Talk presented by Daniel James at GDC Worlds in Motion Summit 2009.3.23. Daniel is CEO of Three Rings, creators of Puzzle Pirates and Whirled. This talk is an introduction to metrics for MMOs and ...
Talk presented by Daniel James at GDC Worlds in Motion Summit 2009.3.23. Daniel is CEO of Three Rings, creators of Puzzle Pirates and Whirled. This talk is an introduction to metrics for MMOs and contains real data from Puzzle Pirates and Whirled.
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Metrics for a Brave New WhirledPresentation Transcript
Metrics for a Brave New Whirled Daniel James | CEO | Three Rings www.threerings.net [email_address]
What is Whirled? Player-created Flash virtual world Rooms, avatars, toys, games, music, etc. Social network ‘geography’ (home rooms == profiles, etc.) Flash single and multi-player games to accrue ‘Coins’ (‘play money’) Shop for player creations, comments, ratings, etc. ‘ Bars’, hard currency bought for $$$ Third ‘cash-out’ currency ‘Bling’ earned by creators on Bar sales Small, engaged beta community ~20,000 weekly registered active
Whirled Simultaneous Players
Hourly Simultaneous Players
What is Puzzle Pirates? Casual MMO Broad demographics: Ages 7-70, ‘Double Bump’, 50/50 Male/Female Signed Java Applet, ~60mb, installs from web Subscriptions since launch Oct 2003 Virtual currency business model since Feb 2005 2007 Revenues $4M, ~$3M virtual currency ‘Doubloons’
Puzzle Pirates Metrics Conversion (from landing to registration): ~5% Retention (returning after one month): ~35%,~25% into month 2 Paid Customer Conversion (registration to revenue): ~3.5% Average Customer Lifetime Value : ~$120 Average Registrant ‘Value’: $4.20 Registered Players since 2004: 4,200,312 Customers since 2004: 90,197 ‘Doubloons’, 68,807 Subscription Current active players: ~110,000 Active paying players: ~30,000 Average Hours played per player per month: 21
For every new player acquired, how many new players arrive via Referral channels
If > 1 then exponential growth. Ye win!
Many ‘viral’ mechanics are ‘crafty’ e.g. email scrapers in registration process, FB games with invite incentives
Facebook still highly viral, but most apps supplement viral channels with paid ads
Myspace reportedly relies more on paid acquisition
FB invites work well for ‘frivolous’ Apps, but is there a conflict with ‘alternate persona’ games with depth? Do ‘fantasy’ players want to invite their real friends?
Activation Metrics
Site Visitors -> Playing Experience (~25%)
Different Landing Pages, Straight into Game etc.
Forced Registration is efficient
But, Retention works out similar to ‘play first’
Registration Conversion (~6% of visitors)
Active Players - logged in during the period
Simultaneous Players
Session Time (~20 minutes PP / Whirled)
The Whirled Funnel
Puzzle Pirates Registrations
(Different colours are different sources)
Retention Metrics
Retention - % of new visitors who return to the site within some period
Churn - % of total players who leave (usually monthly)
Whirled:
~2% Retention, 1st Visit -> Return after one Week
~23% of Registered Players return after one week
Retention Cohorts
A new Cohort shows up each week
Table shows % retained week-after-week
These numbers are not ideal!
Improving Retention
Sticky Fun!
Daily Return incentives (gift box)
Email: Notifications, Feeds, Newsletters
Validate your emails, check your spam
Referral Channels
Word of Mouth: Organic ‘Shows Up’
Registration ‘Find Friends’ Email
Game Invites: Email, FB Connect, IM
URL cut n paste
Trophy Notifications via FB
Share Games via URLs, FB, Myspace etc.
Share and Embed Rooms
Revenue Metrics
Conversion to Pay - usually % of registered players who pay
Average Revenue per Active Player (ARPU) - total revenue / active players, monthly
Paying Players / Customers - those who Purchase in that month, OR Active Users that have ever Purchased? Currency purchases are often bursty. Let’s call Paying Players those who bought in the month, and Ever Paid Players those who have ever paid
Percentage of Paying Players - Paying Players / Active Players
Percentage of Ever Paid Players - Paid Players / Active Players
Average Revenue per Paying Player per Month (ARPPU) - purchase amount for those who bought in the month. This is around $50 for many microtransaction games, inc. Puzzle Pirates
Average Revenue per Ever Paid Player per Month (AREPPU) - this is usually less, around $10 for Puzzle Pirates, as many active paid players do not necessarily purchase in that month
Mo’ Revenue Metrics: Lifetime Value
Customer Lifetime - average life of a paying customer in months. For PP ~14 months
Average Paying Player Lifetime Value (often called LTV) - total earned from a customer over lifetime
= AREPPU x Lifetime (for PP this is ~$125)
Average Registrant Value - this is the critical value to compare to your CPA
= AREPPU x Lifetime x Conversion to Pay
For PP = $125 x 3.5% = 4.37%
Whirled Economy Overview
Currency and value:
Free / Time Currency, rewards for gameplay (Coins)
Hard / Cash Currency, $$$ (Bars, Doubloons)
Creator earn-out Currency for Whirled (Bling)
Pricing
Player-controlled with some guidelines based on creator rating
Modest listing fees in Coins
Price in Coins to earn Coins, or Bars to earn Bling
Item Sales Distribution (PP) Products mix of Vanity (clothes, furniture) and Utility (ships, swords) Coin shop, Mostly personal utility, some gifting, all recurring (mini-subscriptions) Portraits, vanity, often groups Rooms / Houses, sometimes group
Customer Development
Develop Customers whilst developing Product
Ship early, track player behavior
Iterate against player behavior and rapidly revise product to meet customer expectations
Be prepared to completely re-tool product if customers don’t want it!
IMVU is the case study
Reading: ‘Four Steps to the Epiphany’ by Steve Blank http://www.steveblank.com/
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