Climate Change in Wales
Welsh Baccalaureate Teacher Training Day
Cardiff 07/12/11
Dr Jeanette Reis (Climate Change Consort...
Overview
• Purpose: to increase awareness of climate change science, local case
studies and teaching tools
• Content:
– Ba...
Basic Facts and Figures
The global perspective
Figure 1. The Greenhouse Effect
Principle of the
“Greenhouse Effect”
The su...
Carbon Dioxide
Did you know?
Carbon dioxide is released into the
atmosphere from volcanic eruptions and
burning fossil fue...
Global Results- Temperature 2029 and 2099
Source:http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_dat
a/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-6.html
Lo...
Global Results- Rainfall 2099 cf 1999
December, January, February (UK Winter) June, July, August (UK Summer)
Assuming medi...
Global Results- Sea Level since 1955
Source:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publicat
ions_and_data/ar4/wg1/en
/figure-5-20.html
Water ...
What Does this Mean for Wales?
Although the climate of the world is changing, effects could be different depending
on wher...
Welsh Implications
Health
and
wellbeing
Food supply
and natural
resources
Settlement
Critical
infrastructure
Industry
Miti...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Severn Case Study
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Everything is Related
The Severn Es...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
How Is “Everything’s Related”???
Eg...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Flood risk: characteristics
• 1 in ...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Flood risk & climate change
Chepsto...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Impacts of flood risk & Shoreline M...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Coastal defences on the Estuary
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
IMCORE Coastal Climate Change
– INT...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Further Information and Data Source...
Severn Estuary Partnership
Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
•Other activity ideas and data sour...
The Adaptation Challenge
Working in groups, imagine you are “Scott”, a 16
year old resident of Abernewydd.
Let’s explore S...
Instructions
See how well your group has adapted Scott’s
house to climate change
How well you’ve adapted will be measured ...
2040
– DID YOU ADAPT SCOTT’S HOUSE?
– If you did, adaptation cost = 3 tokens
Over the Next Decades …..
Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change ….
Throw your dice
Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change ….
1 His insurer goes bankrupt – LOSE 2 TOKENS
2 He has difficulty getting house ins...
Government Support Changes …
Throw your die
Government Support Changes …
1 Large rise in council tax – LOSE 2 TOKENS
2 Small increase in council tax – LOSE 1 TOKEN
3 ...
Natural Events Occur
Throw your die
Natural Events Occur
• 1 Drought – LOSE 1 TOKEN
• 2 Big freeze – LOSE 1 TOKEN
• 3 Perfect summer days – GAIN 1 TOKEN
• 4 N...
Your Score So Far …
Talk through implications of these changes
and repeat for time periods 2060 and 2080
if you wish.
What This Game Has Taught Us
• Various factors will affect
your ability to adapt to
future climate change
• Some of these ...
Quick Recap
– Basic facts and figures
• The global perspective
• The welsh perspective
• The Severn Estuary
– Teaching too...
Thank You!
For more information, go to:
http://www.severnestuary.net
http://ww.yocco.org
Or Email
ReisJ@cardiff.ac.uk
Park...
Welsh bacc teacher training day
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Teacher training material for teaching about climate change adaptation

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  • Multi use and complex estuaryTotal area = 55,684 ha 1Intertidal area = 9,971 ha 2Subtidal area = 6,275 ha 2Non tidal area = 623 ha 2Length of coastline = 353 km 1Length of channel = 111.2km 1Sources of freshwater input = Rivers Wye, Usk, Severn, AvonSuspended sediment = ~10 million tonnes Geomorphology = Coastal PlainTypes of Power Stations = coal – Aberthaw, nuclear - HinckleyAdjacent cities = Bristol, Cardiff, Gloucester, Newport.Human population = ~1,039,000 1
  • This slide gives you an idea of the variety and intensity of activities occurring in the estuary.Outline string game – word association – everything is related!
