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Climate change and the outlook for cassava bellagio nov 2010

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Presentation made by Andy Jarvis in Bellagio, Italy at the Second Strategic Meeting of the Global Cassava Partnership for the 21st Century on the 2nd November, 2010.

Presentation made by Andy Jarvis in Bellagio, Italy at the Second Strategic Meeting of the Global Cassava Partnership for the 21st Century on the 2nd November, 2010.

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    Climate change and the outlook for cassava bellagio nov 2010 Climate change and the outlook for cassava bellagio nov 2010 Presentation Transcript

    • Climate change and the outlook for Cassava
      Andy Jarvis and Julian Ramirez
    • Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
    • Global Climate Models (GCMs)
      21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology
      Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future
      Run using different emissions scenarios
    • So, what do they say?
    • Temperatures rise….
    • Changes in rainfall…
    • TRENDS IN CLIMATE FOR CASSAVA GROWING ENVIRONMENTS
    • Climate changes in cassava growing environments
      • Crops develop more quickly in higher temperatures
      Pritchard and Amthor 2005
    • Cassava – an exception to the rule?
      • In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree
      • For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C
      Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
    • Impacts of climate change to food security
      Lobell et al. looked at impacts of climate change on food security
      Cassava clearly highlighted as suffering least among many staples
      Particular opportunities as an alternative crop for southern Africa
    • Nothing new!
    • The Model: EcoCrop
      So, how does it work?
      It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…
      …and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
    • Current suitability
    • Current climatic constraint
    • Future suitability and change (2020s)
    • Breeding priorities
    • …….and for Latin America?Drought or flooding tolerance
      2.23m Ha of current production
      2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
      30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance
      1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint
    • …….and for Latin America?Heat or cold tolerance
      2.23m Ha of current production
      2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
      27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance
    • A bright future for cassava?
    • CHANGE IN SUITABILITY FOR CASSAVA - 2050
      Negative
      Positive
    • CHANGE IN SUITABILITY FOR MAIZE - 2050
      Negative
      Positive
      Contrasting responses between maize and cassava: 2-3oC temp rises, changes in prec
    • A big unknown….
    • Change in Green Mite pressure to 2020
    • Changes in Whitefly prevalence to 2020
    • Areas for research
      CO2 impacts on cassava
      Climate change impacts on quality…and toxicity
    • Pests and disease response
      Sound experimental multi-environment trials
      Coupled with modelling
      Allowing us to understand thresholds
      • Direct damage to reproductive cells (e.g. rice spikelet sterility)