06 lars-graudal-indicators-tree-genetic-diversity-tree-diversity-day-2014

Indicators+of+tree+gene/c+
diversity+for+monitoring+status+
and+trends+of+forest+gene/c+
resources+and+the+effec/veness+
of+ameliora/ve+ac/ons!
Lars!Graudal,!ICRAF!
Tree!Diversity!Day,!10!October!
CBD!COP!12,!2014!
!

Abstract+
• Over!the!last!two!decades!internaDonal!policy!processes!have!created!a!
wealth!of!indicators!to!monitor!the!status!of!biodiversity.!However,!
geneDc!diversity!indicators,!are!sDll!largely!absent!from!comprehensive!
bioKmonitoring!schemes,!even!though!geneDc!diversity!is!acknowledged!!
as!a!major!element!of!biodiversity;!consDtuDng!!the!basis!for!adaptaDon,!
for!ecosystem!funcDoning!and!in!providing!resilient,!producDve!
landscapes.!Connected!to!the!State!of!the!Worlds!Forest!GeneDc!
Resources!(FAO!2014),!a!framework!for!a!set!of!geneDc!level!indicators!for!
trees!is!now!proposed!(Graudal!et!al.!2014).!This!presentaDon!provides!an!
introduc/on+to+these+indicators,+their+context+and+interpreta/on+as+well+
as+examples+of+the+poten/al+implica/ons+for+the+effec/veness+of+
ameliora/ve+ac/ons+related+to+the+conserva/on+and+use+of+tree+gene/c+
diversity.!The!proposed!indicators!cover!mulDple!geographical!scales!and!
diversity,!producDvity,!knowledge!and!management!(DKPM)!elements;!are!
based!on!a!genecological!approach;!can!be!embedded!within!current!
indicator!iniDaDves!of!the!Biodiversity!Indicator!Partnership!(BIP);!and!
contribute+to+coherent+strategies+for+management+of+tree+gene/c+
resources+in+support+of+sustainable+growth+as+an+integral+part+of+
mi/ga/on+and+adapta/on+strategies+for+global+change.+

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
– CBD!and!indicators!
– Progress!and!gaps!
– Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!
2. Aichi!Target!13!
3. State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!
– The!worlds!forests!
– Trees!outside!forests!
– Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!
15)!
4. The!indicators!
– The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!
– The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!
5. Conclusions!

Outline!
1. Introduc/on+
– CBD+and+indicators+
2. Aichi!Target!13!
15)!
4. The!indicators!
5. Conclusions!

Overall'framework:'types&of&interrelated&indicators&for&assessing&
progress&towards&the&Strategic&Plan&for&Biodiversity&2011:2020&! • 5!Strategic!
Goals!AKD!
• Aichi!Targets!
1K20!
• 12!Headline!
indicators!
• Sets!of!
interrelated!
indicators!to!
assess!our!
way!towards!
the!Targets!
UNEP/CBD/AHTEGKSPKInd/1/3!
22!August!2011,!55!pp!
CBD+and+indicators!
What!are!the!implicaDons!!
of!biodiversity!loss?!
How!is!the!status!of!!
biodiversity!changing?!
What!do!we!do!about!!
biodiversity!loss?!
Why!are!we!loosing!!
biodiversity?!

Outline!
1. Introduc/on+
– Progress+and+gaps+
2. Aichi!Target!13!
15)!
4. The!indicators!
5. Conclusions!

Progress+and+gaps!
Overall'framework:'types&of&interrelated&indicators&for&assessing&
progress&towards&the&Strategic&Plan&for&Biodiversity&2011:2020&!
• 5!Strategic!
Goals!AKD!
• Aichi!
Targets!
1K20!
• 12!
Headline!
indicators!
UNEP/CBD/AHTEGKSPKInd/1/3!
22!August!2011,!55!pp!
• 12!proposed!deadline!
indicators!
• 97+proposed+
opera/onal+indicators+
• 29!operaDonal!
indicators!reported!
2013,!39+by+2014+(BIP)!!
!
!
!
!
• Sets!of!interrelated!indicators!to!
assess!our!way!towards!the!Targets!