  • “a (non-statutory) document that provides a large scale assessment of the risks associated with coastal processes and presents a policy framework to reduce these risks to people and the developed, historic and natural environment in a sustainable manner”Defra/NAW, 2005Promotes sustainable management policies into the next century3 main time periods: 0-20 yrs, 20-50 yrs and 50-100 yearsAssess range of strategic coastal defence options & agree on preferred approach for identified Management Units – optionsHold the Line; No Active Intervention; Managed RealignmentInform statutory development plan process Underpinned by coastal process understanding‘Inclusive’ stakeholder engagement Severn Estuary Coastal GroupAtkins ConsultantsSEP involvement
  • SEP’s Role in flood risk Management Planning: Secretariat SECG roleSupport for SMPII and FRMSProject workINTERREG IVB IMCORE project (climate change impacts & adaptation)State of the Severn Report INTERREG IVC DeltaNet Project (exchanging best practice)Promoting stakeholder engagement Assisting in communication of issuesE-newsSevern TidingsSevern Forum
  • Welsh bacc teacher training day

    1. 1. Climate Change in Wales Welsh Baccalaureate Teacher Training Day Cardiff 07/12/11 Dr Jeanette Reis (Climate Change Consortium, Cardiff University) Paul Parker (Severn Estuary Partnership, Cardiff University)
    2. 2. Overview • Purpose: to increase awareness of climate change science, local case studies and teaching tools • Content: – Basic facts and figures • The global perspective • The welsh perspective • The Severn Estuary – Teaching tools • The string game • The adaptation challenge • Education pack • Outcomes: – Improved understanding of the science behind climate change – Improved awareness of information sources, case studies and teaching tools – Improved skills to deliver climate change lessons in a fun and interactive way.
    3. 3. Basic Facts and Figures The global perspective Figure 1. The Greenhouse Effect Principle of the “Greenhouse Effect” The sun shines down on the surface of the earth. About half the heat naturally reflects back out into space. When greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are released into our atmosphere, they trap heat and stop it reflecting back out into space. This causes additional warming of the earth surface, ocean and atmosphere… just like a greenhouse! Source: www. global-greenhouse-warming.com Eg. If outside, ask pupil to take off their coat for a few moments and then put it back on again!
    4. 4. Carbon Dioxide Did you know? Carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions and burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. However, most methane gas is produced by cattle! Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere significantly increased around 1900. This co- incided with the Industrial Revolution. At this time, levels rose from about 250 parts per million to more than 375 parts per million. Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/ mains2-2.html Ask pupils what they think will happen if you shake a bottle of lemonade and then open it. This is CO2. Where does it go?
    5. 5. Global Results- Temperature 2029 and 2099 Source:http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_dat a/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-6.html Low level of greenhouse gas emissions Medium level of greenhouse gas emissions High level of greenhouse gas emissions Did you know? It is very difficult to predict the amount of greenhouse gases we are likely to release in the future. The greater the amount released, the higher the predicted temperatures. Ask pupils how long they are likely to charge their mobile phones for, how long they will use hairdryers next week, next year etc. Can’t guess??? What’s the difference between weather and climate??? Average geographical scales and conditions!
    6. 6. Global Results- Rainfall 2099 cf 1999 December, January, February (UK Winter) June, July, August (UK Summer) Assuming medium levels of greenhouse gas emissions, precipitation in the form of rain, snow, sleet and hail is expected to increase by up to 20% in many Northern areas during the months of December, January and February. However, significant decreases of up to 20% are expected for areas such as North East Africa and Central America. Reductions in precipitation of up to 20% are expected during the months of June, July and August across much of Europe and Africa.
    7. 7. Global Results- Sea Level since 1955 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publicat ions_and_data/ar4/wg1/en /figure-5-20.html Water Expansion- Water expands as it warms up. This is thought by scientists to be the most dominant factor (>50%) in sea level change. Melting Ice- The second most important factor is melting land ice. Water in glaciers and ice sheets has often been trapped as ice for tens of thousands of years. When land based glaciers and ice sheets melt, water flows into the sea and sea level rises.
    8. 8. What Does this Mean for Wales? Although the climate of the world is changing, effects could be different depending on where we live. http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1492/499/ Data based on medium emissions scenario. Sourced from UKCP09 Temperature Changes 2080s Summer Rainfall Changes 2080s Winter Rainfall Changes 2080s Sea Level Changes 2080s Following compression and subsequent “bouncing back” of land masses during the last Ice Age, northern parts of Wales are rising very slowly (0.07cm per year). This effect may reduce predicted sea level rises in North and West Wales.
    9. 9. Welsh Implications Health and wellbeing Food supply and natural resources Settlement Critical infrastructure Industry Mitigate risks Eg. Lower carbon emissions Adapt to risks Eg. Modify houses Climate change See education pack for examples and activities
    10. 10. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary Severn Case Study
    11. 11. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary Everything is Related The Severn Estuary Partnership provides a unique neutral role linking people and organisations for the future of the estuary.
    12. 12. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary How Is “Everything’s Related”??? Eg. effect of the natural environment on human activities. Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University, http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/do cs/ClimateChangeReportCard1.pdf Produced for the IMCORE project.
