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Startup Metrics for Pirates  2.0 Lean Startup SXSW Austin, TX – March 2011   #LeanSxsw Dave McClure  @DaveMcClure http://w...
# TigerBlood 4 Startups # WINNING
[ Bullets  Kill   ]
Topics <ul><li>Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates” </li></ul><ul><li>Thoughts on Sequencing AARRR </li></ul><ul>...
Disclaimers <ul><li>I’m not really a “metrics” guy </li></ul><ul><li>This is mostly high-concept  bullshit </li></ul><ul><...
Key Concepts (Acronyms) <ul><li>MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) </li></ul><ul><li>PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alte...
[ Important  Shit  ]
Read  Geoffrey Miller Sex  +  Evolution  +  Consumer Mktg  =  Awesome Sauce
Other Great  Shit. Psychology  +  Comics
[Startup Metrics 4  Pirates ]
Just Gimme the  GOOD  Metrics. Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...? <ul><li>Q: Which of these is best?  How do you know? ...
Startup Metrics for Pirates <ul><li>A cquisition:   users come to site from various  channels </li></ul><ul><li>A ctivatio...
AARRR! : 5-Step Startup Metrics Model Website.com R evenue $$$ Biz Dev Ads, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce A CQUISITIO...
One Step at a Time. <ul><ul><li>Make a Good Product : Activation & Retention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Market the Product...
[ Constructing  MVP  ]
Role: Founder / CEO <ul><li>Q: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics?  Why ? </li></ul><ul><li>A: Focus on  Critical Few Acti...
What is Minimum Viable Product? <ul><li>MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on  CUSTOMER(s) FI...
Discover  Meaning Why Should Users Give a  SHIT  About You? Kathy Sierra: “ Creating Passionate Users”
Discover Meaning Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action <ul><li>Top 10 - 100 words </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Your Brand / Products <...
KILL  A FEATURE. Something  Sucks . Find It.  KILL   It. <ul><li>STOP  ADDING FEATURES. </li></ul><ul><li>Find the ONE THI...
Optimize  4  Happiness  (both User + Business) <ul><li>Define  States of User + Business Value </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritiz...
Example Conversion Metrics (note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary) Stage Conversion Status Conv.  % Est. Value (*not*...
[ Getting 2  PMF  ]
Role: Product / Eng / Design <ul><li>Q: What Features to Build?  Why?  When are you “Done”? </li></ul><ul><li>A:  Easy-to-...
What is Product/Market Fit? <ul><li>PMF = F(Customer, Solution,  Alternatives* ) </li></ul><ul><li>not a single event; can...
Better  or   Different .   Funny! Shocking  !!! Accepted Not  Funny.
[ Testing 4  AUX  ]
How 2 Tell if Design is Good? <ul><li>AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX,  Metric4Success ) </li></ul><ul><li>Define Metrics, Mea...
[ Metrics 4  ACQ  ]
Role: Marketing / Sales <ul><li>Q: What channels?  Which users?  Why? </li></ul><ul><li>A: High  Volume  (#), Low  Cost  (...
M AARRR keting Plan <ul><li>Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 Important Factor...
Example Marketing Channels <ul><li>PR </li></ul><ul><li>Contest </li></ul><ul><li>Biz Dev </li></ul><ul><li>Direct Marketi...
[ What is  WINNING?  ]
Choose Yer # WIN NING Metrics <ul><li>WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Revenue) </li></ul><ul><li>after MVP functional use, severa...
[ The Lean  Investor  ]
Startup 2.0:  “Lean Investor” Model <ul><li>Method : Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative developmen...
Investment #1: Incubate (“Product”) <ul><li>Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1-3 founders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$25K-$...
Investment #2: Seed (“Market”) <ul><li>Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2-5 person team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$100K-$1...
Investment #3: Venture (“Revenue”) <ul><li>Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5-10 person team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$1M...
[ Don’t  Pitch  Me, Bro. ] Seriously : Don’t.  Fucking .  Pitch Me. (and  don’t email me  either, cuz i won’t read it)
Don’t Pitch Me, Bro. <ul><li>1 st : Read my stuff (blogs, decks, tweets). </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd : Get a referral from som...