Outline!
1. Introduc/on+
– Interrelated+sets+of+indicators+
2. Aichi!Target!13!
15)!
4. The!indicators!
5. Conclusions!

Aichi+Target+5,+7+and+15++
++++++++++++++++++loss+of+habitats,++
++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++sustainable+management++
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++and+restora/on+

Aichi!Target!5,!7!and!15!loss!of!habitats,!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!sustainable!management!and!restoraDon!

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
2. Aichi+Target+13+
15)!
4. The!indicators!
5. Conclusions!

Aichi!Target!13:!GeneDc!diversity!
• State!of!the!World’s!Plant!GeneDc!Resources!
(1996,!2010)!–!excluding!trees!
• State!of!the!World’s!Animal!GeneDc!Resources!
(2007,!2015)++
• State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!
(2014)!
• State!of!the!World’s!AquaDc!GeneDc!Resources!
(yet!to!come)!
• The!State!of!the!World’s!Biodiversity!for!Food!
and!Agriculture!(2017)!

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
Propor/on+of+the+world’s+breeds+reported+to+the+FAO+by++
risk+status+category+(2013)++Source:!FAO,!2013!
About!40!species!of!the!50!000!known!avian!and!mammalian!species!
have!been!domesDcated!for!use!in!agriculture!and!food!producDon,!
and!there!are!more!than!8!000!recognized!breeds!
Anna!Chenery,!Heather!Plumpton,!Claire!Brown!and!Maf!Walpole!
(UNEP–WCMC):!The!Aichi!Targets!Passport,!2013!
FAO.!2007.!The&State&of&the&World’s&Animal&GeneAc&
Resources&for&Food&and&Agriculture!
!
Gene/c+
diversity++
Indicator:+No.+
of+breeds+of++
terrestrial+
domes/cated+
animals!
23+%+at+risk+
8+%+ex/nct+

!
Gene/c+diversity++
Indicator:+Ex+Situ+Crop+Collec/ons+Enrichment+index!
• An!increase!in!the!index!represents!the!addiDon!of!accessions!to!ex!situ!
collecDons.!
• Pooled!global!dataset!represenDng!2.2!m!accessions!of!7.4!million!(of!
which!30%!disDnct)![of!how!many!species?!Few!thousands?!]!
!
FAO’s!Second!Report!on!the!State!of!the!World’s!PGRFA!

7+000X14+000+
spp.+in++
collec/ons+
40+domes/cated+
300+000++
plants+
40+000++
cul/vated!
50+000+birds+and+mammals+
40+domes/cated+
Posi/ve++
enrichment+
index+
Breeds+at+risk+
35+000+
in++
MSB+

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
2. Aichi!Target!13!
3. State+of+the+World’s+Forest+Gene/c+Resources+2014+
– The+worlds+forests+
– Trees+outside+forests+
15)!
4. The!indicators!
5. Conclusions!

• SoW!FGR!2014!
• Context:!forests!
and!trees,!forestry!
and!agroforestry!

The!foresters’!view!of!the!world!!
(Source: CGIAR Consortium research program 6 Forests, trees and
agroforestry: Livelihoods, landscapes and governance)
FAO!Forest!Resources!Assessment!

The!agroforestry!view!of!the!world!
agroforestry: Livelihoods, landscapes and governance)
Zomer!et!al!2009,!2014!

The!Tree!GeneDc!Diversity!view!of!the!world!
agroforestry: Livelihoods, landscapes and governance)!
Figure.!Global!tree!cover!inside!and!outside!forest,!according!to!the!Global!Land!Cover!
2000!dataset,!the!FAO!spaDal!data!on!farms!versus!forest,!and!the!analysis!by!Zomer!et!
al.!(2009,!2014)!
!

SoW!FGR!2014:!Tree!species!diversity!and!within!
species!variaDon!and!selecDon!
• Some!70,000!woody!species!exist!(50,000K100,000)!
• Around!8,000!are!menDoned!in!SoW!FGR!(2014)!
• Some!2,400!are!reported!as!acDvely!managed!
• Around!3,000!are!of!known!value!in!!agroforestry!
• Around!700!are!included!in!tree!improvement!
programmes!
• GeneDc!level!informaDon!is!available!for!500K600!
species;!240!are!included!in!biotechnology!research!
• Very!few!are!intensively!bred!
• ConservaDon!status!of!the!geneDc!resources!of!most!
species!are!not!well!known!

