Effectuation • 4 principes • non predictive control • “bird in hand” • “crazy quilt” • “lemonade” • 1 processmaandag 29 oktober 12
Verwachtingen • jullie gebruiken het denkproces van effectuation om verder te komen waar planning niet mogelijk ismaandag 29 oktober 12
Little by little, wean yourself. This is the gist of what I have to say. From an embryo, whose nourishment comes in the blood, move to an infant drinking milk, to a child on solid food, to a searcher after wisdom, to a hunter of more invisible game. Think how it is to have a conversation with an embryo.You might say, "The world outside is vast and intricate. There are wheatﬁelds and mountain passes, and orchards in bloom. At night there are millions of galaxies, and in sunlight the beauty of friends dancing at a wedding." You ask the embryo why he, or she, stays cooped up in the dark with eyes closed. Listen to the answer. There is no "other world." I only know what Ive experienced.You must be hallucinating.maandag 29 oktober 12
Toegepast? • tijdens de bijeenkomsten heb ik al eea gezien... • jullie?maandag 29 oktober 12
Grue en Bleen CONTROL IN VENTURE ENVIRONMENTS HIGH Planning Market Power EMPHASIS ON PREDICTION PREDICTION MONOPOLY Planned Action Overlooked Action Adaptation Effectuation RISK UNCERTAINTY Inaction: Creative Action Learned Helplessness LOW LOW EMPHASIS ON CONTROL HIGHmaandag 29 oktober 12
THE CONTINGENCY PATH TO NOVEL OUTCOMES CONTINGENCIES Information Events People CHANGE YOUR MEANS What you know Who you are Who you know WHICH GIVES YOU NEW MEANS TO LEVERAGE by asking yourself "Now what can I do with my revised means?" WHICH MAY GENERATE NOVEL OUTCOMES i.e. new venture directionsmaandag 29 oktober 12
• THE UNCERTAINTY PARADOX – How can you control a future you cannot predict? How much an individual s intervention makes a difference – You create it • THE CERTAINTY PARADOX – How can you create a future in an environment mostly outside your control? – You co-create it with other stakeholders CONTINGENCY RELATIONSHIP • THE EQUITY PARADOX – How do you bring other people on board to create a non-existent pie? – You let them self-select for a piece of it • THE AUTONOMY PARADOX – How do you share the pie without losing control of it? – You understand that ownership is not control; ownership is about the meta-rules • THE PERSISTENCE PARADOX – What do you do when things go wrong? – You persist, but pre-commit when to give up • THE PERFORMANCE PARADOX – You have built a great organization, a market that s maturing and becoming predictable – Voila, you now have little control over it! [control shifts to prediction].maandag 29 oktober 12
Attitude Toward Others Competition. Set up transactional relationships with customers and suppliers. 5maandag 29 oktober 12
Attitude Toward Others Competition. Set up transactional relationships with customers and suppliers. Partnership. Build your “future” together with customers, suppliers and even prospective competitors. 5maandag 29 oktober 12
DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO RISK BETWEEN ENTREPRENEURS AND BANKERS Entrepreneurs Bankers Step 1 Pick a target return Risk Risk Step 2 High High Push creatively to increase return Step 1 Step 2 Pick a comfortable Try to reduce risk level of risk through insurance, etc. Low Low Return Return Low High Low High For a given level of risk, For a given level of return, entrepreneurs feel they bankers feel they can can expand the problem space reduce the problem space and and increase returns decrease risk.maandag 29 oktober 12
EFFECTUATION IN ACTION EXPANDING CYCLE OF RESOURCES MEANS NEW MEANS MEANS GOALS INTERACT STAKEHOLDER CHANGES WHO I AM WHAT CAN WITH PEOPLE COMMITMENTS NEW IN THE WHAT I KNOW I DO? I KNOW GOALS ENVIRONMENT WHO I KNOW NO COMMITMENT CONSTRAINTS DEAD END OPPORTUNITY ON HOLD CONVERGING CYCLE OF CONSTRAINTS ON GOAL NEW FIRMS, NEW PRODUCTS OR NEW MARKETSmaandag 29 oktober 12
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