Cameron And Obama- What the Poll Tea Leaves Show

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Julia Clark is head of political research at MORI. Here are the slides from the Coventry Conversation she gave on 15th April 2009.

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  • Cameron And Obama- What the Poll Tea Leaves Show

    1. 1. Obama and Cameron: What the poll ‘tea leaves’ show Julia Clark Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI [email_address]
    2. 2. Some quick fundamentals about politics in Britain Source: Ipsos MORI
    3. 3. Electoral Arithmetic <ul><li>Core vote for Labour - 30% (tested 1983) </li></ul><ul><li>Core vote for Tories - 30% (tested 1997) </li></ul><ul><li>Core vote for Others - 20% (tested 1989) </li></ul><ul><li>Total 80% </li></ul><ul><li>Floating Voters = 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Marginal Constituencies = 20% </li></ul><ul><li>20% x 20% = 4% x c. 25 million = c. 1 million voters </li></ul>Source: Ipsos MORI
    4. 4. 10% decide whether to vote - or not - on the final day (and 19% in the last week) In the first week Within the last week Before the campaign began Around the middle Within the last 24 hours Q When did you decide which party to vote for? Base: Voted in the General Election (1,399) 18+, 7-11 April 2005 Source: MORI
    5. 5. General Election Turnout Since 1945 % Source: Ipsos MORI 18-24s
    6. 6. But WHY? Where have all the voters gone? Source: Ipsos MORI
    7. 7. Not Interested in Politics?? June 1973 Q How interested would you say you are in politics? % Very/fairly interested % Not particularly/at all interested Base: c.2,000 British/UK adults 18+ Mar 1991 Apr 1997 Source: MORI/JRRT/Electoral Commission, Times, FT May 2001 April 2005
    8. 8. What would make political parties more appealing? Q Which two or three of the following changes to political parties would help to make political parties more appealing to you? Making better use of internet/ information technology Making constituency offices more inviting / interesting to visit Working more with single-issue organisations Acting more as social organisations Allowing interested people to influence policy more Leading more campaigns around local issues Drawing party candidates from a wider cross-section of society Taking the time to talk to people about their organisation and explaining their values Parties would listen more to the public Involving people more in local decision making Source: Ipsos MORI/ Young Foundation Base: 973 British adults 15+, 31.8-7.9.06
    9. 9. Involve people locally, you say?
    10. 10. So: The Obama Effect
    11. 11. Good ratings Source: www.pollingreport.com
    12. 12. Americans think world leaders respect Obama Source: www.pollingreport.com
    13. 13. Just 14% of Americans think America’s image has got worse under Obama Worse Better Same Unsure (1%) Q Under Obama, do you think America's image in the rest of the world has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same ? Base: N=1,000 adults nationwide, March 26-29, 2009. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll.
    14. 14. Obama is doing well… <ul><li>Pew data indicates that between 2002-2008, favourable opinion of the US declined in 14 of 19 countries polled </li></ul><ul><li>Obama highly trusted on economy (71% [ Gallup] ) – compared to 46% trusting the Brown/Darling team </li></ul><ul><li>Americans’ public approval for Obama’s handling of foreign policy has gone from 54% in Feb to 61% in March (Gallup) </li></ul><ul><li>79% of Americans think people in other countries will have a more positive view of the US because of Obama (CNN/ORC) </li></ul>
    15. 15. So what can British politicians take away from all this?
    16. 16. A quick overview of where things stand here
    17. 17. The economy will be the most important election issue for GE 2010 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month +28 -46 -4 -29 -56 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
    18. 18. Fear of redundancy (amongst full-time workers) How concerned if at all would you say you are about the possibility of being made redundant or becoming unemployed over the next few months? Very concerned Don’t know Not at all concerned Base: 461 British adults in full-time work, 16th-18th January 2009 Fairly concerned Not very concerned Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor January 2009 October 2008 Very concerned Don’t know Not at all concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Base: 452 British adults in full-time work, 17th-19th October 2008 Total concerned = 43% Total concerned = 49%
    19. 19. The economy, stupid… Base: 995 British adults 18+, 19 th – 24 th February 2009 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Unemployment Economy Crime/law and order Inflation/prices Education/Schools Top mentions % NHS Race relations/immigration Housing Morality/Individual Behaviour Change since Jan -3 -2 -1 -1 +1 -1 +2 +2 Defence/Foreign Affairs/ Terrorism Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index -2 +4
    20. 20. Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends (current top 5) Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ NHS Crime/ Law & Order Race / immi-gration Economy Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Unemployment
    21. 21. Issues Facing Britain: Economy vs. Unemployment vs. Inflation/Prices Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Howard becomes Tory Leader Cameron becomes Tory Leader Brown becomes PM Pound at 15- year high against dollar Sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US Northern Rock nationalised Stock Market falls Global Recession and Russian Financial crisis Highest score since 1992. Most important issue for the first time Inflation rate hits 16 year peak Inflation/ prices Unemployment Economy What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
