Hodson putting ug99 on the mapv2

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2011 BGRI Technical Workshop:
Dave Hodson, FAO
Putting Ug99 on the map: An update on current and future monitoring

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  • Summary of the known status of Ug99 lineage racesMovements occurring in 2 directionsAlthough unproven, it is possible that repeat incursions can occur into Iran (report in 2009 may represent this? Air flows out of Yemen are conducive for repeat incursions into Iran)Spread of Ug99 variants (or other pathotypes in the future) expected to be similar
  • Consolidated rust survey data for 2010Stem rust widespread and at high severity in Eritrea and the highlands of Yemen – pathotypes currently unknown, but under-going analysisEstablished or high stem rust populations in this region have implications for Iran
  • Consolidated rust survey data for 2010Stem rust widespread and at high severity in Eritrea and the highlands of Yemen – pathotypes currently unknown, but under-going analysisEstablished or high stem rust populations in this region have implications for Iran
  • Consolidated rust survey data for 2010Stem rust widespread and at high severity in Eritrea and the highlands of Yemen – pathotypes currently unknown, but under-going analysisEstablished or high stem rust populations in this region have implications for Iran
  • Consolidated rust survey data for 2010Stem rust widespread and at high severity in Eritrea and the highlands of Yemen – pathotypes currently unknown, but under-going analysisEstablished or high stem rust populations in this region have implications for Iran
  • Ug99 is both migrating and mutating7 variants are now known within the Ug99 lineageAdditional important stem rust resistance genes have been defeated by Ug99 – notable are Sr24 and Sr36 since both are widely deployed in wheat cultivars worldwideUg99 Sr24 variants are now the predominant stem rust races in eastern and southern Africa and there is rapid spreadIn Kenya, the original Sr24 variant went from trace amounts in 2006 to epidemic levels in 2007. All of the samples analyzed from Kenya in 2010 were Ug99 Sr24 variants.It is extremely likely that the Ug99 Sr24 variants will spread out of Africa in the near future, with Iran being one of the countries along the likely migration path
  • 2 areas of concern highlighted – both represent the very real risk of incursions into important wheat areas.There is no implication that Ug99 races have moved along these airflows, but they highlight the very real threats and possibilities.South Asia: During Jan-Mar 2011 there were consistent airflows from known stem rust (UG99) sites in Yemen and Eritrea. These airflows were reaching key wheat areas in south asia within 72 hours. Previous years of wind trajectory analysis have shown the tendency to move north-east out of Yemen, but this year the winds seemed stronger and much more consistent all the way into south Asia. Stem rust (most likely Ug99) was known to be present in at least one site in Yemen. In Eritrea very high incidence and severity of stem rust was observed in Oct 2010 - no information on the off-season stem rust situation, but it is not impossible there was disease at source. There is every chance that at some point we are going to see Ug99 move into south Asia. Mega-cultivars in south Asia (pbw343, inqualab-91) are highly susceptible + were being grown at the time of these air movements – pbw343 is so susceptible it is used as spreader in Kenya + Ethiopia!Australia. Important Ug99 races (PTKST – both SR31+Sr24) are building up in Southern Africa. SR24 important gene in Australia. Known historical movements from southern africa to australia. In Oct-Nov 2010 confirmed infections of PTKST at source in south Africa, airflows on several occasions reached Australian wheat areas (with susceptible wheat in the ground) in 6-8 days. Numerous rain fronts were moving across southern Australia at the same time (ie good potential for spore deposition). This type of combination of conditions are likely to account for the known historical incursions. Unknown factors are spore release to get into airflows, spore survival and deposition. With increasing Ug99 levels in southern Africa the probability of successful long-distance incursions increase. The first scenario above has obvious implications for Iran. It simply re-enforces the likely potential for movement of pathotypes from Yemen / Horn of Africa.This slide emphasizes the need for the global monitoring systems!
  • Data management system developed by Aarhus University, Denmark in collaboration with BGRI / FAOSits on top of a centralized Crop Problem Dbase – currently holds survey and pathotype data but will be expanded to include trap nursery and molecular diagnostic data. Flexible dbase capable of holding all 3 rust diseases – expansion in progress to incorporate yellow rust data.Toolbox permits: user management (different access / permission levels); on-line data entry; data quality control and publishingOutputs: Series of data-base driven graphical tools. Currently: survey mapping, pathotype frequencies and distributions over time. Additional tools planned for the future. All outputs as iframes so seemelessly embedded in external websites eg Rust SPORE at FAO.Standard data export / exchange permitting direct connection to external applications eg RustMapper at CIMMYT.
