Robert W Baird is the premier financial institution tracking the uniform market. Here is their May Perspective on the outlook for uniform market and the industries we serve. It's good news!
Special thanks to Andrew Wittmann at Baird for allowing us to post.
UNIVERSAL HUMAN VALUES -Harmony in the Human Being
Baird Perspective on Uniform Industry: Good News
1. Business Services Research
June 3, 2011
Facility Services
Uniform Wearer Growth Remains Better Than Broader National Employment
Trends
Andrew J. Wittmann, CFA Action
awittmann@rwbaird.com Despite headline disappointment in the May BLS data, strong growth in
414.298.1898
uniform-wearing employment continues, with year-over-year growth rates
Justin P Hauke
. more than double the broader economy. We note that uniform-wearing industries
jhauke@rwbaird.com were slow to post employment gains earlier this cycle and have only recently begun
312.609.5485 adding headcount. Thus, we continue to see upside in uniform rental stocks as
incremental wearers boost utilization rates, with recent commodity price declines
providing additional support for earnings.
Please refer to Summary
Appendix - Important
• May employment disappoints but shouldn't be a surprise. Total nonfarm
Disclosures and payrolls increased by 54,000, well below expectations of +165,000 and consistent
Analyst Certification. with similar disappointing employment-related reports in recent weeks.
- Unemployment rate rose to 9.1% (versus the 8.9% consensus). Positively, the
spike in the unemployment rate was driven primarily by a surge in labor market
entrants (a positive).
• Baird's Add/Stop Index specific to uniform rental-related employment remains
healthy, but more modest than recent gains, increasing +26,000.
- Importantly, YOY job growth related to uniform wearers is increasing at
more than twice the rate of the economy as a whole and is now at its
highest level since 2006, a crucial point underpinning our positive view on
uniform stocks.
- Nonetheless, we note that May gains were below the +50,000-80,000 gains in
recent months.
• Macroeconomy likely still constructive for uniform rental stocks but recent
deceleration is disappointing. Our checks suggest moderating price competition
in uniform rental (some markets are even increasing), and anecdotal commentary
suggests uniform companies are beginning to see high-margin positive add/stops in
their business.
- In addition, recent declines in commodity cost pressures (especially
cotton) should provide additional support beyond fixed cost leverage.
• G&K (Outperform): We believe Street estimates, broadly, underappreciate
GKSR's underlying earnings growth potential from even modest top-line growth.
Combined with solid progress on the turn-around strategy, solid cash flow, and a
likely increase in return of capital to shareholders, we see relative upside to the
stock.
• Cintas (Outperform): Top-line momentum has accelerated, driving margin and
earnings leverage as previous investments in sales staff are paying off. In addition,
we believe last month's $500M bond offering could provide meaningful accretion if
deployed and we are encouraged by recent efforts to expand the company’s
higher-growth hygiene/chemicals business through strategic partnerships with
established industry suppliers (e.g., Diversey).
• UniFirst (Neutral): UniFirst continues to execute admirably, above peer levels.
However, we believe expectations for strong execution are largely priced into the
stock, increasing the risk, though we do see modest upside to shares.
2. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
Details
Remain Positive on Uniform Rental Stocks Despite
Disappointing Headline Employment Report
Despite headline disappointment in the May BLS data, strong growth rates in
uniform-wearing employment continues (and is accelerating), with growth rates more than
double that of the broader economy. We note that uniform-wearing industries were slow
to post employment gains earlier this cycle and have only recently begun adding
headcount.
Indeed, job growth in uniform-related wearers is now increasing at more than twice
the rate of the economy as a whole and is now at its highest level since 2006, a
crucial point underpinning our positive view on uniform stocks. The figure below
demonstrates this dynamic, a point that we stress is not reflected in a cursory view of the
data.
Baird Add/Stop Index (YOY Change)
3.00%
2.00% BLS Employment
1.00% Baird Add/Stop Index
0.00%
-1.00%
-2.00%
-3.00%
-4.00%
-5.00% Growth in Baird Add/Stop
-6.00% Index employment is
outpacing total NFP
-7.00% employment - first time
since early 2007
-8.00%
Jan-07
Mar-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
Thus we continue to see upside in uniform rental stocks as incremental wearers at
existing rental accounts boost utilization rates, generating highly profitable incremental
margins, with recent commodity price declines providing additional support for earnings.
Indeed, cotton prices have declined 23% since their March peak, a statistic which we
believe is unlikely reflected in most Street estimates.