    13. 13. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary Flood risk: characteristics • 1 in 1000 flood- Newport Area. (Climate Change factor-100 years)
    14. 14. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary Flood risk & climate change Chepstow Whole estuary rise 30 – 40 cm by 2080 • Some evidence of more storms over last 2 decades BUT not above levels of the 1920s • Little evidence of human impact • Little evidence of increase in intensity or frequency of storms over the UK in the future • Risk to estuary is from higher sea levels plus an intense storm event
    15. 15. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary Impacts of flood risk & Shoreline Management Planning
    16. 16. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary Coastal defences on the Estuary
    17. 17. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary IMCORE Coastal Climate Change – INTERREG IVB project – Key outputs • Guidelines on coastal adaptation to climate change – Focus on spatial planning (development of lowlying land around the estuary) • Socio-economic scenarios associated with climate change • Report cards simplifying science on climate change • Education pack & activities 12 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 Development & Flood Risk Nature Conservation Renewable Energy Generation Building Design Cross-Border Working Sustainability of Coastal Towns Transport Archaeology Development & Flood Risk “…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”; “…flooding is our big concern…”; “…we have a small hamlet…really in danger…”; “…so much of our urban development is in very vulnerable locations...”
    18. 18. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary Further Information and Data Sources •State of the Severn Estuary Report - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/publications/soser.html •The report aims to provide a non-technical overview of the current ‘State of the Severn Estuary’, informing a wide ranging audience – including Estuary locals and industry professionals alike – on why the Estuary is so unique. •Severn Estuary Gateway - http://www.severnestuary.net •IMCORE - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/imcore/imcore_policyplanning.html •DeltaNet - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/deltanet.html •Beacons YoCCo – http://www.yocco.org
    19. 19. Severn Estuary Partnership Working in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary •Other activity ideas and data sources / climate change information can be found in the ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Wales’ Education resorce pack for teachers and pupils of Key Stage 4. •http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/educ ation.htm
    20. 20. The Adaptation Challenge Working in groups, imagine you are “Scott”, a 16 year old resident of Abernewydd. Let’s explore Scott’s future…… Adapt house? Energy supply? Transport?
    21. 21. Instructions See how well your group has adapted Scott’s house to climate change How well you’ve adapted will be measured by how many tokens your group has at the end of the game The winning group will have the most tokens at the end (12 to start)! For each time period (2040; 2060; 2080) we are going change: •Your personal circumstances •Government support •Natural events We’ll throw the dice and dependent on the outcome, your group will LOSE or GAIN tokens
    22. 22. 2040 – DID YOU ADAPT SCOTT’S HOUSE? – If you did, adaptation cost = 3 tokens
    23. 23. Over the Next Decades …..
    24. 24. Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change …. Throw your dice
    25. 25. Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change …. 1 His insurer goes bankrupt – LOSE 2 TOKENS 2 He has difficulty getting house insurance - LOSE 1 TOKENS 3 He falls behind on mortgage payments – LOSE 1 TOKEN 4 His partner inherits a fortune – GAIN 3 TOKENS 5 He develops a water-based tourist business – GAIN 2 TOKENS 6 He wins the lottery – GAIN 4 TOKENS
    26. 26. Government Support Changes … Throw your die
    27. 27. Government Support Changes … 1 Large rise in council tax – LOSE 2 TOKENS 2 Small increase in council tax – LOSE 1 TOKEN 3 Rise in fuel tax – LOSE 1 TOKEN 4 Small government grant for house adaptation – GAIN 1 TOKEN 5 Large government grant for house adaptation – GAIN 2 TOKENS 6 Government provides river defences – GAIN 3 TOKENS
    28. 28. Natural Events Occur Throw your die
    29. 29. Natural Events Occur • 1 Drought – LOSE 1 TOKEN • 2 Big freeze – LOSE 1 TOKEN • 3 Perfect summer days – GAIN 1 TOKEN • 4 No major event 5 River floods – LOSE 1 TOKEN or 2 if his insurance company went bankrupt • 6 Major storm – LOSE 3 TOKENS or 4 if his insurance company went bankrupt
    30. 30. Your Score So Far … Talk through implications of these changes and repeat for time periods 2060 and 2080 if you wish.
    31. 31. What This Game Has Taught Us • Various factors will affect your ability to adapt to future climate change • Some of these are ‘chance’ factors e.g. winning the lottery • Others you or government can plan for • There are lots of adaptation options
    32. 32. Quick Recap – Basic facts and figures • The global perspective • The welsh perspective • The Severn Estuary – Teaching tools • The adaptation challenge • Education pack and website
    33. 33. Thank You! For more information, go to: http://www.severnestuary.net http://ww.yocco.org Or Email ReisJ@cardiff.ac.uk ParkerPR@cardiff.ac.uk

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