A recommended national program in weather modification

ICAS Report No. 10a
November 1966

A Recommended National Program

In Weather Modification
A Report to the
Interdepartmental Committee for
Atmospheric Sciences

bY
Homer E. Newell
Associate Administrator for Space Science and Application
National Aeronautics Si Space Administration
Washington, D.C.

I

w

W

0

a

Interdepartmental Committee
for

n
0
n

Q

0
I
>

n

0
0

E
m

I

.

e

.

"I.

.

DONALD F. HORWIG, Chairman
Special Assistant t o the President for Science and Technology
Jowl S. PW!Wt, JR.

Department of Defense

GT
-.
SEABORG
A t d c Energy Camlssion

J. HERBERT H O L U X W
Department of Camerce

LELAND J. HAwOR!CE
Rational Science Foundation

PHILIP Re LEE

JAMES E WEBB
.

Department of Health, Education, and
Welfare

National Aeronautics and Space
Administration

THCWS F. BATES

GEORGEL. MEHRW

Department of the Interior

Department of Agriculture

EEIWAt? POLLACK (Observer)
Department of State

WILLIAM D. CAREX (Observer)
Bureau of the Budget

WILLLAM F. McKEE (Observer)
Federal Aviation Agency

Arms

JR. (Observer)
Control and Disarmament Agency

HERBFST SCOVIIU,

JACK W. CARISOH (Observer)
Council of Ekonolpic Advisers

S DILLON RIpLey (Observer)
.
Smithsonian Institution

CHARtES V. KIDD
Executive Secretary

J. HEREERT H O L L W N I c s
hi
m
Federal Council f o r Science and Technology
UZUND J. HAWORTH, Vice Chairman

THMlDoRE C. B m Y

National Science Foundation

Department of Agriculture

Department of Camnerce

DONALD M. MCARTMm
Department of Defense

RICHARD A. PRINDU

HaMERE.

Department of Health, Education, and
Welfare

National Aeronautics and Space
Administration

JOSHUA Z HaLIdl4D (Acting)
.
Atamic Energy Cammission

D- t
en

HERMAN mucic

JOSEWD. BLATT
Federal Aviation Agency

RO[BERTM.

WHITE

Department of State

m m m

THaMAs F. BATES
of the Interior

Federal Commrnicatlons Caannission

DAvlD Z ROBINSON (Observer)
.
Office of Science and Technology

SAMUEL A. IAWREEE (Observer)

JOHN R SIEVERS (Observer)
.

LEE

Bureau of the Budget

National Academy of Sciences

smmmw. BETlls
CLAY'IQR E JWSEN (Observer)
.
Executive Secretary
Office of the Federal Coordinator for
hieteo-ogicd.
Services and S u ~ ~ o r t i n g
Research

FEDERAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
WASHINGTON, D.C.

20230

ICAS Report No. 10a
November 7, 1966

MEMORANDUM FOR DR. DONALD F HORNIG
.
Subject:

Weather Modification Program

At its meeting of March 29, 1966 the Fe~dr61Council askel ICAS
to prepare a report outlining "who is doing what in weather
modification, the future plans of the agencies (particularly
Commerce and Interior) and their interrelationships, and the
considerations that should affect decisions on the division of
responsibilities for research in weather modification."
Forwarded herewith is a Report prepared for ICAS by 3r. Homer E.
Newell, the NASA member of ICAS. It has been thoroughly considered by our Committee and is endorsed as the ICAS response
to the Council's request above.

J. Herbert Hollomon
Chairman

A Recommended National Program
In Weather Modification
A Report t the
o
Interdepartmental Committee for

bY
Homer E. Newel1
Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications
lVational Aeronadcs A Space Administration
Washington, D.C.'

1 October 1966

A RECOMMENDED NATIONAL PROGRAM IN WEATHER MODIFICATION

INTRODUCTION
The earth'sJeather has a profound influence on
agriculture, forestry, water resources, industry, commerce, transportation, construction, field operations,
commercial fishing, and many other human activities.
Adverse effects of weather on man's activities and the
earth's resources are extremely costly, amounting to
billions of dollars per year, sometimes causing
irreparable damage as when human lives are lost in
severe storms. There is, therefore, great motivation
to develop effective countermeasures against the
destructive effects of weather, and, conversely, to
enhance the beneficial aspects. The financial and
other benefits to human welfare of being able to
modify weather to augment water supplies, reduce
lightning, suppress hail, mitigate tornados, and
inhibit the full development of hurricanes would be
very great.
Over the past twenty years experiments have been
conducted on weather modification, particularly on the
effects of seedinq clouds with such materials as
silver iodide crystals. The results are limited.
Under suitable circumstances it has been possible to
augment precipitation by ten to twenty percent, and to
reduce the frequency of fire-producing lightning
strokes. Effects on hail production have been noted,
sometimes suppression and sometimes augmentation.
These results probably would be of only passing interest
were it not for the potential importance to mankind
of further progress in this field. Perhaps the most
significant result of the experiments to date has been
to bring about a change in attitude from one of
skeptici9m to one of cautious optimism. The limited
success to date is encouraging, and underscores the

2

importance of pressing forward with the necessary research
to understand the dynamics of weather systems that will
have to be dealt with in any efforts at weather modification.
The gradually accumulating evidence of positive
results from efforts at weather modification led the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences of the National
Academy of Sciences, in November 1963,to appoint a
Panel on Weather and Climate Modification "to undertake
a deliberate and thoughtful review of the present status
and activities in this fieldq and of its potential and
limitations for the future."
The Panel made its report
at the beginning of this calendar year (Ref. 1). The
composition of the NAS Panel is given in App. I, together
with a list of the Panel's recommendations. Elaboration
and discussion of these recommendations may be found
in Ref. 1.
On June 16, 1964, the Director of the National
Science Foundation announced the appointment of a
Special Commission on Weather Modification. To assist
in its review of the field, the Commission activated
seven subgroups to study the physical, biological,
statistical, social, international, legal and legislative, and administration and funding aspects of
weather and climate modification. The membership of
the Commission and a list of the principal recommendations of the Commission are attached (App. 11).
Fdrther elaboration and discussions of those recommendations may be found in the Commission's report and
the report of the subgroups (Refs. 2 and 3).

*

Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National
Academy of qciences-National Research Council; "Weather
and Climate Modification," Volume I-Summary and Recommendations, Publication No. 1350, 1966, pg vii

3

With the growing conviction of positive and potential results, a number of government agencies have been
developing plans for research and ultimately operational
programs in weather and climate modification. Some of
these plans stem from the desire to use weather modification to meet specific mission responsibilities such
as development of water resources, protection of crops,
__
__
protection against forest fires, ecc:
Other plans stem
m dire= responsibility for furthering our understanding of weather and its uses. A summary report,
"Present and Future Plans of Federal Agencies in
Weather-Climate Modification," dated June 20, 1966, was
prepared for the Interdepartmental Committee for
Atnospheric Sciences (ICAS) by a Select Panel on Weather
Modification (App. 111). -Whereas the ICAS Select Panel
report reflected a desirable vigor in pressing forward
in this important field, nevertheless, it raised a
number of questions as to the soundness and adequacy of
proposed plans, the validity of cost estimates, the
availsbility of trained people to meet the schedules
proposed, overlapping of research activities, duplication
of proposed facilities, responsibility for coordination
and reporting, and responsibility for regulation and
control.
To discharge its responsibilities, ICAS must provide
answers to these questions and make appropriate recommendations. T o this end, the Chairman of ICAS, Dr. Herbert
Hollomon, asked me to review the proposed plans and to
submit recommendations that might be adopted by ICAS for
a report to Dr. Donald F. Hornig, Director of the Office
of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President.
TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR T H I S STUDY

The terns of reference for this study are set forth
in the memorandum from Dr. Hollomon to me (App. IV),
specifically requesting me to formulate a National Weather

4

M o d i f i c a t i o n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e
r e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a n e l on Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n .
APPROACH

I have t a k e n t h e ICAS Select P a n e l Report (App. 111)
a s m s t a r t i n g p o i n t , and have used t h e NAS P a n e l and NSF
y
S p e c i a l Commission Reports (Refs. 1, 2, 3 ) a s s o u r c e s o f

e x p e r t t h i n k i n g on t h e s u b j e c t . I n o r d e r t o p e n e t r a t e
i n s u f f i c i e n t d e p t h i n t o t h e problems i n v o l v e d , I p u t
t o g e t h e r a p a n e l of N S e x p e r k s , the c o n s t i t u t i o n of
AA
which i s g i v e n i n App. V. W e m e t a number of t i m e s w i t h
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , t h e
Environmental S c i e n c e S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( E S S A ) , t h e
I n t e r i o r D e p a r t m e n t ' s Bureau of Reclamation, and t h e
N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation (NSF), t o hear b r i e f i n g s on
program p l a n s and b u d g e t s , t o d i s c u s s proposed s c h e d u l e s ,
s t a f f i n g , f a c i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n , and o p e r a t i o n s , and t o
review i n s o m e d e t a i l t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t estimates.
W e r e c e i v e d from t h e s e a g e n c i e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e volume of
s u p p o r t i n g documentation. Appendix V a l s o i n c l u d e s a
chronology of P a n e l m e e t i n g s , and a l i s t of m a t e r i a l
reviewed by t h e Panel.
I e l e c t e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e above
f o u r a g e n c i e s , s i n c e t h e i r programs, a s set f o r t h i n
t h e ICAS S e l e c t Panel R e p o r t , p r o j e c t t o over 98% of
t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t y i n
1970. Because t h e programs of t h e Department of Defense,
t h e F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n Agency, and t h e N a t i o n a l A e r o n a u t i c s
and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n w e r e such a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e
t o t a l , t h e y w e r e n o t reviewed i n d e t a i l .

I n a s s e s s i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f cost e s t i m a t e s , I
sought t o d e t e r m i n e r e a l i s t i c and r e a s o n a b l e orders of
magnitude.
P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o a s s e s s i n g

* Henceforth t h e NASA Panel w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o simply
a s " t h e Panel."

5
t h e r e a l i s m of t h e estimates of manpower r e s o u r c e s and
a v a i l a b i l i t y , and t h e i r impact on p o s s i b l e r a t e s of growth.
I a l s o sought t o s e p a r a t e those areas meriting e a r l y
a t t e n t i o n from t h o s e of a l o n g e r range n a t u r e t h a t could
be approached m o r e slowly.
The o b s e r v a t i o n s and recommendations c o n t a i n e d i n
t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s a r e based on t h e P a n e l reviews
and d e l i b e r a t i o n s . I t should be emphasized t h a t t h e
recommendations d e a l w i t h t h e major problems, on .the
assumption t h a t i f t h e major problems a r e r e s o l v e d t h e
r e m a i n i n g p i e c e s can be f i t t e d i n t o p l a c e .
RECOMMENDED PRINCIPLES

C e r t a i n p r i n c i p l e s w e r e developed which u n d e r l i e
t h e program recommendations.
It i s recommended t h a t
these p r i n c i p l e s be a c c e p t e d i n t h e development of the
N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program.
It i s i n t e n d e d
t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s a p p l y t o a l l a g e n c i e s involved i n
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , and n o t j u s t t o t h o s e
whose programs are d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n t h i s r e p o r t ,
The p r i n c i p l e s a r e :

1.

There i s s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l payoff i n d i c a t e d
b y t h e r e s u l t s of p a s t r e s e a r c h t o j u s t i f y
c o n t i n u i n g b a s i c and a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h i n the
area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .

2.

