Technology Forecast 2012 Event was hosted by DLA Piper at their Edinburgh office. It was standing room only, with a huge audience. David Mitchell, Research Director at Gartner presented the annual forecast event for the 7th year. He provided a whistle stop tour of technology trends and key developments which will impact the industry in the short to medium term. Always informative with a humorous twist, this is a 'not to be missed opportunity' to re-assess how markets are likely to change, and what to look out for in 2012, and beyond, as we start the new year.

1. Navigating a Stormy Market
ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012
David Mitchell, Research Director, Gartner
david.mitchell@gartner.com
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other
authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied,
distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

2. Data Centres and Cloud
Application Development
IT Services
eCommerce
Social
Data Management

3. Data Centres and Cloud
By 2015, 40% of the
By 2015, the cloud most successful
will propel CIOs will use cloud
enterprises back to By 2015, 40% of net Through 2014, at
sourcing to cut least 50% of SaaS
a best-of-breed new business costs and generate
mind-set for process services will customers will
new revenue in experience higher
innovating and be delivered as order to outperform
differentiating the business process as than expected
competitors. costs.
ERP. a service (BPaaS).
Frances
Karamouzis Claudio Da Rold Robert DeSisto
Jim Shepherd

4. Data Centres and Cloud
By 2016, due to Through 2013, 60%
cloud computing, of enterprise IT
75% of IT By 2015, 30% of public cloud
organizations midsize adoption projects
without better IT businesses will will involve the By 2013, at least
demand adopt recovery-in- redeployment of 20% of
management will the-cloud services unchanged organizations using
to support IT By 2015, 40% of the
applications to IaaS SaaS deployments
Byend up the cloud
2015, spending most successful
or backward-
more on IT. operations will move them back
will propel CIOs will use cloud
compatible PaaS.
recovery. on-premises.
Through 2014, at
enterprises back to By 2015, 40% of net sourcing to cut
a best-of-breed new business least 50% of SaaS
Kurt Potter, Barbara costs and generate customers will
mind-set for process services will
John Morency new revenue in
Yefim Natis
Gomolski Sharon Mertz
experience higher
innovating and be delivered as order to outperform
differentiating the business process as than expected
competitors. costs.
ERP. a service (BPaaS).
Frances
Karamouzis Claudio Da Rold Robert DeSisto
Jim Shepherd

5. Data Centres and Cloud
Cloud adoption in By 2015, 30% of By 2016, 50% of
By 2016, due to Europe will be infrastructure as a 2013, 60%
Through organizations will
cloud computing,delayed by at least service (IaaS) source their UC on
of enterprise IT
75% of IT two years, due2015, 30% providers willpublic clouda utility subscription
By to of lose
organizations fragmentation of
the midsize the price war and projects
adoption model, up from less
without better ITregulationsbusinesses willexit the market.
and will involve the than 5% today.
By 2013, at least
demand privacy rules. recovery-in-
adopt redeployment of 20% of
management will the-cloud services unchanged organizations using
to support IT Frank Ridder 40% of the
By 2015,
applications to IaaS Steve Blood
Byend up the cloud
2015, spending SaaS deployments
more on IT. operations most successful
or backward- will move them back
will propel Paolo Malinverno CIOs will use cloud
compatible PaaS.
recovery. on-premises.
Through 2014, at
enterprises back to By 2015, 40% of net sourcing to cut
a best-of-breed new business least 50% of SaaS
Kurt Potter, Barbara costs and generate customers will
mind-set for process services will
John Morency new revenue in
Yefim Natis
Gomolski Sharon Mertz
experience higher
innovating and be delivered as order to outperform
differentiating the business process as than expected
competitors. costs.
ERP. a service (BPaaS).
Frances
Karamouzis Claudio Da Rold Robert DeSisto
Jim Shepherd

6. Scottish implications
• Cloud opportunities may be delayed by 2 years
due to regulation
• Cloud will generate highly variable business
outcomes
• Many applications will be deployed unchanged,
with a reduced opportunity for re-platform/re-
development projects
• Cloud providers need to be wary of the rush to
the bottom in IaaS
5

7. Application Development
Through 2016, By 2014, in new
organizations will websites targeted to
Through 2020, continue to spend mobile devices, the
attempts to displace more of their IT use of wrapped
browser JavaScript budget on By 2014, 30 of the HTML will have at
with proprietary application most popular 100 least 10 times the
client-side Web integration than on Web applications growth rate of
programming building new will work online or Adobe Flash and
languages will fail. applications. off. Microsoft Silverlight.
Eric Knipp Yefim Natis Tom Austin Gene Phifer