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
3. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
U.S. Cotton Prices, spot ($/lb)
$2.50 160%
U.S. Cotton (spot), $/lb 140%
U.S. Cotton (Spot), YOY (right)
$2.00 120%
100%
$1.50 80%
60%
$1.00 40%
20%
$0.50 0%
-20%
$0.00 -40%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: FactSet Research Systems
Perhaps more importantly, we believe the significant operating leverage inherent in the
businesses can well-offset input cost pressures in even a modest labor market recovery.
We believe significant excess capacity remains at the public uniform companies which
should provide opportunity to improve fixed asset utilization rates as employment further
improves (even modestly).
We also note that recent employment momentum has been slow to materialize in organic
growth rates so far. To date, organic growth has been led by lower-margin new account
gains and service additions rather than by higher-margin additions to existing accounts.
We believe the labor data since February could potentially provide the next leg in
earnings growth for the uniform stocks and we have begun to hear anecdotal
commentary suggesting improvement in add/stop (i.e., additions at existing accounts)
rates. However, if employment growth continues to decelerate, we could turn more
cautious in our recommendation.
Historically, the uniform sector has been an effective way to invest in early-cycle stocks
(the stocks historically bottom 12 months before an employment inflection) or to play an
expanding economy (stocks also tend to outperform mid to late cycle when the rate of job
growth is higher). Indeed, until recently, stock performance at the uniform rental
companies had lagged as the economy moved into more advanced stages of the
recovery, following strong outperformance in the stocks prior to the August 2009
employment bottom, confirming the stock's early-cycle nature.
However, since February the market has generally been positively surprised with the
monthly jobs numbers (with the exception of this month's disappointing release). This
phenomenon has historically allowed for uniform stock outperformance for a period of
roughly 13-24 months. For perspective, current cycle employment bottomed in
September 2009 (19 months ago). (Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future
results.)
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
4. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
Uniform Stock Performance
One-Month Percentage Price Change YTD Percentage Price Change
C intas C intas
U n iFirs t S & P 500
U n iform Ind e x U niform Ind ex
S & P 500 G & K S ervices
G & K S e rv ic es U n iFirs t
-8% -6% -4% -2 % 0% 2% 4% -10 % -5% 0% 5% 10% 1 5% 20%
Three-Month Percentage Price Change Trailing 12 Months Percentage Price Change
C in tas G & K S ervic es
U niform Inde x C in tas
S & P 500 U niform Index
G & K S e rv ic es S & P 500
U niFirst U niFirs t
-1 0% -5% 0% 5% 10 % 15% 20% 0% 5% 1 0% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35 %
Source: FactSet Research Systems
Indeed, now that we are seeing consistent employment gains within uniform-wearing
sectors, we believe uniform rental companies have become a more compelling
investment (and, indeed, offer lower beta exposure to broader macroeconomic
headwinds given the businesses' recurring revenue stream and solid free cash flow
generation). The YTD share performance at in particular (the largest, and most liquid of
the uniform rental stocks), suggests to us that the late cycle thesis in the uniform stocks
may be gaining momentum, providing conviction in our Outperform rating in those stocks.
We also note that valuation multiples for the group appear to have stabilized, particularly
at (now posting modest expansion), following several years of decline, which we believe
suggests moderate upside now that employment growth rates are improving within our
Add/Stop Index. We also believe that should trade at a premium to the group, which we
believe is justified by the company's outsized earnings growth potential versus peers
resulting from its on-going turnaround strategy focused on improving margins to
peer-levels.
trades at a discount to peers, which we believe reflects a dual-class share structure and
limited float, but is consistent with its historical average (indeed, a slight premium on an
earnings basis), which we believe captures 's strong recent execution, balanced by
emerging company-specific margin pressures from inventory .
Uniform Industry Valuation
Price Price Target Rating EV/EBITDA, ftm P/E
Company Ticker FTM AVG FTM AVG
Cintas CTAS $31.99 $35 O 7.9x 9.0x 17.5x 18.7x
G&K Services GKSR $31.10 $40 O 7.3x 8.2x 16.0x 17.1x
UniFirst UNF $51.48 $60 N 5.7x 5.8x 14.1x 13.6x
Average: 7.0x 7.7x 15.9x 16.5x
As of 06/03/2011
Source: FactSet Research Systems and Baird estimates
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
5. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
May Employment Report Disappoints, Consistent with Recent
Derivative Data
Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 54,000 in May, well below expectations of +165,000
and consistent with similar disappointing employment-related reports in recent weeks (in
other words, the report was not surprising, but confirmatory). Private sector payrolls also
retreated, posting a +83,000 gain, well below the +251,000 gain in April, which was the
largest single month gain in the report since February 2006. Furthermore, economists
predict seasonally lower employment gains in the data in 2H11, as the BLS' birth/death
adjustment factor (an adjustment to the data to reflect small firms not captured in the
survey data) is expected to be more modest in 2H11.