The p o t e n t i a l d o l l a r s a v i n g s i n l e s s e n i n g the

d e s t r u c t i v e e f f e c t s of w e a t h e r , and t h e potent i a l g a i n s i n enhancing t h e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s ,
a r e so g r e a t t h a t e x p e n d i t u r e s of a p p r e c i a b l e
d o l l a r s on weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and
a p p l i c a t i o n can be j u s t i f i e d .
3.

There i s a need f o r a s i n g l e agency t o assume
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t a k i n g the l e a d i n d e v e l o p i n g
a well-rounded n a t i o n a l program of r e s e a r c h on

6

weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , p r o p e r l y r e l a t e d t o
weather o b s e r v a t i o n and weather r e s e a r c h .
(Such
a l e a d agency would, however, n o t have a u t h o r i t y
t o c o n t r o l t h e c o n t e n t of o t h e r agency programs.)
4.

It is of v a l u e and d e s i r a b l e t o m a i n t a i n m u l t i p l e
agency approach t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h
and a p p l i c a t i o n , w i t h independent f u n d i n g f o r
the d i f f e r e n t agencies.

5.

An agency t h a t h a s a major m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y

r e q u i r i n g weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r example,
augmenting w a t e r r e s o u r c e s or minimizing f o r e s t
f i r e s , must be an a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a n t i n t h e
t o t a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, b u t w i t h
t h e a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n f o c u s i n g and b r o a d l y
defining its activity.
6.

To a c h i e v e t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e a p p l i c a t i o n of
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o i t s m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s ,
a m i s s i o n agency must u n d e r s t a n d t h e b a s i c
problems, and hence must be i n v o l v e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n r e l a t e d research.
Thus, w h i l e t h e
a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n should f o c u s i t s p a r t i c i p a t i o n
i n the weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, t h e m i s s i o n
should n o t t o o narrowly c o n f i n e t h a t p a r t i c i p a tion.

7.

The v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program must s u p p o r t each
o t h e r w i t h t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e and c a p a b i l i t i e s .
I n a r e a s where s e v e r a l f e d e r a l a g e n c i e s have
needs f o r l a b o r a t o r i e s and l a r g e f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t
u s e should be made of such f a c i l i t i e s . S i m i l a r l y ,
e x i s t i n g competence s h o u l d , i n g e n e r a l , be used by
o t h e r agencies r a t h e r than duplicated. I n
p a r t i c u l a r , t h e c e n t r a l agency h a v i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y
f o r f o c u s i n g the n a t i o n a l program i n t o a p r o p e r l y
b a l a n c e d and i n t e g r a t e d t o t a l must n o t a t t e m p t t o

7

do e v e r y t h i n g i t s e l f f o r everybody: r a t h e r , it

s h o u l d b u i l d j u d i c i o u s l y upon t h e a c t i v i t i e s ,
c a p a b i l i t i e s , a n d ' m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of
t h e various p a r t i c i p a t i n g agencies.

8.

A formal procedure must be developed t o a c h i e v e
c o n t i n u i n g v i s i b i l i t y and c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h e
t o t a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program.

9
:

There must be r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l of weather
modification a c t i v i t i e s , e s p e c i a l l y a s those
a c t i v i t i e s i n c r e a s e i n magnitude and f r e q u e n c y
and become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope. This i s
r e q u i r e d e s p e c i a l l y t o p r o v i d e a mechanism f o r
p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t harmful consequences of
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t y b u t a l s e te
p e r m i t v a l i d experimentation.

OBSERVATIONS
I found t h a t the budget f i g u r e s i n t h e I C A S s e l e c t
P a n e l Report d i d n o t r e f l e c t t h e c u r r e n t s t a t u s of
Indicated rates
agency program a n a l y s i s and planning.
of growth i n the s e l e c t P a n e l Report w e r e u n r e a l i s t i c a l l y
h i g h , i n s o m e cases by a f a c t o r of t w o o r more.

8

A s w e l l as I could d e t e r m i n e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s
a r e counting i n l a r g e measure on u s i n g t h e same people
a t v a r i o u s c o n t r a c t o r s and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o h e l p c a r r y
o u t the planned programs. ESSA a p p e a r s t o have t h e
k i n d and q u a n t i t i e s of people r e q u i r e d t o mount a
vigorous program i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h , b u t
t h e a b i l i t y t o b u i l d up program a c t i v i t y a t a n y t h i n g l i k e
t h e proposed r a t e s would depend upon whether t h e s e people
can a c t u a l l y be r e a s s i g n e d from t h e i r p r e s e n t d u t i e s .
I n g e n e r a l t h e r e was a l a r g e d i s p a r i t y between p r o j e c t e d
manpower a v a i l a b i l i t i e s and r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h i s s e r v e s t o
emphasize t h a t proposed r a t e s of program growth a r e
indeed t o o h i g h , and a l s o t h a t a vigorous e f f o r t should
be made t o i n c r e a s e t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l competence i n t h e
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n f i e l d .

There a r e a f e w a r e a s of s u f f i c i e n t immediate promise
t o warrant moving ahead on e x p e r i m e n t a l o p e r a t i o n a l programs. One i s t h e s e e d i n g of o r o g r a p h i c c l o u d s i n western
a r e a s t o augment water p r e c i p i t a t i o n f o r i n c r e a s i n g water
supply. Another i s t h e s e e d i n g of d r y , s h a l l o w storms
i n t h e Rocky Mountain r e g i o n s f o r s u p p r e s s i o n of t h e
k i n d of l i g h t n i n g t h a t c a u s e s f o r e s t f i r e s .
I n other
a r e a s it appears t o o e a r l y a t t h e p r e s e n t time t o undert a k e o p e r a t i o n a l a p p l i c a t i o n s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
What is needed a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e and f o r t h e immediate
f u t u r e i s a program of r e s e a r c h , i n c l u d i n g some f i e l d
programs, d i r e c t e d toward u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e p h y s i c s and
dynamics of weather systems t o p r o v i d e a s c i e n t i f i c
b a s i s f o r f u r t h e r e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .

9

I n g e n e r a l , t h e proposed program c o n t e n t f o r a l l
f o u r a g e n c i e s a p p e a r s sound, being based on a s s e s s m e n t s of
p o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l r e t u r n s , or on a r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e
need f o r r e s e a r c h . Except f o r q u e s t i o n s of u n d e s i r a b l e
d u p l i c a t i o n , my c r i t i c i s m l i e s n o t i n t h e s u b j e c t cont e n t of proposed programs, b u t r a t h e r i n t h e a r e a s o f
program p h a s i n g , proposed r a t e s of growth, and t h e
v a l i d i t y of d o l l a r estimates.

10

PROGRAM THRUST, ASSESSMENT, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Major T h r u s t o f P r o q r a m
I t i s recommended t h a t t h e major t h r u s t o f the
N a t i o n a l Program i n Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e
immediate f u t u r e be i n t h e d i r e c t i o n of unders t a n d i n g t h e p h y s i c s and dynamics of weather
systems t o p r o v i d e a sound b a s i s f o r experimentat i o n i n and a p p l i c a t i o n of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
T h i s w i l l r e q u i r e programs of f i e l d experimentat i o n t o extend and a p p l y t h e r e s u l t s of l a b o r a t o r y
and t h e o r e t i c a l research.

Budqet
1.

I t i s recommended t h a t t h e a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i -

p a t i n g i n the weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program
g i v e e a r l y a t t e n t i o n t o t h e development of
v a l i d budget f i g u r e s , w i t h p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o r e a l i s t i c rates of growth, and v a l i d
e s t i m a t e s of manpower a v a i l a b i l i t y .
2.

While I recommend a v i g o r o u s N a t i o n a l Program
of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n , I f e e l t h a t t h e s i z e
p r o j e c t e d f o r FY 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g major
f a c i l i t i e s , might r e a s o n a b l y be l i t t l e more
t h a n h a l f of t h a t g i v e n i n t h e ICAS S e l e c t

Panel Report.
Because the v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s w e r e unable t o p r o v i d e
firm budget e s t i m a t e s , I w a s i n no p o s i t i o n t o d e v e l o p
a d e f i n i t i v e budget.
I have, however, p l o t t e d s o m e
t r e n d s i n F i g . 2 of App. V I w h i c h q u a n t i t a t e i n a rough
way m recommendations r e l a t i v e t o t h e s p e c i f i c agency
y
programs. The number3 used w e r e a r r i v e d a t from d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e a g e n c i e s and among o u r s e l v e s . The
numbers may w e l l have t o be changed a f t e r t h e a g e n c i e s
have completed t h e i r a n a l y s e s of a c t u a l requirements:

11

i n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g my
j u d g m e n t a s t o r e a s o n a b l e orders o f m a g n i t u d e .
D e p a r t m e n t o f A q r i c u l t u r e Proqram
I b e l i e v e t h a t a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program o f

a b o u t $600K i n FY 1967' g r o w i n g t o $7M i n FY 1 9 7 0 i s
justifiable.
About h a l f o f t h e FY 1 9 7 0 f i g u r e i s f o r
f a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g p u r c h a s e a n d o p e r a t i o n of s m a l l
If
a i r c r a f t a n d a much n e e d e d r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r y .
r e s e a r c h y e t t o be d o n e shows a m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d program
i n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t o be w a r r a n t e d , t h e FY 1 9 7 0 f i g u r e
c o u l d be l a r g e r .
The D e p a r t m e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e program, projected
t h r o u g h FY 1 9 7 0 , c a n be c o n s i d e r e d i n t e r m s cf two najcr

categories :
1.
2.

D i r e c t m o d i f i c a t i o n o f weather
E c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g research

T h e s e r e l a t e i n the main t o t h e s u p p r e s s i o n o f s p e c i f i c
h a r m f u l e f f e c t s o f weather phenomena, a n d a s t u d y o f
t h e e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n upon f a r m a n d f o r e s t
crops a n d o n l a n d management i n g e n e r a l .
The d i r e c t w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n p o r t i o n o f the
program i n c l u d e s p r i m a r i l y a n e x p a n d e d l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t a n d a new e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o w a r d h a i l s u p " P r o j e c t S k y f i r e of
p r e s s i o n , t h e Department s t a t e s :
t h e U . S . F o r e s t Service i s p e r f o r m i n g a n a c t i v e research
program a i m e d a t s u p p r e s s i o n o f l i g h t n i n g w h i c h c a u s e s
some 1 0 , 0 0 0 f o r e s t f i r e s a n n u a l l y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .
A f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t i s t e s t i n g the e f f e c t s o f v e r y heavy
s e e d i n g w i t h s i l v e r i o d i d e o n l i g h t n i n g storms.
The
r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w a 32 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n c l o u d to-ground l i g h t n i n g from seeded storms. A s p e c i a l l y
i n s t r u m e n t e d f i e l d area u t i l i z i n g three r a d a r s a n d a
n e t w o r k of l i g h t n i n g s e n s o r s t a t i o n s i s u s e d f o r the

12

cloud seeding experiments and for studies of lightning
characteristics. The type of lightning discharge most
likely to ignite forest fires has been identified.
High output airborne and ground based silver iodide
generators have been developed. Utilizing data from
the experimental area and a network of lightning survey
stations, physical and mathematical models of mountain
thunderstorms are being developed.
'I*

Project Skyfire is providing the basis for achieving a significant reduction in lightning damage in the
forest areas of the western United States, which is of
appreciable benefit to the country. The objectives of
Skyfire clearly fall within the mission responsibilities
of the U . S . Forest Service, which should continue to be
responsible for the project.
The present program has been underway for over
ten years. From the data presented to the Panel, it
appears that this effort has been underfunded in relation to its potential value to the agency's mission,
and to the Nation. I recommend, and regard as minimal,
the following effort proposed by Agriculture:
1.

