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ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012
 

ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012

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Technology Forecast 2012 ...

Technology Forecast 2012

Event was hosted by DLA Piper at their Edinburgh office. It was standing room only, with a huge audience.
David Mitchell, Research Director at Gartner presented the annual forecast event for the 7th year.

He provided a whistle stop tour of technology trends and key developments which will impact the industry in the short to medium term. Always informative with a humorous twist, this is a 'not to be missed opportunity' to re-assess how markets are likely to change, and what to look out for in 2012, and beyond, as we start the new year.

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    ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012 ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012 Presentation Transcript

    • Navigating a Stormy Market ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012 David Mitchell, Research Director, Gartner david.mitchell@gartner.comThis presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or otherauthorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied,distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
    • Data Centres and Cloud Application Development IT Services eCommerce SocialData Management
    • Data Centres and Cloud By 2015, 40% of theBy 2015, the cloud most successful will propel CIOs will use cloudenterprises back to By 2015, 40% of net Through 2014, at sourcing to cut least 50% of SaaS a best-of-breed new business costs and generate mind-set for process services will customers will new revenue in experience higher innovating and be delivered as order to outperform differentiating the business process as than expected competitors. costs. ERP. a service (BPaaS). Frances Karamouzis Claudio Da Rold Robert DeSisto Jim Shepherd
    • Data Centres and Cloud By 2016, due to Through 2013, 60% cloud computing, of enterprise IT 75% of IT By 2015, 30% of public cloud organizations midsize adoption projects without better IT businesses will will involve the By 2013, at least demand adopt recovery-in- redeployment of 20% of management will the-cloud services unchanged organizations using to support IT By 2015, 40% of the applications to IaaS SaaS deploymentsByend up the cloud 2015, spending most successful or backward- more on IT. operations will move them back will propel CIOs will use cloud compatible PaaS. recovery. on-premises. Through 2014, atenterprises back to By 2015, 40% of net sourcing to cut a best-of-breed new business least 50% of SaaS Kurt Potter, Barbara costs and generate customers will mind-set for process services will John Morency new revenue in Yefim Natis Gomolski Sharon Mertz experience higher innovating and be delivered as order to outperform differentiating the business process as than expected competitors. costs. ERP. a service (BPaaS). Frances Karamouzis Claudio Da Rold Robert DeSisto Jim Shepherd
    • Data Centres and Cloud Cloud adoption in By 2015, 30% of By 2016, 50% of By 2016, due to Europe will be infrastructure as a 2013, 60% Through organizations will cloud computing,delayed by at least service (IaaS) source their UC on of enterprise IT 75% of IT two years, due2015, 30% providers willpublic clouda utility subscription By to of lose organizations fragmentation of the midsize the price war and projects adoption model, up from less without better ITregulationsbusinesses willexit the market. and will involve the than 5% today. By 2013, at least demand privacy rules. recovery-in- adopt redeployment of 20% of management will the-cloud services unchanged organizations using to support IT Frank Ridder 40% of the By 2015, applications to IaaS Steve BloodByend up the cloud 2015, spending SaaS deployments more on IT. operations most successful or backward- will move them back will propel Paolo Malinverno CIOs will use cloud compatible PaaS. recovery. on-premises. Through 2014, atenterprises back to By 2015, 40% of net sourcing to cut a best-of-breed new business least 50% of SaaS Kurt Potter, Barbara costs and generate customers will mind-set for process services will John Morency new revenue in Yefim Natis Gomolski Sharon Mertz experience higher innovating and be delivered as order to outperform differentiating the business process as than expected competitors. costs. ERP. a service (BPaaS). Frances Karamouzis Claudio Da Rold Robert DeSisto Jim Shepherd
    • Scottish implications• Cloud opportunities may be delayed by 2 years due to regulation• Cloud will generate highly variable business outcomes• Many applications will be deployed unchanged, with a reduced opportunity for re-platform/re- development projects• Cloud providers need to be wary of the rush to the bottom in IaaS 5
