The impact of megatrends on western governments

42,301 views
44,043 views

Published on

Assessment of how a selection of megatrends will affect Public Services in the near future. (short version)

Published in: Economy & Finance, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
42,301
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
37,871
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
71
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

The impact of megatrends on western governments

  1. 1. The impact of megatrends on Western governments(short version)<br />Frederic De Meyer<br />Institute for Future Insights<br />
  2. 2. Agenda<br />What exactly is a megatrends?<br />How megatrends will affect Western governments?<br />Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)<br />Key questions<br />
  3. 3. ...in a nutshell...<br />One hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...<br />An increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend<br />A worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend<br />And the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends <br />
  4. 4. my ‘rules of thumb’<br />long-lasting<br />amplifying <br />cause disruptive shift<br />have a global impact<br />... almost feel inevitable (not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby)<br />
  5. 5. Megatrends on my watch list<br />
  6. 6. Agenda<br />What exactly is a megatrends?<br />How megatrends will affect Western governments?<br />Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)<br />Key questions<br />
  7. 7. Megatrends impact on Public Sector<br />Push Global decentralized enterprise<br />Governments new Partners<br />Technology:<br />Pervasive Technology<br />Technology:<br />GRIN Technologies<br />Demographics:<br />Urbanization<br />Environment:<br />Energy dependency<br />Demographics:<br /> Global mobility<br />Demographics:<br /> GenY<br />Environment:<br />Global Warming<br />Demographics:<br /> Ageing Population<br />Geopolitics:<br />Rising power of East<br />Geopolitics:<br />Globalization 3.0<br />Geopolitics:<br />Global Grid<br />Geopolitics:<br />Market State<br />Crowdsourcing, open innovation, ...<br />Decline of the West?<br />Do work differently or do different work?<br />New investments, reduce threat<br />New education<br />Active monitoring; reduce threat<br />Talent gap; new wave of immigration<br />Efficient health care provisioning; who will take lead?<br />Ensure livable megacities<br />Who owns the data?<br />
  8. 8. Agenda<br />What exactly is a megatrends?<br />How megatrends will affect Western governments?<br />Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)<br />Key questions<br />
  9. 9. Globalization 3.0, new investors or new competitors?<br />Challenges to governments:<br /><ul><li> Less locally owned companies => where will profits go? Where will decision centers move?
  10. 10. The war for natural resources might impoverish Western countries
  11. 11. Declining economic weight => turning irrelevant on global scene?</li></ul>Opportunities for governments:<br /><ul><li>Solution for ailing businesses (~ Volvo);
  12. 12. new partnerships.</li></li></ul><li>Ageing population & GenY will fundamentally alter societal balances<br />Challenges to governments:<br /><ul><li> Ageing population will put strain on labor market, how to solve talent gap for Public Sector (outsourcing, insourcing foreigners, crowdsourcing, flexible working for elderly, …)?
  13. 13. While GenY is in favor of working for the Public Sector, they are demanding specific working environment, are public insitutions prepared?
  14. 14. How to deal with brain drain of GenY moving to higher growth countries?</li></ul>Opportunities for governments:<br /><ul><li>Making work at public sector more ‘sexy’ (GenY is aware of social role);
  15. 15. Introducing new business models of public service delivery.</li></ul>SOURCE: Ramon Costa www.pgpsi.com<br />
  16. 16. The global grid, Crowdsourcing and peer-to-peer services (desintermediation) will shift paradigms <br />Fan Funding makes music production more profitable (for musician, fans and company)<br />Peer to peer lending eating away market share of banks<br />Challenges to governments:<br /><ul><li> How to tax and keep track of new ways of earning (and spending) money (ex crowdsourcing tasks paid through Paypal or Facebook-credits and used to spend on virtual items)?
  17. 17. Macro-economic impact (GDP overall might decrease, but wouldn’t be dramatic?);
  18. 18. New competitors/alternatives in delivering public services;</li></ul>Opportunities for governments:<br /><ul><li>New economic dynamism, innovation triggers, increasing country attractiveness and competitiveness;
  19. 19. Using crowdsourcing for internal means could increase efficiency and quality of public service.</li></li></ul><li>Social networks offer limitless possibilities to build reputations and offer new services<br />Challenges to governments:<br /><ul><li> New ways of organizing society, governments become irrelevant?</li></ul>Opportunities for governments:<br /><ul><li>New economic dynamism, innovation triggers new services developments by governments (aps)?
  20. 20. Reputation management, opportunity to attract new key talents.</li></ul>Facebook relationships map:<br />
  21. 21. Climate change and energy dependencies will require new ways of government<br />Challenges to governments:<br /><ul><li> Might become the most crucial (if not the only) agenda point for future governments;
  22. 22. Balance choices of investments both internally and in the economy;
  23. 23. Find alternatives for energy dependency from unstable countries;
  24. 24. Find budgets for investments;
  25. 25. TIMING !</li></ul>Opportunities for governments:<br /><ul><li>New economic impulse;
  26. 26. Become leader in developing, innovating and export of sustainability projects;
  27. 27. Innovating public services;
  28. 28. Cost and risk controll (energy dependency).</li></ul>www.lowtechmagazine.com<br />www.businessinsider.com<br />
  29. 29. Agenda<br />What exactly is a megatrends?<br />How megatrends will affect Western governments?<br />Challenges and opportunities for Western governments (selection of trends)<br />Key questions<br />
  30. 30. how to deal with megatrends in your public service?<br />What is the impact of global grid on our economy? Should we fear or embrace it?<br />What is our position vs the Market State? Should we partner with private sector?<br />DO we have a roadmap to become sustainability innovation leader?<br />Can we improve internal efficiency with crowdsourcing?<br />How should we use Social Networks to increase reputation and attract top talents?<br />How Can we benefit from the rising middle class in the emerging countries?<br />Will new business models create alternatives for public services? Will we become obsolete or should we be pro-active?<br />Are we dependent on key skills that might become scarce in the future? How to fill the gap with GenY or ageing workers?<br />How should we react to increasing investments from emerging countries? Can we turn this into our benefit?<br />Notes:<br />
  31. 31. frederic de meyer<br />founder<br />the institute for future insights<br />-helping you anticipate the future-<br />Keynote speech at the start of your strategic planning session<br /> - or your industry event;<br />Eye opening workshops for internal planning purposes;<br />Discussions on ways to innovate for the future;<br />Contact:<br />ifi.frederic@gmail.com<br />(BE)+32 471 63 95 35<br />www.fredericdemeyer.com<br />twitter: @fdemeyer<br />get in touch on Linkedin<br />

×