Climate change and the outlook for cassava bellagio nov 2010

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Presentation made by Andy Jarvis in Bellagio, Italy at the Second Strategic Meeting of the Global Cassava Partnership for the 21st Century on the 2nd November, 2010.

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Climate change and the outlook for cassava bellagio nov 2010

  1. 1. Climate change and the outlook for Cassava Andy Jarvis and Julian Ramirez
  2. 2. Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
  3. 3. Global Climate Models (GCMs) • 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology • Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future • Run using different emissions scenarios
  4. 4. So, what do they say?
  5. 5. Temperatures rise….
  6. 6. Changes in rainfall…
  7. 7. -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Cumulated precipitation anomaly (mm) A1b Cumulatedtemperatureanomaly(ºC)A1b Angola Ghana India Malawi Mozambique Uganda Tanzania Nigeria Congo 1870 Baseline 2020 modeling time-limit 2050 modeling time-limit 2099 modeling time-limit
  8. 8. TRENDS IN CLIMATE FOR CASSAVA GROWING ENVIRONMENTS
  9. 9. Climate changes in cassava growing environments 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 Change in precipitation (mm) Changeintemperature(°C) Australasia Caribbean Central Africa Central America Eastern Africa South America Southern Africa Western Africa NGA THA IDN BRA LBR CRI COL MWI
  10. 10. •Crops develop more quickly in higher temperatures Pritchard and Amthor 2005
  11. 11. Cassava – an exception to the rule? •In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree •For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
  12. 12. Impacts of climate change to food security • Lobell et al. looked at impacts of climate change on food security • Cassava clearly highlighted as suffering least among many staples • Particular opportunities as an alternative crop for southern Africa
  13. 13. Nothing new!
  14. 14. The Model: EcoCrop It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… …and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature… • So, how does it work?
  15. 15. Current suitability Growing season (days) 240 Killing temperature (°C) 0 Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 15.0 Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 22.0 Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 32.0 Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 45.0 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 300 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 800 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 2200 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 2800
  16. 16. Current climatic constraint
  17. 17. Future suitability and change (2020s)
  18. 18. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC Crop resilience improvement Changeinsuitableareas[>80%](%) Cropped lands Non-cropped lands Global suitable areas Heat tolerance Cold tolerance Breeding priorities 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% None +5% +10% +15% +20% +25% Crop resilience improvement Changeinsuitableareas[>80%](%) Cropped lands Non-cropped lands Global suitable areas Waterlogging tolerance Drought tolerance
  19. 19. …….and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -2.5% -2% -1.5% -1% -0.5% None +0.5% +1% +1.5% +2% +2.5% Mejora en la resiliencia de los cultivos Cambioenáreasadaptables [>80%](%) Áreas cultivadas Áreas no-cultivadas Total áreas adaptables Toleracia a sequias Toleracia a inundación 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -2.5% -2% -1.5% -1% -0.5% None +0.5% +1% +1.5% +2% +2.5% Mejora en la resiliencia de los cultivos Cambioenáreasadaptables [>80%](%) Áreas cultivadas Áreas no-cultivadas Total áreas adaptables Toleracia a sequias Toleracia a inundación 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Ropmin Ropmax Not benefited Áreasbeneficiadas(milliónde hectáreas) Áreas cultivadas actualmente Áreas no-cultivadas actualmente
  20. 20. …….and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC Mejoramiento en la resiliencia del cultivo Cambioenáreasadaptables [>80%](%) Áreas cultivadas Áreas no-cultivadas Total áreas adaptables Toleracia al calor Toleracia al frío 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC Mejoramiento en la resiliencia del cultivo Cambioenáreasadaptables [>80%](%) Áreas cultivadas Áreas no-cultivadas Total áreas adaptables Toleracia al calor Toleracia al frío 0 1 1 2 2 3 Topmin Topmax Not benefited Áreasbeneficiadas(millóndehectáreas) Áreas cultivadas actualmente Áreas no-cultivadas actualmente
  21. 21. A bright future for cassava?
  22. 22. CHANGE IN SUITABILITY FOR CASSAVA - 2050 Negative Positive
  23. 23. CHANGE IN SUITABILITY FOR MAIZE - 2050 Negative Positive Contrasting responses between maize and cassava: 2-3oC temp rises, changes in prec
  24. 24. A big unknown….
  25. 25. Change in Green Mite pressure to 2020
  26. 26. Changes in Whitefly prevalence to 2020
  27. 27. Areas for research • CO2 impacts on cassava • Climate change impacts on quality…and toxicity
  28. 28. Pests and disease response • Sound experimental multi-environment trials • Coupled with modelling • Allowing us to understand thresholds •Direct damage to reproductive cells (e.g. rice spikelet sterility)

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