  • A few ideas on possible future innovations re surveillance.
  • Hodson putting ug99 on the mapv2

    1. 1. Putting Ug99 on the map: An update on current and future monitoring<br />D.P. Hodson, K. Nazari, R.F. Park, J. Hansen, P. Lassen, J. Arista, T. Fetch, M. Hovmøller, Y Jin, Z.A. Pretorius and K. Sonder<br />
    2. 2. Context: Wheat is Important!<br />2<br />% Daily Calories from Wheat<br />Source: H-J, Braun, CIMMYT<br /><ul><li> World’s most widely grown crop
    3. 3. 200+ Million ha
    4. 4. 600+ Million tons / yr</li></li></ul><li><ul><li> Clear need for effective monitoring & surveillance</li></ul>Ug99 – A call to action<br /><ul><li>1998: Anomalous results from a nursery in Uganda
    5. 5. 1999: Confirmation of loss of important Sr genes (Sr31, Sr38 +++) “Ug99” [TTKSK]
    6. 6. 2005: “Sounding the Alarm on Global Stem Rust”. Formation of the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative
    7. 7. ?’s – Susceptibility? Where next? How soon?....</li></li></ul><li>2005: What did we know?<br />
    8. 8. 2005: What did we know?<br /><ul><li> Very little!
    9. 9. Sr31 virulent stem rust at 10-15 research stations in East Africa</li></li></ul><li>Ug99 Tracking: History<br />2005: CIMMYT <br />First use of GIS: Ug99<br />Part of successful fundraising<br />RustMapper – Google Earth Application<br />2009: DRRW – FAO<br />Rust SPORE web portal<br />2011: CIMMYT<br />Singh et al. 2006<br />
    10. 10. International Rust Monitoring: Stem Rust Model<br />Country Reports<br />RustSPORE<br />Web portal<br />RustMapper<br />To Country<br />Spatial Database<br />Full GIS<br />Secondary Data<br />Climate, crops etc<br />Winds<br /><ul><li>Relies on national </li></ul>surveillance<br /><ul><li>Standard survey</li></ul> protocols<br /><ul><li>Added value
    11. 11. Global Overview</li></ul>Field survey<br />+<br />Samples<br />Trap Nurseries /<br /> plots<br />
    12. 12. 2005<br />c. 10 stations<br />reporting Ug99<br />Continued Expansion of Surveillance Network<br /><ul><li>Rapidly increasing flow of field data
    13. 13. Improved knowledge on annual incidence & severity
    14. 14. Multi-year data: Now starting to detect potential changes</li></ul>2010<br />2009<br />
    15. 15. 2007<br />2009<br />2006<br />2003<br />2001<br />1998/9<br />Movements<br />Possible<br />Spread<br />?<br />?<br />2009<br />THE SPREAD OF WHEAT STEM RUST UG99 LINEAGE<br />FAO, Aug 2010<br />
    16. 16. Stem Rust Surveys 2010<br />
    17. 17. Stem Rust Surveys 2010<br />
    18. 18. Stem Rust Surveys 2010<br />Eritrea: 2009<br />Eritrea: 2010<br /><ul><li> Clear change (Environment, timing, cultivars, pathogen?)
    19. 19. 2010 first detection of Ug99 Sr24 variants
    20. 20. NARI, Eritrea (A. Wolday) + AAFC, Winnipeg, Canada (T. Fetch)
    21. 21. Wolday et al in prep</li></li></ul><li>Stem Rust Surveys 2010<br /><ul><li> Clear change (Environment, timing, cultivars, pathogen?)