Links & Resources <ul><li>Additional References: </li></ul><ul><li>Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion  Robert Cialdin...
Appendix
Startup Metrics Activation
Website.com <ul><li>Activation Criteria: </li></ul><ul><li>10-30+ seconds </li></ul><ul><li>2-3+ page views </li></ul><ul>...
Activation What do users do on their first visit? <ul><li>Example Activation Goals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Click on somethin...
Activation What do users do on their first visit? <ul><li>Key Metrics to Track </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pages per visit </li>...
Activation <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crazy Egg (Visual Click Mapping) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://crazyegg...
Startup Metrics Retention
Website.com <ul><li>Automated emails: </li></ul><ul><li>lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d  </li></ul><ul><li>status / “best ...
<ul><li>Cohort Analysis: </li></ul><ul><li>Distrib of Visits over Time </li></ul><ul><li>Rate of Decay </li></ul><ul><li>E...
<ul><li>Example Retention Goals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1 - 3+ visits per month </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20% open rate / 2...
Retention How do users come back? How often? <ul><li>Key Metrics to Track </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Source </li></ul></ul><ul>...
Retention <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Campaign Monitor / MailChimp (email newsletter software) </li></ul></ul><ul>...
Startup Metrics Acquisition
Website.com <ul><li>Marketing Channels: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>largest-volume (#)  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>lowest-cost (...
Acquisition Where are users coming from? <ul><li>Acquisition Methods </li></ul><ul><li>SEO / SEM </li></ul><ul><li>Blogs <...
Acquisition Keyword Vocabulary <ul><li>Top 10 - 100 words </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Your Brand / Products </li></ul></ul><ul><...
Acquisition Where are users coming from? <ul><li>Key Metrics to Track </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantity (#) </li></ul></ul><u...
Acquisition <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google Analytics (web analytics) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>google.com/ana...
Startup Metrics Referral
Website.com Focus on driving referrals * after * users have a “ happy ” experience; avg score >=  8 out of 10 Referral Acq...
Referral How do users refer others? <ul><li>Referral Methods </li></ul><ul><li>Send to Friend: Email / IM </li></ul><ul><l...
Referral Viral Growth Factor <ul><li>Viral Growth Factor =  X  *  Y  *  Z </li></ul><ul><li>X = % of users who invite othe...
Referral <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gigya (social media distribution & tracking tool) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>...
Startup Metrics Revenue
Website.com Revenue This is the part *you*  still have to figure out…  (we  don’t know jack  about your business) R evenue...
Revenue How do you make money? <ul><li>Revenue Tips </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t Rely on AdSense (only) </li></ul></ul><ul>...
Revenue <ul><li>Resources & Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue Metrics (Andrew Chen) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://ti...
Types of Measurement <ul><li>Qualitative : Usability Testing / Session Monitoring </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Watch users,  gues...
Dave McClure <ul><ul><li>2001-2010: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Startup Investor:  500 Startups, Founders Fund </li></ul></...
500 Hats Investments  (13+ deals, 2004-2008, ~$310K) Results:  1 exit @ $170M (9x) , +3-6 future wins  (i hope ;) 2 exits ...
Founders Fund Investments  (43 deals, 2009, ~2.9M) Results : 8 raised seed rd $500K+ 1 raised $4M; 3 early exits Results :...
500 Startups - Fund I (100+ investments @ ~$75K avg) Wildfire Crave Tello AwayFind Indinero MyGengo Revnetics Mogotix EcoM...
[The  Lean  Startup]
The Lean Startup <ul><li>Talk to  Customers ; Discover  Problems </li></ul><ul><li>Progress ≠ Features ( Less   =  More ) ...
Discover  Customers (Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)
Iterate , Dammit. (Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com) LEARN BUILD MEASURE IDEAS CODE DATA
Product/Market Fit  b4 “Launch” (Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com) Startup-Marketing.com
Title <ul><li>Item 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 3 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 4 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 5 <...
