This document summarizes a seminar on ozone pollution challenges. It includes bios of speakers on topics like the global burden of ozone, health impacts of NOx and methane emissions, and strategies for mitigating ozone through emissions controls. The document also discusses air quality trends in Mexico City, including improvements but challenges in attaining standards. Reducing emissions from transportation, industry, and energy production were identified as important to further improve air quality and public health in the region.
2. IOM 2015
SPEAKER BIOS
Jessica Seddon
Director Of Integrated Urban Strategy, WRI Ross Center For Sustainable Cities
Jessica Seddon is the Director of Integrated Urban Strategy at WRI
Ross Center for Sustainable Cities. She leads a network of researchers
and practitioners across WRI’s offices that works with city stakeholders
to change both places and planning to create livable and resilient cities.
Her own work focuses on the way that new sources of information and
environmental awareness can be leveraged to motivate and guide
investments and action that improves air quality, resource efficiency,
and access to shared, green spaces. Outside of WRI, Jessica serves on
the advisory board of the Wilderhill Global Clean Energy Index (NEX)
and the Academic Council of Krea University, a new liberal arts
initiative in South India. She is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Susan Anenberg
Associate Professor, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George
Washington University
Susan Anenberg is an Associate Professor of Environmental and
Occupational Health and of Global Health at the George
Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. Dr.
Anenberg studies the health implications of air pollution and
climate change, from local to global scales. Dr. Anenberg has been a
Co-Founder and Partner at Environmental Health Analytics, LLC,
the Deputy Managing Director for Recommendations at the U.S.
Chemical Safety Board, an environmental scientist at the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, and a senior advisor for clean
cookstove initiatives at the U.S. State Department. Her research has
been published in top academic journals such as Science, Nature,
and Lancet Planetary Health. She has also led or contributed to
many science-policy reports on air quality and climate change
published by U.S. EPA, World Bank, World Health Organization,
United Nations Environment Programme, and others.
Beatriz Cárdenas
Director Air Quality Program, WRI Mexico
Beatriz is Air Quality Manager at WRI Mexico. She is an
expert in air pollution, with experience in both science and
policy, from the study of biological processes to treat air
pollutants, to the design and implementation of integrated
policies to achieve clean air. She joined WRI to lead air
quality work at WRI Mexico and works on developing
strategies and programs to accelerate the path to a cleaner
air.
Terry Keating
Senior Scientist, Office of Research and Development, Environmental
Protection Agency
Dr. Terry Keating is a senior scientist with EPA’s Office of
Research and Development where his current responsibilities
include management of several extramural research programs
and coordination of international activities. Before joining ORD
in 2016, Dr. Keating spent 17 years in EPA’s Office of Air and
Radiation, where he advised senior management on scientific
issues related to the development and implementation of air
quality policies at the national and international level and the
linkages between air quality and climate change. Since 2005, he
has co-chaired the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air
Pollution under the Convention on Long Range Transboundary
Air Pollution. Terry has a PhD and MSPH from the University of
North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
5. Global ozone concentrations and associated mortality
470,000 premature deaths from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
attributable to ambient ozone pollution worldwide…
…and this is an underestimate!
Chang et al. Geosci Mod Dev, 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, 2017
5
6. Ozone precursors
react and affect
air quality and
radiative forcing
differently
Reducing METHANE
Double climate dividend
(cooling), plus global air quality
and health benefits
Reducing CO and NMVOCs
Smaller climate benefits (cooling),
local air quality and health
benefits
Reducing NOx
Larger local health benefits from
reduced ozone, NO2, AND PM2.5,
but potentially climate dis-
benefits (warming)
WARMINGCOOLING
IPCC AR5, 2013
3
7. Methane emission sources and global ozone impacts
Saunois et al. 2016 and International Energy Agency
https://www.iea.org/weo/methane/
Ozone reductions from methane mitigation actions
in UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment, 2011
4
8. NOx emission sources – air quality impacts more localized
250m x 250m population (GHS-POP) 2010-2012 ground-level NO2 at 100m
x 100m (Larkin et al., 2017)
(ppb)
Co-located population
and NO2 in Bangkok,
Thailand
Huang et al.,
ES&T 2017
Courtesy Ploy
Achakulwisut
Power plant
Vehicle
Industry
5
9. NO2 responsible for a large percentage of pediatric asthma
In 125 major cities, the
percentages of new
pediatric asthma cases
attributable to NO2:
• Ranged up to 48%
(Shanghai, China).
• Exceeded 20% in 92 cities,
located in both developed
and developing countries.
1 2 3 4
Seoul
Tokyo
Paris
LosAngeles
NYC
Santiago
Chicago
London
Osaka
Milan
Cologne
SanFrancisco
Madrid
Nagoya
BuenosAires
Philadelphia
Dallas
SanDiego
Singapore
Houston
Toronto
Manchester
DC
Barcelona
Miami
Naples
Sydney
MexicoCity
Lima
SaoPaulo
Monterrey
Bogota
Guadalajara
BeloHorizonte
RiodeJaneiro
Caracas
SantoDomingo
AddisAbaba
Kano
Kinshasa
Johannesburg
Luanda
Lagos
Nairobi
Abidjan
Accra
DaresSalaam
Orlu
Tehran
Dubai
Istanbul
Riyadh
Ankara
Jeddah
Amman
Baghdad
Alexandria
Kabul
Cairo
Casablanca
Khartoum
Algiers
Asyut
Sohag
0
10
20
30
40
50
5 6 7
Karachi
NewDelhi
Ahmedabad
Bangalore
Mumbai
Hyderabad
Faisalabad
Lahore
Dhaka
Pune
Rawalpindi
Surat
Chennai
Jaipur
Kolkata
Lucknow
Kathmandu
Kanpur
Varanasi
Chittagong
Peshawar
Shanghai
Tianjin
Beijing
Shenyang
Xi'an
Taiyuan
Zhengzhou
Harbin
Wuhan
Wuxi
Nanjing
HongKong
Hangzhou
Guangzhou
Chongqing
Qingdao
Hefei
Xiamen
Chengdu
Fuzhou
Taipei
HCMC
KualaLumpur
Manila
Wenzhou
Bangkok
Hanoi
Quanzhou
Bandung
Jakarta
Shantou
Rangoon
Surabaya
Medan
Colombo
Surakarta
Semarang
Moscow
StPetersburg
Tashkent
0
10
20
30
40
50
High-income Latin
America &
Caribbean
Sub-Saharan
Africa
North Africa & Middle
East
South Asia East-Southeast Asia & Oceania
Central
Europe
& Asia
(%)
(%)
Achakulwisut et al., Lancet Planetary
Health, 2019
9
10. 7
Key challenge: excess diesel NOx emissions
Passenger cars
Heavy duty trucks
Anenberg et al., Nature, 2017
Portion of diesel vehicle NOx emissions that are in excess of
certification standards:
• >50% of light-duty diesel vehicles
• nearly 1/3 of heavy-duty diesel vehicles
Translates to 38,000
PM2.5 and ozone-related
premature deaths from
excess diesel NOx
emissions…
… including 10% of all
ozone-related
mortality in Europe
11. Mass balance of organic compounds through the U.S. petrochemical industry in 2012,
from crude oil and natural gas production to resulting VOC emissions.
McDonald et al. Science 2018
Key challenge:
urban VOC
emissions
11
Volatile chemical products now
contribute 50% of emitted VOCs
in 33 industrialized cities in the
U.S.
