Francois Delobel: FAO-MOSAICC: The FAO modelling system to support decision-making for agricultural impact assessments and adaptation
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Francois Delobel: FAO-MOSAICC: The FAO modelling system to support decision-making for agricultural impact assessments and adaptation

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Francois Delobel: FAO-MOSAICC: The FAO modelling system to support decision-making for agricultural impact assessments and adaptation Francois Delobel: FAO-MOSAICC: The FAO modelling system to support decision-making for agricultural impact assessments and adaptation Presentation Transcript

  • FAO-MOSAICC: Methodology and software overview Francois Delobel AfricaAdapt Symposium 10 March 2011 UNCC Addis Ababa
  • Outline
    • Objectives
    • Models and methodology
    • Software architecture
    • Flowchart
    • Interfaces
    • Deployment
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 1. Objectives
    • MO delling S ystem for A gricultural I mpacts of C limate C hange
    • Integrated impact assessment on crop yields, from climate data handling to economic assessment
    • Provides information to support decision-making at national level
    • Delivered to national institutions with training
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 1. Objectives
    • Expected outcomes (finalization phase):
      • General methodology
      • Software package
      • Comprehensive documentation
      • Sample data and tutorials for training
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 1. Objectives
    • Main characteristics of the system
      • A package of impact models running on one server, connected to a common database and controlled through a unique set of interfaces
      • This system is open: data can be exchanged to run other models as long as the users respect a set of minimum rules – technically (format, geographical coordinate system) and scientifically (congruency)
      • This system is portable and managed by the host institutions
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 2. Models and methodology
    • Criteria for model selection:
      • Simplicity and transparency
      • Robustness: limited sensitivity to low quality data
      • Flexibility: spatial and temporal resolution, domain of applicability
      • Tested under various agro-climatic conditions
      • Free if not open source
      • Cross-platform (Windows, Linux)
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 2. Models and methodology
    • 4 Main parts
      • Climate
      • Hydrology
      • Crops
      • Economy
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 2.1 Climate
    • Aim: Preparation of climate projections for crop and hydrological modelling from observations and GCM outputs
    • Models:
      • Statistical downscaling tool based on DAD Portal, developed by the Santander Meteorology Group, University of Cantabria (Spain)
      • Interpolation module based on AURELHY (an interpolation method using the topography) developed by P. Grosjean, University of Mons (Belgium)
      • Potential evapotranspiration calculation routine
      • Planting date and growing season length calculator (PLD) developed by R. Gommes, JRC-IES (Italy)
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 2.2 Hydrology
    • Aim: Simulating the water flow accumulation in river catchments for water resources estimation
    • Model:
      • STREAM (precipitation – runoff model), developed by Water Insight, the Netherlands
    • Inputs: climate data, soil characteristics, land cover, discharge observations
    • Outputs: discharges, water accumulation in dams
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 2.3 Crops
    • Aim: Generating crop yield projections under climate change scenarios using a crop forecasting approach
    • 2 Models:
      • AgroMetShell: crop specific soil water balance (FAO-NRC)
      • AQUACROP: water driven crop model (FAO-NRL)
    • Inputs: climate data, soil characteristics, crop parameters, management options
    • Outputs: according to the model, yield estimations, biomass production, crop water balance variables etc.
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 2.4 Economy
    • Aim: Modelling the impacts of changing yields on national economies and simulating the effect of policy responses
    • Model:
      • Generic Computable General Equilibrium Model developed by the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Free University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
    • Endogenous variables: crop yield projections + additional scenarios (population, agricultural land)
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 3. Software architecture
    • All modelling carried out on a central server
    • All models are connected to a central database with which they exchange data
    • Users send jobs through web interfaces
    • Use of free software
    • Web interfaces solve cross platform issues
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 4. Flowchart AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa Modellers Interface External users interface Server & Database Climate Scenario Downscaling Historical weather records Downscaled Climate scenarios Hydrological Modelling Crop growth Simulation Economic Modelling IPCC GCM Low Resolution Scenarios Historical discharge records Water availability for irrigation Historical water use statistics Historical yield records Yield projections Current state of economy Macroeconomic scenarios Economic impacts Crop parameters Soil data Technology trend scenarios Soil and Land use data Dam data
  • 5. Interfaces AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 6. Deployment
    • Requirements:
      • host institution (e.g. national met office)
      • experts from relevant institutions: agrometeorologists, hydrologists, economists
      • minimum data (weather stations)
    • Constitution of a multidisciplinary team, including end-users
    • System installation
    • Training sessions for each model
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • 6. Deployment
    • Integrated impact assessment study at national level
    • Ensuring the sustainability of the system, extension to other applications (e.g. crop forecasting, environment monitoring), educational tool...
    • Use case in Morocco this year, before implementations in other countries
    AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  • Thank you for your attention
    • Websites:
      • www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc/en /
      • www.fao.org/nr/climpag /
    • Partners:
    Mauro Evangelisti Servizi Informatici Numerical Ecology of Aquatic Systems AgroMetShell AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa