UK Climate Projections - UKCP09

UK Climate Projections - UKCP09 Third Sector Projections in Practice Event, Reading, 28 July 2009 Dr Alastair Brown, UK Climate Impacts Programme

Introduction
B ackground to the UK Climate Projections
UKCP09 products
Using UKCP09 products
UKCIP support

How do we plan for the future?
The past as a guide to the future
assumes “stationarity”
but, past events and their management may be informative
Oracles, augury, cards, sorcery, ……
“ Predict – Optimise - Relax” or “Assess – Hedge - Review”?
Plan for one future or many?
Impacts & Consequences what will happen? Climate change how will my system behave? Sensitivity/vulnerability

Background to UKCP09
UK climate scenarios produced since 1991
UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002
Nature and scope of information has evolved, building upon:
improved scientific knowledge
increased computing power
stakeholder requirements
Each has represented best scientific understanding at that time
Audience has evolved and grown
CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCP09 next

User-led development
Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – (resulting in probabilistic nature of the projections)
Improved spatial and temporal detail
Improved accessibility (we provided a dedicated online user interface)
More information about climate change in the marine environment
W hat next?

UKCIP and UKCP09 UKCIP - UK Climate Impacts Programme http://www.ukcip.org.uk UKCP09 - 2009 Climate Projections http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk UKCP09 launched on 18 June 2009

Production Partners
Management by Defra, Hadley Centre, UKCIP
User Panel, Steering Group, Expert Review
Others delivered User Interface, Marine, Weather Generator, Guidance

UKCP09 Improvements
Improved representation of the climate system
Quantification of modelling uncertainty
Probabilistic output – robust decisions
More spatial and temporal detail
User interface
Training programme
Managed enquiry system

UKCP09 – Responding to Users 25 km grid Marine Administrative River Basin 30-year time periods Uncertainty Spatial resolution Temporal resolution

Clarifying Uncertainties
The provision of probabilistic projections is one of the fundamental building blocks of UKCP09
Probabilities provide a relative measure of the strength of evidence considered that supports a particular future climate outcome – supporting risk management and robust decision making
Relative strength of the evidence supporting a specific change…. Relative strength of the evidence supporting the change being equal to or less than a specific amount… PDF CDF
Do not indicate the percentage of occasions during a 30-year time period when the change be less than the specified value
78% probability of being equal to or greater than 3 20 0 40 60 80 100 Size of change 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 22% Size of change 2 0 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8%

Uncertainty: “ How hot?” Answer 1 Answer 2 “ 42 ° C ” No information on uncertainty Very acceptable to some May be misunderstood as “no uncertainty” Uncertainty is explicit May be unwelcome – much more work required Better decisions possible

UKCP09 layered approach Communicators Researcher / Scientist Decision Makers

UKCP09 products

Online support – User Guidance

Online support – User Interface manual

Training support
Projections in Practice (PiP) programme
Familiarisation workshops
M ax 100 delegates
P resentations from UKCIP, Defra, Keynote speaker
H ands-on training on accessing the User Interface
10 delegates
National, s ector specific events (July 2009)
Regional events (Autumn 2009)

Training support (cont.)
eLearning
Aim to s upport and enhance PiP programme
D evelop communities of practice using UKCP09 to share understanding and good practice
D iscussion forums
W ikis
B logs
N ews feeds
W ebinars
P odcasts
S pecific online resources to develop skills and understanding

Supporting UKCP09
Online support
Dedicated website
The User Guidance
The User Interface manual
Help desk (FAQs)
Training
Projections in Practice (PiP) programme
eLearning

H o w UKCP09 might be used …
“ Roads are being sanded as quickly as the Council can do the work but the Council can barely cope” (Oxford Times 2 nd July 2006)
Highways responded as gritters had been used for the first time during the summer as roads began to melt.
Council members asked for a post event review from the Highways Department

How could they use UKCP09?
Highways were able to identify the conditions under which the roads began to melt. Air temperatures in excess of 35 ° C for more than 2 days.
Review the Observed trends report and Climate projections report, and evaluate if roads melting in the summer is likely to become a more regular event.
Use this information along with Key findings, the Briefing report and Pre-prepared maps & graphs, submit a report to council members to describe what had happened and suggest further research.

The need to know more
With additional resources they could explore various UKCP09 products
Using customisable outputs (from User Interface)
Sampled data using t he Weather Generator
Benefits Limitations More specific detail 25km resolution Probabilistic data Monthly data Benefits Limitations 5km resolution L arge data set Daily information A ble to explore thresholds Less robust

Worked Example - Summary
UKCP09 is suite of products
use the right product in the right place
St rengths and weaknesses to using each product

Useful Websites UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk UKCP09 Technical Site http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk UKCP09 Helpdesk http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/helpdesk Training & e-learning resources for UKCP09 http://www.ukcip.org/training

UK Climate Projections - UKCP09

by Defra on Jul 29, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Usage Rights

1 Embed 2

Statistics

UK Climate Projections - UKCP09 Presentation Transcript