Includes chemicals in pesticides,
coatings, printing inks, adhesives,
cleaning agents, and personal
care products
12. 12
Key challenge:
climate change
USGCRP Climate and
Health Assessment 2016
It’s not just ozone
precursors that are
important for ozone
mitigation…
… to mitigate future
ozone, we need to
control greenhouse
gases
13. Key points
• Ozone continues to contribute substantially to the global burden of disease
• Multiple approaches to mitigating ozone pollution, with multiple advantages
• Methane controls to achieve climate and air quality co-benefits globally
• NOx emission controls to reduce local NO2, ozone, and PM2.5
• Challenges to managing ozone pollution
• Excess diesel NOx emissions
• VOC emissions from volatile chemical products
• Climate change
10
14. To achieve climate, air quality, and health co-benefits, move
beyond end-of-pipe controls
Scrubbers
Active transportation Zero emission energy
Energy efficiency
Catalytic converters
Diesel particulate filters
11
18. Effects of controlling emissions of ozone precursors:
NOx, VOCs, and CH4
Courtesy Jason West, UNC
18
Emission sources
19. Mitigating
short-lived
climate
pollutants
19
CH4 and BC mitigation
LLGHG, CH4 and BC
mitigation
Reference
LLGHG mitigation
CH4 and BC
mitigation
LLGHG, CH4 and
BC mitigation
Reference
LLGHG
mitigation
Temperature(°C)relativeto1890-1910
1900 1950 2000 2050
UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment of
BC and Ozone, 2011; Shindell et al.
Science, 2012
20. 20
Benefits of 14 global actions mitigating methane and black carbon
UNEP/WMO
Integrated
Assessment,
2011
Much larger health benefits
from black carbon measures
• Methane measures
reduce ozone globally
• BC measures reduce
PM2.5 and ozone (through
reducing NOx, VOCs, CO)
locally
25. Sedema.2018. Informe Anual de Calidad del aire 2017.
http://www.aire.cdmx.gob.mx/descargas/publicaciones/flippingbook/informe_anual_calidad_aire_2017/mobile/#p=158
MAXIMUM HOURLY OZONE CONCENTRATIONS
1986-2017
1986
2017
26. Comparative of contingency days over time (to current levels)
Contingencies days Phase I (equivalent to current levels)
Contingencies days Phase II (equivalent to current levels)
Numberofdays
Year
SEDEMA, 2018
27. Historical Analysis of Population Health Benefits Associated with Air Quality in Mexico City during 1990 – 2014
http://www.data.sedema.cdmx.gob.mx/beneficios-en-salud-por-la-mejora-de-la-calidad-del-aire/descargas/analisis-
ingles.pdf
HEALTH ASSESSMENT:
EVIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF AIR
QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS
28. HEALTH ASSESSMENT: EVIDENCE FOR IMPACTS
OF AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS
• Dockery et al. 2018
Air Pollutant Exposure
Attributable Deaths
Avoided
(thousands)
CI 95%
Ozone 4.1 (2.7 – 5.6)
PM2.5 18.2 (14.0 – 23.5)
PM2.5 & Ozone 22.5 (17.9 - 28.0)
http://www.data.sedema.cdmx.gob.mx/beneficios-en-salud-por-la-
34. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
Sedema.2018
1995-2001990-1995 2002-2010
2011-2020
2002-2010
Proaire in
progress
• Many air quality programs with many actions
but…..
– No specific goal in terms of concentrations
reductions
– Focused on emissions reductions but no
consequences if goals are not met
– No impacts for those who did not comply in
implementing actions
– Reduction of NOx from vehicular sources and fixed
sources but not in the whole metropolitan area nor
in the Megalopolis area
– VOCs reductions from area and industrial sources
are still pending
35. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
• Public transportation improved: 7 BRT lines, 12 metro lines,
shared bikes, bike lines… but
– Euro VI is not close
• Reduction of emissions from vehicular emissions through many
programs such as vehicular inspection + circulation restriction,
fleet has renowed but…….
– Relaxed standards for new vehicles
– Still many heavy duty diesel high polluters
– Ultra low sulfur is not distributed in all country
– Fleet still increasing
– Armonization among the region is still pending
36. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
• Coordination among the three levels of government during
the first years but…..
– Homologation among the megalopolis to control local
sources still pending
– Lack of / no update on federal standards for industrial
emissions (NOx and VOCs)
– Relaxed vehicular emissions standards for new cars
(NOX, VOCs)
37. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
• Less high polluters industries and more local
regulation for Mexico City but….