Startup Challenges <ul><li>Startups have problems in 3 key areas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Management : Set Priorities, Defin...
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Startup Metrics 4 Pirates 2.0 (March 2011, SXSW)

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Really rough version of updated Startup Metrics 4 Pirates talk @ Lean Startup SXSW. (sorry, this is gonna be a shitshow... too much partying, not enough prep. lots of random bullets & incoherent fonts... sorry, mofos).

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  • I know, too many bullets…
  • Qualitative: SurveyMonkey (surveys), CrazyEgg (heatmap), TechSmith Morae / UserVue (ux recording), RobotReplay, TapeFailure. Quantitative: Google Analytics (free), MyBlogLog, ClickTracks, Index Tools, Visual Sciences / Webside Story, Omniture, WebTrends, etc. Comparative: Google Website Optimizer, SiteSpect, Optimost, Offermatica, Vertster, Kefta. Competitive: Quantcast, Compete.com, Alexa, Hitwise, Comscore, Nielsens. see more info at: http://webanalyticsassociation.com/ (WAA) http://kaushik.net/ (Avinash Kaushik) http://grokdotcom.com/ (Eisenbergs) http://www.emetrics.org/ (Jim Sterne)
  • Transcript of "Startup Metrics 4 Pirates 2.0 (March 2011, SXSW)"

    1. 1. Startup Metrics for Pirates 2.0 Lean Startup SXSW Austin, TX – March 2011 #LeanSxsw Dave McClure @DaveMcClure http://www.500startups.com http://500hats.typepad.com http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats AARRR !
    2. 2. # TigerBlood 4 Startups # WINNING
    3. 3. [ Bullets Kill ]
    4. 4. Topics <ul><li>Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates” </li></ul><ul><li>Thoughts on Sequencing AARRR </li></ul><ul><li>Thoughts on Constructing MVP </li></ul><ul><li>Iterate on Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) </li></ul><ul><li>Make Marketing [more] Analytical </li></ul>
    5. 5. Disclaimers <ul><li>I’m not really a “metrics” guy </li></ul><ul><li>This is mostly high-concept bullshit </li></ul><ul><li>Several Things Are WRONG (give me feedback) </li></ul><ul><li>… but I promise to be entertaining  </li></ul><ul><li>… & the subsequent panel will be educational </li></ul><ul><li>(ps – sorry about the colors & swearing .) </li></ul>
    6. 6. Key Concepts (Acronyms) <ul><li>MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) </li></ul><ul><li>PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives) </li></ul><ul><li>AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) </li></ul><ul><li>ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) </li></ul><ul><li>WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Revenue) </li></ul>
    7. 7. [ Important Shit ]
    8. 8. Read Geoffrey Miller Sex + Evolution + Consumer Mktg = Awesome Sauce
    9. 9. Other Great Shit. Psychology + Comics
    10. 10. [Startup Metrics 4 Pirates ]
    11. 11. Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics. Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...? <ul><li>Q: Which of these is best? How do you know? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20,000 registered users w/ email address </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo </li></ul></ul>the good stuff.
    12. 12. Startup Metrics for Pirates <ul><li>A cquisition: users come to site from various channels </li></ul><ul><li>A ctivation: users enjoy 1 st visit: &quot; happy ” experience </li></ul><ul><li>R etention: users come back , visit site multiple times </li></ul><ul><li>R eferral: users like product enough to refer others </li></ul><ul><li>R evenue: users conduct some monetization behavior </li></ul>(note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video) AARRR !