8. Application Development
By year-end 2013,
75% of new
By 2014, more than business
By 2015, 50% of 65% of user- By 2015, up to 15% applications will
business developed cloud of user identities will incorporate social
applications use by applications will be partly vetted and user styles,
managers and Through 2016,
employ advanced authenticated using By 2014, in new
conventions and
casual users will be organizations will
IMC technology to mobile location websites targeted to
information feeds
Through 2020, continue to spend
meet QoS services, up from mobile devices, the
for the user
via mobile devices.
attempts to displace more of their IT
requirements. less than 1% today. use of wrapped
experience.
browser JavaScript budget on By 2014, 30 of the HTML will have at
with proprietary
Christian application most popular 100 least 10 times the
client-side Web
Hestermann integrationPezzini
Massimo than on Web applications
Avivah Litan growth Sussin
Jenny rate of
programming building new will work online or Adobe Flash and
languages will fail. applications. off. Microsoft Silverlight.
Eric Knipp Yefim Natis Tom Austin Gene Phifer

9. Application Development
By 2016, most By 2015, 30% of
collaboration In 2015, more than users accessing By 2015, more than
applications will be half of new enterprise networks By year-end 2013,
70% of new sales
equally available on business or high-value Web 75% of new
application projects
desktops, mobile By 2014, morewill
applications than applications from willbusiness
be SaaS.
phones, tablets and
By 2015, 50% of leverageuser-
65% of event smartphones or
By 2015, up to 15% applications will
browsers.
business developed cloud
streams to improve tablets will use
of user identities will incorporate social
applications use by applications will
situation awareness biometric
be partly vetted and user styles,
Robert DeSisto
managers and Through 2016,
employdecision
and advanced authentication.
authenticated using By 2014, in new
conventions and
Monica Basso organizations will
IMC technology to mobile location websites targeted to
information feeds
casual users will be effectiveness.
Through 2020, continue to spend
meet QoS services, up from mobile devices, the
for the user
via mobile devices.
attempts to displace more of their IT
requirements. less than Allan
Ant 1% today. use of wrapped
experience.
browser JavaScript budget on
Roy Schulte By 2014, 30 of the HTML will have at
with proprietary
Christian application most popular 100 least 10 times the
client-side Web
Hestermann integrationPezzini
Massimo than on Web applications
Avivah Litan growth Sussin
Jenny rate of
programming building new will work online or Adobe Flash and
languages will fail. applications. off. Microsoft Silverlight.
Eric Knipp Yefim Natis Tom Austin Gene Phifer

10. Scottish implications
• Applications will need to work offline and online
• Applications will increasingly adopt social
techniques within them
• Application and platform security methods are
rapidly evolving
• Event-stream processing and in-memory
technology are technologies to watch
9

11. IT Services
By 2015, 80% of IT
By 2015, adoption organizations will
of "as a service" By 2015, 25% of
midsize businesses By 2016, 50% of reach resource
models will replace new integration breaking points,
15% of low-cost, in mature markets
will virtualize one- projects will involve under intense
competitive-parity- on-premises pressure to deliver
driven outsourcing third of their PCs,
over double the applications, e- the right project
deals. commerce trading resources just in
large-enterprise
rate. partners and cloud time.
services.
Frances
Karamouzis and Donna Fitzgerald et
Jim Longwood Jim Browning and
Mika Kitagawa Benoit Lheureux al

12. IT Services
By 2016, 20% of IT By 2016, most By 2015, 20% of the Through 2015,
organizations in collaboration market-leading IT security incidents
growth enterprises applications will be service providers will increase 25% or
will set a goal of equally available on not investing in more in
increasing grow- desktops, mobile industrialization organizations that
and-transform IT phones, tablets and through adopt BYOD
spending to 50% of browsers. demonstrated without reinvesting
their annual nonlinear revenue at least one-third of
expenditures. will be at risk. Bythe savings in IT
2015, 80% of
By 2015, adoption
of "as a service" By 2015, Basso
Monica 25% of security.
organizations will
midsize businesses By 2016, 50% of reach resource
models will replace
Kurt Potter, Barbara Sandraintegration
new Notardonato breaking points,
15% of low-cost, in mature markets
Gomolski will virtualize one- and Claudio Da
projects will involve Lawrence Orans
under intense
competitive-parity- Rold
on-premises and John Pescatore
pressure to deliver
driven outsourcing third of their PCs,
over double the applications, e- the right project
deals. commerce trading resources just in
large-enterprise
rate. partners and cloud time.
services.
Frances
Karamouzis and Donna Fitzgerald et
Jim Longwood Jim Browning and
Mika Kitagawa Benoit Lheureux al

