Effectuation 2maandag 29 oktober 12
Effectuation                   • 4 principes                    • non predictive control                    • “bird in han...
Verwachtingen                   • jullie gebruiken het denkproces van                        effectuation om verder te kom...
Little by little, wean yourself. This is the gist of what I have to say.                        From an embryo, whose nour...
Toegepast?                   • tijdens de bijeenkomsten heb ik al eea                        gezien...                   •...
Grue en Bleen                                                   CONTROL IN VENTURE ENVIRONMENTS                         HI...
maandag 29 oktober 12
De andere principes                   • “crazy quilt”                   • “lemonade”maandag 29 oktober 12
Crazy Quiltmaandag 29 oktober 12
Absolut-Ice hotelmaandag 29 oktober 12
maandag 29 oktober 12
Lemonademaandag 29 oktober 12
maandag 29 oktober 12
Surprise            • Avoid Surprises.                                      6maandag 29 oktober 12
Surprise            • Avoid Surprises.            • Leverage Surprises.              Surprises can present new opportuniti...
maandag 29 oktober 12
THE CONTINGENCY PATH TO                                NOVEL OUTCOMES                                        CONTINGENCIES...
•    THE UNCERTAINTY PARADOX                                                                                 –   How can y...
Het procesmaandag 29 oktober 12
Attitude Toward Others                        Competition. Set up transactional                         relationships with...
Attitude Toward Others                        Competition. Set up transactional                         relationships with...
Working(with(inputs(      Working(with(inputs(                                          outside(your(control(     within(y...
Affordable loss                   • vs. “real options”                   • vs. min-maxmaandag 29 oktober 12
maandag 29 oktober 12
Ice Hotel                   • probeer de causale principes toe te passenmaandag 29 oktober 12
maandag 29 oktober 12
maandag 29 oktober 12
DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO RISK BETWEEN ENTREPRENEURS AND BANKERS                                  Entrepreneurs            ...
EFFECTUATION IN ACTION                                      EXPANDING CYCLE OF RESOURCES                                  ...
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Effectuation 02

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Effectuation 02

  1. 1. Effectuation 2maandag 29 oktober 12
  2. 2. Effectuation • 4 principes • non predictive control • “bird in hand” • “crazy quilt” • “lemonade” • 1 processmaandag 29 oktober 12
  3. 3. Verwachtingen • jullie gebruiken het denkproces van effectuation om verder te komen waar planning niet mogelijk ismaandag 29 oktober 12
  4. 4. Little by little, wean yourself. This is the gist of what I have to say. From an embryo, whose nourishment comes in the blood, move to an infant drinking milk, to a child on solid food, to a searcher after wisdom, to a hunter of more invisible game. Think how it is to have a conversation with an embryo.You might say, "The world outside is vast and intricate. There are wheatfields and mountain passes, and orchards in bloom. At night there are millions of galaxies, and in sunlight the beauty of friends dancing at a wedding." You ask the embryo why he, or she, stays cooped up in the dark with eyes closed. Listen to the answer. There is no "other world." I only know what Ive experienced.You must be hallucinating.maandag 29 oktober 12
  5. 5. Toegepast? • tijdens de bijeenkomsten heb ik al eea gezien... • jullie?maandag 29 oktober 12
  6. 6. Grue en Bleen CONTROL IN VENTURE ENVIRONMENTS HIGH Planning Market Power EMPHASIS ON PREDICTION PREDICTION MONOPOLY Planned Action Overlooked Action Adaptation Effectuation RISK UNCERTAINTY Inaction: Creative Action Learned Helplessness LOW LOW EMPHASIS ON CONTROL HIGHmaandag 29 oktober 12