    13. 13. AARRR! : 5-Step Startup Metrics Model Website.com R evenue $$$ Biz Dev Ads, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce A CQUISITION SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains R etention Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
    14. 14. One Step at a Time. <ul><ul><li>Make a Good Product : Activation & Retention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Market the Product : Acquisition & Referral </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Make Money : Revenue & Profitability </li></ul></ul>“ You probably can’t save your Ass and your Face at the same time… choose carefully .” – DMC
    15. 15. [ Constructing MVP ]
    16. 16. Role: Founder / CEO <ul><li>Q: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? Why ? </li></ul><ul><li>A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(if you don’t use the metric to make a decision, it’s not actionable) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hypothesize Customer Lifecycle </li></ul><ul><li>Target ~3-5 Conversion Events (tip: Less = More) </li></ul><ul><li>Test, Measure, Iterate to Improve </li></ul>
    17. 17. What is Minimum Viable Product? <ul><li>MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on CUSTOMER(s) FIRST </li></ul><ul><ul><li>TTYFU : Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Get to know habits, problems, desires ( FUN MATTERS ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>what causes pain?  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>what causes pleasure? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Attention/Usage (session time, clicks) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer Data (email, connect, profile) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue (direct or indirect) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Referral (users evangelize to other users) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Note: Paid solutions enable FOCUS (& pay rent)  </li></ul>
    18. 18. Discover Meaning Why Should Users Give a SHIT About You? Kathy Sierra: “ Creating Passionate Users”
    19. 19. Discover Meaning Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action <ul><li>Top 10 - 100 words </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Your Brand / Products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer Needs / Benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitor’s Brand / Products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Semantic Equivalents </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Misspellings </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Relevant images </li></ul><ul><ul><li>People </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Problems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Call-to-Action </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Words </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Images </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Context </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Button/Link </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emotion </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Result </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Positive? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Negative? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Neutral (= Death) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A/B test & Iterate </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. KILL A FEATURE. Something Sucks . Find It. KILL It. <ul><li>STOP ADDING FEATURES. </li></ul><ul><li>Find the ONE THING that users LOVE . </li></ul><ul><li>How to figure out? TAKE. SHIT. AWAY . </li></ul><ul><li>When they SCREAM , you’ve FOUND it. </li></ul><ul><li>Then Bring it Back … Only Better. </li></ul><ul><li>Tip: KILL a Feature Every Week . </li></ul>
    21. 21. Optimize 4 Happiness (both User + Business) <ul><li>Define States of User + Business Value </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State </li></ul><ul><li>Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value </li></ul><ul><li>Optimize for User Happiness / Business $$$ </li></ul><ul><li>Achieve High Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale </li></ul>$$$
    22. 22. Example Conversion Metrics (note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary) Stage Conversion Status Conv. % Est. Value (*not* cost) Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon) 60% $.05 Activation “ Happy” 1 st Visit; Usage/Signup (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage) 15% $.25 Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR) 5% $1 Referral Users Refer Others (cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; ) 1% $5 Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$ (first txn, break-even, target profitability) 2% $50
    23. 23. [ Getting 2 PMF ]
    24. 24. Role: Product / Eng / Design <ul><li>Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”? </li></ul><ul><li>A: Easy-to-Find , Fun / Useful , Unique Features that </li></ul><ul><li> Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates) </li></ul><ul><li>Wireframes = Conversion Steps </li></ul><ul><li>Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly) </li></ul><ul><li>Optimize for Conversion Improvement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>80% on existing feature optimization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20% on new feature development </li></ul></ul>
    25. 25. What is Product/Market Fit? <ul><li>PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives* ) </li></ul><ul><li>not a single event; can evolve, change, grow </li></ul><ul><ul><li>at best, local max 4 set of customers & point in time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>hope yr moving in optimal direction 2 local max </li></ul></ul><ul><li>what competitive solutions are available? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>do your customers know about them? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>how are you diff/same?  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in ways that people care about? (will pay for) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>KILL a FEATURE regularly (or rotate 1% tests) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Q: MOST they will pay 4 LEAST func MVP relative 2 BEST alt? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>NICHE 2 WIN : RE-define cust + DIFFerentiated features </li></ul>
    26. 26. Better or Different . Funny! Shocking !!! Accepted Not Funny.