13. Scottish implications
• Beware of margin crunch and XaaS substitution
effect
• Reliance on labor-based models is risky;
industrialization and automation
• Resource constraints in customers may become
an impediment to new business
12

14. eCommerce
By 2015, the
By 2014, customer marketing budget By year-end 2012,
fallout will drive allocated to more than 50% of
down customer By 2015, 50% of retaining customers greenfield social
satisfaction in 70% online customer and increasing commerce initiatives
of organizations that self-service search loyalty through will fail to drive
shift customer activities will be via customer service sales beyond what
support to a VA for at least will more than had been obtained
communities. 1,500 large double. from existing e-
enterprises. commerce activities.
Jenny Sussin and Kimberly Collins
Carol Rozwell Johan Jacobs and Jenny Sussin Praveen Sengar

15. eCommerce
By 2015, at least By 2014, refusing to By 2014,
25% of new CEOs communicate with organizations
at Fortune 500 customers via social integrating
manufacturers and channels will be as communities into
retailers will have harmful as ignoring customer support
deep supply chain emails or phone will realize cost
experience. calls is today. reductions ranging
from 10% to 50%.
By 2015, the
By 2014, customer Tohamy et al
Noha Jeffrey Mann,marketing budget
Carol By year-end 2012,
fallout will drive Rozwell allocated toMichael Maoz than 50% of
more
down customer By 2015, 50% of retaining customers greenfield social
satisfaction in 70% online customer and increasing commerce
of organizations that self-service search loyalty through initiatives will fail to
shift customer activities will be via customer service drive sales beyond
support to a VA for at least will more than what had been
communities. 1,500 large double. obtained from
enterprises. existing e-
commerce
Jenny Sussin and Kimberly Collins activities.
Carol Rozwell Johan Jacobs and Jenny Sussin
Praveen Sengar

16. Scottish implications
• Social and eCommerce segments are converging
• Social commerce, though, will have mixed results
• Community-based customer support will have
mixed impact on margin and CSAT
• Marketing needs to focus more on retention not
just acquisition
• Automated agents are worth watching as a
technology
15

17. Social
By year-end 2013,
By year-end 2013, 75% of new
By YE2012, over
B2B organizations business
60% of Fortune 500
using social CRM applications will
companies will
By year-end 2014, will represent 25% incorporate social
actively be
at least one social of all projects user styles,
engaging customers
network provider will worldwide, which is conventions and
with Facebook
become an an increase from information feeds
marketing, up from
insurance sales fewer than 10% in for the user
20% today
channel 2011 experience.
Adam Sarner
Juergen Weiss Ed Thompson Jenny Sussin

18. Social
By 2014, refusing to By 2014, less than
communicate with 20% of large
customers via social enterprises will
channels will be as block all access to
harmful as ignoring external social
emails or phone media, down from
calls is today. approximately 50%
in 2011. By year-end 2013,
By year-end 2013, 75% of new
By YE2012, over
Jeffrey Mann, Carol B2B organizations business
60% of Fortune 500
Rozwell using social CRM
Andrew Walls applications will
companies will
By year-end 2014, will represent 25% incorporate social
actively be
at least one social of all projects user styles,
engaging customers
network provider will worldwide, which is conventions and
with Facebook
become an an increase from information feeds
marketing, up from
insurance sales fewer than 10% in for the user
20% today
channel 2011 experience.
Adam Sarner
Juergen Weiss Ed Thompson Jenny Sussin

19. Scottish implications
• Social players will continue to diversify and seek
monetization opportunities
• Social is increasing in acceptance by the “suits”
in corporate IT
• Social CRM is a very active technology area
18

20. Data Management
Through 2015, Through 2015,
business analytics more than 90% of
needs will drive Through 2015, 85% business leaders By 2014, at least
70% of investments of Fortune 500 contend information 50% of midsize
in the expansion organizations will be is a strategic asset, businesses will
and modernization unable to exploit big yet fewer than 10% triple the storage
of information data for competitive will quantify its capacity that they
infrastructure. advantage. economic value. had in 2011.
Ted Friedman Steve Prentice Doug Laney Jie Zhang

