
pioneers
Alternate ABCD interactions with Free
and expecta-
and Prior Informed Consent are needed tions on land
Migrant
for High-C-Stock Development tenure
pathways
followers
Galudra et al., submitted

Tradeoff at land use system level Opportunity cost at landcape scale
opportunity cost, $/t CO2e,
Slope indicates Emission reduction poten-
emissions per
Carbon stock, tC/Ha
tial for given C price
gain in $/ha I II
e.g. ADSB
e.g. ASB-II reports
 Cumulative emissions
reports of 2007/8
1990’s
NPV, $/Ha
Four levels of analyzing opportunity costs Dynamic land use scenario model
Agents with C stock
variation in (increasing)
resource
base, moti- III
vation, live-
lihood stra- IV Rural income  Rural income
tegies. (declining) (increasing)
interacting
with rules C stock e.g. FALLOW
& policies
Agent-based land use change model (decreasing) scenarios

3. Interlinkage &change
Drivers of tree cover
leakage
Low intensity swiddening Economic
maintains forest Fallow => opportunity of oil
Logging & mining agroforest palm, rubber,
concessions harvest Swiddening
coffee attracts
intensifies,
This issue&can be/has been resolved by nestingsmall-scale
large trees create large- & REDD+
road access fire cycle
within a broader land-based NAMA (REALU) planters framework
starts
Post-logging national & regional GHG reduction plans
in Indonesia’s
institutional Industrial
vacuum allows timber
settlers plantations
Over-capacity of
wood-based
industry => Forest tenure reform Van
demand for creates incentives for Noordwijk
et al.,
‘illegal logging’ tree planting 2011

4. Peat outside ‘forest’
Huge percentage of
emissions from LUC are
associated with
low economic benefit
Opportunity costs vary
from place to place
ADSB 2007 results for Indonesia

4. Peat outside ‘forest’
De facto REDD pilot projects have included peatland
issues regardless of international scope and
definitions; in Durban peatland restoration was
recognized as potential CDM activity
This issue can be/has been resolved by nesting REDD+
within a broader land-based NAMA (REALU) framework
in Indonesia’s national & regional GHG reduction plans

5. Fairness & efficiency
Value chain

Fairness argument:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B11kASPfYxY

Expected to be on-line by August 15
Payments for environmental services They can interfere with or comple- PES concepts
(PES), or non-provisioning ecosystem ment social norms and rights-based need to adapt.
services, target alignment of micro- approach-es at generic (land use plan- Multiple para-
economic incentives for land users with ning) and in-dividual (tenure, use digms have
meso- and macro-economic societal rights) levels, and with macro-econo- emerged within
costs and benefits of their choices mic policies influencing the drivers to the broad PES
across stakeholders and scales which individual agents respond. domain.
Forms of “co-investment in stewardship” alongside rights are the preferred entry point

Providers,
Beneficiaries,
‘Sellers’
‘Buyers’
Intermediary, Broker
MvN Fig3A

Providers, Beneficiaries,
‘Sellers’ ‘Buyers’
‘Co-investors’ ‘Co-
investors’
Intermediary, Broker
MvN Fig3B

Fairness/Transparency Efficiency/Clarity
International rules,
fund/market
International border
payment
relations
value chain
Nested baselines, certi-
fied emission reduction
Legend:
Subnational sectors/areas  private sector
Respect, Image,
Investment/
Trust/threat
Knowledge
CREDD
Additionality ~ baseline
Leakage/displacement Free and Prior
Informed Consent
Local sectors/areas  private sector of sovereign
decision makers
Monitoring C stocks &
project cycle aspects Finance: invest-
ment, payment
Local sectors/areas:
communities, households Certified Emission
Sustainable livelihood Reducing direct drivers Reduction
support of emissions

I. Awareness II. Readiness III. Implementation at scale
UNFCCC negotiations of rules of the game
Core
ER-performance based finance, with
some international ER additionality
reduce C footrpitns in trade
Self-regulatoory response to
identity Self-articulated
ns
We care… NAMA
si o
Knowledge, Environmental
eci
td
awareness quality, health
en
rn m
ve Branding as basis for
market share
go
EET
Our exports are threatened…
ing
Ecological & social
Global trade and investment
riv
relations safeguards
dd
Rent- REDD rents compete with forest rents REDD+
mi
seeking Economic growth with acceptable
y ra
elites distributional effects
lp
nao
Food sufficiency as prerequisite for political
ati
stability in cities and supportive electorates
tiv
Mo
Territorial integrity and security of the state, international
independence, domestic bounded local autonomy

Nov 2007 – ahead of Bali COP:
Issue 1,2 & 4 can Five challenges:
be/has been resolved 1.Scope,definitions
by nesting REDD+ 2.Peat outside ‘forest’
within a broader land-
3.Rights, legality
based NAMA (REALU)
framework in Indone- 4.Interlinkage and leakage
sia’s national & regional 5.Fairness & efficiency
GHG reduction plans Issue 3 & 5 have progressed in
recognition, moving beyond denial
and defensiveness, but there is a
considerable way to go

Tony La Vina – this morning at IETA/ASB/IISD event
“The stronger emission reduction commitments
needed to make REDD work through private sector
involvement in regulated markets is not going to
come from this COP, not until 2015”
“I’ve personally shifted attention and hope to a more
integrated approach that combines REDD+,
agriculture and all land-based activities”

Is the window of opportunity for REDD+ closing?
COP-18, Doha, Qatar (EU Pavilion): 29 November 2012, 18:00-20:00
Reducing
Emissions
from
Deforestation
and Vietnam
Degradation
Southern
through Cameroon Jambi,
Indonesia
Alternative Ucayali,
Peru
Landuses Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, UK
Embracing Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands
Rainforests of Georg August University of Göttingen, Germany
ICRAF, IITA, CIAT, CIFOR, ASB-partners in
the Tropics Indonesia, Vietnam, Cameroon, Peru