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Future of the Internet
Future of the Internet
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Future of the Internet


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Presentation discusses these Internet future developments: …

Presentation discusses these Internet future developments:
1. Social computing will expand to business
2. Internet access will be ubiquitous
3. The Web will become faster
4. The Web will become smarter
5. Security will improve
6. IT products will morph into services

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • Thank you Jessica Arts for the invitation to speak at the ARMA luncheon todayMy name is Yogi SchulzI hope you’ll find this presentation about The Future of the Internet thought-provoking and little outside of the box of the presentations that you typically hear during your lunch events
  • Who am I?I’m a partner of Corvelle ConsultingWe offer information technology related management consultingWe have executed many project management and systems development assignments for our clientsMany of our clients operate in the upstream oil & gas industryI have written many columns for Computing Canada. These columns have tended to focus on project management and systems development themes. The audience is composed largely of IT executives and managersTwo years ago, I began to write columns for the Microsoft web site. These columns have tended to describe useful responses to IT developments for a general audience of business managersI’ve participated in many industry conferences as a presenter:Project World - 5 yearsCIPS Informatics - 7 yearsPMI - Information Systems SIG – 2 yearsConvergence - 4 yearsProfessional Petroleum Data Management Association -PPDM Association - several years
  • Cyber War: Sabotaging the System Minutes: Former Chief of National Intelligence Says U.S. Unprepared for Cyber Attacks, Nov. 8, 2009Several prominent intelligence sources confirmed that there were a series of cyber attacks in Brazil: one north of Rio de Janeiro in January 2005 that affected three cities and tens of thousands of people, and another, much larger event beginning on Sept. 26, 2007.That one in the state of Espirito Santo affected more than three million people in dozens of cities over a two-day period, causing major disruptions. In Vitoria, the world's largest iron ore producer had seven plants knocked offline, costing the company $7 million. It is not clear who did it or what the motive was.But the people who do these sorts of things are no longer teenagers making mischief. They're now likely to be highly trained soldiers with the Chinese army or part of an organized crime group in Russia, Europe or the Americas."They can disrupt critical infrastructure, wipe databases. We know they can rob banks. So, it's a much bigger and more serious threat," explained Jim Lewis, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.China Expands Cyberspying in U.S., Report Says Advisory Panel in Washington Cites Apparent Campaign by Beijing to Steal Information From American FirmsThe New E-spionage Threat BusinessWeek probe of rising attacks on America's most sensitive computer networks uncovers startling security gaps
  • Increasing Online SalesWe’ve now all bought products onlineThere’s every indication this trend will continueIt’s fast and convenient; the selection is vast, certainly more than a mall can offerOnline selling has significantly changed the retail sector of the economyOnline selling has dramatically changed the distribution industry from a focus on truckloads and cases of items to vast distribution centers focused on shipments of individual items to consumersHow many of us now conduct our research and comparison shopping online but then actually buy in a store?Anyone tried the iPod app that scans UPC codes and then produces search results for that UPC code in the browser?
  • The future of Social NetworksIn the future, the impact of Social Networkswill increase in many aspects of our livesCompanies:operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channelsoffer chat to customershost moderated discussion forumsThe goal is increased customer satisfaction through increased customer interactivityIncreased customer satisfaction leads first to increased sales and then more importantly, to better understanding of future products and services that will resonate with customersIndividuals:stay in touch with family & friendspromote causesparticipate in political actionIndividuals find value in easily staying in touch with friends and familyIt think that’s great way to maintain a sense of connectedness that phones don’t achieve as wellWe’ll see the Web used more for political actionThe last two elections in the US made use of the WebMany commentators saw the election of Barack Obama greatly assisted by his ability to raise money and mobilize local volunteers through the WebConversely, the government of China operates the Great Firewall that restricts its people’s access to various parts of the Internet These restrictions will escalate into confrontation, violence and eventually insurrectionZappos is widely touted as a superb online merchantWhat differentiates Zappos?It’s not their technology; it’s the way they train their customer service agentsThey’re never is a hurryThey typically have their competitors’ website open in another session to help customer find the exact product they want to purchase when Zappos doesn’t have the item in stock
  • EstoniaTahitiFar EastIsrael
  • ChineseInformationHighwaySome countries filter Internet content; this undermines Internet accessFor China this effort has been labelled The Great FirewallThe goal of such filtering is to minimize calls for political freedoms and to forestall challenges to the legitimacy of the clique that holds powerIn the future we will see more such attempts by autocratic regines; ultimately such efforts are bound to fail as the ingenuity of various engineers circumvents attempts to cut off Internet accessDefying censorship, Google threatens to pull out of ChinaMove follows 'sophisticated' cyber-attack and Mail cartoon
