An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook

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Congressional Budget Office

Presentation by Phill Swagel, CBO’s Director, to the National Association of Home Builders’ Financial Institutions and Capital Markets Subcommittee

Government & Nonprofit

Congressional Budget Office
Presentation to the National Association of Home Builders’
Financial Institutions and Capital Markets Subcommittee
October 13, 2020
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
An Overview of
The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
For further information about the venue, see https://tinyurl.com/y2vg95bu.

1
CBO
Federal Debt Held by the Public

2
CBO
The Federal Budget

3
CBO
Total Outlays and Revenues

4
CBO
Components of Outlays

5
CBO
Sources of Revenues

6
CBO
Composition of Federal Deficits

7
CBO
The Size of Policy Changes Needed to Make Federal Debt
Meet Two Possible Goals in 2050
79 Percent of GDP 100 Percent of GDP
Deficit Reduction Needed
Annually, 2025 to 2050 (Percentage of GDP)
3.6 2.9
Total reduction in 2025 (Billions of dollars) 900 730
Per person reduction in 2025 (Dollars) 2,700 2,200
2050 Debt Target

8
CBO
How Timing Affects the Size of Policy Changes Needed to Make
Federal Debt Meet Two Possible Goals in 2050

9
CBO
Population

10
CBO
Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP

11
CBO
Composition of Federal Outlays

12
CBO
Interest Rate on 10-Year Treasury Notes

13
CBO
Federal Debt If Total Factor Productivity Growth Differed

14
CBO
Federal Debt If Interest Rates Differed

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In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.

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1. Congressional Budget Office Presentation to the National Association of Home Builders’ Financial Institutions and Capital Markets Subcommittee October 13, 2020 Phillip L. Swagel Director An Overview of The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook For further information about the venue, see https://tinyurl.com/y2vg95bu.

2. 1 CBO Federal Debt Held by the Public

3. 2 CBO The Federal Budget

4. 3 CBO Total Outlays and Revenues

5. 4 CBO Components of Outlays

6. 5 CBO Sources of Revenues

7. 6 CBO Composition of Federal Deficits

8. 7 CBO The Size of Policy Changes Needed to Make Federal Debt Meet Two Possible Goals in 2050 79 Percent of GDP 100 Percent of GDP Deficit Reduction Needed Annually, 2025 to 2050 (Percentage of GDP) 3.6 2.9 Total reduction in 2025 (Billions of dollars) 900 730 Per person reduction in 2025 (Dollars) 2,700 2,200 2050 Debt Target

9. 8 CBO How Timing Affects the Size of Policy Changes Needed to Make Federal Debt Meet Two Possible Goals in 2050

10. 9 CBO Population

11. 10 CBO Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP

12. 11 CBO Composition of Federal Outlays

13. 12 CBO Interest Rate on 10-Year Treasury Notes

14. 13 CBO Federal Debt If Total Factor Productivity Growth Differed

15. 14 CBO Federal Debt If Interest Rates Differed