    22. 22. 2010 first detection of Ug99 variants (including Sr24 variants)
    23. 23. DRSS, Zimbabwe (F. Mukoyi, B. Mutari), SeedCo (T. Soko) + University of the Free State, South Africa (Z. Pretorius, L. Herselman, B. Visser)
    24. 24. Mukoyi et al. Plant Disease 2011</li></ul>Zimbabwe: 2009<br />Zimbabwe: 2010<br />
    25. 25. Pathogen Monitoring: Ug99 Lineage<br /><ul><li>Variants detected & tracked
    26. 26. Expansion in range (& number of variants)
    27. 27. 7 variants
    28. 28. virulence Sr31+Sr24 increasingly detected
    29. 29. Progress: Global summary, increasing national capacity
    30. 30. Constraints: Year-round analysis, sample viability
    31. 31. Addition of Global Rust Reference Centre, Denmark – expands international pathotyping network</li></ul>Data sources: AAFC, Canada; Uni Free State, South Africa; USDA-ARS Cereals Disease Lab, USA<br />
    32. 32. Ug99 Sr24 Variants (PTKST, TTKST)<br />An important Sr gene<br />Ug99 Sr24 variants being widely detected<br />Now predominant pathotypes in several countries<br />Movement out of Africa inevitable<br />
    33. 33. Emerging Concerns<br />Jan-Mar 2011<br />South Asia:<br /><ul><li>Jan-Mar 2011: Consistent air-flows from Yemen + Eritrea
    34. 34. Stem rust (Ug99?) at source in Yemen, Feb 2011
    35. 35. High severity of stem rust Eritrea, Oct. 2010
    36. 36. Highly susceptible hosts in South Asia (PBW343: 6M ha; Inqualab-91: 4M ha)</li></ul>2. Australia:<br /><ul><li> Oct-Nov 2010: Consistent air-flows from South Africa
    37. 37. Confirmed Ug99 (race PTKST: Sr31+Sr24 vir.) at source
    38. 38. Abnormal rainfall in Australia
    39. 39. Susceptible hosts in Australia</li></ul>Oct-Nov 2010<br />
    40. 40.
    41. 41. Data Management: Wheat Rust Toolbox<br />NB: Generic - Applicable to all rusts<br />Outputs:<br /><ul><li> Survey Mapping
    42. 42. Pathotypes, +...</li></ul>On-line Data Entry<br />Quality control/publish<br />Data Export / Exchange<br />User Management<br />Crop Problem Dbase<br />(survey, pathotypes, [Trap nursery, Molecular] )<br />External Applications<br />e.g., RustMapper<br />
    43. 43. Delivering Information: Rust SPORE<br />Dedicated web portal: Rust SPORE<br />http://www.fao.org/agriculture/crops/rust/stem/en/<br />Updates<br />Tracking<br />Country Surveys<br />Pathotypes<br />3 UN languages (English, Arabic, Russian)<br />Centralized Dbase (Aarhus), embedded applications (Aarhus + CIMMYT)<br />Target: Scientists, Decision-makers, Public Awareness<br />
    44. 44. Surveillance: Future Innovations<br />Smart Phone field data collection (e.g., Epicollect model)<br />SMS farmer/extension networks<br />Rapid disease detection<br />Farmer control / mitigation advice<br />Remote Sensing<br />Damage assessment<br />Molecular Diagnostics<br />Mid-term: Rapid, in-season pathotype group (Ug99 lineage) detection<br />Long-term: pathotype detection?<br />Disease prediction models<br />Aanensen et al., 2009. PlosOne<br />USDA-FAS. Commodity Intelligence Report, June 2010<br />
    45. 45. Challenges<br />Surveys<br />Political instability, insecurity<br />Resources (human + financial)<br />Information flows<br />Sampling<br />Restrictions on sample movement – dead or alive [Dead DNA samples Yemen-USA, 7 months!]<br />Sample viability<br />Pathotyping capacity (International + national)<br />Strengthened linkages to breeding, seed + control systems<br />Accidental human-borne transfer<br />Need for sustained monitoring in “low-risk” areas<br />Other rusts!<br />
    46. 46. Stripe Rust Severity:2010 Surveys<br /><ul><li>The most damaging wheat rust on the global scale
    47. 47. 2 New highly aggressive strains + rapid global spread
    48. 48. Breakdown of a key resistance gene (Yr27) in CWANA
    49. 49. Mega cultivars withYr27 are currently planted on more than 15 million hectares (North Africa to South Asia)
    50. 50. 2010: Major outbreaks: Syria, Ethiopia, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan (up to 40% losses)</li></li></ul><li>Conclusion<br />Increased global awareness on vulnerability of wheat crop (rusts in general)<br />Monitoring system in place (Ug99) – current status + monitoring pathogen populations<br />Information systems / tools in place and being developed<br />Functional international networks emerging, increased national capacity for surveillance and monitoring<br />Current systems need to be sustained and expanded to address current and future rust threats <br />
    51. 51. Acknowledgements<br />All contributing national partners<br />PBI, University of Sydney<br />ICARDA<br />CIMMYT<br />AAFC, Canada<br />CDL, Minnesota, USA<br />University of the Free State, South Africa<br />Aarhus University, Denmark<br />BGRI / Cornell University<br />Donors: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, DFID, USAID, IFAD<br />

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