    27. 27. [ Testing 4 AUX ]
    28. 28. How 2 Tell if Design is Good? <ul><li>AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metric4Success ) </li></ul><ul><li>Define Metrics, Measurability for Design / UX </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on Psychology of User ( Spent , Comics , Influence ) </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t &quot;LAUNCH&quot; Until Your Product Doesn't Suck . </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In fact, Stop Thinking about it as a Launch. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Keep Testing For Awesomeness .  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Am I Awesome? Of COURSE I AM!  # Winning ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>RAMP mktg, $$$ AFTER it’s clear your MVP is </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Functional = used by >1 customers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Differentiated = better than </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Awesome (see above) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Minimum Viable Design = Minimum Viable Awesomeness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>what's shittiest u can do & still be awesome? ( me= swearing ) </li></ul></ul>
    29. 29. [ Metrics 4 ACQ ]
    30. 30. Role: Marketing / Sales <ul><li>Q: What channels? Which users? Why? </li></ul><ul><li>A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%) </li></ul><ul><li>Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns </li></ul><ul><li>Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes </li></ul><ul><li>Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page </li></ul><ul><li>Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential </li></ul><ul><li>Low-Hanging Fruit: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Blogs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SEO/SEM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Landing Pages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Automated Emails </li></ul></ul>
    31. 31. M AARRR keting Plan <ul><li>Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measure conversion to target customer actions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action ( CTA s) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>[Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Avg Txn Value ( ATV ), Ann Rev Per User ( ARPU ), Cust Lifetime Value ( CLV ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Actual $ expenses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Marketing time & resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Product/Engineering time & resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit </li></ul></ul>ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
    32. 32. Example Marketing Channels <ul><li>PR </li></ul><ul><li>Contest </li></ul><ul><li>Biz Dev </li></ul><ul><li>Direct Marketing </li></ul><ul><li>Radio / TV / Print </li></ul><ul><li>Dedicated Sales </li></ul><ul><li>Telemarketing </li></ul><ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>SEO / SEM </li></ul><ul><li>Blogs / Bloggers </li></ul><ul><li>Viral / Referral </li></ul><ul><li>Affiliate / CPA </li></ul><ul><li>Widgets / Apps </li></ul><ul><li>LOLCats ;) </li></ul>
    33. 33. [ What is WINNING? ]
    34. 34. Choose Yer # WIN NING Metrics <ul><li>WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Revenue) </li></ul><ul><li>after MVP functional use, several options: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>better Usage -- Activation / Retention (AUX ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mo' Money --- 'nuff said. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>understand ACQ$ vs REV$ , optimize 4 short-term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High(er) volume usually a priority </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>costs may change as vol increases </li></ul></ul>
    35. 35. [ The Lean Investor ]
    36. 36. Startup 2.0: “Lean Investor” Model <ul><li>Method : Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success. </li></ul><ul><li>Incubator : $0-100K (“ Product Viability ”) </li></ul><ul><li>Seed : $100-$1M (“ Expand Distribution ”) </li></ul><ul><li>Venture : $1M-$5M (“ Maximize Revenue ”) </li></ul>
    37. 37. Investment #1: Incubate (“Product”) <ul><li>Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1-3 founders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$25K-$100K investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Build Functional Prototype / “ Minimum Viable Product ” ( MVP ): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “ It Works ” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use </li></ul><ul><li>Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment </li></ul>
    38. 38. Investment #2: Seed (“Market”) <ul><li>Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2-5 person team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$100K-$1M investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Improve Product, Expand Market , Test Revenue: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “ Doesn’t Suck ” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size </li></ul><ul><li>Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Determine Org Structure, Key Hires </li></ul>
    39. 39. Investment #3: Venture (“Revenue”) <ul><li>Structure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5-10 person team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$1M-$5M investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VC Investors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Make Money , Get to Sustainability: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beta->Production, 12-18 months </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “ It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends ” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connect with Distribution Partners </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business </li></ul><ul><li>Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable , Exit Options </li></ul>
    40. 40. [ Don’t Pitch Me, Bro. ] Seriously : Don’t. Fucking . Pitch Me. (and don’t email me either, cuz i won’t read it)