Expanded lightning investigations at the
Missoula Experimental site and at the Northern
Forest Fire Laboratory.

2.

Performance of larger scale seeding experiments in two well instrumented experimental
areas in the National Forests of the Northern
Rockies. A capability should be developed,
by strengthening research resources already
available, to operate these experimental
areas either separately or simultaneously.

* United States Department of Agriculture, Summary of
Weather Modification Research Program presented on
June 2 8 , 1966.

13

3.

The concentration of research on determining
the seeding effects on lightning discharges
having long continued current portions.
Evidence now available indicates that these
hybrid discharges are of major importance in
igniting forest fuels.

4.

Continued research in the development of high
output silver iodide smoke generators and in
the development of seeding systems for use in
forest protection.

5.

Continued research in the development of a
lightning fire intelligence system including
storm tracking, discharge measurements, and
lightning risk evaluation in the fc?rest f i r e
danger rating program.

Most of the Agriculture budget is to support the
above program, and includes all necessary facilities
such as observational networks, operation and acquisition of research aircraft, cloud seeding equipment,
radar, and a special laboratory for lightning studies.
These facilities and the increased efforts they support
represent, in my opinion, realistic growth.
There is at the present no substantial Department
of Agriculture effort in hail suppression. The Department states: "The Department of Agriculture research
program in hail suppression is in an embryo stage. The
main activity is preliminary planning of a long range
research program.
'I*

The Department of Agriculture's miss ion responsibilities for crop protection were well documented and
defined to the Panel, and are the basis for an active
*United States Department of Agriculture, Summary of
Weather Modification Research Program presented on
June 28, 1966.

14

i n t e r e s t i n h a i l suppression. N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s
w e r e s u b m i t t e d , however, t o j u s t i f y u n d e r t a k i n g a largeS c i e n t i f i c r e s u l t s t o date
s c a l e program a t t h i s t i m e .
are inadequate f o r d e f i n i n g a v a l i d program t o a p p l y
h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o such a p p l i c a t i o n s as
crop protection.
I recommend a g a i n s t the expansion of A g r i c u l t u r e ' s
h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t s beyond a m o d e s t e f f o r t f o r t h e
t i m e being.
I recommend t h a t t h e Environmental S c i e n c e
S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , i n close c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h the
D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e , take the lead i n t h e development and conduct of a program t o understand t h e basic
physics of h a i l - p r o d u c i n g s t o r m s , and of h a i l - s u p p r e s s i o n
I recommend t h a t , as t h e n e c e s s a r y s c i e n t i f i c
mechanisms.
r a t i o n a l e i s developed, t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e take
t h e l e a d i n conducting large-scale f i e l d experiments i n
h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e western p l a i n s area
w h e r e h a i l damage t o a g r i c u l t u r e i s m o s t s e v e r e . Should
t h i s become a c h i e v a b l e i n t h e 1970 t i m e period, the t o t a l
Department of A g r i c u l t u r e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget f o r
FY 1970 would have t o be larger t h a n t h e $7M i n d i c a t e d
earlier

.

T e e c o l o g i c a l and s u p p o r t i n g research p o r t i o n of
h
t h e program i n c l u d e s three areas: b i o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e s

t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , boundary-layer energy exchange,
and remote s e n s i n g i n s u p p o r t of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
A t p r e s e n t , there i s l i t t l e w o r k under way i n t h e f i r s t
a r e a , and o n l y modest, e a r l y e f f o r t s e x i s t i n t h e l a s t
two.
I f e e l t h a t A g r i c u l t u r e ' s e x p e r i e n c e and in-house
c a p a b i l i t i e s i n such areas a s e c o l o g y , boundary-layer
energy exchange, and basic research i n s u p p o r t of t h e i r
e x c e l l e n t l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n program r e q u i r e augmentat i o n . These e f f o r t s are p e r t i n e n t t o a program of weather
m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a t i o n , and are otherwise
p a r t of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e mission.
I n some r e g a r d s , however,
I do have concern.
F i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o changes

15

i n species b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u g h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r
e x a m p l e , i n v o l v e considerable u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e l a t i v e t o
t h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s of w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n .
I t is v e r y
i m p o r t a n t , theref ore, t o e s t a b l i s h e a r l y t h e n e c e s s a r y
b a s e l i n e data f o r l a t e r c o m p a r i s o n s a n d a n a l y s e s .
S i m i l a r l y , a program i n boundary l a y e r e f f e c t s g e n e r a t e d
t h r o u g h w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n must d e a l w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e s
of e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r m l y a t r u e c a u s e - a n d - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n ship.

I c o n c l u d e t h a t the b u d g e t s u b m i s s i o n b y A g r i c u l t u r e f o r research i n t h e e c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g research
p o r t i o n s of t h e p r o g r a m i s i n e x c e s s of the present
capability.
N e v e r t h e l e s s , I f e e l t h a t growth i n
these f u n d a m e n t a l areas i s d e s i r a b l e a n d s h o u l d be
supported.
D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r Proqram

I recommend a D e p a r t m e n t o f I n t e r i o r b u d g e t f o r
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s of a b o u t $3M i n FY 1967
g r o w i n g t o a b o u t $35M i n FY 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g n e e d e d
f a c i l i t i e s and o p e r a t i o n .
The main t h r u s t of I n t e r i o r ' s
p r o g r a m i s i n t h e area of p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n .
The D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r has b e e n a s s i g n e d n a t i o n a l
w a t e r r e s o u r c e management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , a n d t h u s a n
e f f o r t i n t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n a n d u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e w a t e r
r e s o u r c e is c l e a r l y a n I n t e r i o r m i s s i o n a n d i s i n t h e
national interest.
The s i n g u l a r o b j e c t i v e of I n t e r i o r ' s A t m o s p h e r i c
Water R e s o u r c e s Program has b e e n t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t e c h n i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c f e a s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s i n g the w a t e r
s u p p l y f o r B u r e a u of R e c l a m a t i o n p r o j e c t s t h r o u g h
weather modification.
Research r e s u l t s t o d a t e show
s u f f i c i e n t promise t h a t t h e p r o g r a m h a s b e e n r e o r i e n t e d
t o r e f l e c t t h e e v e n t u a l goal of t h e "effective,

16

b e n e f i c i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s atmospheric
w a t e r resources.
'I*

T h e program t o

gate

h a s included, a p p r o p r i a t e l y ,
cloud-seeding e f f o r t s , research i n v o l v i n g the a c q u i s i t i o n of f i e l d d a t a i n a l l the e x p e r i m e n t a l areas, and
climatology.
I n t e r i o r ' s program h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d on a number of
f i e l d experiments i n t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s . A program a t
t h e U n i v e r s i t y of Wyoming devoted to t h e s t u d y of cap
c l o u d s h a s produced amounts o f w a t e r which appear to
o f f e r promise o f economic s i g n i f i c a n c e . I n t e r i o r ' s
Basin program ranges f r o m t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s of c l o u d
p h y s i c s t o a c t u a l m o d i f i c a t i o n o p e r a t i o n s , and i n c l u d e s
t h e development of i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n and d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n
systems.
The Southern S i e r r a program h a s s t u d i e d t h e effect i v e n e s s of cloud seeding i n t h a t s p e c i a l i z e d area.
The P a c i f i c Northwest program h a s i n c l u d e d experiments
on s h i f t i n g p r e c i p i t a t i o n from areas of s u r p l u s t o
a r e a s of d e f i c i t .

I n Washington and Oregon the windward s l o p e s of
c o a s t a l mountains r e c e i v e l a r g e amounts of p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e run-off o f w h i c h r e t u r n s t o t h e ocean unused.
F a r t h e r i n l a n d , t h e r e a r e areas where t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n
i s l e s s t h a n one t e n t h a s g r e a t .
I f it w e r e p o s s i b l e
t o s h i f t some of t h e l o s t p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e economic
b e n e f i t would be g r e a t .
The r e s e a r c h program submitted by I n t e r i o r t o I C A S
r e f l e c t s q u i t e w e l l a l l a r e a s of s t u d y t h a t w i l l be
r e q u i r e d t o s u p p o r t proposed i n t e n s i v e f i e l d experiments

*Plans f o r t h e Department of I n t e r i o r ' s Atmospheric
Water Resources Program, p r e s e n t e d t o ICAS on May 1 3 ,
1966.

17

i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation such as t h o s e mentioned
above. I conclude t h a t t h e program i s s o u n d l y b a s e d ,
is b e i n g competently c a r r i e d o u t , i s of b e n e f i t t o t h e
c o u n t r y , and s h o u l d be c o n t i n u e d . I f e e l t h a t t h e
proposed r a t e s of growth exceed I n t e r i o r ' s in-house
and p o t e n t i a l c o n t r a c t o r c a p a b i l i t y and I recommend t h e
l o w e r r a t e of growth f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h area correspondi n g t o t h e budget f i g u r e s g i v e n above.
T h e s u p p o r t i n g budget m a t e r i a l s u b m i t t e d t o t h e
P a n e l d i s c u s s e d t h e establishment of f i e l d l a b o r a t o r i e s

which would i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g n e c e s s a r y f a c i l i t i e s :
r a d a r and rawinsonde i n s t a l l a t i o n s , b a l l o o n i n f l a t i o n
s h e l t e r s , r e p a i r s h o p s , a i r p o r t s , temporary h o u s i n g ,
etc.
I f e e l t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of an e x t e n s i v e
~ets-mrk
of such field s t a t i o n s i s a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l l y
and e v e n t u a l l y s h o u l d be accomplished w i t h i n t h e Department of I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n . I estimate t h a t n o t more t h a n
t e n f i e l d s i t e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t with t h e a p p a r e n t potent i a l i t i e s of t h e Department-of I n t e r i o r through t h e
FY 1970 t i m e period.
The c o s t per f i e l d s i t e a s deduced
from t h e m a t e r i a l provided b y I n t e r i o r i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y
2% m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g such equipment i t e m s a s
weather r a d a r , rawinsondes, t e l e m e t r y s e t s , t r a c e r
d i s p e n s e r s , and a t o t a l of a b o u t e i g h t t w i n e n g i n e a i r c r a f t f o r t h e t e n f i e l d sites.
This equipment i s
r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e proposed s i t e implementation s e t
f o r t h i n the m a t e r i a l supplied b y I n t e r i o r .
I recommend t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e w i t h ESSA i n

a c c o m p l i s h i n g I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n of augmenting p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t o r of the c o u n t r y .
I b e l i e v e t h a t there are s i g n i f i c a n t advantages t o
I n t e r i o r ' s d e v e l o p i n g a f i r m , c l e a r l y d e f i n e d agreement
w i t h ESSA t o accomplish t h i s c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t . Such
a n arrangement would s p r e a d t h e base of t h e government's
e x p e r i e n c e i n t h i s f i e l d . I t would p e r m i t ESSA t o
i n t e g r a t e the p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation a c t i v i t y w i t h
a b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s and

