1. Yemen National Food Security Strategy and Directions for Future Research and Policy Support Merna Hassan & Olivier Ecker Yemen Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI-UNESCWA Conference: Food Secure Arab World—A Roadmap for Policy & Research United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia; Beirut, 6-7 February 2012
2. Yemen National Food Security Strategy: A Encouraging Collaboration between Policy and Research Merna Hassan National Food Security CommitteeMinistry of Planning and International Cooperation
3. General Overview The National Food Security Strategy (NFSS) was developed by the Government of Yemen in collaboration with IFPRI. Motivation to commission the NFSS study: a) The impacts of the 2008 food price crisis and the following global economic recession appeared to be particularly severe in Yemen. b) Yemen has been facing major domestic challenges for food security (incl. lack of job-creating growth, high oil dependence, costly fuel subsidies, high budget deficit, inefficient social transfer system, rapidly depleting oil and water resources, growing qat consumption, widespread malnutrition). Principal: MOPIC, with financial support of the EC Coordination by the inter-ministerial Food Security Committee (FSC), in consultation with international development partners Project period: Mar 2009 – Dec 2010 The NFSS was endorsed by the Ministerial Committee in Dec 2010 and adopted by the Parliament in Jan 2011.
4. Consultative Process and Rigorous Analysis: From Priority Areas to a 7-Point Action Plan Intensive dialogue between food security-related ministries (MOPIC, MOF, MOIT, MOPHP, MOAI, MOWE, MOFW), governmental agencies (SWF, SFD, CSO) and international development organizations (EC, GTZ, World Bank, WFP, UNICEF, FAO, IFAD, JICA) during regular FSC meetings Four MOPIC-IFPRI workshops (plus several technical meetings) in Sanaa to present and discuss research questions, findings, and policy implications; all attended by several national ministers Two IFPRI field trips with expert and target group interviews These consultations combined with rigorous analysis of Yemen’s food security challenges and review of existing sector strategies revealed 18 priority areas for policy action. A comprehensive and innovative model and complementary analysis helped to identify and rank seven concrete policy actions of highest priority and assess their food security impacts.
5. NFSS: Vision, Objectives, InstrumentsTHE VISION: All Yemeni people have access to sufficient and nutritiousfood at all times to live an active and healthy life—i.e. all people are foodsecure.THE OBJECTIVES against which success will be judged and progress will bemonitored are: 1. To cut food insecurity by one-third by 2015 2. To reach “moderate” food security levels by 2020—to make 90 percent of the population food secure 3. To sharply reduce child malnutrition—by at least one percentage point per annumTHE INSTRUMENTS to reach these goals are: Decisive policies Targeted investments Smart programs
6. NFSS: 7-Point Action PlanTo reach Yemen’s food security objectives a combination of individual policy reforms, investments, and programs is essential.The required actions are:1. Leverage the fuel subsidy reform to promote food security2. Improve the business climate to foster pro-food secure private investments in promising sectors3. Combine qat reduction policies with support for non-qat agricultural development4. Enforce competition among cereal importers and consider physical grain storage for emergencies5. Implement the water sector strategy decisively6. Better target public investment to the food insecure and improve service provision, especially in rural areas7. Launch high-level awareness campaigns for family planning, healthy nutrition, and women’s empowerment
7. Selected Findings of the Yemen NationalFood Security Strategy and Future Research Olivier Ecker Development Strategy and Governance Division International Food Policy Research Institute
8. The State of Food Security in Yemen Growing food import dependence Prevalence of undernourishment (% of total pop.) (food imports: >15% of total exports) Widespread undernourishment (32% = 7.5m), especially in rural areas (37%) Extremely high levels of child malnutrition (stunting: 59%) Number of undernourished people (1 dot = 500 people) How can economic growth improve food security, at which level, and by how much? Which policy reforms are suited to generate such growth? Which investments and programs are needed in addition? Source: Ecker et al. 2010. “Assessing Food Security in Yemen.” IFPRI DP 982.
9. An Integrative Approach for Food Security Analysis Source: Ecker & Breisinger. “The Food Security System.” Forthcoming 2012.
10. Macro-Micro Modeling Framework IFPRI Dynamic CGE Model Nutrition Models Economic production HH incomes Parametric regressions: Wages, rents, profits Urban/ N = f(Y, P, D)Agriculture Factor markets Rural Industry Commodity markets Production Consumption Farm/ Services Foreign trade Nonfarm Taxes Foreign markets/ Spending countries and market policies Expenditure Estimated Foreign aid Taxes and change (‘shock’) coefficients Public sector/ social policies government Public investment and Productivity/technology macro policies Foreign Private investment investment Human/physical capital Nutrition outcomes Prediction
11. Industry and Service Sector-Led Growth 6Scenario: Growth – change from baseline (% points) 5Promotion of growth in‘promising sectors’ (food 4processing, non- 3 National GDP Hydrocarbonhydrocarbon mining, 2 Agriculture Industry Servicestourism, transportation, 1communication) through 0improved business climate 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2Results: Prevalence of undernourishment – change from baseline (% points) 0 High GDP growth -2 Substantial reduction in -4 undernourishment, -6 National especially in rural areas -8 Rural farm Minor improvement in -10 Rural nonfarm Urban child nutrition -12 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Breisinger et al. 2011. “Food as the Basis for Development and Security.” IFPRI DP 1036.
12. Agricultural Policy Reform 3Scenario: Growth – change from baseline (% points)Promotion of non-qat 2agricultural productivitygrowth through investments 1(especially in coffee and 0wheat value chains) National GDP Hydrocarbon Agriculture Industry Servicesfinanced by qat taxation -1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Results: 2 Modest GDP growth Prevalence of undernourishment – change from baseline (% points) Significant reduction in 0 undernourishment, -2 especially among -4 National farmers Rural farm Rural nonfarm -6 Minor improvement in Urban child nutrition -8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Breisinger et al. 2011. “Food as the Basis for Development and Security.” IFPRI DP 1036.
13. Ways Forward: ‘Costs’ of Yemen’s Conflicts In Yemen, the Arab Awakening and other conflicts created major opportunities but have been also associated with substantial losses in economic growth and household income earnings. While ongoing studies focus only on the immediate loss in GDP and disruption of investments, we plan to analyze the impacts on development, poverty, and food security in the medium and long term. The analysis will build on the NFSS study and provide detailed data of the conflict impacts differentiated by the type of conflict and the population affected.
14. IFPRI-MOPIC Products from NFSS Research NFSS documents (Part I & II) NFSS briefs: Action Plan & Overview of Elements IFPRI Discussion Papers (982, 1036) Digital Food Security Atlas for Yemen Available online: http://www.ifpri.org/publications