    41. 41. Don’t Pitch Me, Bro. <ul><li>1 st : Read my stuff (blogs, decks, tweets). </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd : Get a referral from someone I trust. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>500 Mentors or 500 Founders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other Subject Matter Experts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>*Not* Your Mom. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3 rd : Be Concise. Don’t Suck . </li></ul>Email
    42. 42. Links & Resources <ul><li>Additional References: </li></ul><ul><li>Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book) </li></ul><ul><li>The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book) </li></ul><ul><li>Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso) </li></ul><ul><li>Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog) </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book) </li></ul><ul><li>Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website) </li></ul><ul><li> Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog) </li></ul><ul><li> Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog ) </li></ul><ul><li>Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog) </li></ul><ul><li>KISSmetrics.com Hiten Shah / Neil Patel (website) </li></ul><ul><li>How To Pitch a VC Dave McClure (slides, NSFW) </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book) </li></ul>
    43. 43. Appendix
    44. 44. Startup Metrics Activation
    45. 45. Website.com <ul><li>Activation Criteria: </li></ul><ul><li>10-30+ seconds </li></ul><ul><li>2-3+ page views </li></ul><ul><li>3-5+ clicks </li></ul><ul><li>1 key feature usage </li></ul>do LOTS of landing page & A/B tests – make lots of dumb guesses & iterate FAST Activation SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains
    46. 46. Activation What do users do on their first visit? <ul><li>Example Activation Goals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Click on something! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Account sign up / Emails </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Referrals / Tell a friend </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Widgets / Embeds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low Bounce Rate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Activation Tips </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Less is more </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on user experience / usability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide incentives & call to actions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Test and iterate continuously </li></ul></ul>
    47. 47. Activation What do users do on their first visit? <ul><li>Key Metrics to Track </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pages per visit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time on site </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conversions </li></ul></ul>
    48. 48. Activation <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crazy Egg (Visual Click Mapping) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://crazyegg.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Google Website Optimizer (A/B & Multivariate Testing) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://google.com/websiteoptimizer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Marketo.com (B2B Lead Generation Management) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://marketo.com </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Experimentation and Testing: A Primer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>kaushik.net/avinash/2006/05/experimentation-and-testing-a-primer.html </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Landing Page Design Toolbox: 100 Tips & Tools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://tinyurl.com/326co6 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Landing Page Tutorials & Case Studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.copyblogger.com/landing-pages/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>101 Easy Easy to use Google Website Optimizer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://conversion-rate-experts.com/articles/101-google-website-optimizer-tips/ </li></ul></ul>
    49. 49. Startup Metrics Retention
    50. 50. Website.com <ul><li>Automated emails: </li></ul><ul><li>lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d </li></ul><ul><li>status / “best of” weekly/monthly </li></ul><ul><li>“ something happened” emails </li></ul><ul><li>BUT: </li></ul><ul><li>make it easy to unsubscribe </li></ul><ul><li>Tip on emails: </li></ul><ul><li>> 80% or more on SUBJECT LINE </li></ul><ul><li>< 20% or less on BODY TEXT </li></ul>Retention SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
    51. 51. <ul><li>Cohort Analysis: </li></ul><ul><li>Distrib of Visits over Time </li></ul><ul><li>Rate of Decay </li></ul><ul><li>Effective Customer Lifecycle </li></ul><ul><li>Retention Methods </li></ul><ul><li>Automated Emails </li></ul><ul><ul><li>* Track open rate / CTR / Quantity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>RSS / News Feeds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>* Track % viewed / CTR / Quantity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Widgets / Embeds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>* Track impressions / CTR / Quantity </li></ul></ul>Retention How do users come back? How often?
    52. 52. <ul><li>Example Retention Goals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1 - 3+ visits per month </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20% open rate / 2% CTR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High deliverability / Low spam rating </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long customer life cycle / Low decay </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identify fanatics and cheerleaders </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Retention Tips </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Email is simple and it works </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BUT make unsubscribe easy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>80% subject line / 20% body text </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ACTUALLY 99% subject line / 1% body text </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fanatics = virality + affiliate channel (bloggers?) </li></ul></ul>Retention How do users come back? How often?