18

dynamics of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n and w i t h weather
r e s e a r c h i n g e n e r a l . A l s o , it would p r o v i d e I n t e r i o r
w i t h valuable a s s i s t a n c e i n i t s important w a t e r '
r e s o u r c e s program. I f such a c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h ESSA
i s a r r a n g e d , E S S A ' s a s s i s t a n c e may p e r m i t a c c e l e r a t i o n
of the p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation program, which i n
t u r n would r e q u i r e e a r l i e r i n c r e a s e s i n t h e I n t e r i o r
budget t h a n a r e i n d i c a t e d i n t h e c u r v e of App. V I .
The c o l l a b o r a t i o n recommended above i s one example
of how t w o a g e n c i e s may p r o f i t a b l y work t o g e t h e r t o
achieve t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e goals.
I t may be e x p e c t e d t h a t
many such o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l a r i s e i n t h e weather
m o d i f i c a t i o n program, and f u l l advantage s h o u l d be t a k e n
of t h o s e o p p o r t u n i t i e s .
The development and o p e r a t i o n of
a l a r g e - s c a l e weather s i m u l a t i o n f a c i l i t y w i l l b e n e f i t
from multiagency c o l l a b o r a t i o n i n i t s d e s i g n and u s e .
Although I recommend below t h a t ESSA be t h e prime mover
i n the a r e a of s e v e r e s t o r m m o d i f i c a t i o n , it is r e c o g n i z e d
t h a t I n t e r i o r and A g r i c u l t u r e have a n u l t i m a t e i n t e r e s t
h e r e , and one can foresee t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of c o l l a b o r a t i v e
e f f o r t s among ESSA, I n t e r i o r , and A g r i c u l t u r e .
Like t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , t h e Department of
I n t e r i o r h a s an i n t e r e s t i n and concern w i t h t h e e c o l o g i c a l

e f f e c t s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
I n p l a n n i n g f o r programs
i n atmospheric w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , t h e Department i s i n c l u d i n g p r o v i s i o n f o r a p p r o p r i a t e s t u d i e s i n this a r e a .
ESSA

Proqram

I recommend a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget f o r ESSA
of a b o u t $1.5M i n FY 1967, r i s i n g t o a b o u t $25M i n
F 1970. I s u p p o r t t h e program c o n t e n t , b u t q u e s t i o n
Y
t h e proposed r a t e of growth t o $20M i n FY 1968. While
ESSA demonstrated t h e n e c e s s a r y d i v e r s i t y of in-house
t a l e n t , I a m unable t o judge whether ESSA i s a b l e t o
r e a s s i g n a l l t h e needed p e r s o n n e l from o t h e r a r e a s t o
t h e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t .

19

The proposed ESSA program is a broad research and
development effort of significant magnitude and content.
It covers the many areas that must be understood to
attack and solve the problem of attaining beneficial
weather control. The following technical areas, from
a list provided by ESSA, illustrate the breadth of the
proposed effort: cloud physics; atmospheric electricity;
statistical design and evaluation; hurricane structure
and modification; severe local storm structure; atmospheric contamination; inadvertent modification; computer
modeling; global cloud analysis, primarily satellite
work; drought and climatic variations: atmosphere
radiation and heat balance; sea/air interaction;
transport and diffusion plume tracing; specialized
instrument development: hydrometeorology; socioeconomics ; and ecology.

I believe that a broad research and development
effort of the general content of the proposed ESSA
program is essential to a significant national weather
modification effort. I recommend that ESSA have the
responsibility for the research and development that
is essential to a viable national weather modification
program, supplementing and integrating the research
programs of the mission-oriented agencies. But, I
recommend that ESSA not duplicate the programs of the
mission-oriented agencies discussed above, and the
basic research programs of NSF discussed below. I
strongly support the ESSA mission responsibility in
areas such as severe storm suppression, hurricane
modification, and large-scale long-range atmospheric
modeling.
The following areas are considered essential for
establishing the broad base of research necessary for
the national weather modification effort. The descriptions given below were extracted from the material
provided by ESSA. The recommended funding permits
inclusion of these activities in the ESSA program.

20

1. M o d i f i c a t i o n of Winter Lake Storms: These
storms form i n e a r l y w i n t e r when s h a l l o w c o n t i n e n t a l
c o l d a i r b l o w s a c r o s s the u n f r o z e n l a k e s , p i c k i n g up
The l o c a l
m o i s t u r e from t h e warm w a t e r s u r f a c e .
c h a r a c t e r of t h e storm would p e r m i t over-seeding and
r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n .

M o d i f i c a t i o n of C o l l o i d a l S t a b i l i t y : A n
a t t e m p t would be made t o s e e d t r o p i c a l m a r i t i m e c l o u d s
with condensation n u c l e i i n order t o increase t h e i r
c o l l o i d a l s t a b i l i t y and t o p r e v e n t r a i n .
This a c t i v i t y
may e n t e r a s e m i - o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t e d u r i n g FY 1972.
'

2.

3. A q I Diffusion:
T h i s p r o j e c t supplements the
r e s e a r c h under i t e m 1 above.
I t is b e l i e v e d t h a t the
v e r t i c a l d i f f u s i o n of AgI can be s t u d i e d i n t h e w i n t e r
i n t h e G r e a t Lakes Region d u r i n g p r e s e n c e of extended
supercooled c l o u d l a y e r s . AgI w i l l be g e n e r a t e d i n
g r e a t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a t t h e s u r f a c e . The a n a l y s i s of
i t s e f f e c t on t h e c l o u d deck w i l l be done b y radar.
4.
Cumulus D y n a m i c s : T h i s i s p a r t of P r o j e c t
Storm Fury.
I t i n v o l v e s the c o n t i n u e d s t u d y of cumulus
dynamics by means of t h e release of heat of f u s i o n
through s e e d i n g w i t h p y r o t e c h n i c s .
A two-year c y c l e of
randomized f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i s f o r e s e e n i n t h e
Barbados I s l a n d a r e a , which p e r m i t s s t u d y of b o t h
m a r i t i m e and c o n t i n e n t a l c l o u d s .

5. H a i l Suppression:
S e v e r a l approaches are
contemplated:
(a) a f i e l d p r o j e c t t o s t u d y h a i l s t o n e
s t r u c t u r e t o d e t e r m i n e where i n t h e c l o u d the h a i l s t o n e
o r i g i n a t e d , (b) a i r b o r n e s t u d i e s of h a i l s t o r m s t o
a s s e s s t h e r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e of mothercloud and
a n v i l i n t h e h a i l p r o c e s s , and (c) r a d a r s t u d i e s t o
a n a l y z e f u r t h e r t h e "anatomy" of t h e h a i l s t o r m .
A r e a s of a c t i v i t y w i l l be Norman, Oklahoma;

Boulder, Colorado: and F l a g s t a f f , Arizona.

21

6.
I n a d v e r t e n t M o d i f i c a t i o n : I n a d v e r t e n t modificat i o n of the weather o c c u r s because of p o l l u t i o n of t h e
atmosphere by a r t i f i c i a l gaseous and p a r t i c u l a t e c o n s t i t u e n t s , and changes i n s u r f a c e c h a r a c t e r and a l b e d o due t c ?
a g r i c u l t u r e and c o n s t r u c t i o n . The effects of a i r p o l l u t i o n
become a p p a r e n t i n three a r e a s : atmospheric c h e m i s t r y ,
o p t i c s , and e l e c t r i c i t y , a l l o f which are s t u d i e d i n t h i s
program.

(a) Benchmark Proqram: The c o n c e n t r a t i o n of
a t m o s p h e r i c c o n s t i t u e n t s , n a t u r a l l y and a r t i f i c i a l l y
g e n e r a t e d , w i l l be measured a t v a r i o u s l o c a t i o n s . The
Mauna L o a O b s e r v a t o r y and t h e Boulder s t a t i o n s w i l l
take p a r t i n t h e f u l l program. Other s t a t i o n s may be
selected i n t h e E a s t e r n U . S . and i n t h e n o r t h e r n and
s o u t h e r n hemispheres. The program w i l l b e g i n by
m o n i t o r i n g 0 3 and C 0 2 c o n t e n t s . The f i r s t phase w i l l
c o n c e r n i t s e l f w i t h t h e development of a CO2 m o n i t o r i n g
method.
E v e n t u a l l y , t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of s u l p h a t e s ,
n i t r a t e s , c h l o r i d e s , and b i o l o g i c a l contaminants w i l l
a l s o be monitored.
Albedo, t u r b i d i t y , r a d i a t i o n , a e r o s o l s :
I t i s planned t o s t a r t on a s y s t e m a t i c r e s e a r c h program
t o s t u d y t h e s e parameters.
(b)

(c) Atmospheric e l e c t r i c parameters: I t i s
planned t o s t u d y t h e e l e c t r i c a l parameters ( p o t e n t i a l
g r a d i e n t , c o n d u c t i v i t y , a i r - e a r t h c u r r e n t ) of t h e und i s t u r b e d weather u s i n g radiosondes a l r e a d y developed.
These p a r a m e t e r s may prove t o be a powerful t o o l f o r
m o n i t o r i n g n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l a i r p o l l u t i o n .
7.
Study of Rain and Snow P r e c i p i t a t i o n :
The
importance of t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n
It
p a r t i c l e s f o r e f f e c t i v e r a i n o u t must be s t u d i e d .
i s planned t o conduct f i e l d experiments u s i n g r a d a r , and
r a i n d r o p s p e c t r o m e t e r s , and t o develop t h e o r e t i c a l
p r e c i p i t a t i o n models.

Research under t h i s p r o j e c t w i 11 p r o b a b l y r e q u i r e
many y e a r s .

22

Laboratory S t u d i e s :
are planned:
8.

A number of in-house

studies

(a) C o n s t r u c t i o n of a f l u i d m o d e l f o r t h e s t u d y
of i n f l u x c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o t o r n a d i c storms.
(b) N u c l e a t i o n s t u d i e g : S t u d i e s are planned
t o l e a r n more a b o u t the a c t i o n of s i l v e r i o d i d e as a
f r e e z i n g o r a s a s u b l i m a t i o n n u c l e u s , and about i t s
a g i n g under i r r a d i a t i o n b y t h e sun. I n a d d i t i o n t o these
s t u d i e s , v a r i o u s other n u c l e a t i n g a g e n t s , such a s l e a d
T h i s may lead t o t h e d i s c o v e r y
o x i d e , w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d .
of less expensive materials w i t h a d i s p e r s a b i l i t y e q u i v a l e n t
t o A g I , and u s a b l e i n p y r o t e c h n i c d i s p e n s e r s .

9.
Water Budget of Storms: L i t t l e i s known of the
w a t e r budget of e x t r a t r o p i c a l storms. Analyses b y Bradbury,
E l l i o t t , and A t l a s , and b y Wexler i n d i c a t e t h a t w a t e r
storage o c c u r s i n such storms and t h a t t h e r e f o r e chances
of r a i n augmentation e x i s t . S y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n s
however are missing.
The same i s t r u e of c o n v e c t i v e
storms. Only f o r t h e case of a i r m a s s thunderstorms does
a n a n a l y s i s e x i s t (by Braham), w h i l e the w a t e r b u d g e t
of h a i l s t o r m s o r t o r n a d o s i s unknown. One a n a l y s i s of
t h e i n f l u x of a i r i n t o these storms gave v a l u e s of more
t h a n 100 c u b i c k i l o m e t e r s i n one minute.