– Federal standards for most of the fixed sources
emissions are still missing
– The existing ones are so relaxed and,
– … some of them moved somewhere else
38. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
• Reductions of regional pollution due to çlosure of
refinery in Mexico City back in the 90´s and use of
natural gas at the power plant in Tula but……
– Refinery and energy production in Tula area:
• Changes from natural gas to heavy oil will
impact NOx and VOCs emissions
39. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
• Reduction in exposure to most of the
pollutants (ozone, PM2.5 ) but…..
– still non attainment to standards for
ozone and PM2.5
– Need to improve communication to
protect health in the whole region
WHO, data base 2016.
85
122
11
10
36
18
9
29
31
20
33
0 50 100 150
Beijing
Delhi
Los Angeles
Madrid
Monterrey
Paris
San Francisco
Santiago
Temuco
ZMVM
ZMVT
µg/m3
Annual average PM2.5
40. SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
• Preliminar integration of climate change and air quality policy but….
– low emissions policies are not still totally integrated (transport
policy)
– NOx reductions are not considered for CC policy (ozone impact)
– CH4 the only HC considered, what about others VOCs, including
those with high toxicity?
41. • Civil society has been a key part of the air quality improvement and is
still active
• Still better communication to target those actions that could be more
effective
SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES
44. • Latitude 19º N
• 2220 m asl
• Sorrounded by mountains
• Secundary pollutants
production
45. CASO
OZONOEach cell corresponds to the
maximum houly concentration
registered at one monitoring
station between 1990 y 2019
To be able to compared, the
color of the cell corresponds to
the AQI scale as 2019
good 0
- 70
regular 71
- 95
bad 96
- 154
very bad 155
- 204
Extremenly bad
>
=205
LEYENDA
49. HOW? EMISSIONS INVENTORIES OVER TIME
• Updates every two years
• Emission factors and activity
data for some of the sources
• Coverage all metropolitan
area
50. Velasco & Retama. 2017. Ozone´s threat hits back Mexico City. Sustainable Cities and Society. 31:260-263
54. SEDEMA, 2018
AIR QUALITY MODELLING
Global
model
INOAA meteorological model
Emissions
model
Hermes-
México
Hourly model .
Model Hermes-México developed by BSC as part of a collaboration
Chemical
model
C-MAQ
5.2*
Chemical transformations
Run at SEDEMA cluster
Model WRF 3.9 parametrized SEDEMA-BSC using knowledge
from MCMA 2003 y MILAGRO 2006
55.
56. Photo image area measures 2” H x 6.93” W and can be masked by a collage strip of one, two or three
images.
The photo image area is located 3.19” from left and 3.81” from top of page.
Each image used in collage should be reduced or cropped to a maximum of 2” high, stroked with a 1.5
pt white frame and positioned edge-to-edge with accompanying images.
Ozone Governance:
A Multi-Scale Challenge
Terry J Keating, PhD
Partnerships Branch
Office of Science Advisor, Policy, and Engagement
Co-Chair, Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution
Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP)
Office of Research and Development October 30, 2019
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy positions of the EPA.
57. Ozone is a Function of Sources
Near and Far, Anthropogenic and Natural
GEOS-Chem Source Apportionment for Ozone MDA8 (ppb):
Average of all days vs. Average of highest 10 days By U.S. Region 2004-2012 June – August
based on zero-out simulations for each component
US Anthropogenic
Canada and Mexico
Intercontinental and CH4
Other US Background
Lightning NOx
Soil NOx
Biogenic VOC
The reaction of BVOC with ANOx is
included in both BVOC and USA.
Based on results presented in:
Guo, Fiore, et al. (2018)
ACP 18:12123-12140
doi:10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics: A Special Issue
Global and regional assessment of intercontinental transport of air pollution: results from HTAP, AQMEII, and MICS
58. Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Ozone source attribution 58
Ozone is a Function of NOX and Hydrocarbons (VOC and CH4)
Ozone Precursor Tagging: Lupascu and Butler, doi:10.5194/acp-2019-225
Seasonal cycle of surface ozone: Europe
59. 59
https://collections.elementascience.org/toar/
2010-2014 average of the annual 4th Highest Maximum Daily 8-Hour Average
Probability of Increasing or Decreasing
Trends Across Regions 2000-2014
• Accessible data is limited.
