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FAO-MOSAICC: Methodology and software overview Francois Delobel AfricaAdapt Symposium 10 March 2011  UNCC Addis Ababa
Outline <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Models and methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Software architecture </li></ul><ul>...
1. Objectives <ul><li>MO delling  S ystem for  A gricultural  I mpacts of  C limate  C hange </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated ...
1. Objectives <ul><li>Expected outcomes (finalization phase):  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>General methodology </li></ul></ul><u...
1. Objectives <ul><li>Main characteristics of the system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A package of impact models running on one s...
2. Models and methodology <ul><li>Criteria for model selection: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Simplicity and transparency </li></u...
2. Models and methodology <ul><li>4 Main parts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrology </li></u...
2.1 Climate <ul><li>Aim: Preparation of  climate projections  for crop and hydrological modelling from observations and GC...
2.2 Hydrology <ul><li>Aim: Simulating the water flow accumulation in river catchments for  water resources estimation </li...
2.3 Crops <ul><li>Aim: Generating  crop yield projections  under climate change scenarios using a crop forecasting approac...
2.4 Economy <ul><li>Aim: Modelling the  impacts of changing yields on national economies  and simulating the effect of pol...
3. Software architecture <ul><li>All modelling carried out on a central server </li></ul><ul><li>All models are connected ...
4. Flowchart AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa Modellers Interface External  users  interface Server & Database Climate Sce...
5. Interfaces AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
6. Deployment <ul><li>Requirements:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>host institution (e.g. national met office) </li></ul></ul><ul>...
6. Deployment <ul><li>Integrated impact assessment study at national level </li></ul><ul><li>Ensuring the sustainability o...
Thank you for your attention <ul><li>Websites: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc/en /   </li></ul></...
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Francois Delobel: FAO-MOSAICC: The FAO modelling system to support decision-making for agricultural impact assessments and adaptation

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Transcript of "Francois Delobel: FAO-MOSAICC: The FAO modelling system to support decision-making for agricultural impact assessments and adaptation"

  1. 1. FAO-MOSAICC: Methodology and software overview Francois Delobel AfricaAdapt Symposium 10 March 2011 UNCC Addis Ababa
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Models and methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Software architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Flowchart </li></ul><ul><li>Interfaces </li></ul><ul><li>Deployment </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  3. 3. 1. Objectives <ul><li>MO delling S ystem for A gricultural I mpacts of C limate C hange </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated impact assessment on crop yields, from climate data handling to economic assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Provides information to support decision-making at national level </li></ul><ul><li>Delivered to national institutions with training </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  4. 4. 1. Objectives <ul><li>Expected outcomes (finalization phase): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>General methodology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Software package </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Comprehensive documentation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sample data and tutorials for training </li></ul></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  5. 5. 1. Objectives <ul><li>Main characteristics of the system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A package of impact models running on one server, connected to a common database and controlled through a unique set of interfaces </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This system is open: data can be exchanged to run other models as long as the users respect a set of minimum rules – technically (format, geographical coordinate system) and scientifically (congruency) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This system is portable and managed by the host institutions </li></ul></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  6. 6. 2. Models and methodology <ul><li>Criteria for model selection: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Simplicity and transparency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Robustness: limited sensitivity to low quality data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flexibility: spatial and temporal resolution, domain of applicability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tested under various agro-climatic conditions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Free if not open source </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cross-platform (Windows, Linux) </li></ul></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  7. 7. 2. Models and methodology <ul><li>4 Main parts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crops </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy </li></ul></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  8. 8. 2.1 Climate <ul><li>Aim: Preparation of climate projections for crop and hydrological modelling from observations and GCM outputs </li></ul><ul><li>Models: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Statistical downscaling tool based on DAD Portal, developed by the Santander Meteorology Group, University of Cantabria (Spain) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interpolation module based on AURELHY (an interpolation method using the topography) developed by P. Grosjean, University of Mons (Belgium) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential evapotranspiration calculation routine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planting date and growing season length calculator (PLD) developed by R. Gommes, JRC-IES (Italy) </li></ul></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  9. 9. 2.2 Hydrology <ul><li>Aim: Simulating the water flow accumulation in river catchments for water resources estimation </li></ul><ul><li>Model: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>STREAM (precipitation – runoff model), developed by Water Insight, the Netherlands </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Inputs: climate data, soil characteristics, land cover, discharge observations </li></ul><ul><li>Outputs: discharges, water accumulation in dams </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  10. 10. 2.3 Crops <ul><li>Aim: Generating crop yield projections under climate change scenarios using a crop forecasting approach </li></ul><ul><li>2 Models: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>AgroMetShell: crop specific soil water balance (FAO-NRC) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>AQUACROP: water driven crop model (FAO-NRL) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Inputs: climate data, soil characteristics, crop parameters, management options </li></ul><ul><li>Outputs: according to the model, yield estimations, biomass production, crop water balance variables etc. </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  11. 11. 2.4 Economy <ul><li>Aim: Modelling the impacts of changing yields on national economies and simulating the effect of policy responses </li></ul><ul><li>Model: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Generic Computable General Equilibrium Model developed by the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Free University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Endogenous variables: crop yield projections + additional scenarios (population, agricultural land) </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  12. 12. 3. Software architecture <ul><li>All modelling carried out on a central server </li></ul><ul><li>All models are connected to a central database with which they exchange data </li></ul><ul><li>Users send jobs through web interfaces </li></ul><ul><li>Use of free software </li></ul><ul><li>Web interfaces solve cross platform issues </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  13. 13. 4. Flowchart AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa Modellers Interface External users interface Server & Database Climate Scenario Downscaling Historical weather records Downscaled Climate scenarios Hydrological Modelling Crop growth Simulation Economic Modelling IPCC GCM Low Resolution Scenarios Historical discharge records Water availability for irrigation Historical water use statistics Historical yield records Yield projections Current state of economy Macroeconomic scenarios Economic impacts Crop parameters Soil data Technology trend scenarios Soil and Land use data Dam data
  14. 14. 5. Interfaces AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  15. 15. 6. Deployment <ul><li>Requirements: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>host institution (e.g. national met office) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>experts from relevant institutions: agrometeorologists, hydrologists, economists </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>minimum data (weather stations) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Constitution of a multidisciplinary team, including end-users </li></ul><ul><li>System installation </li></ul><ul><li>Training sessions for each model </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  16. 16. 6. Deployment <ul><li>Integrated impact assessment study at national level </li></ul><ul><li>Ensuring the sustainability of the system, extension to other applications (e.g. crop forecasting, environment monitoring), educational tool... </li></ul><ul><li>Use case in Morocco this year, before implementations in other countries </li></ul>AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
  17. 17. Thank you for your attention <ul><li>Websites: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc/en / </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>www.fao.org/nr/climpag / </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Partners: </li></ul>Mauro Evangelisti Servizi Informatici Numerical Ecology of Aquatic Systems AgroMetShell AfricaAdapt 10/03/11 Addis Ababa
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