P l a n s c a l l f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d approach.
In the
i n i t i a l phase t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a b l e w a t e r w i l l be s t u d i e d
u s i n g a network of e x i s t i n g U . S . weather i n s t r u m e n t s .
T h i s s t u d y w i l l be d e s i g n e d t o f u r n i s h the i n f l u x of
vapor a c r o s s t h e s h o r e s of the Gulf of Mexico f o r c e r t a i n
weather s i t u a t i o n s , o r f r o m t h e Gulf of C a l i f o r n i a , f o r
i n s t a n c e , f o r t h e s h o r t p e r i o d of the summer monsoon
which i s s o i m p o r t a n t t o Arizona.
The second phase
c a l l s f o r a m e t e o r o l o g i c a n a l y t i c s t u d y of t h e w a t e r
budget of s t o r m s , supplemented b y a i r c r a f t and r a d i o s o n d e
network d a t a c o l l e c t i o n .

23

1 . Fair weather Cumulus Studies: There has been
0
considerable progress in computer modeling of cumulus
convection. Further progress requires the input of
data measured inside cumulus clouds. It is intended to
initiate a program of in-cloud measurements using novel
instrumentation, Temperature will be measured using
remote IR techniques from the penetrating aircraft: other
parameters, e.g. updraft and liquid content, will be
measured as instrumentation is developed.

1 . Atmospheric Chemistry: This project is geared
1
to the application of chemical analysis methods to atmospheric physics. It is intended to measure, record, and
analyze the chemical constituents of clouds, rain, and
other precipitation. Ion conductivity, pH value, and ion
identity, are some of the parameters which will be recorded
at mountain stations as well as on aircraft.
12. Instrument Development: Instruments must be
developed to perform over the whole range of atmospheric
parameters for use in aircraft as well as on the ground.

Other equally important areas of investigation will
arise as the entire program gets moving. I believe that
projects in the above areas of basic research can now
be implemented and are within the technical capability
of ESSA.
An important recommendation of the National Academy
of Sciences was "the early establishment of several carefully designed, randomized, seeding experiments, planned
in such a way as to permit assessment of the seedability
of a variety of storm types."* One of these should be in
the eastern sector of the U . S .
As noted above under the

*Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate
Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences,
National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council;
"Weather and Climate Modification, Problems and Prospects,
volume I- SUImtary and Recommendations, Publication No. 13508
1966, pg 23.

24

s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I propose t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e
w i t h ESSA on a l a r g e - s c a l e f i e l d program i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n
augmentation i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t i o n i n
keeping w i t h the c o n c e p t t h a t t h e Department of I n t e r i o r
h a s m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s enhancement
while ESSA should conduct a b r o a d program of e x p l o r a t o r y
r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l s and s c i e n t i f i c bases f o r
A v e r y i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n t h a t ESSA
weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
undertake t h i s work w i t h I n t e r i o r under a memorandum of
u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s so t h a t ESSA may i n t e g r a t e t h i s a c t i v i t y
w i t h t h e i r b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s and
dynamics of weather,
The ESSA ongoing e f f o r t s i n s e v e r e s t o r m s and

h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h , and the development and u s e of t h e
Norman, O k l a h o m a , f a c i l i t y , s h o u l d be augmented a t a b o u t
t h e r a t e proposed b y ESSA.
T h e N a t i o n a l Severe Storms L a b o r a t o r y (NSSL) h a s a

comprehensive o b s e r v a t i o n a l f a c i l i t y used t o d e f i n e
b e t t e r t h e c o n d i t i o n s which spawn s e v e r e s t o r m s , t h e
l o c a l c i r c u l a t i o n s which are the s t o r m , and t h e a s s o c i a t e d
budgets of w a t e r s u b s t a n c e and energy, During t h e
o b s e r v a t i o n a l period April-June 1966, t h i s i n c l u d e d
c a l i b r a t e d Doppler and c o n v e n t i o n a l r a d a r s , networks of
56 s u r f a c e weather s t a t i o n s , 1 7 5 r a i n g a g e s , 10 r a d i o sonde s t a t i o n s provided b y t h e U. S A i r Force and t h e
.
U S Army, and a 1600-foot i n s t r u m e n t e d t e l e v i s i o n
. .
tower, c l o u d cameras, and s e v e r a l i n s t r u m e n t e d a i r c r a f t
of ESSA and USAF. A l i g h t n i n g l o c a t i n g system i s under
development a l s o , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e e l e c t r i c a l energy
of storms can be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t o r n a d o development
and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n r e v e a l e d b y r a d a r .
ESSA f e e l s t h a t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e
storms can be o b t a i n e d by i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the observat i o n s i n l i g h t of c o n s t r a i n i n g p r i n c i p l e s of m a s s
c o n t i n u i t y and e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n o r c o n v e r s i o n ,

25

I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s and d a t a a n a l y s i s ,
some i m p o r t a n t p r e s e n t and planned e f f o r t s a r e :
Round-the-clock r a d a r s u r v e i l l a n c e and
data r e c o r d i n g .
T h i s should p r o v i d e means
f o r d e t e r m i n i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s among s e v e r e
storm o c c u r r e n c e s and topography, t i m e of
day, s e a s o n , and s y n o p t i c m e t e o r o l o g i c a l
p a r a m e t e r s , and w i l l provide a body of cont r o l d a t a f o r the better e v a l u a t i o n of
a t t e m p t s b y NSSL and o t h e r a g e n c i e s t o
.modify Oklahoma storms.
Continued development of computer programs
for p r o c e s s i n g t h e voluminous radar and mesonetwork d a t a .
I n s t a l l a t i o n of a d d i t i o n a l mesonetwork s u r f a c e
s t a t i o n s between e x i s t i n g ones now located 10
t o 15 m i l e s a p a r t . A d d i t i o n a l s t a t i o n s are
needed t o record a d e q u a t e l y t h e scales of motion
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of severe s t o r m s .
C o n s t r u c t i o n of a l0cm-Doppler r a d a r f o r
improved v e l o c i t y measuring c a p a b i l i t y a t
l o n g e r range.
Development of improved means f o r d i r e c t d i g i t a l
r e c o r d i n g and p r o c e s s i n g of c o n v e n t i o n a l and
Doppler r a d a r d a t a .
S c i e n t i s t s a t t h e N a t i o n a l H u r r i c a n e Research Laborat o r y , M i a m i , F l o r i d a , and c o o p e r a t i n g groups are s t u d y i n g
t h e h u r r i c a n e and i t s environment, and o t h e r t r o p i c a l
c i r c u l a t i o n s t h a t e i t h e r may become a h u r r i c a n e or a f f e c t
t h e development of one. The f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n f u r n i s h e d
b y ESSA g i v e s t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e h u r r i c a n e research
program.

W e can now describe the s t r u c t u r e of a
m a t u r e h u r r i c a n e i n great d e t a i l and c a n even
estimate p r o b a b l e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e s t r u c t u r e
w i t h t i m e i n the same h u r r i c a n e or b e t w e e n
hurricanes.
O u r knowledge of t h e s t r u c t u r e
of d e v e l o p i n g and d i s s i p a t i n g t r o p i c a l
c y c l o n e s i s less complete, b u t even i n
these c a s e s many d a t a have been c o l l e c t e d
and analyzed.

i n recent
y e a r s i n d e v e l o p i n g mathematical models of
hurricanes.
The most advanced of t h e s e
models i s now b e i n g used f o r p a r t i a l l y
e v a l u a t i n g simple m o d i f i c a t i o n h y p o t h e s e s .
G r e a t advances have been made

I n s p i t e of a l l t h e p r o g r e s s t h a t h a s been
made i n h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h i n r e c e n t y e a r s ,
much needs t o be done b e f o r e w e c a n (1) g a i n
a n adequate u n d e r s t a n d i n g of many d e t a i l s of
the energy p r o c e s s e s i n h u r r i c a n e s , (2) s a t i s f a c t o r i l y explain or p r e d i c t t h e formation
and i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of t r o p i c a l c y c l o n e s , o r
( 3 ) d e v e l o p r e a l i s t i c and a c c u r a t e dynamical
n u m e r i c a l models of h u r r i c a n e s .

When we can s i m u l a t e a h u r r i c a n e w i t h a good
numerical model w e w i l l have accomplished a
major b r e a k t h r o u g h i n t h e e f f o r t s t o f i n d a
t e c h n i q u e f o r modifying these storms. Two
of t h e major d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e h u r r i c a n e
models c u r r e n t l y b e i n g tested are the
mathematical f o r m u l a t i o n s b o t h f o r the
f r i c t i o n l a y e r a n d f o r the t r a n s f e r of
e n e r g y b e t w e e n t h e e a r t h and the atmosphere
a n d through t h e lower l a y e r s of t h e atmosphere. U n t i l our knowledge and u n d e r s t a n d i n g
of these p r o c e s s e s i s g r e a t l y improved, it
i s d o u b t f u l i f we w i l l be a b l e t o s i m u l a t e
a hurricane w i t h a t r u l y s a t i s f a c t o r y
numerical model.

W would have a b e t t e r chance of developing
e
good mathematical f o r m u l a t i o n s f o r t h e
h u r r i c a n e f r i c t i o n l a y e r and f o r t h e t r a n s f e r
of energy i f w e had t h e r i g h t k i n d of d a t a
f o r t e s t i n g t h e f o r m u l a t i o n s t h a t a r e proposed,
W need t o know t h e r a t e and means of t h e
e
t r a n s f e r of momentum, s e n s i b l e h e a t , and water
e
vapor with i t s l a t e n t h e a t . W should be a b l e
t o determine t h e s e t h i n g s i f w had good
e
measurements of t h e v e r t i c a l and h o r i z o n t a l
w i n d components, temperature, and humidity a t
a number of l e v e l s from s e a l e v e l up through
t h e f i r s t few thousand f e e t of atmosphere.
These d a t a a r e needed f o r t h e t u r b u l e n t a s w e l l
a s t h e l a r g e r s c a l e s of motion.
E f f o r t s t o a c q u i r e a better understanding of
t h e g e n e s i s p r o c e s s , and t o develop t e c h n i q u e s
f o r p r e d i c t i n g h u r r i c a n e formation and f u r t h e r
i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n a r e l i k e w i s e handicapped b y
l a c k of d a t a .
T h i s i s due t o t h e f a c t t h a t
t h e favored g e n e s i s a r e a s a r e o u t s i d e t h e
c o n v e n t i o n a l d a t a networks,
Some of t h e needed
d a t a can be o b t a i n e d by r e s e a r c h a i r c r a f t .
C o l l e c t i o n of t h e s e d a t a could be g r e a t l y
a c c e l e r a t e d , however, with more a i r c r a f t of
g r e a t e r range.
The improved weather s a t e l l i t e s
a r e already helping this data collection e f f o r t
and t h e synchronous s a t e l l i t e should be of
I t is hoped t h a t t h e t r o p i c a l
great assistance.
experiment and t h e improved d a t a c o l l e c t i o n
e f f o r t s proposed f o r the World Weather Watch
w i l l a l s o be u s e f u l .
Along w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e d e f f o r t s a t s p e c i a l i z e d
c o l l e c t i o n , t h e r e should be more t h e o r e t i c a l
These should i n c l u d e n o t o n l y
investigations.
t h e s t u d y of t h e h u r r i c a n e b u t a l s o t h e o t h e r
It i s u n l i k e l y t h a t
circulations i n the tropics.
w e w i l l e v e r f u l l y understand t h e h u r r i c a n e
u n t i l we have a b e t t e r understanding of i t s
environment.

28

A s a n o t e of c a u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s h o u l d be made
on t h e complexity of t h e proposed r e s e a r c h . A s i l l u s t r a t e d

b y c u r r e n t p r o g r e s s w i t h P r o j e c t s t o r m Fury, t h e probab i l i t y of a c q u i r i n g a h u r r i c a n e f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n purp0se.c
a t t h i s t i m e s e e m s t o be a b o u t t h r e e storms e v e r y t w o
years.
Indeed, c u r r e n t e f f o r t s have y e t t o a c q u i r e t h c
f i r s t such storm w e l l i n t o t h e second y e a r of o p e r a t i o n .
For h u r r i c a n e s t u d i e s and p o s s i b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n , e x p e n s i v e
f a c i l i t i e s such as f l i g h t research a i r c r a f t are r e q u i r e d
on a s e a s o n a l basis, w i t h t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t n a t u r a l
v a r i a n c e i n t h e desired weather p a t t e r n p r o h i b i t s a
p r e d i c t i o n of how l o n g such r e s e a r c h must be c o n t i n u e d
b e f o r e meaningful r e s u l t s can be expected.
I recommend t h a t t h e proposed e f f o r t by ESSA i n t h e
a r e a s of s e v e r e storm and h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h be s u p p o r t e d
and p u r s u e d v i g o r o u s l y .
N S F Proqram

I recommend an i n c r e a s e i n t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e
Foundation (NSF) weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget t o a b o u t $ 5 M
i n F Y 1967, growing t o $20M i n FY 1970. The F Y 1970 f i g u r e
i n c l u d e s $10M f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e simulat i o n f a c i l i t y f o r basic r e s e a r c h i n c l o u d p h y s i c s t o be
erected and o p e r a t e d b y t h e N a t i o n a l Center f o r Atmospheric
Research JNCAR), I f p l a n n i n g f o r t h e f a c i l i t y moves r a p i d l y ,
some of t h e $10M might be needed e a r l i e r t h a n FY 1970.

The N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation proposes t o i n c r e a s e
t h e s u p p o r t of basic and c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h
which i s a p p r o p r i a t e and fundamental t o any program of
The N S F program should be directed
toward t h r e e i m p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e s :
(1) t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t
of a sound s c i e n t i f i c f o u n d a t i o n f o r an i n t e n s i f i e d program
o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , ( 2 ) the s u b s t a n t i a l involvement of
u n i v e r s i t i e s i n t h i s area of r e s e a r c h , and ( 3 ) t h e product i o n of s u b s t a n t i a l numbers of new h i g h l y t r a i n e d p e o p l e f o r
t h i s work.
N S F does n o t p l a n t o and " w i l l n o t d u p l i c a t e

29

research performed b y m i s s i o n a g e n c i e s , b u t w i l l s u p p o r t
r e s e a r c h i n t h o s e m u l t i - d i s c i p l i n e areas which w i l l
supplement o r e x t e n d o t h e r weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h
a l r e a d y underway and w i l l develop t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s
of knowledge and manpower i n new and i m a g i n a t i v e a r e a s . " "
The N S F r e s e a r c h program t o be conducted p r i m a r i l y
a t u n i v e r s i t i e s and NCAR w i l l i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g areas
of research:
1. Cloud Dynamics: B a s i c s t u d i e s w i l l be c o n t i n u e d
on t h e motions of c l o u d s , and t h e e f f e c t s upon t h e i r
growth or decay produced b y the release or a b s o r p t i o n of
t h e h e a t of c o n d e n s a t i o n and h e a t of f u s i o n which may be
produced o r induced b y n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l s t i m u l u s .
These stuLies w i l l be c a r r i e d on t h r o u g h a c t u a l observat i o n s of c l o u d s i n t h e i r n a t u r a l environment, i n s i m c l a t i o n chambers i n the l a b o r a t o r y , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l models
u s i n g h i g h speed computers.
2.
Ice Formation i n Clouds: The r o l e of t h e
f o r m a t i o n of ice i n c l o u d s i n producing r a i n d r o p f o r m a t i o n
w i l l be i n t e n s i v e l y s t u d i e d .
The mechanism whereby
a t m o s p h e r i c n u c l e i , b o t h n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l , become
e f f e c t i v e i n f r e e z i n g supercooled d r o p l e t s w i l l be f u r t h e r
s t u d i e d , and the importance of t h i s p r o c e s s i n c o m p e t i t i o n
w i t h c o a l e s c e n c e and s u b l i m a t i o n w i l l be assessed. T h e
means whereby ice c r y s t a l s grow t o h a i l s t o n e s i z e i n
s e v e r e s t o r m s w i l l a l s o r e c e i v e a t t e n t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y as
i t r e l a t e s t o p o s s i b l e c o n t r o l mechanisms.
3.
Coalescence: The process whereby c l o u d p a r t i c l e s
combine t o f o r m r a i n d r o p s i n warm c l o u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d .
The r e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s p r o c e s s t o t h e q u a n t i t y and
e f f e c t i v e n e s s of n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l l y i n t r o d u c e d
c o n d e n s a t i o n n u c l e i w i l l be observed u s i n g a i r b o r n e

*

" C r i t i q u e b y Presenter" e n c l o s u r e t o June 2 8 , 1966, N S F
l e t t e r t o H o m e r E. N e w e l l s i g n e d b y P.H. Wyckoff, Program
D i r e c t o r f o r Weather Modification.

30

i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c l o u d chambers o r c l o u d
tunnels i n the laboratory, or by t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s
T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l
u s i n g mathematical models.
f o r c e s t o c o a l e s c e n c e p r o c e s s e s w i l l a l s o be s t u d i e d .
4.
Cloud E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n : The mechanism of c h a r g e
g e n e r a t i o n i n c l o u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d i n n a t u r a l c l o u d s
c o n t a i n i n g e i t h e r s u p e r c o o l e d w a t e r o r ice. The e f f e c t
of f r e e z i n g of c l o u d d r o p l e t s on the o r i e n t a t i o n and
l o c a t i o n of charge c e n t e r s w i l l be observed. The e f f e c t
of charge t r a n s f e r upon t h e s t r u c t u r e and dynamics of
t h e cloud before and a f t e r l i g h t n i n g s t r o k e f o r m a t i o n w i l l
be a s s e s s e d .
5 . Computer A n a l y s i s : Advances w i l l be made i n
computer t e c h n o l o g y i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s and a t NCAR t o
p e r m i t m o r e a c c u r a t e mathematical modeling of t h e l a r g e
s c a l e motions of t h e e a r t h ' s atmosphere l e a d i n g t o the
e v a l u a t i o n of p o s s i b l e p r a c t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s f o r a more
d e s i r a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of m o i s t u r e b e a r i n g a i r masses
o v e r drought areas o r r e g i o n s of p r e c i p i t a t i o n e x c e s s .
The accompanying long-term changes i n c l i m a t i c s t r u c t u r e
w i l l also be c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d .

Socio-Economic, Leqal, and E c o l o q i c a l Consequences
of Weather and Climate M o d i f i c a t i o n :
The recommendations
of t h e N S F S p e c i a l Commission on Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n t o
assess t h e s o c i a l , economic, l e g a l and e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c t
of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n upon s o c i e t y w i l l be t h e o b j e c t
o f i n t e n s i v e r e s e a r c h i n o r d e r t o i s o l a t e and e v a l u a t e
t h o s e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s which w i l l produce the most
s i g n i f i c a n t impact upon s o c i e t y due t o t h e s u c c e s s f u l
a p p l i c a t i o n of weather and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s
b y mission a g e n c i e s .
6.

The u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o be
supported b y NSF p r o v i d e s t h e primary mechanism f o r producing
t h e numbers of t r a i n e d s c i e n t i s t s t h a t the t o t a l program w i l l
require.
E x c e s s i v e f u n d i n g from NSF, however, would

31

monopolize a major s o u r c e of q u a l i f i e d p e r s o n n e l t h a t t h e
I recommend, t h e r e f o r e ,
o t h e r agency programs must r e l y on.
a f u n d i n g l e v e l f o r NSF s u f f i c i e n t t o s u p p o r t a b o u t h a l f of
what NSF e s t i m a t e s t o be t h e t o t a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e
academic community i n t h e area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n
i n a d d i t i o n t o a c t i v i t i e s a t NCAR.
T h i s l e v e l of s u p p o r t
would c l e a r l y p e r m i t NSF t o fund programs a d e q u a t e l y t h a t
a r e now b e i n g "stretched" and would p r o v i d e t h e s t i m u l u s
needed t o b e t t e r s a t i s f y t h e NSF program s t a t e d above. I
recommend f u r t h e r , because of t h e fundamental importance of
a c h i e v i n g t h e three o b j e c t i v e s as e a r l y as p o s s i b l e , t h a t
t h e N S F b u d g e t be i n c r e a s e d immediately t o the l e v e l s
s u g g e s t e d above.
Capital Facilities

I s u p p o r t , i n g e n e r a l , the agency p r o p o s a l s
f o r e x t e n s i v e c a p i t a l f a c i l i t i e s which are n e c e s s a r y
t o c a r r y o u t r e s e a r c h and development a s w e l l as
o p e r a t i o n a l m i s s i o n s . Such f a c i l i t i e s i n c l u d e a i r c r a f t ,
e x t e n s i v e f i e l d i n s t a l l a t i o n s c o n s i s t i n g of m e t e o r o l o g i c a l
s e n s o r networks and d a t a a n a l y s i s f a c i l i t i e s , l a r g e
l a b o r a t o r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s (cloud chambers, e t c . ) , and h i g h s p e e d , l a r g e - c a p a c i t y d i g i t a l computers f o r modeling of
a t m o s p h e r i c p r o c e s s e s . A l l o c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s s h o u l d
be b a s e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g p r i n c i p l e s :

If a major f a c i l i t y s e r v e s a s p e c i a l missiono r i e n t e d purpose and f u l l - t i m e u s e can be
j u s k i f i e d f o r t h a t purpose, the f a c i l i t y s h o u l d
be e s t a b l i s h e d and o p e r a t e d b y t h e s p e c i f i c
e l e m e n t of t h e agency charged w i t h t h a t mission.
1.

For example:
Small a i r c r a f t and f i e l d sites
f u l l y used by t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e i n
t h e i r l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n m i s s i o n should be
e s t a b l i s h e d and o p e r a t e d b y the Department of
I n general,
A g r i c u l t u r e a s p a r t of t h a t m i s s i o n .

32

radiosonde b a l l o o n s , small-scale l a b o r a t o r y and
computing f a c i l i t i e s , and i n d i v i d u a l a i r c r a f t
should be c o n t a i n e d i n the s p e c i f i c m i s s i o n s
where t h e y are needed.
These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are r e f l e c t e d i n my conc l u s i o n s and recommendations s e t f o r t h i n the
preceding s e c t i o n s ,
2. If a f a c i l i t y i s n o t used f o r one s p e c i f i c
m i s s i o n , b u t can be j u s t i f i e d on a f u l l - t i m e
use b a s i s f o r g e n e r a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n
purposes by one s i n g l e agency, t h a t agency
should e s t a b l i s h and o p e r a t e t h e f a c i l i t y .

For example: I s u p p o r t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t and
o p e r a t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e a i r c r a f t and f a c i l i t i e s
b y t h e Department of I n t e r i o r t o e x e c u t e t h e i r p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation m i s s i o n , I a l s o s u p p o r t the u l t i mate e s t a b l i s h m e n t b y ESSA of a g e n e r a l purpose f l e e t
of a i r c r a f t f o r u s e i n t h a t a g e n c y ' s d i v e r s i f i e d R&D
and m i s s i o n programs.
3 . I f a f a c i l i t y is f o r general-purpose use, b u t
i s so e x t e n s i v e t h a t f u l l - t i m e u s e c a n n o t be
j u s t i f i e d b y a s i n g l e agency, t h e n t h e u s e of t h e
f a c i l i t y w i l l have t o be s h a r e d b y the a g e n c i e s
and t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r i t s e s t a b l i s h m e n t and
o p e r a t i o n s h o u l d be a s s i g n e d on a case-by-case
basis.

