Practices by Proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data)

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Anderson, B (2012) Practices By Proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water, Paper presented at “Can Climate Change Policies Be Fair?”, Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012, London

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Practices by Proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data)

  1. 1. Practices by Proxy Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data...) Dr Ben Anderson University of Essex Please cite as:Anderson, B (2012) Practices By Proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water, Paper presented at “Can Climate Change Policies Be Fair?”, Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012, London Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  2. 2. ContentsWhy? Water practicesHow? ProxiesWhat? ModelsProblems? DataWhere next? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  3. 3. Why: Water is (going to be) a problemEnergy problems: The water industry currently Carbon cost of `clean accounts for 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per water Year - almost one per cent of UK greenhouse gas emissions. Environment Agency 2009 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  4. 4. Why: Water is (going to be) a problemEnergy problems: With no Carbon cost of `clean behaviour change and no water flow controlsSupply problems Locally/regionally scarce Climate change?Demand problems 50% used by households Poorly understood Climate change? Source: DEFRA, 2011 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  5. 5. What do we want to know?Practices in which water is implicated Diversity habituation, routine, practical consciou tacit knowledge, tradition Performance often neither fully cons nor reflective Alan Warde, 2005 Why people don’t do what they ‘should’ - Jim Skea, 2011 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  6. 6. What do we want to know?Practices in which water is implicated DiversityProxies for practices? Traces of waterRelationship with climate? Mediation, adaptationRelationship to demand? From practices to litres Image: Eric Shipton, 1951 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  7. 7. Conceptual Framework habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflectiveWater demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Regulation Education Market ?? ?? Information Supply Persuasion Policy levers & Interventions Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  8. 8. Conceptual Framework Climate change habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflectiveWater demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Regulation Education Market ?? ?? Information Supply Persuasion Policy levers & Interventions Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  9. 9. How: Expenditures as ProxiesIdeal Proxy (LCF 2002-2010) water (l/day) £ water/week Demograp hics Demograp hics Shampoo,soap Fruit & Veg detergents Practices £/week Tea, coffee, Garden juices products Price Price Regional Climate/We ather Attitudes linked Attitudes to survey quarter Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  10. 10. How: Modelling Approach2005 prices All 39121 householdsSelection: Metered 11119 Metered only Separate -1387 Combined water & sewerage water & sewerageSeasonal models 20 £4.90 Remaining 9732 15 £4.85 10 £4.80 5 £4.75 0 £4.70 Winter (Dec – Feb) Spring (Mar – May) Summer (Jun – Aug) Autumn (Sep – Nov) Water £/week Mean rainfall (cm) Mean number raindays Mean sunshine Mean temperature hours (/10) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  11. 11. What: Summary Results Weather (3 year anomly interaction) Climate/W Weather (contemporary interaction) eather Practices Washing machine/dishwasherLong-term illness, age of HRP, gender of HRP, ethnicity of HRP Practices Age distributions, number of persons N cars, n earners, HRP employment, composition Accommodation, number of rooms, tenure Traces of Region, year, income Practices? 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% r sq change in rsq Linear regression (OLS), Wald Table, n = 11,192, final r sq = 27% Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  12. 12. What: Practice effects Traces of Practices? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  13. 13. What: Weather interaction effectsProxy Spring Summer Main effect Interaction Main effect InteractionLeaf & stem vegetables 0.069 0.905 (unusually hot)Detergents/washing powder 0.066 -0.087 (number of rain days)plants, flowers, seeds, N/s 0.018fertilisers, insecticides (temperature) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  14. 14. So...The proxies for practices approach has valueBut Garden/soils etc Period of water use? Expenditures as proxies? High spend != high volume Recall/response error? 72% reported no spend on soaps, Zeros! shower gels etc in 2010!What to do? A well-known problem in the analysis of expenditures Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  15. 15. Approaches to validationLink real dataModel response data Look for odd responses or outliers given model (residuals)Aggregate and compare with other sources Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  16. 16. Linking water Practice based survey of water habits 1800 respondents across South & East England Linked metering data for survey respondents For those who agreed to linkage Of whom 4 are metered And whose water company also agreed (!) who said they werent!Metered: 769 42% 10% didnt knowAgreed to linkage: 282 15% To date we only have 64 recordsAgreed to linkage and 132 7%metered To date we only have 32 records Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  17. 17. Linking water: What we hope for... Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  18. 18. Linking water: What we get...Preliminary results with incomplete data, please do not cite! To be refreshed when more data arrives21 metered respondents who agreed to data linkage AND estimated monthly water bill Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  19. 19. Aggregating electricity Ia Survey: Total LCF 2010Yorkshire and the Humber DECC West Midlands Wales Sub-regional South West electricity South East statistics North East (aggregated Greater London LSOAs) Eastern East Midlands 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Mean £ per week (LCF, 2010) Mean £ per week (DECC 2010, assume 12p per kwh) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  20. 20. Aggregating electricity Ib Total Yorkshire and the Humber West Midlands Wales South West 18 South East North East Greater London Eastern Mean £ per week (DECC, 2010, assumes 12p per kwh) East Midlands 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 16 Mean £ per week (EFS, 2010) Mean £ per week (DECC 2010, assume 12p per kwh) R² = 0.3642018973 14Survey: 12 LCF 2010 10DECC 8 Sub-regional 6 electricity 4 statistics 2 (aggregated 0 LSOAs) 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 Mean £ per week (LCF, 2010) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  21. 21. Aggregating electricity IIaIdeally Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  22. 22. Aggregating electricity IIaIdeally Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data Not yet in Secure Data Service... Spatial MicrosimulationSo: Small Area Estimation East of England LSOA level electricity demand estimates New data please! Census 2001 & LCF 2010 Compare to DECC LSOA data Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  23. 23. Aggregating electricity IIb LSOAs East of England Forest Heath 002A/B c. 73% = Born in the USA! Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  24. 24. Aggregating electricity IIc Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  25. 25. Aggregating electricity IId Spearman rho: Town: 0.6403 Urban: 0.5915 Village: 0.7948 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  26. 26. So what?We can map: Energy poverty Energy inequalityAnd we can model Potential policy effects Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  27. 27. So what?We can map: Energy poverty Energy inequalityAnd we can model Potential policy effectsBut also The electricity expenditures may be robust Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  28. 28. ConclusionsThinking about expenditures as proxies for practices Has some valueBUT there are problems Zeros? Mis-reporting?Where next? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  29. 29. ConclusionsThinking about expenditures as proxies for practices Has some valueBUT there are problems Zeros? Mis-reporting?Where next? Data linkage? Micro and area level calibration? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
  30. 30. Thank youDr Ben Anderson benander@essex.ac.ukSustainable Practices Research Group www.sprg.ac.ukSpatial microsimulation: http://www.scribd.com/collections/3209973/Spatial-microsimulation Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?

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