  7. 7. maandag 29 oktober 12
  8. 8. De andere principes • “crazy quilt” • “lemonade”maandag 29 oktober 12
  9. 9. Crazy Quiltmaandag 29 oktober 12
  10. 10. Absolut-Ice hotelmaandag 29 oktober 12
  11. 11. maandag 29 oktober 12
  12. 12. Lemonademaandag 29 oktober 12
  13. 13. maandag 29 oktober 12
  14. 14. Surprise • Avoid Surprises. 6maandag 29 oktober 12
  15. 15. Surprise • Avoid Surprises. • Leverage Surprises. Surprises can present new opportunities. 6maandag 29 oktober 12
  16. 16. maandag 29 oktober 12
  17. 17. THE CONTINGENCY PATH TO NOVEL OUTCOMES CONTINGENCIES Information Events People CHANGE YOUR MEANS What you know Who you are Who you know WHICH GIVES YOU NEW MEANS TO LEVERAGE by asking yourself "Now what can I do with my revised means?" WHICH MAY GENERATE NOVEL OUTCOMES i.e. new venture directionsmaandag 29 oktober 12
  18. 18. •  THE UNCERTAINTY PARADOX –  How can you control a future you cannot predict? How much an individual s intervention makes a difference –  You create it •  THE CERTAINTY PARADOX –  How can you create a future in an environment mostly outside your control? –  You co-create it with other stakeholders CONTINGENCY RELATIONSHIP •  THE EQUITY PARADOX –  How do you bring other people on board to create a non-existent pie? –  You let them self-select for a piece of it •  THE AUTONOMY PARADOX –  How do you share the pie without losing control of it? –  You understand that ownership is not control; ownership is about the meta-rules •  THE PERSISTENCE PARADOX –  What do you do when things go wrong? –  You persist, but pre-commit when to give up •  THE PERFORMANCE PARADOX –  You have built a great organization, a market that s maturing and becoming predictable –  Voila, you now have little control over it! [control shifts to prediction].maandag 29 oktober 12
  19. 19. Het procesmaandag 29 oktober 12
  20. 20. Attitude Toward Others Competition. Set up transactional relationships with customers and suppliers. 5maandag 29 oktober 12
  21. 21. Attitude Toward Others Competition. Set up transactional relationships with customers and suppliers. Partnership. Build your “future” together with customers, suppliers and even prospective competitors. 5maandag 29 oktober 12
  22. 22. Working(with(inputs( Working(with(inputs( outside(your(control( within(your(control( Low%impetus%to%act% Compelling%impetus%to%act% Outcomes(assumed(to(be( Causal(=(( Causal(=(( within(your(control( Need(to(chase(resources( Predicted(Outcomes( Effectual(=(( Effectual(=(( Self>selected(stakeholders( Novel(Outcomes( Causal(=(( Plan(and(make(calculated(bets( Outcomes(assumed(to(be( outside(your(control( Effectual(=(( Be(open(to(changing(goals( Inac3on% Learned%Helplessness% High%impetus%to%act%maandag 29 oktober 12
  23. 23. Affordable loss • vs. “real options” • vs. min-maxmaandag 29 oktober 12
  24. 24. maandag 29 oktober 12
  25. 25. Ice Hotel • probeer de causale principes toe te passenmaandag 29 oktober 12
  26. 26. maandag 29 oktober 12
  27. 27. maandag 29 oktober 12
  28. 28. DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO RISK BETWEEN ENTREPRENEURS AND BANKERS Entrepreneurs Bankers Step 1 Pick a target return Risk Risk Step 2 High High Push creatively to increase return Step 1 Step 2 Pick a comfortable Try to reduce risk level of risk through insurance, etc. Low Low Return Return Low High Low High For a given level of risk, For a given level of return, entrepreneurs feel they bankers feel they can can expand the problem space reduce the problem space and and increase returns decrease risk.maandag 29 oktober 12
  29. 29. EFFECTUATION IN ACTION EXPANDING CYCLE OF RESOURCES MEANS NEW MEANS MEANS GOALS INTERACT STAKEHOLDER CHANGES WHO I AM WHAT CAN WITH PEOPLE COMMITMENTS NEW IN THE WHAT I KNOW I DO? I KNOW GOALS ENVIRONMENT WHO I KNOW NO COMMITMENT CONSTRAINTS DEAD END OPPORTUNITY ON HOLD CONVERGING CYCLE OF CONSTRAINTS ON GOAL NEW FIRMS, NEW PRODUCTS OR NEW MARKETSmaandag 29 oktober 12
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