S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e major f i e l d s i t e s , large c l o u d
chambers, large-scale computers, and large-scale
integrated f l y i n g l a b o r a t o r i e s f a l l i n t o t h i s
category

.

33

In assigning responsibility for these facilities
consideration also should be given to their use
by individual agencies for purposes other than

I recommend that ESSA's proposed program for
field facilities, in addition to the Norman,
Oklahoma facility, be conducted with due regard
for the mission needs of the Department of
Interior. Specifically, the first step in this
expansion should be a general purpose field
facility in the Northeastern United States.
ESSA should establish and operate the site not
only for ESSA's research, but also in collaboration
with the Department of the Interior, and the
facility should be shared between at least thzse
two agencies.
The development of an understanding of the basic
physics of cloud formation, dynamics, and
dissipation is of prime importance in determining
the nechanisms that can be used to modify clouds
and cloud systems. As a weather simulation
facility, the very large cloud chamber holds
promise to be a powerful tool for such investigations. At the same time, prudence dictates that some
experience be obtained with one.such chamber before
any consideration is given to the construction of
othcrs. Because such a facility bears a very strong
relationship to university research programs and
the training of research talent, I recommend that
such a facility be established and operated by the
National Center for Atmospheric Research under
NSF sponsorship. On the other hand, because of
the importance to other agencies of the research
to be done with the cloud chamber, I recommend
that N S F associate the other agencies with NSF
in the planning and design of the chamber,and
in its use after construction.

34

The p r e s e n t - d a y o p e r a t i o n i n modeling t e c h n i q u e s
and numerical f o r e c a s t i n g p r o c e d u r e s i n d i c a t e s
.
t h a t a l a r g e - s c a l e , y e t t o be developed, computer
may w e l l be r e q u i r e d .
T h e p l a n n i n g of i n d u s t r y
i n r e g a r d t o l a r g e computers needs t o be known.
A l s o , t h e basic research of t h e programs recommended e a r l i e r i n t h i s r e p o r t should c l a r i f y
t h e r o l e of such computers, and may indeed remove some of t h e need f o r them. H e r e a g a i n ,
however, I recommend a c a r e f u l p l a n n i n g phase.
I a l s o recommend t h a t ESSA should e s t a b l i s h a n d
o p e r a t e l a r g e - s c a l e d i g i t a l computers f o r t h e
purpose of a p p l y i n g a t m o s p h e r i c c i r c u l a t i o n models
t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
I t is e x p e c t e d t h a t
e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n of these computing
f a c i l i t i e s c o u l d be funded a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y
by, a n d s h a r e d w i t h , o t h e r programs w i t h i n ESSA.
While I f e e l t h a t a l a r g e mobile f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , f o r
both weather and weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h i s
important t o the l o n g r a n g e development of t h e s e
f i e l d s , I a m unable t o determine a t t h i s t i m e what
would be a r e a s o n a b l e program f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t
I b e l i e v e it would be w i s e t o
of such a f a c i l i t y .
f o l l o w a s t e p - b y - s t e p p r o c e s s of a r r i v i n g a t an
optinum l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , i n which the
development and use b y i n d i v i d u a l a g e n c i e s of t h e i r
own n e c e s s a r y smaller-scale f l i g h t f a c i l i t i e s would
be v 3 l u a b l e l e a r n i n g steps. I feel t h a t the l a t t e r
should not be n e g l e c t e d i n t h e h a s t e t o b r i n g a
l a r g e - s c a l e f a c i l i t y i n t o being.
I recommend
t h a t work toward t h e l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y
remain l a r g e l y i n t h e s t u d y and p l a n n i n g s t a g e
f o r t h e t i m e being.

35

C o o r d i n a t i o n and R e p o r t i n q
A s i n d i c a t e d b y the p r e s e n t e a r l y p l a n n i n g ,

research
and a p p l i c a t i o n s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e broad and
v a r i e d i n s c o p e , and have t h e i n t e r e s t of many a g e n c i e s .
Even a t t h i s s t a g e c o o r d i n a t i o n i s i m p e r a t i v e , and w i t h
t h e p a s s a g e of time c o o r d i n a t i o n w i l l become e v e r more
i m p o r t a n t t o sound p l a n n i n g and e f f e c t i v e e x e c u t i o n
I t i s c l e a r t l i a t r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a of t h e program.
t i o n s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o
m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s e r v i c e s and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h ; i n d e e d ,
i t would be an a r t i f i c i a l i t y t o a t t e m p t t o s e p a r a t e them.
Hence, I recommend t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r , who
a l r e a d y h a s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o o r d i n a t i o n and r e p o r t i n g
i n t h i s a r e a of meteorology, undertake c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h e
Natj.ona1 Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e
c o o r d i n a t i o n of n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n meteorology;
B y " c o o r d i n a t i o n " I mean l a r g e l y " c o r r e l a t i o n ,

i n c l u d i n g documenting and t a b u l a t i n g i n one p l a c e , and
a n a l y z i n g e x i s t i n g government program a c t i v i t y , prov i d i n g f o r a l l concerned a c o n t i n u i n g v i s i b i l i t y o f t h e
whole n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t . I t i s
i n t e n d e d t o a s s i g n t h e same k i n d of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r now
h a s f o r meteorology. Such a w e l l o r g a n i z e d program of
c e n t r a l c o r r e l a t i o n o f program a c t i v i t i e s may be e x p e c t e d
t o l e a d t o agreements and arrangements among t h e a g e n c i e s
on such t h i n g s a s j o i n t purchase of m a t e r i a l s and e q u i p ments, common s u p p o r t and use of f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t f i e l d
o p e r a t i o n s , e l i m i n a t i o n of u n d e s i r a b l e d u p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e
It i s not intended
e s t a b l i s h m e n t of o b s e r v i n g n e t s , e t c .
t o g i v e t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r program
p l a n n i n g o r c o n t r o l . These would c o n t i n u e t o be t h e
r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s and under t h e
The o v e r a l l r e s u l t would be an e f f e c t i v e l y
r e v i e w of I C A S .
c o o r d i n a t e d program.

36

I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r
Meteorology should be a s s i g n e d t h e t a s k of p r e p a r i n g

and s u b m i t t i n g an a n n u a l r e p o r t on n a t i o n a l w e a t h e r
m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . T h i s r e p o r t i n g assignment
i s a t p r e s e n t by law g i v e n t o t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e
Foundation. I b e l i e v e t h a t i t i s d e s i r a b l e t o r e l i e v e
N S F of t h i s burden.
For o n e t h i n g , t h e p r i n c i p a l
f u t u r e of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i s d i r e c t e d
toward a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h and o p e r a t i o n s , which a r e n o t
and should n o t be i n t h e mainstream of N S F ' s r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r b a s i c research.
Secondly, a s h a s a l r e a d y
been p o i n t e d o u t , weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and
o p e r a t i o n s a r e i n e x t r i c a b l y interwoven w i t h meteorol o g i c a l s e r v i c e and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h .
Requiring t h e
F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r Meteorology t o r e p o r t on t h e
n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , a p p e a r s
t o be a n a t u r a l s t e p .

R e q u l a t i o n and C o n t r o l
A s b r o u g h t o u t c l e a r l y by t h e NSF S p e c i a l Commission

Reports ( R e f s . 2 and 3 ) , t h e s u b j e c t of r e g u l a t i o n and
c o n t r o l i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n i s a complex and u r g e n t
one. I do n o t f e e l t h a t I can recommend a s p e c i f i c
o r g a n i z a t i o n t o be a s s i g n e d t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r
r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i ties.
I do, however, have a few r e l a t e d recommendations.
I f e e l v e r y s t r o n g l y t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body m u s t
n o t be one of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n
t h e N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program.
To assign
t h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o one of t h e s e a g e n c i e s would
immediately g e n e r a t e c o n f l i c t s of i n t e r e s t , sow t h e
seeds of d i s s e n s i o n , and doom t h e e f f o r t s a t r e g u l a t i o n
and c o n t r o l t o e n d l e s s f r E s t r a t i o n .

37

I f e e l t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body s h o u l d n o t be t h e
I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l C o m m i t t e e f o r Atmospheric Sciences
(ICAS).
I n m view, t h e r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n
y
w i l l be a f u l l - t i m e t a s k for a modest s t a f f of p e o p l e ,

p a r t i c u l a r l y , as t h e n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t
i n c r e a s e s and as a c t i v i t i e s become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope.
I C A S i s i n no p o s i t i o n t o undertake such a f u l l - t i m e
assignment. Moreover, many of t h e c o n f l i c t - o f - i n t e r e s t
problems t h a t a r i s e i n t h e case of a s s i g n i n g t h e f u n c t i o n
t o one of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s would a l s o e x i s t i n
such an assignment t o ICAS.

were t h e O f f i c e of t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r
Meteorology m o r e c l e a r l y s e p a r a t e from ESSA, and perhaps
even from the Department of Commerce, one might a s s i g n
I feel very
t h i s t a s k t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator.
s t r o n g l y , however, t h a t the p r e s e n t r e l a t i o n s between
t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r I s o f f i c e and ESSA a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y
a m b i v a l e n t t o make t h e assignment of t h e r e g u l a t i o n
and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator a n
unwise s t e p .
I n t e r n a t i o n a l Implications
By a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 9 7 2 , when l a r g e - s c a l e weather
m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments may w e l l be o p e r a t i o n a l , t h e y
may be e x p e c t e d t o have c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
T h i s impact w i l l be twofold:
impact.
(1) A s experiments and o p e r a t i o n s become
g e o g r a p h i c a l l y more e x t e n s i v e , t h e r e w i l l be
a need f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g such o p e r a t i o n s w i t h
n a t i o n s whose t e r r i t o r i e s a r e a f f e c t e d b y
I f experiments t a k e p l a c e
those o p e r a t i o n s .
o v e r oceans there may be a c o n f l i c t w i t h
w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments b y o t h e r
This i s e s s e n t i a l l y a q u e s t i o n
nations.
of r e g u l a t i o n and c o o r d i n a t i o n .
It is n o t
e x p e c t e d t h a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y
body w i l l e x i s t by t h a t time.
Indeed, e f f o r t s

30

t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l agency t o d e a l
w i t h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , w h i l e w e l l i n t e n d e d ,
a r e l i k e l y t o be of dubious v a l u e and t o c r e a t e
r a t h e r t h a n r e s o l v e p o l i t i c a l problems--if t h e
e x p e r i e n c e i n n u c l e a r e n e r g y and s p a c e i s any
guide

.