• Decreasing peak concentrations
in North America and Europe.
• Increasing peak concentrations
in East Asia.
60. 60
Non-Peak Trends Suggest
Increasing Background Ozone
Average Daytime Surface Concentrations
Non-Urban, Spring, 2004-2014
Northern Hemisphere Mountaintop Nightime
Concentrations by Season, 1970-2015
Satellite Observations of Tropospheric Column
1996-2016
Winter Spring
Summer
Fall
61. 61
An Evolving Spatial Scale for
Science Followed by Policy
1940s
1950s
Haagen-Smit et al.
elucidate role of NOx and
VOC and impacts on
vegetation in Los Angeles
LA Air Pollution Control
District
1960s Oden describes Acid Rain State & Federal Legislation
1970s Crutzen describes the role
of NOx and CH4 in forming
O3 in the remote
troposphere
US Clean Air Act requires
State Implementation Plans
(SIPs).
1980s “A River of O3” in the US
Northeast (Wolff and Lioy) LRTAP Convention
1990s “A Rising Tide of O3” in the
US Southeast (Chameides
and Cowling)
Aircraft campaigns in
Pacific and Atlantic
Ozone Transport
Commission (OTC)
Ozone Transport
Assessment Group
NOx SIP Call
UNFCCC
EANET, Male Declaration
2000s Satellite observations, more
aircraft campaigns, and
global model
intercomparisons, TFHTAP
POPs Convention
Global Air Pollution Forum
Agreements in Africa, Latin
America, ASEAN, Central Asia
2010s Short Lived Climate
Pollutants, TOAR
Hg Convention
Climate and Clean Air Coalition
62. 62
Groupings of Regional Forums
1979 LRTAP Convention
1998 EANET
1998 Male Declaration
2002 ASEAN
2006 Framework for Central Asia
2015 Asia and the Pacific Clean Air Partnership
2008 Eastern Africa Framework
2008 Southern African Development Network
2009 West and Central Africa Framework
1986 Arab League CAMRE
2008 Latin America and Caribbean Network
63. 63
The Current Global Framework for Air
Quality Management is a Patchwork
North
America Europe
Russia and
Central Asia East Asia South Asia
Southeast
Asia
Middle East
/ Northern
Africa
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
South and
Central
America
Austrailia,
NZ and
Pacific
Ambient
Monitoring
Emissions
Inventory
Development
Air Quality
Modeling
Impact
Assessment
Control
Strategy
Evaluation
Common
Policy
Development
World Regions
TechnicalAreasofAirQualityManagement
IPCC
UNEP
UNFCCC
IGAC
WMO/GAW
Arctic Council
LRTAP
APCAP
WMO/GURME
UNFCCC
EANET
CCAC
GEIA
Malé
Decl.
ASEAN
LAC
Blue = Air Quality Focus, Red = Climate Focus
Dark = Intergovernmental, Light = Nongovernmental
Updated from Seddon and Keating, 2012
64. Limits to Growth
• Technical and Institutional Capacity
–At the national and international level
• Political Commitment or Legal Obligations
–Are obligations necessary? Is capacity and self-interest enough?
• Competing Forums or Jurisdictions
–Does action in one arena decrease the motivation for action in another?
• Negotiation Fatigue, Desire for Action
–What is the most efficient path to sustained emission reductions?
• Lack of Urgency or Clarity of Common Interest
–Is additional coordinated international action warranted?
• Lack of Resources or Champions
–How to sustain support for building capacity and motivation?
64
65. 65
How to Strengthen the System
From Seddon and Keating, 2012
• Equalize capacity for action, through technology
transfer, expertise-creation
• Standardize information and improve the ability to
share information
• Engage civil society and business networks to
strengthen local incentives for emissions reduction.
• Create new links to related areas of development or
economic policy, or to activities focused on non-
regulatory approaches and non-governmental actors
• Create opportunities for communication and
information sharing
Global Air Pollution Information Sharing Platform,
hosted by the LRTAP Convention, launching in December