About!half!of!the!nearly!8000!species!are!reported!as!threatened!
FAO!2014!

25!
Sumatra,!Sundaland!
1900:!16!million!ha!lowland!rainforest!
Pressure!on!forests!and!trees!

1900:!16!million!ha!lowland!rainforest!
2010:!0,5!million!ha!lel!
32!
Pressure!on!forests!and!trees!

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
2. Aichi!Target!13!
– Forest+and+Landscape+restora/on+opportuni/es+(Aichi+Target+
15)+
4. The!indicators!
5. Conclusions!

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
2. Aichi!Target!13!
15)!
4. The+indicators+
5. Conclusions!

The!proposed!indicators!
State+
1. Trends!in!species!and!populaDon!distribuDon!pafern!
of!selected!species!
2. Trends!in!populaDon!condiDon!
Benefit+
3. Trends!in!plantaDon!performance!of!selected!species!
Response+
4. Trends!in!knowledge!of!geneDc!diversity!of!species!
5. Trends!in!educaDon!and!awareness!
6. Trends!in!sustainable!use!of!tree!geneDc!resources!!
7. Trends!in!geneDc!conservaDon!

1.!Trends!in!
species!and!
populaDon!
distribuDon!
pafern!of!
selected!
species!
5.!Trends!in!
educaDon!and!
awareness!
3.!Trends!in!plantaDon!
performance!of!
selected!species!
7.!Trends!in!
geneDc!
conservaDon!
Trends!in!land!
use!!and!land!
use!change!
2.!Trends!in!
populaDon!
condiDon!
4.!Trends!in!
knowledge!
of!geneDc!
diversity!of!
species!
6.!Trends!in!
sustainable!use!
of!tree!geneDc!
resources!

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
2. Aichi!Target!13!
15)!
4. The+indicators+
– The+shrinkage+of+species+and+loss+of+diversity+
5. Conclusions!

Species+natural+distribu/on+
Van!Breugel,!Kindt,!Lilleso,!Graudal!

Expansion+of+cropland+

The potential natural vegetation types
each represent a species ensemble that
occurs under an unique set of
environmental conditions.
Species often occur in more than one
PNV.
Do the PNVs represent species
provenances?
In lieu of other information on a species
(which is the case for the majority of
species, this may be used as a working
hypothesis.
Testing of this hypothesis need to address
the relative importance of geographic
versus environmental distance.
Depending on the assumed importance of
geographical isolation, one may here
operate with a hyphothesis of 7- >10
genecological zones
Prov. 1
Prov. 3
Prov. 2
Prov. 4
Prov. 5
Prov. 2 Prov. 6
Prov. 7
Croton megalocarpus
Van Breugel et al

Biased+‘selec/on’++(dysgenic+–+due+to+‘uneven’+expansion+of+cropland)+
Remaining!populaDons!are!likely!to!be!a!biased!sample!of!the!metapopulaDon!before!
large!scale!conversion!commenced.!
DistribuAon&of&PNVs&with&Croton&megalocarpus&and&the&percentage&of&that&
area&that&has&not&been&converted&(based&on&IASA/IFPRI&global&crop&layer)&

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
2. Aichi!Target!13!
15)!
4. The+indicators+
– The+increase+of+planted+forests+and+produc/vity+
5. Conclusions!

The+global+perspec/ve+
Institut for Geovidenskab og
BrocNkateurrfhorovfafl tneitn ga l 2012

The+Bonn+Challenge+
Restoring!150!
million!hectares!
by!2020!could!!
sequester!
approximately!
53!Gt!CO2e!over!
the!course!of!50!
years!and!reduce!
the!annual!
emissions!
reducDon!gap!by!
between!11!and!
20!per!cent!–!as!
well!as!injecDng!
more!than!US$!
80!billion!per!
year!into!local!
and!naDonal!
economies.!
IUCN!2011,!2014!

Increasing!
producDvity,!carbon!
storage!and!
diversity!in!the!
Danish!forest!estate!
(600!000!ha)!

