2. Effectuation
• 4 principes
• non predictive control
• “bird in hand”
• “crazy quilt”
• “lemonade”
• 1 process
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3. Verwachtingen
• jullie gebruiken het denkproces van
effectuation om verder te komen waar
planning niet mogelijk is
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4. Little by little, wean yourself. This is the gist of what I have to say.
From an embryo, whose nourishment comes in the blood, move to an infant
drinking milk, to a child on solid food, to a searcher after wisdom, to a hunter
of more invisible game.
Think how it is to have a conversation with an embryo.You might say, "The
world outside is vast and intricate. There are wheatfields and mountain passes,
and orchards in bloom. At night there are millions of galaxies, and in sunlight
the beauty of friends dancing at a wedding."
You ask the embryo why he, or she, stays cooped up in the dark with eyes
closed. Listen to the answer.
There is no "other world." I only know what I've experienced.You must be
hallucinating.
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5. Toegepast?
• tijdens de bijeenkomsten heb ik al eea
gezien...
• jullie?
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6. Grue en Bleen
CONTROL IN VENTURE ENVIRONMENTS
HIGH
Planning Market Power
EMPHASIS ON PREDICTION
PREDICTION MONOPOLY
Planned Action Overlooked Action
Adaptation Effectuation
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
Inaction:
Creative Action
Learned Helplessness
LOW
LOW EMPHASIS ON CONTROL HIGH
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17. THE CONTINGENCY PATH TO
NOVEL OUTCOMES
CONTINGENCIES
Information Events
People
CHANGE YOUR MEANS
What you know Who you are
Who you know
WHICH GIVES YOU
NEW MEANS TO LEVERAGE
by asking yourself
"Now what can I do with my revised
means?"
WHICH MAY GENERATE
NOVEL OUTCOMES
i.e. new venture directions
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18. • THE UNCERTAINTY PARADOX
– How can you control a future you cannot predict?
How much an individual s intervention makes a difference – You create it
• THE CERTAINTY PARADOX
– How can you create a future in an environment mostly outside your control?
– You co-create it with other stakeholders
CONTINGENCY RELATIONSHIP
• THE EQUITY PARADOX
– How do you bring other people on board to create a non-existent pie?
– You let them self-select for a piece of it
• THE AUTONOMY PARADOX
– How do you share the pie without losing control of it?
– You understand that ownership is not control; ownership is about the meta-rules
• THE PERSISTENCE PARADOX
– What do you do when things go wrong?
– You persist, but pre-commit when to give up
• THE PERFORMANCE PARADOX
– You have built a great organization, a market that s maturing and becoming predictable
– Voila, you now have little control over it! [control shifts to prediction].
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20. Attitude Toward Others
Competition. Set up transactional
relationships with customers and
suppliers.
5
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21. Attitude Toward Others
Competition. Set up transactional
relationships with customers and
suppliers.
Partnership. Build your “future” together with customers,
suppliers and even prospective competitors.
5
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28. DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO RISK BETWEEN ENTREPRENEURS AND BANKERS
Entrepreneurs Bankers Step 1
Pick a target return
Risk Risk
Step 2
High High
Push creatively
to increase return
Step 1 Step 2
Pick a comfortable Try to reduce risk
level of risk through insurance, etc.
Low Low
Return Return
Low High Low High
For a given level of risk, For a given level of return,
entrepreneurs feel they bankers feel they can
can expand the problem space reduce the problem space and
and increase returns decrease risk.
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29. EFFECTUATION IN ACTION
EXPANDING CYCLE OF RESOURCES
MEANS
NEW
MEANS
MEANS GOALS INTERACT STAKEHOLDER CHANGES
WHO I AM WHAT CAN WITH PEOPLE COMMITMENTS NEW IN THE
WHAT I KNOW I DO? I KNOW GOALS ENVIRONMENT
WHO I KNOW
NO COMMITMENT CONSTRAINTS
DEAD END
OPPORTUNITY
ON HOLD
CONVERGING CYCLE OF CONSTRAINTS ON GOAL
NEW FIRMS, NEW PRODUCTS OR NEW MARKETS
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