  • Revenge of the PCs?The manufacturers of PCs have not been oblivious to the faster-growing market for Internet-capable cell phonesThe response has been to make smaller, lighter, cheaper PC’sClassmate PC laptop per child have been the surprise sales hit of 2008 and 2009The lower price and weight appeal to everyone; particularly those who require only e-mail, web browsing and a little word processingThat usage profile applies to the majority of laptop users
  • Internet speed by countryU.S. lags other nations in Internet speed August 25, 2009 have been achieved in video compression to reduce download bandwidth requirementsHowever, for effective video download, the average download speed likely needs to exceed 10 megabits per second
  • Man – ComputerIntegrationWe’re going to see more wearable PC’s appearWe’re also going to see changes to how we interact with devicesYou may recall how Tom Cruise interacted with his computer in Minority ReportDevelopments in gestures and two-point cursors will continueLinks for graphics:
  • of data downloaded has grown correspondingly
  • Internet speed by countryAkamai: World's Net connection speeds risingJanuary 14, 2010Looking at the third quarter of 2009, the report found that most countries in the top-10 list for Internet performance saw an average 18 percent increase in speed from the second quarter. South Korea topped the list, with a 29 percent jump in speed to 14.6 megabits per second, while Ireland came in second for most improved, with a 26 percent rise to 5.3Mbps. Connection Speed: The Top 10 CountriesApril 8th, 2009
  • RESTON, VA, December 30, 2009 – comScore (NASDAQ : SCOR), a leader in measuring the digital world, today reported retail e-commerce spending for the holiday season from November 1 through Christmas Eve. During this period, approximately $27 Billion was spent online, which represents an increase of 5 percent over the same period a year ago. For the period from Black Friday through Christmas Eve, and after adjusting for the additional shopping day in 2009, sales grew by approximately 3.5 percent.
  • Readers based on E Ink black & white, low-power consuming display technologyAmazon – KindleSony – ereaderBarnes & Noble – NookLCD technology – faster, color, higher-power consuming display technologySiPixMirasolPhilips – LiquavistaFujitsu FLEPia – cholesteric LCDPixelQiC.E.S. 2010: Explosion of E-Book Readers
  • Transcript

    • 1. Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
    • 2. The Futureof the Internet
      ARMA CalgaryFebruary 10, 2010
    • 3. Yogi SchulzBiography
      Partner in Corvelle Consulting
      Information technology related management consulting
      Microsoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio host
      PPDM Association board member
      Industry presenter:
      Project World - 5 years
      CIPS Informatics - 7 years
      PMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 years
      Convergence - 4 years
      PPDM Association - several years
    • 4. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past
      Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war
      System to conduct business
      Cheap, fast, shared communication systemfor everyone
      A whole new media channel
      System to improve social life
      Basis for warfare
      Estonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategyagainst "cyber-terrorists" today after suspectedRussian hackers launched a third wave of attackson leading government, banking andmedia websites this week.
      19 May 2007
    • 5. Cyber War:Sabotaging the System
      Brazilian disruption of electrical power networks initiated by hackers
      China Expands Cyberspying in U.S.
      The New E-spionage Threat
    • 6. Close toHome
      “Great news, Mrs. Janoski!
      We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgeryon YouTube,
      And it’s currently ranked second!”
    • 7. Evolution from Web 1.0to Web 2.0
      End-user input
      Web 1.0
      Mostly text content
      Web 2.0
      End-user generated content
      Multi-media content
    • 8. Increasing Online Sales
    • 9. Over 72 million active sites
      World Wide Web map
      Number of Web Siteson the Web
    • 10. The Future of the Internet Outline
      Social computing will expand to business
      Internet access will be ubiquitous
      The Web will become faster
      The Web will become smarter
      Security will improve
      IT products will morph into services
      Questions & Answers
    • 11. Social ComputingSurvey
      created a personal profile onFacebook, MySpace, Second Life?
      played FarmVille?
      written personal blog entries?
      written a review at Amazon?
      posted pictures at Flickr?
      posted video at YouTube?
      produced content for the Web?
      Who has . .
    • 12. Daily Weblog Postings
      Daily Weblog Postings
      1.4 million posts per day
    • 13. New Hobbieson the Internet
      How did anyone
      survive before the
      Isn’t it truly amazinghow a day after Matthewtakes off his shirt, wecan all enjoy it?
    • 14. The future of Social Networks
      operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channels
      offer chat to customers
      host discussion forums
      stay in touch with family & friends
      promote causes
      participate in political action
    • 15. Internet AccessSurvey
      Who has . .
      abandoned phones for VOIP?
      used wireless access at Starbucks?
      found Internet access in remote corners of the world?
      mooched Internet access froman open WiFi access point?
      surfed the Web using a phone?
