The impact of megatrends on western governments

The impact of megatrends on Western governments(short version)
Frederic De Meyer
Institute for Future Insights

Agenda
What exactly is a megatrends?
How megatrends will affect Western governments?
Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)
Key questions

...in a nutshell...
One hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
An increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
A worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend
And the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends

my ‘rules of thumb’
long-lasting
amplifying
cause disruptive shift
have a global impact
... almost feel inevitable (not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby)

Megatrends on my watch list

Agenda
Key questions

Megatrends impact on Public Sector
Push Global decentralized enterprise
Governments new Partners
Technology:
Pervasive Technology
Technology:
GRIN Technologies
Demographics:
Urbanization
Environment:
Energy dependency
Demographics:
Global mobility
Demographics:
GenY
Environment:
Global Warming
Demographics:
Ageing Population
Geopolitics:
Rising power of East
Geopolitics:
Globalization 3.0
Geopolitics:
Global Grid
Geopolitics:
Market State
Crowdsourcing, open innovation, ...
Decline of the West?
Do work differently or do different work?
New investments, reduce threat
New education
Active monitoring; reduce threat
Talent gap; new wave of immigration
Efficient health care provisioning; who will take lead?
Ensure livable megacities
Who owns the data?

Agenda
Key questions

Globalization 3.0, new investors or new competitors?
Challenges to governments:
Less locally owned companies => where will profits go? Where will decision centers move?
The war for natural resources might impoverish Western countries
Declining economic weight => turning irrelevant on global scene?
Opportunities for governments:
Solution for ailing businesses (~ Volvo);
new partnerships.

Ageing population & GenY will fundamentally alter societal balances
Ageing population will put strain on labor market, how to solve talent gap for Public Sector (outsourcing, insourcing foreigners, crowdsourcing, flexible working for elderly, …)?
While GenY is in favor of working for the Public Sector, they are demanding specific working environment, are public insitutions prepared?
How to deal with brain drain of GenY moving to higher growth countries?
Making work at public sector more ‘sexy’ (GenY is aware of social role);
Introducing new business models of public service delivery.
SOURCE: Ramon Costa www.pgpsi.com

The global grid, Crowdsourcing and peer-to-peer services (desintermediation) will shift paradigms
Fan Funding makes music production more profitable (for musician, fans and company)
Peer to peer lending eating away market share of banks
How to tax and keep track of new ways of earning (and spending) money (ex crowdsourcing tasks paid through Paypal or Facebook-credits and used to spend on virtual items)?
Macro-economic impact (GDP overall might decrease, but wouldn’t be dramatic?);
New competitors/alternatives in delivering public services;
New economic dynamism, innovation triggers, increasing country attractiveness and competitiveness;
Using crowdsourcing for internal means could increase efficiency and quality of public service.

Social networks offer limitless possibilities to build reputations and offer new services
New ways of organizing society, governments become irrelevant?
New economic dynamism, innovation triggers new services developments by governments (aps)?
Reputation management, opportunity to attract new key talents.
Facebook relationships map:

Climate change and energy dependencies will require new ways of government
Might become the most crucial (if not the only) agenda point for future governments;
Balance choices of investments both internally and in the economy;
Find alternatives for energy dependency from unstable countries;
Find budgets for investments;
TIMING !
New economic impulse;
Become leader in developing, innovating and export of sustainability projects;
Innovating public services;
Cost and risk controll (energy dependency).
www.lowtechmagazine.com
www.businessinsider.com

Agenda
Key questions

how to deal with megatrends in your public service?
What is the impact of global grid on our economy? Should we fear or embrace it?
What is our position vs the Market State? Should we partner with private sector?
DO we have a roadmap to become sustainability innovation leader?
Can we improve internal efficiency with crowdsourcing?
How should we use Social Networks to increase reputation and attract top talents?
How Can we benefit from the rising middle class in the emerging countries?
Will new business models create alternatives for public services? Will we become obsolete or should we be pro-active?
Are we dependent on key skills that might become scarce in the future? How to fill the gap with GenY or ageing workers?
How should we react to increasing investments from emerging countries? Can we turn this into our benefit?
Notes:

frederic de meyer
founder
the institute for future insights
-helping you anticipate the future-
Keynote speech at the start of your strategic planning session
- or your industry event;
Eye opening workshops for internal planning purposes;
Discussions on ways to innovate for the future;
Contact:
ifi.frederic@gmail.com
(BE)+32 471 63 95 35
www.fredericdemeyer.com
twitter: @fdemeyer
get in touch on Linkedin

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The impact of megatrends on western governments

by Frederic De Meyer

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The impact of megatrends on western governments Presentation Transcript