    • Application Development Through 2016, By 2014, in new organizations will websites targeted to Through 2020, continue to spend mobile devices, theattempts to displace more of their IT use of wrappedbrowser JavaScript budget on By 2014, 30 of the HTML will have at with proprietary application most popular 100 least 10 times the client-side Web integration than on Web applications growth rate of programming building new will work online or Adobe Flash and languages will fail. applications. off. Microsoft Silverlight. Eric Knipp Yefim Natis Tom Austin Gene Phifer
    • Application Development By year-end 2013, 75% of new By 2014, more than business By 2015, 50% of 65% of user- By 2015, up to 15% applications will business developed cloud of user identities will incorporate socialapplications use by applications will be partly vetted and user styles, managers and Through 2016, employ advanced authenticated using By 2014, in new conventions andcasual users will be organizations will IMC technology to mobile location websites targeted to information feeds Through 2020, continue to spend meet QoS services, up from mobile devices, the for the uservia mobile devices.attempts to displace more of their IT requirements. less than 1% today. use of wrapped experience.browser JavaScript budget on By 2014, 30 of the HTML will have at with proprietary Christian application most popular 100 least 10 times the client-side Web Hestermann integrationPezzini Massimo than on Web applications Avivah Litan growth Sussin Jenny rate of programming building new will work online or Adobe Flash and languages will fail. applications. off. Microsoft Silverlight. Eric Knipp Yefim Natis Tom Austin Gene Phifer
    • Application Development By 2016, most By 2015, 30% of collaboration In 2015, more than users accessing By 2015, more thanapplications will be half of new enterprise networks By year-end 2013, 70% of new salesequally available on business or high-value Web 75% of new application projects desktops, mobile By 2014, morewill applications than applications from willbusiness be SaaS.phones, tablets and By 2015, 50% of leverageuser- 65% of event smartphones or By 2015, up to 15% applications will browsers. business developed cloud streams to improve tablets will use of user identities will incorporate socialapplications use by applications will situation awareness biometric be partly vetted and user styles, Robert DeSisto managers and Through 2016, employdecision and advanced authentication. authenticated using By 2014, in new conventions and Monica Basso organizations will IMC technology to mobile location websites targeted to information feedscasual users will be effectiveness. Through 2020, continue to spend meet QoS services, up from mobile devices, the for the uservia mobile devices.attempts to displace more of their IT requirements. less than Allan Ant 1% today. use of wrapped experience.browser JavaScript budget on Roy Schulte By 2014, 30 of the HTML will have at with proprietary Christian application most popular 100 least 10 times the client-side Web Hestermann integrationPezzini Massimo than on Web applications Avivah Litan growth Sussin Jenny rate of programming building new will work online or Adobe Flash and languages will fail. applications. off. Microsoft Silverlight. Eric Knipp Yefim Natis Tom Austin Gene Phifer
    • Scottish implications• Applications will need to work offline and online• Applications will increasingly adopt social techniques within them• Application and platform security methods are rapidly evolving• Event-stream processing and in-memory technology are technologies to watch 9
    • IT Services By 2015, 80% of ITBy 2015, adoption organizations will of "as a service" By 2015, 25% of midsize businesses By 2016, 50% of reach resourcemodels will replace new integration breaking points, 15% of low-cost, in mature markets will virtualize one- projects will involve under intensecompetitive-parity- on-premises pressure to deliverdriven outsourcing third of their PCs, over double the applications, e- the right project deals. commerce trading resources just in large-enterprise rate. partners and cloud time. services. Frances Karamouzis and Donna Fitzgerald et Jim Longwood Jim Browning and Mika Kitagawa Benoit Lheureux al
    • IT ServicesBy 2016, 20% of IT By 2016, most By 2015, 20% of the Through 2015, organizations in collaboration market-leading IT security incidentsgrowth enterprises applications will be service providers will increase 25% or will set a goal of equally available on not investing in more in increasing grow- desktops, mobile industrialization organizations that and-transform IT phones, tablets and through adopt BYODspending to 50% of browsers. demonstrated without reinvesting their annual nonlinear revenue at least one-third of expenditures. will be at risk. Bythe savings in IT 2015, 80% of By 2015, adoption of "as a service" By 2015, Basso Monica 25% of security. organizations will midsize businesses By 2016, 50% of reach resourcemodels will replaceKurt Potter, Barbara Sandraintegration new Notardonato breaking points, 15% of low-cost, in mature markets Gomolski will virtualize one- and Claudio Da projects will involve Lawrence Orans under intense competitive-parity- Rold on-premises and John Pescatore pressure to deliver driven outsourcing third of their PCs, over double the applications, e- the right project deals. commerce trading resources just in large-enterprise rate. partners and cloud time. services. Frances Karamouzis and Donna Fitzgerald et Jim Longwood Jim Browning and Mika Kitagawa Benoit Lheureux al