    • 16. InternetEverywhere
    • 17. T-Mobile HotSpot @Home
      + $ 20.00 per month
      In a Wi-Fi wirelessInternet hot spot,all your calls are free
      Phone hands offyour calls fromWi-Fi network to cell networkseamlessly and automatically
      Includes a wireless router for your home
    • 18. PCs vs. Cell PhonesProjected Shipments
      Over 700 million phones
    • 19. Internet-CapableCell Phones
    • 20. 20
      Chinese InformationHighway
    • 21. Revenge of the PCs?
    • 22. The Future of Internet Access
      Internet 2
      Rural Internet
      Satellite services
      Municipal WiFi
      Device convergence
    • 23. Faster Web Survey
      waited and waited for web pages to load?
      noticed significant variability when loading the same web page?
      rented movies because the download time takes hours?
      abandoned an online purchase because the hour glass stayed on forever?
      Who has . .
    • 24. Internet speed by country
    • 25. The Future of Internet Speed
      Internet 2
      Faster web browsers
      Higher speed Cable/ADSL
      Higher speed cell phone network
      Higher speed in-home network
    • 26. Smarter Web Survey
      not found what you were searching for?
      failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before?
      become tired of typing the same personal information over and over and over?
      received unexpected/embarrassing pages in the results set?
      found exactly what you were looking for; only it’s in Chicago?
      Who has . .
    • 27. Mobile agents
      WS-<alphabet soup>
      Web Services willconnect organizations
      Web Services Interoperability
    • 28. The Future Semantic Web
    • 29. SecuritySurvey
      actually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years?
      been hesitant about creating a profile?
      a paper shredder in use at home?
      their social security number with them?
      their password written on a sticky note?
      a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home?
      Who has . .
    • 30. The Future of Security
      Biometric identification:
      Technical identification:
      Less total freedom to be irresponsible:
    • 31. Software &Hardware Survey
      implemented virtualization technology
      contracted for on-demandserver computing?
      used open source software?
      installed OpenOffice?
      developed softwarethrough crowdsourcing?
      Who has . .
    • 32. IT products will morph into servicesSoftware as a Service
      Open source software
      Pay for software usage by the month
      Web-accessible office software
      IT infrastructure management
    • 33. IT products will morph into servicesHardware as a Service
      Commodity computing
      Service oriented architecture
    • 34. What will the future of the Internetmean to business?
      Enhance distributed collaboration
      Enhance supply chain performance
      Improve work/life balance
      Improve integration of field andhead office business processes
      Address the potential ofknowledge management
    • 35. Conclusions
      The future of the Internet will surprise us
      We tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technology
      We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology
    • 36. KeepingUp
      Don’t languish behind,
      The Internet offersmany possibilities!
    • 37. Recommendations
      Monitor Internet technology developments
      Experiment using emerging Web services
      Match technology to business problems and opportunities
      Pilot Web services in modest ways
      Don’t over-commit
    • 38. Questions & Answers
      Elroy will
      explain it
      to you
    • 39. Future of the Internet
      Corvelle Consulting
      700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W.
      Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V7
      Phone: (403) 249-5255
      Yogi Schulz
      Partner of Corvelle Consulting
      Information technology related management consulting
      Microsoft Canada columnist& CBC Radio host
      Industry presenter
      PPDM Association board member
    • 40. Man – ComputerIntegration
    • 41. searched for Open Source software components?
      contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application?
      read about the Open Source Website Content Management System?
      participated in an Open Source community?
      considered an open source application?
      Who has . .
