Soy has become a critical raw material for animal feed businesses in the recent times and is requiring all attention of business managers. India's animal feed and aquaculture business is expanding at a rapid pace and soy meal is the only dependable, consistent source of protein that the industry relies upon. This presentation shows what opportunities are in store in India for business based on soy meal.

1. 1
SOY PROPHECY FOR
ANIMAL FEEDS
Dr. P E Vijay Anand
Director
India – Feed / Meal Program

2. 2
GLOBAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION BY
COUNTRY; 2012/13 MARKETING YEAR
Brazil
31%
United States
31%
Argentina
21%
China
5%
India
4%
Paraguay
3%
Canada
2%
Other
3%
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
83% of
world soy
rests with
three
countries

3. 3
SOYBEANS – WORLD V/S INDIA
Country 2011 2012 2013 (F) Change
Argentina 49.000 40.500 48.500 + 8.000
Brazil 75.500 65.500 81.200 + 15.700
China 15.100 14.480 12.600 -1.880
India 9.800 11.000 11.500 + 0.500
Paraguay 7.128 4.357 7.750 + 3.393
U.S. 90.605 84.192 82.055 - 2.137
Total 247.133 220.022 243.355 + 23.576
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
World will add
about 23 MMT
of additional
beans

4. 4
OIL SEED S & D -WORLD
Supply Demand Gap (Million Tonnes)
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Production 299 322 339 348 356 362 368
Consumption 314 320 332 343 353 362 369
Trade 104 107 113 119 123 126 129
Stocks 28 30 33 41 44 44 43
Y to Y Change -15 +2 +7 +5 +2 - -1
In the next four years we have supply ease/ but we will remain tight after 2016
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

5. 5
SOYBEAN S & D -WORLD
Supply Demand Gap (Million Tonnes)
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Production 238 264 277 284 291 296 301
Consumption 251 261 271 281 289 296 302
Trade 91 96 101 107 110 113 115
Stocks 23 26 32 36 38 38 37
Y to Y Change -13 +3 +6 +4 +2 - -1
79% 81.79Dependency on soy as a protein
source will increase
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

6. 6
GLOBAL SOY MEAL CONSUMPTION
116.2
123.7
130.5 128.5
136.7
145.5
152.3
156.5 152.7
161.3
170.3
177.2
182.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MMT
In the last
five years the
global
consumption
of soy meal
has
increased by
29.50 MMT
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
Source: USDA S&D April 2013

7. 7
WHAT CUES DOES THE
DOMESTIC ANIMAL
INDUSTRY HOLD FOR SOY
MEAL IN FUTURE?
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

8. 8
WE BELIEVE THAT USSEC’S
TEAM STRENGTH IN INDIA IS
ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DOMESTIC MARKET FOR SOY
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

9. 9
CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN THE
ASIA SUBCONTINENT
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Change
India 1,975 2,570 2,900 3,330 3,700 1,725
BG 395 458 503 514 524 129
PK 253 266 283 392 400 147
SL 102 107 150 158 160 58
NE 56 65 70 83 100 44
2103
In five years
time these
countries
have
increased
consumption
by 2.00 MMT
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
Source: USDA S&D April 2013
80%

10. 10
ASIA SUBCONTINENT IMPORTS
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Change
India 8 7 7 6 6 -2
BG 275 417 554 375 375 100
PK 273 246 275 434 350 77
SL 105 115 160 165 168 63
NE 56 65 70 83 100 44
709 843 1059 1057 993 284
Close to 1
MMT is
imported by
neighbors,
largely from
India; their
consumption
is growing
too
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
Source: USDA S&D April 2013

11. 11
SBM DEMAND - IRAN V/S INDIA
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Change
India 1,975 2,570 2,900 3,330 3,700 1,725
USSEC 3,020 3,430 3,800 4,100 4,300 1,280
Iran 2,236 2,467 2,550 2,500 2, 475 239
Iran increased
utilization by
239 TMT in five
years which is
less than one
year’s increase
in India
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
Source: USDA S&D April 2013

12. 12
ASC IMPORTS + INDIA UTILIZATION
3.7 MMT
0.350 0.100
0.375
0.168
PK NE
BG
IN
CE
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
Derived and reconstructed by USSEC from USDA S&D April 2013
Satellite countries import close
to 1 MMT
India uses 3.7 MMT
Total meal conumed in ASC =
4.7 MMT
5.52 MMT of soybeans required
for serving ASC (50% approx)

13. 13
DEMAND IN ASC V/S WORLD
2008-09 2012-13 % Change
World 152.7 182.2 19 %
Sub continent 2.68 4.88 82 %
Change due to
demand for
SBM in the
Indian
subcontinent
is 4times
higher than
world change
Constructed and compared by USSEC from USDA S&D April 2013
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

14. 14
WE SHOULD NOT BE IN A POSITION OF
BUILDING A CASTLE ON SAND
We have built the
poultry industry of
50,000 Cr – Nice to
look at - But we
have an ocean of
uncertainties
behind and under
it – are we paying
heed?
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

15. 15
INFRASTRUCTURE
Quality and Scale
of investments
on Feed milling,
Breeding Farms,
hatcheries and
soy production
are heavily
becoming
modernized
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

16. 16
HOW MUCH FEED WILL INDIA
NEED BY 2015?
Year Feed (MMT)
Base line 2009 21.00
2010 22.47
2011 24.09
2012 25.77
2013 27.57
2014 29.49
2015 31.55
Assumption
Broiler- 12%
Layer- 7%
Dairy- 4%
Fish- 5%
Av=7%
@ industry
growth rates
50% growth
Analysis
through
industry
growth
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