Forward-looking employment indicators, however, suggest stability, with total average
hours worked holding constant at 34.3 hours in May (essentially constant since
February). The private employment diffusion index also declined to 53.6 (from 65.0 in
April). Note, however that a reading above 50 indicates sequential improvement in the
data. Thus, while the lower sequential reading indicates that employment acceleration
has slowed, overall growth rates remain positive (and the outlook stable).
Baird Add/Stop Index Growth Outpacing Broader Employment Gains Despite
Disappointing Headline Data
Baird's Add/Stop Index specific to uniform rental-related employment remains generally
healthy; however, we saw more modest gains this month with our Index increasing
+26,000. The May gains were below the +50,000-80,000 gains we have seen in recent
months; however, the general trend in the data remains positive, with average
year-to-date employment gains in 2011 consistent with previous cyclical averages of
+65,000 and +54,000 (see figure below).
Baird Add/Stop Index
4% 200
2011 Average = 62k
Average = 65k Average = 54k
2% 100
0% 0
-2% (100)
Cycle Average = 38k
-4% (200)
-6% Baird Add/Stop Indicator Monthly Job Gains/Losses (000), right (300)
Baird Add/Stop Indicator YOY Growth Rate, left
-8% (400)
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
In addition, we note that the YOY growth rate in Add/Stop employment categories
continues to outpace the broader economy for the first time since late 2006/early
2007 (and is now more than double the rate of general economic growth). This is a
critical element of the data as uniform employment has lagged broader employment
categories throughout the recovery until recently (indeed, until February 2011). April
Add/Stop employment increased 1.6% YOY versus the just 0.7% YOY gain in total
non-farm payroll employment, which is a key reason why we remain constructive on the
uniform stocks.
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
6. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
Employment gains were also positive across most sectors within our Add/Stop Index with
the exception of construction and repair and maintenance, both of which have been drags
to the data over the past several months. Gains were particularly concentrated within the
Food Services and Drinking Places industry (similar to last month) which has been a key
theme throughout this recovery (we believe this has also aided Direct Sale purchases at
the uniform rental companies). We also think that gains in Food Services and Drinking
Places should benefit many of the uniform rental companies' ancillary offerings, such as
chemicals, hygiene products, shop towels and linens. For perspective, ancillary offerings
at the uniform rental companies encompass roughly 50% of total rental revenue and are
meaningful parts of the overall business, though garment rental is still the largest
individual category.
The figure below shows the absolute job gains/losses within several of the primary
uniform-wearing industries comprising our Index over the last month.
Baird Add/Stop Index Component Industries: 1-Month Employment Change (000s)
Specialty Trade Contractors (7)
Repair and Maintenance (6)
W holesale Trade - Nondurable Goods (1)
Gasoline Stations (1)
Chemicals 0
W holesale Trade - Durable Goods 2
Truck Transportation 2
Fabricated Metal Products 3
Machinery 4
Food and Beverage Stores 5
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 6
Food Manufacturing 7
Food Services and Drinking Places 14
1-month Employment Change (000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baird Research
Recent Derivative Employment Data Has Been Similarly Disappointing
Similar to this morning's BLS report, employment data over the past few weeks has been
generally disappointing, indicating slowing momentum and still-elevated new jobless
claims.
For example, this week’s ADP employment report indicated net job growth of just
38,000 in May, well below expectations (+180,000) and a reduction from average gains of
~200,000 since December. Recall that the ADP report tracks employment gains/losses in
the U.S. private sector only.
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
7. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls, by Firm Size
400 117,000
200
115,000
-
113,000
(200)
111,000
(400)
Large (499+)
Medium (50-499) 109,000
(600) Small (1-49)
Total Employment, millions (right)
107,000
(800)
(1,000) 105,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: ADP Employment Report
Goods-producing sectors (greater uniform customer exposure) also moderated,
posting their first decline since October 2010, falling by 10,000. Job growth in the
service-producing sector also moderated significantly, increasing 48,000 in May versus a
gain of 141,000 in April (and +165,000 in March). Job gains in May continue to be
concentrated among small (1-49 employees) and medium (50-499 employees) firms with
large firms posting a modest decline.