    • 42. Software development will rely heavily on module re-use
      Microsoft modules
      Java modules
      Applications built on tools
      Reducing what developers have to code
    • 43. Supplemental Slides
    • 44. 44
    • 45. 45
    • 46. Top 10 Sites
    • 47. 47
    • 48. 48
    • 49. Mobile Web-surfingGrowth
    • 50. Websitesvisited afterTwitter
    • 51. 51
      Top-10 Malware Sites
    • 52. Internet speed by country
    • 53. Number of Weblogs
      Number of Weblogs
      Over 70 million blogs
    • 54. USA HolidayOnline Spending
    • 55. Web SearchActivity Share
    • 56. Future ofelectronic books
      MSI Dual screen slate
      Barnes & NobleNook
      Apple iPAD
    • 57. Bibliography - 1
      A Brief History of the World Wide Web
      A Little History of the World Wide Web
      Biometric Identification
      Classmate PC by Intel
      Creative Licensing
      Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14
      Digital dilemmas
      The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003
      Eight business technology trends to watch
      Electrolux Screenfridge
    • 58. Bibliography - 2
      Future of the Internet and Web
      Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit
      Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004
      Histories of the Internet
      Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0
      How the internet has woven itself into American life
      How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle
      John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003
    • 59. Bibliography - 3
      IBM - Capacity on demand
      IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business
      Internet News, January 23, 2007
      Inside Reality - Improve collaborative decision making
      Internet histories
      Internet Society
      IPhone-Free Cellphone News
      By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007
    • 60. Bibliography - 4
      Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet
      NASA Research and Education Network (NREN)
      On-Demand Computing,11188,06282004,00.html
      One Laptop per Child (OLPC)
      Pattie Maes and PranavMistry demo SixthSense
      Rich Internet application
      Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model
    • 61. Bibliography - 5
      Taming the World Wide Web
      A rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online data
      by Rachael King
    • 62. Bibliography - 6
      Utility Computing
      Unveiling the genius of multi-touch interface design
      Jeff Han
      Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks
      W3C - One Web: Going Mobile
      Steve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobile
      Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultant
      World Wide Web Consortium
    • 63. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 1
      Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war
      Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors
      Global system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computers
      Fast, shared communication system for large corporations
      A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft
    • 64. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 2
      Replacement for Fedexing documents
      A whole new media channel for:
      Distributing information
      Delivering entertainment & education
      Collaborating for business or pleasure
      System to:
      Perform rapid research (with limitations)
      Conduct business with consumers – B2C
      Improve social life
      Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services
    • 65. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 3
      A software distribution/update mechanism
      Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone
      System to conduct business:
      Among businesses – B2B
      With government
      A turbo-charged way to:
      Defraud the innocent & the naive
      Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many
      Operate a global casino without spending billions
    • 66. The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 4
      Basis for warfare:
      Disrupt enemy communication
      Disable enemy weapons
      Freeze enemy financial assets
      Avoid casualties on the evening news
      Replacement for:
      The telephone system
      Video conferencing
      A shared infrastructure to enable:
      Media convergence
      Wireless communication system
      On-demand television
    • 67. A Brief History of the Internet
    • 68. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 1
      1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative
      1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors
      1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP
      1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail
      1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail
      1973 The term Internet is first used
      1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts
      1982 first Newsgroups established
      1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol
      1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson
      1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts
    • 69. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 2
      1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet
      1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was
      1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server
      1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as Web technology spread
      1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is considered the inventor of the Web
      1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet
      1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University
      1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP
      1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed
      1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions
      1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts
      1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal grant
    • 70. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 3
      1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts
      1993 Netscape Communications is founded
      1994 The first bank opens online
      1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery
      1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held
      1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web"
      1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software
      1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began
      1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel
      1995, 3 September – eBay launched
      1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine
      1995 launched
      1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re-prioritizes software development
    • 71. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 4
      1996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched
      1997 The one millionth domain name is registered
      1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA
      1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million pages per day
      1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections
      1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business
      1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular
      1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted
      1999 is launched
      1999 wireless technology called 802.11b or Wi-Fi is standardized
      2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum
      2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced
    • 72. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 5
      2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success
      2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes
      2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users
      2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL)
      2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service
      2001 The first live distributed musical
      2001 SETI@Home launches
      2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty
      2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web servers and email accounts
      2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip
      2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13 DNS root servers
    • 73. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 6
      2003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all emails
      2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières
      2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS attacks
      2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in cities worldwide
      2003 first Weblog site launched
      2003 Second Life launched
      2003 May LinkedIn launched
      2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on all purchases
      2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals for distributing copyright music files
      2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month
    • 74. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 7
      2003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store
      2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps
      2004 WS-Security
      2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg
      2004 Google IPO
      2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA
      2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers in near real-time
      2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China
      2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through Internet servers
      2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26% increase over 2003
      2004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released
    • 75. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 8
      2005 One Laptop Per Child project begins
      2005 is launched
      2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media buys MySpace
      2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online
      2006 July Twitter launched publicly
      2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune
      2006 Google acquires YouTube for $1.65 billion in a stock-for-stock transaction
    • 76. A Brief Historyof the Internet - 9
      2007 February Apple surpasses one billion iTunes downloads
      2007 March 1.1 billion people use the Internet according to Internet World Stats
      April 2007 Search engine giant Google surpasses Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand," and also is the most visited Web site
      2007 – sales exceed $ 3 Billion
      2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for copyrighted work by major networks,
      December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi-Touch Website Using Silverlight
      Internet Archive:
    • 77. Social Computingin Business
      Example product
      IBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components:
      Profiles - Find the people you need
      Communities - Work with people whoshare common interests and expertise
      Blogs - Present your own ideas andlearn from others
      Dogear - Save and share bookmarks
      Activities - Organize your work andtap your professional network
    • 78. Mobile Subscriptionsby Region