    53. 53. Retention How do users come back? How often? <ul><li>Key Metrics to Track </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Source </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conversions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Visitor Loyalty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Session Length </li></ul></ul>
    54. 54. Retention <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Campaign Monitor / MailChimp (email newsletter software) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>campaignmonitor.com / mailchimp.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TriggerMail (site-centric email management) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>triggermail.net </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Litmus (email and website design testing - clients / browsers) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>litmusapp.com </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>30 free HTML email templates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>campaignmonitor.com/resources/templates.aspx </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Best Practices in Writing Email Subject Lines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mailchimp.com/resources/best-practices-in-writing-email-subject-lines.phtml </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning Viral: Viral Emails of Tagged.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>okdork.com/2008/04/10/learning-viral-studying-taggedcom/ </li></ul></ul>
    55. 55. Startup Metrics Acquisition
    56. 56. Website.com <ul><li>Marketing Channels: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>largest-volume (#) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>lowest-cost ($) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>best-performing (%) </li></ul></ul>Acquisition SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains
    57. 57. Acquisition Where are users coming from? <ul><li>Acquisition Methods </li></ul><ul><li>SEO / SEM </li></ul><ul><li>Blogs </li></ul><ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>Social Media & Social Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Domains </li></ul>
    58. 58. Acquisition Keyword Vocabulary <ul><li>Top 10 - 100 words </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Your Brand / Products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Customer Needs / Benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competitor’s Brand / Products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Semantic Equivalents </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Misspellings </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Things to analyze </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Volume </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conversion </li></ul></ul>
    59. 59. Acquisition Where are users coming from? <ul><li>Key Metrics to Track </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantity (#) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost ($) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conversions (%) </li></ul></ul>Example
    60. 60. Acquisition <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google Analytics (web analytics) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>google.com/analytics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Google Keyword Tool (keyword research tool) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SEO Book Tools (SEO related tools) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>tools.seobook.com </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SEO Book Blog </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>seobook.com/blog </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Social Media Manual: Read Before You Play </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>searchengineland.com/071120-144401.php </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategies to ruthlessly acquire users </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/04/10_obvious_stra.html </li></ul></ul>
    61. 61. Startup Metrics Referral
    62. 62. Website.com Focus on driving referrals * after * users have a “ happy ” experience; avg score >= 8 out of 10 Referral Acquisition SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Retention Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
    63. 63. Referral How do users refer others? <ul><li>Referral Methods </li></ul><ul><li>Send to Friend: Email / IM </li></ul><ul><li>Social Media </li></ul><ul><li>Widgets / Embeds </li></ul><ul><li>Affiliates </li></ul>
    64. 64. Referral Viral Growth Factor <ul><li>Viral Growth Factor = X * Y * Z </li></ul><ul><li>X = % of users who invite other people </li></ul><ul><li>Y = average # of people that they invited </li></ul><ul><li>Z = % of users who accepted an invitation </li></ul>A viral growth factor > 1 means an exponential organic user acquisition.