    • Scottish implications• Beware of margin crunch and XaaS substitution effect• Reliance on labor-based models is risky; industrialization and automation• Resource constraints in customers may become an impediment to new business 12
    • eCommerce By 2015, the By 2014, customer marketing budget By year-end 2012, fallout will drive allocated to more than 50% of down customer By 2015, 50% of retaining customers greenfield social satisfaction in 70% online customer and increasing commerce initiativesof organizations that self-service search loyalty through will fail to drive shift customer activities will be via customer service sales beyond what support to a VA for at least will more than had been obtained communities. 1,500 large double. from existing e- enterprises. commerce activities. Jenny Sussin and Kimberly Collins Carol Rozwell Johan Jacobs and Jenny Sussin Praveen Sengar
    • eCommerce By 2015, at least By 2014, refusing to By 2014, 25% of new CEOs communicate with organizations at Fortune 500 customers via social integrating manufacturers and channels will be as communities into retailers will have harmful as ignoring customer support deep supply chain emails or phone will realize cost experience. calls is today. reductions ranging from 10% to 50%. By 2015, the By 2014, customer Tohamy et al Noha Jeffrey Mann,marketing budget Carol By year-end 2012, fallout will drive Rozwell allocated toMichael Maoz than 50% of more down customer By 2015, 50% of retaining customers greenfield social satisfaction in 70% online customer and increasing commerceof organizations that self-service search loyalty through initiatives will fail to shift customer activities will be via customer service drive sales beyond support to a VA for at least will more than what had been communities. 1,500 large double. obtained from enterprises. existing e- commerce Jenny Sussin and Kimberly Collins activities. Carol Rozwell Johan Jacobs and Jenny Sussin Praveen Sengar
    • Scottish implications• Social and eCommerce segments are converging• Social commerce, though, will have mixed results• Community-based customer support will have mixed impact on margin and CSAT• Marketing needs to focus more on retention not just acquisition• Automated agents are worth watching as a technology 15
    • Social By year-end 2013, By year-end 2013, 75% of new By YE2012, over B2B organizations business60% of Fortune 500 using social CRM applications will companies will By year-end 2014, will represent 25% incorporate social actively be at least one social of all projects user styles,engaging customers network provider will worldwide, which is conventions and with Facebook become an an increase from information feeds marketing, up from insurance sales fewer than 10% in for the user 20% today channel 2011 experience. Adam Sarner Juergen Weiss Ed Thompson Jenny Sussin
    • Social By 2014, refusing to By 2014, less than communicate with 20% of large customers via social enterprises will channels will be as block all access to harmful as ignoring external social emails or phone media, down from calls is today. approximately 50% in 2011. By year-end 2013, By year-end 2013, 75% of new By YE2012, over Jeffrey Mann, Carol B2B organizations business60% of Fortune 500 Rozwell using social CRM Andrew Walls applications will companies will By year-end 2014, will represent 25% incorporate social actively be at least one social of all projects user styles,engaging customers network provider will worldwide, which is conventions and with Facebook become an an increase from information feeds marketing, up from insurance sales fewer than 10% in for the user 20% today channel 2011 experience. Adam Sarner Juergen Weiss Ed Thompson Jenny Sussin
    • Scottish implications• Social players will continue to diversify and seek monetization opportunities• Social is increasing in acceptance by the “suits” in corporate IT• Social CRM is a very active technology area 18
    • Data Management Through 2015, Through 2015, business analytics more than 90% of needs will drive Through 2015, 85% business leaders By 2014, at least70% of investments of Fortune 500 contend information 50% of midsize in the expansion organizations will be is a strategic asset, businesses willand modernization unable to exploit big yet fewer than 10% triple the storage of information data for competitive will quantify its capacity that they infrastructure. advantage. economic value. had in 2011. Ted Friedman Steve Prentice Doug Laney Jie Zhang