17. 17
SOYBEAN FACTOR FOR CHICKEN
AND EGGS
Soy Inclusion Soy usage in
grams
20% 680
22% 748
25% 850
Soy Inclusion Soy usage in
grams
7% 8.50
10% 12.20
15% 18.30
BROILER – 3.4 kg feed/bird (2 kg) LAYER – 2.2 kg feed/1 kg eggs
(=18 eggs/kg)
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

18. 18
ANOTHER APPROACH TO SOY
MEAL CONSUMPTION
One additional egg
eaten in India
=160,000 MT feed
and 16,000 MT SBM
100 g additional
chicken eaten in India
=300,000 MT feed
and 75,000 MT SBM
The 1.2 billion
+ population
is the play
ground for
any business
in India
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

19. 19
HOW MUCH FEED WILL INDIA NEED?
Year Placement
broiler
Placement
layer
Feed
poultry
(MMT)
Feed
(MMT)
from
previous
slide
2011 2184 188.60 17.00 24.09
2012 2704 203.73 20.53 25.77
2013 3055 215.96 23.05 27.57
2014 3452 228.91 25.31 29.49
2015 3901 242.65 27.81 31.55
2016 4408 257.21 30.64 33.75
Analysis through poultry
placements;
Both approaches give
almost the similar number
for feed quantity
At 16% average soy
inclusion for broiler
and layer feed
(25+7/2) soy
requirement is 4.90
MT on 30.64
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

20. 20
DOMESTIC SOY MEAL BUSINESS
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
FAS 1.95 2.57 2.90 3.33 3.70
ASA-IM 3.02 3.43 3.80 4.10 4.30
Total increment in 5-year period = 1.75 MMT
Average increment per year=350,000 MT
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

21. 21
SBM EXPORTS FROM INDIA (USDA)
Exports on an
average have
been 4 MMT
over the last five
years.
Domestic
consumption is
showing a steady
increase
2.36
2.57
1.51
3.68
2.24
4.27
4.14
5.29
3.81
3.12
4.80
4.60
4.35
1.12 1.15 1.19
0.70
1.37 1.35
1.02
1.45
1.98
2.57
2.90
3.35
3.80
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MMT
Exports Consumption
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
Source: USDA

22. 22
INDIA’S SOY MEAL CONSUMPTION
2006/07 TO 2012/13
Trends to
2022/23
indicates that
India will
consume over
8 MMT in a
decade’s time
Source: USDA
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

23. 23
FORECASTING SBM USE BY THE
BROILER INDUSTRY
Year Broiler feed
(MMT)
SBM
@25%
SBM
@ 28%
2009 7.00 1.75 1.96
2010 7.08 1.77 1.98
2011 7.93 1.98 2.22
2012 8.88 2.22 2.48
2013 9.94 2.48 2.78
2014 11.13 2.78 3.11
2015 12.76 3.19 3.57
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

24. 24
NEW SOY MEAL BUSINESS
CG-Nil
OR- Nil
BH(1) 41/9
MP-Nil
PB- Nil
HR(1) 48/10
MH(1) 72/15
KA (5) 353/78
KL(0) Nil
AP(7) 336/91
WB(1) 48/10
JH(1) 48/10
RJ (1) 48/10
TN(4)
25
Feed capacity 1.16 MMT
SBM potential 0.270 MMT
Poultry 17
Aqua 8
2012
UP(2) 124/27
AS(1) 48/10
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

25. 25
NEW SOY MEAL BUSINESS
CG-Nil
OR- Nil
BH(2) 72/15
MP-Nil
PB(1) 48/10
HR(3)144/31
MH(1) 60/15
KA (0) Nil
KL(0) Nil
AP(6) 444/123
WB(2) 108/28
JH - Nil
RJ (2) 96/21
TN(1)
21
Feed capacity 1.11 MMT
SBM potential 0.274 MMT
Poultry 13
Aqua 8
2013
UP(2) 144/31
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

26. 26
DEMAND FOR DOMESTIC SOY MEAL IS
EVER INCREASING FROM A NEW BUSINESS
PERSPECTIVE
Year Number of new
businesses
New feed
milling capacity
New soybean
requirement
2009 39 2.5 0.500
2010 29 1.08 0.235
2011 29 1.04 0.254
2012 25 1.16 0.270
2013 21 1.11 0.274
TOTALS 143 6.89 MMT 1.53 MMT
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

27. 27
USSEC’S DOMESTIC SBM DATA ANALYSIS
APPROACH
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds
Domestic
soy use
Corn use
(0.35)
USDA
domestic
consumption
Total broiler
meat
production
Total egg
production
Full fat
soybean
use
Aquaculture
use
Total feed
milling
Placements
New
business/
new use
The
assessments we
wish to have in
future
1)E/W/N/S/C
2)State wise

28. 28
MEETING DOMESTIC DEMAND
S.No Poultry
Firm
Crushing
Capacity (TPD)
1 A 1000
2 B 600
3 C 400
4 D 500
5 E 500
6 F 500
7 G 500
8 H 500
TOTAL
INSTALLED
4500
4500 X 20 days = 90,000 MT
90,000 MT X 8 months = 720,000
Animal feed investments into crush
( backward integrations) for
meeting own demand, ensuring
RM security and meeting quality
standards
Soy Prophecy for
Animal feeds

29. 29
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION
Adding Value to Soy