    22. 22. Issues Facing Britain: NHS / Hospitals / Healthcare Howard becomes Tory Leader Cameron becomes Tory Leader Brown Becomes PM General Election – “Battle of Margaret’s shoulder” London Bombs Hewitt heckled at UNISON conference – fears over NHS job cuts Blair tells doctors “not enough” has been done for the NHS – allocates extra £20 billion. Report says waiting lists have doubled under Labour Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more nurses, 40 new hospitals and development of foundation trusts as part of NHS plan Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Blair – “We have under funded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for it” – BBC NHS day Lowest score since December 1985 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
    23. 23. Issues Facing Britain: Defence / Foreign Affairs / International terrorism Howard becomes Tory Leader Cameron becomes Tory Leader Brown becomes PM 9/11 Foot and Mouth crisis London Bombs War in Iraq General Election - extra £400 million allocated for defence budget War in Kosovo Failed terror attacks in London and Glasgow Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
    24. 24. Issues Facing Britain: Crime / Law & Order / Violence / Vandalism / ASB Howard becomes Tory Leader Cameron becomes Tory Leader Brown Becomes PM 9/11 Fuel Protests Blair activates civil contingencies machinery to deal with spiralling street crime Prison overcrowding reaches record levels May day riots Tory election pledge of 40,000 more police Foreign prisoners scandal – Clarke is sacked Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Rhys Jones and Gary Newlove murdered What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
    25. 25. Issues Facing Britain: Race Relations / Immigration / Immigrants Howard becomes Tory Leader Cameron becomes Tory Leader Brown becomes PM 9/11 Foreign prisoners furore Race riots in Burnley, Oldham, and Bradford Sangatte detention centre constantly in the news throughout 2002. Anthony Walker murdered in Liverpool The Met publishes its first Race Equality Scheme under the terms of the legislative response to the Stephen Lawrence Inquiry. Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
    26. 26. Issues Facing Britain: Education / Schools London Bombs Introduction of means-tested tuition fees Labour’s second term - pledge to improve failing secondary schools Fuel Protests City academies introduced to combat entrenched failure in some urban schools Education and Inspections Bill limits the power of LAs to open new schools Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Howard becomes Tory Leader Cameron becomes Tory Leader Brown becomes PM Lowest score since Dec 1985 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
    27. 27. Issues Facing Britain: Pollution / Environment Cameron’s “Vote Blue, go Green” campaign at 2006 local elections 9/11 London Bombs Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic cloud reaches northern Spain Wettest Autumn since records began – widespread flooding across the UK EC proposes carbon emission cuts of 20% by 2020 Hurricane in Kensal Rise Howard becomes Tory Leader Cameron becomes Tory Leader Brown becomes PM Stern report Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
    28. 28. Voting intention
    29. 29. Voting Intentions Jan 03 – March 09 (all certain to vote) Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter (42%) (32%) (14%) How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Howard elected (Nov 03) 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
    30. 30. Conservative vote share including margins of error Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention 2005 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (Jun 07) 42% How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
    31. 31. Labour vote share including margins of error 2005 General Election Brown as PM (Jun 07) Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 32% Cameron elected (Dec 05) In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
    32. 32. Liberal Democrat vote share including margins of error Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 2005 General Election Brown as PM (Jun 07) Clegg elected (Dec 07) 14% Cameron elected (Dec 05) In an effort to more accurately represent the findings from political polls, Ipsos MORI has included the margins of error in our graphical representations of voting intention How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
    33. 33. Leads and error margins Conservative lead Labour lead General Election ’05 (Labour majority of 66 seats) Est. Labour lead required for a Labour overall majority Est. Cons’ve lead required for a Cons’ve overall majority Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
    34. 34. Net satisfaction with new Prime Ministers: Thatcher/Major vs. Blair/Brown BLACK WEDNESDAY GE 1992 Net satisfaction MAJOR / How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? THATCHER / NEW PM Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone GEN. ELEC SPECULATION Number of months from becoming Prime Minister BANK ‘BAILOUT’ #1 BLAIR BROWN
    35. 35. What about Cameron? Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2009) Net satisfied HAGUE DUNCAN SMITH HOWARD Number of months from becoming leader CAMERON How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Note: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Note: methods change for Cameron; see below
    36. 36. Best party on economy Which party do you think has the best policies on managing the economy; the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 15 th -17 th August 2008 January 2009 Liberal Democrats Labour Conservatives Other Don’t know August 2008 Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats Other Don’t know Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 16 th -18 th January 2009 Conservative lead = +15 Conservative lead = +1
    37. 37. Looking forward (the ‘tea leaves’) <ul><li>We will have a Conservative government in 2010… </li></ul><ul><li>AND a new Prime Minister: PM David Cameron </li></ul><ul><li>Cameron will need to take lessons from Obama (change of govt, unstable economy, int’l conflicts) </li></ul><ul><li>Election 2010: Role of new media and blogs – how far can Cameron’s team model themselves on the Blue State people? </li></ul>
    38. 38. THANK YOU QUESTIONS?

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