A more p r a c t i c a l and c o n s t r u c t i v e approach t o t h e

i n t e r n a t i o n a l problem--and one which s h o u l d pave
r a t h e r t h a n b l o c k t h e way f o r t h e n e c e s s a r y
experimentation--would be through b i l a t e r a l o r
m u l t i l a t e r a l arrangements. I n t h e s e , t h e U . S .
would s e e k t o e s t a b l i s h t h e mutual i n t e r e s t of
n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s i n l a r g e - s c a l e experiments
and t o engage them w i t h u s i n such experiments.
I n t h i s way, w e c o u l d e d u c a t e a growing number
of c o u n t r i e s , e s t a b l i s h our good f a i t h , i n c r e a s e
t h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y of t h e program i n t h e e y e s
of t h i r d c o u n t r i e s , d e m o n s t r a t e v a l u e s
t r a n s c e n d i n g n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s , and w i n
s u p p o r t where r e q u i r e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l forums
which may a d d r e s s themselves on a p o l i t i c a l
b a s i s t o t h e problems of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
The o f f i c e f o r r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l , d i s c u s s e d
i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , w i l l c e r t a i n l y have
t o bz involved. N a t i o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w i l l
have t o be c l a r i f i e d and d e f i n e d .
T h i s , however,
i s 6 s u b j e c t o u t s i d e t h e scope of m assignment.
y
B e n e f i t s and p o t e n t i a l p a y o f f s of weather
m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments on a n a t i o n a l scale
have a l r e a d y been d i s c u s s e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n
t o t h i s r e p o r t . When a p p l i e d on a g l o b a l s c a l e
t h e s e b e n e f i t s c o u l d i n c r e a s e g r e a t l y . For
example, m o d i f i c a t i o n and d i v e r s i o n of t r o p i c a l
s t o r m s o r typhoons i n t h e W e s t e r n P a c i f i c o r
(2)

39

I n d i a n Ocean would r e s u l t not o n l y i n t h e
p r e v e n t i o n of p r o p e r t y damage s e v e r a l orders
of magnitude g r e a t e r t h a n i n North America,
b u t a l s o , and m o r e i m p o r t a n t l y , i n t h e s a v i n g
of c o u n t l e s s numbers of human l i v e s . S i m i l a r
b e n e f i t s would occur from p r e c i p i t a t i o n
augmentation b y r e l i e v i n g l a r g e areas from
t h e e f f e c t s of e x t e n s i v e droughts. Thus,
v a l u a b l e e x p e r i e n c e gained i n i t i a l l y on a
smaller, n a t i o n a l scale, may e v e n t u a l l y be
important i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , permitting us t o
c o o p e r a t e w i t h and a s s i s t o t h e r c o u n t r i e s i n
t h e s a v i n g of human l i v e s and p r o p e r t y , and
This
i n t h e enhancement of human w e l f a r e .
i s a n o t h e r of the b e n e f i t s t h a t may r e s u l t from
a v i g o r o u s n a t i o n a l program such a s t h a t d i s c u s s e d
i n the preceding s e c t i o n s .
Concludinq S t a t e m e n t
I t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e plan I recommend herein
would p e r m i t t h e development of a N a t i o n a l Weather
M o d i f i c a t i o n Program w i t h a s a t i s f a c t o r y forward t h r u s t
a t a r e a l i s t i c pace, would provide i n t e r e s t e d a g e n c i e s
w i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l and s a t i s f y i n g involvement, would
make good u s e of t h e e x p e r i e n c e and i n t e r e s t of the
v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s , i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a s s i g n e d agency
r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , can develop i n t o a w e l l - c o o r d i n a t e d
and i n t e G r a t e d n a t i o n a l program, and s h o u l d a v o i d
potential conflicts.

REFERENCES
1.

Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate
Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences,
National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council;
"Weather and Climate Modification, Problems and Prospects,"
Volume I- Summary and Recommendations, Volume II- Research
and Development, Publication No. 1350, 1966

2.

Report of the Special Commission on Weather Modification,
National Science Foundation; "Weather and Climate
Modification," Publication No. NSF 66-3, transmitted
to NSF December 20, 1965

3.

Report to the Special Commission on Weather Modification,
National Science Foundation; "Weather Modification Law,
Controls, Operations," Publication No. NSF 66-7 (no
date)

APPENDICES
I

I1

I11

IV

V

VI

Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National Academy
of Sciences-National Research Council: Membership
and Recommendations
Special Commission on Weather Modification, National
Science Foundation: Membership and Recommendations
Report prepared by the ICAS Select Panel on Weather
Modification; "Present and Future Plans of Federal
Agencies in Weather-Climate Modification," dated
June 20, 1966
Memorandum for Dr. Homer E. Newel1 from J. Herbert
Hollomon, Chairman, ICAS, Subject: National Weather
Modification Program, dated June 21, 1966
NASA Panel to Study Weather Modification Activities;
Membership, Chronology of Meetings, and a Compilation
of Supporting Material used by the Panel

Budget Recommendations and Trends for a National
Weather Modification Program

PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
NAS-NRC

MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDATIONS

APPENDIX I

1-1

to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, NAS-NRC
Gordon J. F. MacDonald, University of California at Los Angeles,
Chairman
Julian H. Bigelow, Institute for Advanced Study
Jule G. Charney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Ralph E. Huschke, The RAND Corporation
Francis

S.

Johnson, Southwest Center for Advanced Studies

Heinz H. Lettau, University of Wisconsin
Edward N. Lorenz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
James E. McDonald, University of Arizona
*Joanne Simpson, Environmental Science Services Administration
Joseph Smagorinsky, Environmental Science Services
Administration
Verner E. Suomi, University of Wisconsin
Edward Teller, University of California at Livermore

H. K. Weickmann, Environmental Science Services Administration
E. J. Workman, University of Hawaii
LIAISON MEMBERS
Donald L. Gilman, Environmental Science Services Administration
Edward P. Todd, National Science Foundation
*Through 1964
1-2

to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council
AREAS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Administration and Funding of Research and Development in
Weather Modification
We recommend an immediate and thorough study of the
administration and support of research and development
in weather modification.
We recommend that immediate steps be taken by the
agencies to raise the support from the 1965 level of
$ 5 million to at least $30 million by 1970.
Projects in Stimulation of Precipitation
We recommend the early establishment of several carefully designed, randomized, seeding experiments, planned
in such a way as to permit assessment of the seedability
of a variety of storm types.
We recommend, therefore, that means be found, at federal
expense if necessary, to secure much better evaluative
reports on operational programs than are currently
available.
We recommend that attention be given immediately to
careful monitoring and regulation of operational programs
for weather modification.
Re search Properties
We recommend that planning be started immediately on all
the following major field investigations:

1-3

a. A comprehensive exploration of hurricane
energetics, leading to the development of a
theoretical hurricane model and, subsequently, to
hypotheses for hurricane modification.
b. Measurement of tropical convection and other
aspects of energy-exchange processes in the tropics.
c.

A comprehensive investigation of hailstorms.

d. A coordinated set of projects to measure the
dynamics and water budgets of a variety of precipitating storm types,
It is clear that research throughout the atmospheric sciences will contribute to the goals of
weather and climate modification. Of the research
promising the most direct contributions, we recommend
that highest priority be assigned to the following
studies:
e.

1. Studies of atmospheric water budgets,
initially on vapor transport ovar those
portions of the United States where the potential of cloud seeding is important,
2. Studies of boundary-layer energy-exchange
processes,
3.
Continued development of theoretical
models of condensation and precipitation mechanisms, including the early incorporation of
dynamical and electrical influences and the
effects of changes in concentrations of condensation and freezing nuclei.

4. New and comprehensive studies of the
meteorological effects of atmospheric pollution (including carbon dioxide) and
urbanization.
1-4

Major Research Facilities and Support Systems
We recommend that all necessary steps be taken to
encourage the computer industry to respond to these
prospective requirements.
We recommend full U.S.

support and leadership in
promptly establishing an advanced global-observational
system.

We recommend that the civil research aircraft facilities
be enlarged to include diversified types of aircraft
and supporting data-gathering systems to meet the
requirements placed upon them.
Internal Aspects
We recommend that the federal agency assigned major

administrative responsibilities in this field also be
empowered to deal with the complex international
issues arising from weather-modification projects.

1-5

SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION

MEMBERSHIP

RECOMMENDAT IONS

APPENDIX I1

11-1

A. R. Chamberlain, Chairman, Vice President, Colorado State
University
John Bardeen, Vice Chairman, Departments of Physics and
Electrical Engineering, University of Illinois
William G. Colman, Executive Director, Advisory Commission on
Intergovernmenta1 Re lations
John C . Dreier, School of Advanced International Studies,
The Johns Hopkins University
Leonid Hurwicz, Department of Economics, University of
Minnesota
Thomas F. Malone, Second Vice President, Research Department,
Travelers Insurance Company
Arthur W. Murphy, Columbia University School of Law
Sumner T Pike, Lubec, Maine
.
William S. von Arx, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Gilbert F. White, Department of Geograpny, University of
Chicago
Karl M. Wilbur, Department of Zoology, Duke University

11-2

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Progress and Prospecks in Weather and Climate Modification
The Commission concludes that sound progress toward the
technology of weather and climate modification must be
based on four fundamental pursuits:
a. Assessment and development of an understanding
of natural climatic change.
b. Assessment of the extent and development of the
understanding of inadvertent modifications of weather
and climate.
c. Improvement of the process of weather prediction
as a social benefit and as proof of scientific
understanding of atmospheric behavior, and
d. Development of means for deliberate intervention
in atmospheric processes for weather and climate
control and evaluation of their consequences.
As steps toward these attainments the Corraissioii recommends
tkat

the following enterprises be fostered:
i . Examination of the routes, rates, and reservoirs
of water substance and energy exchanges in all aspects
of the hydrologic cycle.
2.
Investigation by numerical laboratory and field
experiments of the dynamics of climate as a basic
study for weather modification technology.

11-3

3.
Advancement of weather p r e d i c t i o n a s a proof of
u n d e r s t a n d i n g , i n c l u d i n g s u p p o r t of t h i s e f f o r t by
t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a g l o b a l weather o b s e r v a t i o n
network

.

Broadenins 0 - t h e knowledge of c l o u d p h y s i c s and
dynamics i n thc, l a b o r a t o r y and f i e l d , w i t h a t t e n t i o n
t o wave phenomena and an e v a l u a t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l
influences.

4.

Study of t h e e f f e c t s of l a r g e s c a l e s u r f a c e
m o d i f i c a t i o n b y numerical and l a b o r a t o r y models of
t h e o c e a n i c and atmospheric g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n ,
and of p r a c t i c a l means f o r s u r f a c e m o d i f i c a t i o n
of t h e l a n d and s e a .
5.

Study of t h e r a d i a t i v e e f f e c t s of changes i n t h e
a t m o s p h e r i c composition and a l t e r a t i o n of i t s t r a n s parency t h a t urban growth and n e w forms of i n d u s t r y ,
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n or l a n d u s e may evoke.
6.

B i o l o g i c a l Aspects of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n
Living t h i n g s a r e adapted t o t h e weather t h a t a c t u a l l y
p r e v a i l s , and any change i n t h a t weather w i l l be g e n e r a l l y
d e l e t e r i o u s t o them.
The l a r g e s t c r e d i t item f o r weather m o d i f i c a t i o n i s l i k e l y
t o he an i n c r e a s e i n primary p r o d u c t i o n of t h e d r i e r
p a r t s ui' I:he land s u r f a c e through improvements i n r a i n f a l l .
Even t h e a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l s e a s o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of
r a i n f a l l would l e a d t o more e f f i c i e n t farming o p e r a t i o n s .
R e a l i z a t i o n of t h e p o t e n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n would
depend upon b e i n g a b l e t o modify t h e r a i n f a l l w i t h o u t
major p e s t o u t b r e a k s and e x t i n c t i o n and d i s r u p t i o n of
n a t u r a l communities.
I t i s n o t c e r t a i n t h a t t h i s would
be p o s s i b l e .

11-4

A recommended national program in weather modification

A recommended national program in weather modification

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (10)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (12)

Similar to A recommended national program in weather modification

Similar to A recommended national program in weather modification (20)

More from Lex Pit

More from Lex Pit (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

A recommended national program in weather modification