Scenario+1+–+Pessimis/c+
scenario+
• Area!changes!are!assumed!
to!be!half!of!the!predicted!
ones!for!Scenario!2,!and!
there!are!no!producDvity!
increases.!!
Scenario+2+–+Business+as+
usual+
• Area!changes!have!been!
predicted!based!on!past!
trends!and!are!assumed!to!
conDnue!at!the!same!rate!
unDl!2030.!No!producDvity!
increases!
Scenario+3+–+Higher+
produc/vity+
• Area!changes!have!been!
predicted!as!in!Scenario!
2.,An!annual!producDvity!
increase!has!been!applied!
for!management!schemes!
where!geneDc,!management!
or!technological!
improvements!are!expected.!!

Sources+and+sinks+(Gt/yr)! 1990–
1999!
2000–2007!
Sources+(C+emissions)! !! !!
! Fossil!fuel!and!cement! 6.5!±!0.4! 7.6!±!0.4!
! LandKuse!change! 1.5!±!0.7! 1.1!±!0.7!
! Total!sources! 8.0!±!0.8! 8.7!±!0.8!
Sinks+(C+uptake)! ! !
! Atmosphere! 3.2!±!0.1! 4.1!±!0.1!
! Ocean! 2.2!±!0.4! 2.3!±!0.4!
! Terrestrial+(‘established’+forests)+! 2.5+±+0.4! 2.3+±+0.5!
! Total!sinks! 7.9!±!0.6! 8.7!±!0.7!
! Global!residuals! 0.1!±!1.0! 0.0!±!1.0!
Pan!et!al!2011!

Sources+and+sinks+! 1990–
1999!
2000–
2007!
2010!
Sources+(C+emissions)! !! !! !!
Fossil!fuel!and!cement! 6.5!±!0.4! 7.6!±!0.4! 9.1!
LandKuse!change! 1.5!±!0.7! 1.1!±!0.7! 0.9!
Total!sources! 8.0!±!0.8! 8.7!±!0.8! !
Sinks+(C+uptake)! ! ! !
Atmosphere! 3.2!±!0.1! 4.1!±!0.1! 5.0!
Ocean! 2.2!±!0.4! 2.3!±!0.4! 2.4!
Terrestrial+(‘established+forests’)! 2.5+±+0.4! 2.3+±+0.5! 2.6!
Total!sinks! 7.9!±!0.6! 8.7!±!0.7! 10!
+
Planted+Forests/Trees+
1.2! 1.4! 1.6!
!

5.!Trends!in!
educaDon!and!
awareness!
7.!Trends!in!
geneDc!
conservaDon!
Trends!in!land!
use!!and!land!
use!change!
2.!Trends!in!
populaDon!
condiDon!
4.!Trends!in!
knowledge!
of!geneDc!
diversity!of!
species!
6.!Trends!in!
sustainable!use!
of!tree!geneDc!
resources!

Outline!
1. IntroducDon!
2. Aichi!Target!13!
15)!
4. The!indicators!
5. Conclusions+

Conclusions!
• Indicators!are!not!just!for!monitoring!but!also!for!
guiding!in!achieving!ambiDous!yet!realisDc!targets:!
• State!indicators!!are!therefore!imperaDve.!
• There!is!a!lot!!of!benefit!to!achieve!in!producDvity!and!
reselience!from!context!matching!geneDc!diversity!in!
applying!agroforestry!to!FLR!!
• Indicators!may!be!a!powerful!tool!for!policy!making!
• (Response:!
– Investment!in!genomics!posiDve!
– Neglect!of!taxonomy!and!FGR!and!AFGRE!management!
programmes!worrying)!

06 lars-graudal-indicators-tree-genetic-diversity-tree-diversity-day-2014

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to 06 lars-graudal-indicators-tree-genetic-diversity-tree-diversity-day-2014

Similar to 06 lars-graudal-indicators-tree-genetic-diversity-tree-diversity-day-2014 (20)

More from World Agroforestry (ICRAF)

More from World Agroforestry (ICRAF) (20)

06 lars-graudal-indicators-tree-genetic-diversity-tree-diversity-day-2014