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Farming Unicorns: Building Startup & Investor Ecosystems (Stanford, June 2016)

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slides for my talk on building startup ecosystems, for the Global Entrepreneurship Summit (Stanford, June 2016)

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Farming Unicorns: Building Startup & Investor Ecosystems (Stanford, June 2016)

  1. @DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co Stanford - June 2016 Farming Unicorns Building Startup & Investor Ecosystems
  2. Dave McClure
 Founding Partner, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  3. • What is 500? – $250M silicon valley VC fund + startup accelerator – 125 people / 25 languages / 20 countries – 1500+ Companies / 3000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors – Investment, Accelerator, Distro, Marketing, Events, Education – Community + Content + Conferences • 1500+ Co’s / 50+ Countries – Credit Karma – Twilio – Grab – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Behance (acq Adobe, $150M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Sunrise (acq MSFT, $100M) – Udemy – Ipsy – TalkDesk – Intercom 500 Startups
 Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
  4. How Many Startups to Get to 1 Unicorn?
  5. Perils of Becoming a Unicorn (Before/After IPO) 2009 2016 Jeff Lawson, Founder/CEO Twilio (NYSE:TWLO)
  6. Investor Ecosystem Angels & Incubators ($0-10M) “Seed” Funds ($10-100M) “Traditional” VC Funds ($100-500M) “Unicorn” VC Funds (>$500M) Incubation 0-$100K Seed $100K-$1M Series A/B $1-10M Series B/C $10-100M Bootstrap, KickStarter, AngelList, Crowdfunding
  7. Dinosaurs vs. Cockroaches
 LEAN Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter 1996 ”Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup” • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl 2016 ”Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup” • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility
  8. Platforms:
 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  9. Portfolio Diversification “Spray, not Pray”
  10. 99 VC Problems But a Batch Ain’t 1 10 http://bit.ly/99VCProblems
  11. Q: Chances of spotting unicorn?/ a) 1% b) 2% c) 5% d) 10% e) ZERO
  12. Chances of spotting unicorn = ~1%/
  13. If portfolio size = 15 companies/
  14. / If portfolio size = 30 companies
  15. / If portfolio size = 100 companies
  16. 500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets* 1) make lots of little bets on early-stage startups when they’re just getting started 3) wait 5-10 years for returns: -10-20% small exits @1-5X ($5-25M+) -5-10% larger exits @5-20X ($25-250M+) -1-2% unicorns @20-50X+ ($250M-1B+) *See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets” 2) over the next five years, double-down on top 20-30% ~500 co’s @ $100K 1st checks 100+ co’s @ $200-500K 2nd/3rd checks (hope for a few big exits @ $100M-$1B+) (assume high failure rate ~50-80%)
  17. The Lean Investor Make lots of little bets: • Start with many small “experiments” • Filter out failures + small wins • Double-down on stuff that looks like it’s working • Incubation: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  18. Startup Risk Reduction Concept Early Customer Usage Scalable Customer Acquisition [about to be] Profitable Unit Economics Scalable Profitable Business Functional Prototype PRODUCT MARKET REVENUE Exit? When 500 Likes to Invest
  19. Investment Stage #1: 
 Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $0-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  20. Investment Stage #2: 
 Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  21. Investment Stage #3: 
 Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  22. Building Startup Ecosystems
  23. Critical Ecosystem Factors • Optimism & Belief (“Silicon Valley”) • Mentorship + Education (Knowledge) • Universities + Companies (People) • Capital, Legal, Finance (Infrastructure) • Engineering + Design / UX (Product) • Platforms + Distribution (Customers) • Online Payments (Monetization) • IPO / M&A Market (Exits)
  24. Investing Resources • The Venture Capital Cycle (Gompers, Lerner) • Venture Deals (Feld, Mendelson) • Angel Investing (Rose) • Venture Hacks (Naval, Nivi) • blogs: Fred Wilson, Brad Feld, Mark Suster • Quora: Jason Lemkin, David Rose, etc
  25. Questions? Comments? • More Info? – http://500.co (our company) – http://500hats.com (my blog) – https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) – Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

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