    • Data ManagementBy 2016, in-memory Through 2016, Through 2016, 75% By 2016, 20% of column-store spending on of CISOs who CIOs in regulated database governing experience publicly industries will lose management information must disclosed security their jobs for failingsystems will replace increase to five breaches and lack to implement the 25% of traditional times the current documented, tested discipline of data warehouses level to be response plans will information and online successful. be fired. governance transaction Through 2015, Through 2015, successfully. processing business analytics more than 90% of applications. needs will drive Ted Friedman Through 2015, 85% Rob McMillan business leaders By 2014, at least70% of investments of Fortune 500 contend information Debra Logan 50% of midsize in the expansion organizations will be is a strategic asset, businesses willDonald Feinberg et and modernization unable to exploit big yet fewer than 10% triple the storage al of information data for competitive will quantify its capacity that they infrastructure. advantage. economic value. had in 2011. Ted Friedman Steve Prentice Doug Laney Jie Zhang
    • Data Management By 2015, 20% of the revenue in dataBy 2016, in-memory Through 2016, management Through 2016, 75% By 2016, 20% of column-store spending on of CISOs who technology markets CIOs in regulated database governing be captured via will experience publicly industries will lose management information must disclosed security nonperpetual their jobs for failingsystems will replace increase to five licensing models, a and lack breaches to implement the 25% of traditional times the current than documented, tested more fivefold discipline of data warehouses level to be response plans will increase. information and online successful. be fired. governance transaction Through 2015, Through 2015, successfully. processing business analytics Ted Friedman than 90% of more applications. needs will drive Ted Friedman Through 2015, 85% Rob McMillan business leaders By 2014, at least70% of investments of Fortune 500 contend information Debra Logan 50% of midsize in the expansion organizations will be is a strategic asset, businesses willDonald Feinberg et and modernization unable to exploit big yet fewer than 10% triple the storage al of information data for competitive will quantify its capacity that they infrastructure. advantage. economic value. had in 2011. Ted Friedman Steve Prentice Doug Laney Jie Zhang
    • Scottish implications• Increases in data volumes and the needs of analytics will drive infrastructure spend• In-memory technology and data security technologies are worth watching• Information management and governance spend will need to increase, otherwise CIO tenure….• Revenue models for information management are changing 22
    • Sales and MarketingBy 2015, Amazon,Google, Microsoft, By 2014, 60% of Nokia, Baidu and By 2015, 70% of traditional IT By 2014, inside Apple will collect branded distributors will sales capacity in personally manufacturers will become cloud technology identifiable implement e- aggregation providers will transaction …on commerce to sell brokerages increase 50% to 10% of the direct to consumers, servicing SMBs drive speed and population in creating significant through VAR responsiveness ofdeveloped nations. channel conflict. partners. sales. William Clark Chris Fletcher Tiffani Bova David Mitchell
    • Sales and Marketing By 2015, 50% of By 2015, IT the VAR channel marketers that will disappear due adopt best practices to its slow response in real-time in satisfying major marketing will technology provider outperform those needs. that adhere toBy 2015, Amazon, traditional, slowerGoogle, Microsoft, By 2014, 60% of processes. Nokia, Baidu and By 2015, 70% of Neil McMurchy traditional IT By 2014, inside Apple will collect branded distributors will sales capacity in personally manufacturers will become cloud Richard Fouts technology identifiable implement e- aggregation providers will transaction …on commerce to sell brokerages increase 50% to 10% of the direct to consumers, servicing SMBs drive speed and population in creating significant through VAR responsiveness ofdeveloped nations. channel conflict. partners. sales. William Clark Chris Fletcher Tiffani Bova David Mitchell
    • Scottish implications• VAR will be become an increasingly difficult business model and will evolve, potential to cloud service brokers• Speed and agility in sales and marketing will be rewarded 25
    • Navigating a Stormy Market ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012 David Mitchell, Research Director, GartnerThis presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or otherauthorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied,distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.