21. Data Management
By 2016, in-memory Through 2016, Through 2016, 75% By 2016, 20% of
column-store spending on of CISOs who CIOs in regulated
database governing experience publicly industries will lose
management information must disclosed security their jobs for failing
systems will replace increase to five breaches and lack to implement the
25% of traditional times the current documented, tested discipline of
data warehouses level to be response plans will information
and online successful. be fired. governance
transaction
Through 2015, Through 2015, successfully.
processing
business analytics more than 90% of
applications.
needs will drive Ted Friedman
Through 2015, 85% Rob McMillan
business leaders By 2014, at least
70% of investments of Fortune 500 contend information Debra Logan
50% of midsize
in the expansion organizations will be is a strategic asset, businesses will
Donald Feinberg et
and modernization unable to exploit big yet fewer than 10% triple the storage
al
of information data for competitive will quantify its capacity that they
infrastructure. advantage. economic value. had in 2011.
Ted Friedman Steve Prentice Doug Laney Jie Zhang

22. Data Management
By 2015, 20% of the
revenue in data
By 2016, in-memory Through 2016, management Through 2016, 75% By 2016, 20% of
column-store spending on of CISOs who
technology markets CIOs in regulated
database governing be captured via
will experience publicly industries will lose
management information must disclosed security
nonperpetual their jobs for failing
systems will replace increase to five
licensing models, a and lack
breaches to implement the
25% of traditional times the current than documented, tested
more fivefold discipline of
data warehouses level to be response plans will
increase. information
and online successful. be fired. governance
transaction
Through 2015, Through 2015, successfully.
processing
business analytics Ted Friedman than 90% of
more
applications.
needs will drive Ted Friedman
Through 2015, 85% Rob McMillan
business leaders By 2014, at least
70% of investments of Fortune 500 contend information Debra Logan
50% of midsize
in the expansion organizations will be is a strategic asset, businesses will
Donald Feinberg et
and modernization unable to exploit big yet fewer than 10% triple the storage
al
of information data for competitive will quantify its capacity that they
infrastructure. advantage. economic value. had in 2011.
Ted Friedman Steve Prentice Doug Laney Jie Zhang

23. Scottish implications
• Increases in data volumes and the needs of
analytics will drive infrastructure spend
• In-memory technology and data security
technologies are worth watching
• Information management and governance spend
will need to increase, otherwise CIO tenure….
• Revenue models for information management
are changing
22

24. Sales and Marketing
By 2015, Amazon,
Google, Microsoft, By 2014, 60% of
Nokia, Baidu and By 2015, 70% of traditional IT By 2014, inside
Apple will collect branded distributors will sales capacity in
personally manufacturers will become cloud technology
identifiable implement e- aggregation providers will
transaction …on commerce to sell brokerages increase 50% to
10% of the direct to consumers, servicing SMBs drive speed and
population in creating significant through VAR responsiveness of
developed nations. channel conflict. partners. sales.
William Clark Chris Fletcher Tiffani Bova David Mitchell

25. Sales and Marketing
By 2015, 50% of By 2015, IT
the VAR channel marketers that
will disappear due adopt best practices
to its slow response in real-time
in satisfying major marketing will
technology provider outperform those
needs. that adhere to
By 2015, Amazon, traditional, slower
Google, Microsoft, By 2014, 60% of
processes.
Nokia, Baidu and By 2015, 70% of
Neil McMurchy traditional IT By 2014, inside
Apple will collect branded distributors will sales capacity in
personally manufacturers will become cloud
Richard Fouts technology
identifiable implement e- aggregation providers will
transaction …on commerce to sell brokerages increase 50% to
10% of the direct to consumers, servicing SMBs drive speed and
population in creating significant through VAR responsiveness of
developed nations. channel conflict. partners. sales.
William Clark Chris Fletcher Tiffani Bova David Mitchell

26. Scottish implications
• VAR will be become an increasingly difficult
business model and will evolve, potential to cloud
service brokers
• Speed and agility in sales and marketing will be
rewarded
25

27. Navigating a Stormy Market
ScotlandIS Technology Forecast 2012
David Mitchell, Research Director, Gartner
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other
authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied,
distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.