Initial jobless claims remain elevated with the 4-week moving average still above the
key 400,000 level this month, which is viewed as indicative of sustainable job growth.
Furthermore, claims have generally overshot expectations, which is concerning. Still,
initial jobless claims are 34% below their prior cycle peak of 658,750 in March 2009 and
did post a modest sequential over the past month (see figure below).
Initial Jobless Claims
700,000
Initial Jobless Claims (4-wk MA)
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11
Note: The solid red line indicates the level of jobless claims historically associated with net employment growth
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Continuing jobless claims held steady in May (despite the increase in the
unemployment rate), with the 4-week moving average increasing modestly from 3.727
million at the end of April to 3.737 million currently. This week’s continuing claims
decreased by 1,000, suggesting little change in structural unemployment rates.
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
8. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
Continuing Jobless Claims
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Jan-67 Jan-72 Jan-77 Jan-82 Jan-87 Jan-92 Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-07
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
The unemployment rate (which is based on a separate survey) increased 10 bps
sequentially to 9.1% in May (versus expectations that the unemployment rate would
decline to 8.9%), though we note can be viewed positively, as the increase was
accompanied by an increase in the labor force--potentially indicating better job prospects.
Indeed, 272,000 people entered the labor force in May, the highest monthly increase
since August 2010. The U-6 unemployment rate (which includes involuntary part-time
employment and discouraged workers – i.e., unemployed workers who have ceased
looking for employment) also declined by 10 bps in May to 15.8%, and has steadily
declined from a rate of 17% in November 2010.
Despite recent employment gains, the unemployment rate remains well above the
previous cyclical peaks of 6.3% in June 2003 and 7.8% in June 1992. Eventually,
declines from this high unemployment rate will be a large opportunity for the uniform
companies, in our view.
Civilian Unemployment Rate (persons 16 years of age and older)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Note: The solid grey bars indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Uniform Stock Investment Perspectives
• We rate G&K Services (-$31.10; $40 price target) at Outperform. We believe Street
estimates, broadly, GKSR's underlying earnings growth potential from even modest
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
9. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
top-line growth. Furthermore, G&K reported better-than-expected F3Q11 earnings in
May, driven by strong top-line results (above our estimate) and much
better-than-expected margin expansion. Investors are gaining confidence in
management's targeted “10/10” plan to achieve 10% operating margins and ROIC by
F2014, which should unlock material value creation over the next several years.
Combined with solid cash flow, and a likely increase in return of capital to shareholders
(likely through a dividend increase later this summer), we see relative upside to the
stock.
Against this backdrop, we continue to believe investors are best served by taking a
multi-year look at GKSR’s ability to create value by bridging the profitability gap
versus peers over time. In addition, we believe outsized earnings growth potential at
GKSR relative to peers continues to justify a growth multiple for the stock. Our $40
price target is supported by our DCF analysis which incorporates management’s
long-term profitability targets and by the application of an 8.0x forward EV/EBITDA
(in line with the stock’s historical average multiple of 8.2x and a slight premium to
peers and consistent with what we see as above-average earnings growth
potential). Our price target also implies a 17.9x NTM P/E. Risks to our price target
include a highly competitive industry, employment trends, energy price fluctuations
and acquisition integration.
• We rate Cintas (CTAS-$31.66; $35 price target) at Outperform. Top-line momentum
has accelerated, driving margin and earnings leverage as previous investments in
sales staff have begun to pay off. Although rising commodity costs remain a source of
caution (though have recently declined), with broad-based top-line improvement,
increasing capital allocation towards M&A, and moderating pricing pressure, we
believe CTAS offers lower-risk leverage to a slowly improving employment market. In
addition, we believe a $500M bond offering in May 2011 could also provide meaningful
accretion (we estimate up to $0.12 in F2012) from share repurchases or other capital
deployments and we are encouraged by recent efforts to expand the company’s
higher-growth hygiene/chemicals business through strategic partnerships with
established industry suppliers (e.g., Diversey).
Our $35 price target assumes modest (essentially flat) multiple expansion to 7.7x
FTM EBITDA, below the company’s historical average of 9.2x but which we believe
more fully reflects the industry’s challenging fundamentals and a slower growth rate,
with downside supported by the company’s $500M share repurchase authorization.
We also see upside to our price target to the extent CTAS can deploy its balance
sheet toward additional accretive opportunities. Risks include a highly competitive
market, employment trends, energy and scrap paper price fluctuations.