    65. 65. Referral <ul><li>Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gigya (social media distribution & tracking tool) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>gigya.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ShareThis / AddThis (sharing buttons) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>sharethis.com / addthis.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GetMyContacts (PHP contacts importing & invitation software) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>getmycontacts.com </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Seven Ways to GO VIRAL </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>lsvp.wordpress.com/2007/03/02/seven-ways-to-go-viral/ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What’s your viral loop? Understanding the engine of adoption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/07/whats-your-vira.html </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Metrics: Where Users Come From </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>slideshare.net/guest2968b8/rockyou-snap-summit-32508 </li></ul></ul>
    66. 66. Startup Metrics Revenue
    67. 67. Website.com Revenue This is the part *you* still have to figure out… (we don’t know jack about your business) R evenue $$$ Biz Dev Ads, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce Acquisition SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Retention Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
    68. 68. Revenue How do you make money? <ul><li>Revenue Tips </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t Rely on AdSense (only) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Start Free => 2% “ Freemium ” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Subscription / Recurring transactions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Qualify your customers -> Lead generation (arbitrage) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sell something! (physical or virtual) </li></ul></ul>
    69. 69. Revenue <ul><li>Resources & Tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue Metrics (Andrew Chen) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://tinyurl.com/47r63a </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How to Create a Profitable “Freemium” Startup (Andrew Chen) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://tinyurl.com/8z9ygk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2008 Affiliate Marketing Review (Scott Jangro) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://tinyurl.com/86wak4 </li></ul></ul>
    70. 70. Types of Measurement <ul><li>Qualitative : Usability Testing / Session Monitoring </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Watch users, guess problems & solutions from small # of users </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Quantitative : Traffic Analysis / User Engagement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Track users, usage, conv %'s for empirical sample # of users </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Comparative : A/B, Multivariate Testing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Compare what users do in one scenario vs another </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measure which copy/graphics/UI are most effective </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Competitive : Monitoring & Tracking Competitors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Track competitor activity & compare against yours (if possible) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Compare channels, keyword traffic, demographics, user sat, etc. </li></ul></ul>
    71. 71. Dave McClure <ul><ul><li>2001-2010: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Startup Investor: 500 Startups, Founders Fund </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tech Marketing : PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advisor, Angel Investor : 100+ Startups </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Conferences : Warm Gun, Lean Startup, SMASH </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stanford Lecturer : Facebook, Startup Metrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>80’s & 90’s: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Entrepreneur : Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Developer : Windows Apps / SQL DB Admin </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>User Groups : E-Commerce, Internet, Client-Server </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Engineer : Johns Hopkins ‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math </li></ul></ul>GEEK, CODER, ENTREPRENEUR Blogger, Marketing, Angel/VC Investor
    72. 72. 500 Hats Investments (13+ deals, 2004-2008, ~$310K) Results: 1 exit @ $170M (9x) , +3-6 future wins (i hope ;) 2 exits @ $50M, $70M (advisory roles) (acq YHOO) (acq GOOG) (acq INTU)
    73. 73. Founders Fund Investments (43 deals, 2009, ~2.9M) Results : 8 raised seed rd $500K+ 1 raised $4M; 3 early exits Results : 6 raised next rd $2M+ 1 raised $12M; 1 early exit fbFund REV (Facebook Incubator) 22 deals ($850K total) ~$40K avg FF Angel LLC 21 deals ($2M total) ~$100K avg
    74. 74. 500 Startups - Fund I (100+ investments @ ~$75K avg) Wildfire Crave Tello AwayFind Indinero MyGengo Revnetics Mogotix EcoMom Zencoder GazeHawk Crocodoc SayHired Recurly AppBistro Foodspotting Gantto Medialets Rapportive TransFS SiteJabber GinzaMetrics Estately FlowTown OneForty Twilio Postling Plancast ElaCarte WePay Zappli Format Baydin GroupSpaces Rapportive Apsalar Bunndle Udemy Brainient ReadyForZero Graphicly StoryJumper OtherInbox Viikii Zozi One True Fan Formative Labs Networked Blogs
    75. 75. [The Lean Startup]
    76. 76. The Lean Startup <ul><li>Talk to Customers ; Discover Problems </li></ul><ul><li>Progress ≠ Features ( Less = More ) </li></ul><ul><li>Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop ) </li></ul><ul><li>Measure Conversion ; Compare 2+ Options </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on Product/Market Fit (don’t “launch” b4) </li></ul><ul><li>Keep it Simple & Actionable </li></ul>
    77. 77. Discover Customers (Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)
    78. 78. Iterate , Dammit. (Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com) LEARN BUILD MEASURE IDEAS CODE DATA
    79. 79. Product/Market Fit b4 “Launch” (Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com) Startup-Marketing.com
    80. 80. Title <ul><li>Item 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 3 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 4 </li></ul><ul><li>Item 5 </li></ul>
    81. 81. Startup Challenges <ul><li>Startups have problems in 3 key areas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Management : Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Product : Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Marketing : Distribution, Distribution, Distribution. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li> ( Search , Social , Mobile ) </li></ul></ul>
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