• We rate UniFirst (UNF-$51.10; $60 price target) at Neutral. UniFirst continues to
execute at a very high level, which we believe was well appreciated by the market
throughout the downturn. However, with margin pressures building from (still high)
commodity costs and the company's inventory cycle versus peers providing a
counterbalance to cyclical tailwinds at GKSR/CTAS, we view risk/reward as balanced.
That being said, we do see modest upside to the stock.
Our $60 price target assumes modest multiple expansion to 6.1x FTM EBITDA, a
modest premium to the stock’s 5.8x average and current levels, recognizing the
improving investment landscape and UNF's recent performance versus peers but
balanced by what we see as emerging risk. Risks include a highly competitive
industry, employment trends, energy price fluctuations, acquisition integration risks,
and 10:1 super-voting insider shares.
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
10. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification
Rating and Price Target History for: Cintas Corporation (CTAS) as of 06-02-2011
07/16/08 09/19/08 12/18/08 12/22/08 06/01/09 09/23/09 12/23/09 02/17/10 07/21/10 09/22/10 12/22/10
O:$36 O:$37 O:$35 O:$31 N:$27 U:$28 U:$26 U:$22 N:$28 N:$30 N:$32
35
30
25
20
15
10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2
2009 2010 2011
03/14/11 03/23/11
O:$34 O:$35
Created by BlueMatrix
Rating and Price Target History for: G&K Services, Inc. (GKSR) as of 06-02-2011
08/13/08 10/07/08 10/29/08 12/18/08 04/29/09 06/01/09 08/07/09 09/23/09 10/28/09 01/27/10 04/28/10
N:$36 N:$32 N:$23 N:$21 N:$26 N:$22 N:$21 U:$21 N:$23 N:$26 N:$28
40
32
24
16
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2
2009 2010 2011
06/15/10 08/18/10 11/02/10 01/19/11 02/02/11 05/03/11
N:$23 N:$24 N:$30 O:$37 O:$38 O:$40
Created by BlueMatrix
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Robert W. Baird & Co.
11. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
Rating and Price Target History for: UniFirst Corporation (UNF) as of 06-02-2011
07/03/08 10/30/08 06/01/09 06/02/09 07/02/09 09/23/09 10/29/09 01/07/10 04/01/10 07/01/10 10/20/10
N:$53 O:$38 N:$37 N:$36 N:$39 U:$42 U:$43 O:$59 O:$60 O:$51 O:$54
60
50
40
30
20
10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2
2009 2010 2011
01/05/11 01/19/11 03/30/11
O:$57 N:$58 N:$60
Created by BlueMatrix
1 Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of CTAS, GKSR and UNF .
Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking
related compensation from the company or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.
Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader
U.S. equity market over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity
market over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted
basis the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12 months.
Risk Ratings: L - Lower Risk - Higher-quality companies for investors seeking capital appreciation or income with
an emphasis on safety. Company characteristics may include: stable earnings, conservative balance sheets, and
an established history of revenue and earnings. A - Average Risk - Growth situations for investors seeking capital
appreciation with an emphasis on safety. Company characteristics may include: moderate volatility, modest
balance-sheet leverage, and stable patterns of revenue and earnings. H - Higher Risk - Higher-growth situations
appropriate for investors seeking capital appreciation with the acceptance of risk. Company characteristics may
include: higher balance-sheet leverage, dynamic business environments, and higher levels of earnings and price
volatility. S - Speculative Risk - High-growth situations appropriate only for investors willing to accept a high
degree of volatility and risk. Company characteristics may include: unpredictable earnings, small capitalization,
aggressive growth strategies, rapidly changing market dynamics, high leverage, extreme price volatility and
unknown competitive challenges.
Valuation, Ratings and Risks. The recommendation and price target contained within this report are based on a
time horizon of 12 months but there is no guarantee the objective will be achieved within the specified time horizon.
Price targets are determined by a subjective review of fundamental and/or quantitative factors of the issuer, its
industry, and the security type. A variety of methods may be used to determine the value of a security including,
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http://www.rwbaird.com/research-insights/research/coverage/research-disclosure.aspx .
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12. Facility Services
June 3, 2011
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this investment research report is classified as objective.
Robert W. Baird Limited ("RWBL") is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license.
RWBL is regulated by the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") under UK laws and those laws may differ from
Australian laws. This document has been prepared in accordance with FSA requirements and not Australian laws.
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Robert W. Baird & Co.