S290 Unit 8

8-1-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Unit 8

Unit 8 Objectives
1. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of
Predictive Service products.
National Weather Service products.
3. Identify ways in which firefighters can
receive fire weather products and weather
observations.
4. Describe the importance of Incident
Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior
Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.

Meeting Fire Management
Needs
• Fire weather/fire potential products
help:
– Plan daily fire management activities
– Plan effective control actions
– Determine short and long term fire
potential
• Products developed by:
– Land Management Predictive Services
– National Weather Service (NWS)

Predictive Services
• Combined group of fire Intelligence
Coordinators, FBANs, and Fire
Meteorologists.
• Each GACC has a predictive services
group to meet the needs of the
geographic area.
• GACC level information is integrated into
national level outlooks.

Predictive Services
Reno
8-5-S290-EP

• Monitors, analyzes and predicts fire weather,
fire danger and interagency fire management
resource impact.
• Produce a range of combined fire weather/fire
danger outlooks for predetermined predictive
service zones.
• Zones based on RAWS climatology and
topography.
Predictive Services
Products and Services

Products are targeted to aid resource related
decision-making at the GACC and national
levels
Northwest Area Predictive
Services Zones
Predictive Services

• 7-Day Significant Fire Potential
• Monthly Fire Weather/Fire Danger
Outlook
• National Fire Weather/Fire Danger
Outlook
• Seasonal Assessment Outlook
• Other products
*Predictive Services
Suite of Products

7 Day Significant Fire Potential
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• Provides fire potential for a
geographical area
• The product includes:
– Weather/fuels discussion
– Current and projected fuel dryness
– Fire potential discussion map
– Significant weather
– High risk days
– Resource concerns
Predictive Services
7 Day Significant Fire Potential

Monthly Fire Weather
Fire Danger Outlook
Fire danger report and map
8-11-S290-EP

Monthly Fire Weather
Fire Danger Outlook
• Monthly:
– Generated by the GACCs
• Includes:
– A brief discussion of general weather/fire
danger for the GA
– A brief discussion on current GA fuel
anomalies/fuel moisture
– Predicted temperature and precipitation
– Fire potential map
Predictive Services

National Wildland Fire Outlook
Predictive Services
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National Wildland Fire Outlook
• National Monthly Outlook:
– Issued monthly and year-round
– Compiled from each GA monthly fire
weather/fire danger outlook
• Product includes:
– GACC narratives
– Current and projected fire statistics
– Fire potential map
Predictive Services

Seasonal Assessments
• Issued on both Geographic and
National levels prior to fire season
• Product typically includes:
– Executive summary
– Introduction and objectives
– Current situation
– Comparison of current and historical
conditions
– Climate, weather, fire forecasts and
outlooks
Predictive Services

– Predicted fire occurrence and resource
needs
– Future scenarios
and probabilities
– Considerations,
concerns and
management
implications
– Summary,
discussions and
Predictive Services
Seasonal Assessments
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• Weather briefings
• Daily summaries of NWS fire weather forecasts
• Long term precipitation monitoring
• Smoke management summaries
• Spot forecasts for planned burns and smoke
management (California)
• IMET or technical specialist support by qualified
GACC meteorologists
Predictive Services
Other Products and Services

National Weather Service
• Consists of over 120 offices
• Has a variety of operational programs,
including fire weather

The Fire Weather Program:
• A core suite of standardized fire weather
products
• Consultation services for prevention,
suppression, and other land management
activities
• Optional products at regional and local office
discretion
• Products issued by core forecast staff at local
office for fire weather service area (fire
weather zones)

The Fire Weather Program

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
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*Fire Weather Forecasts and
Statements provided by the
• Fire Weather Planning Forecasts
• NFDRS Forecasts
• Smoke Management Forecasts
• Spot Weather Forecasts
• Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag
Warnings
• Wildland Fire Danger Statements

• A narrative or tabular zone-type
product
• Purpose:
– Pre-suppression for fire management
– Initial attack readiness
– Daily staffing levels
– Prevention program
• Account for local topography
• Is not site specific

FWF Elements Include:
• Fire weather headlines and discussion
• Sky and weather
• Temperature
• Relative humidity
• Surface (20-foot) wind
• 3 to 7 day outlook

Elements may include:
• Haines Index
• Ridge Top Winds
• Mixing Heights
• Transport Winds
• Dispersion
• Clearing Index
• Chance of wetting rain (CWR)

Lightning Activity Level
LAL 1 – no thunderstorms
LAL 2 – isolated thunderstorms, light rainfall
LAL 3 – widely scattered thunderstorms,
light to moderate rainfall
LAL 4 – scattered thunderstorms,
moderate rainfall
LAL 5 – numerous thunderstorms, moderate
to heavy rainfall
LAL 6 – same as LAL 3, but dry.

Spot Weather Forecast
• Spot Forecasts:
– site specific
– issued to fit time,
topography and
weather of a
specific location
• Used for:
– wildfires
– prescribed burns
– spray projects
– hazmat situations
– other special projects

NWS Spot
– national standard for spot requests
– request/reply web program
– should be used when possible

Request Form
•Request Form includes:
–Project name
–Requesting agency
–Location
–Fuel type
–Observations
–Forecast elements
–Remarks
–Submit
8-29-S290-EP

Spot Weather Forecast Returned
Completed Spot Forecast
– Valid time period
– Topo maps of location
– Location information
– Elevation, aspect
– Fuel type
– Observations
– Requested
parameters
– Forecast
• Discussion
• Forecast
elements
• Feedback

Steps in Obtaining
Good Spot Forecasts
• Take and record representative weather
observations on the fire
• Complete the NWS Spot request form
• Transmit the NWS Spot request form
• Provide forecaster feedback on
accuracy of forecast

Red Flag Warning and
Fire Weather Watch
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Fire Weather Watch
The National Weather Service will issue a
watch or warning
to alert fire and land managers of
CRITICAL or RAPIDLY CHANGING
weather conditions that will potentially
increase fire danger in a significant way.

Fire Weather Watch
• Fire Weather Watch:
– High potential for red flag event in 24-72 hours
– May be issued in first 12 hour time period for dry
thunderstorms
• Red Flag Warning:
– Issued to warn of an impending, or occurring red
flag event
– Issued when confidence is high that red flag
conditions will occur in 24 hours or less

Red Flag Warning and Fire
Weather Watch Criteria
• Criteria may be based on locally or
regionally established thresholds
• General criteria may include high to
extreme fire danger in combination
with:
– Dry lightning (Ignition is or will occur)
– First lightning after an extremely dry period

Red Flag Warning and Fire
Weather Watch Criteria
– Unusually low relative humidity
– Very dry and unstable air (high Haines)
– Very strong and shifting winds that may or
may not be associated with a cold front

Smoke Management Forecast
• Content may include:
– Discussion
– Transport winds
– Mixing height
– Stability
– Dispersion
• Local Fire Management and NWS
should establish content, format, and
frequency of issuance

Retrieving Fire Weather Information
Internet and other Communication
• Main Sources Fire Weather Products:
– Predictive Services web sites
– National Predictive Services Homepage
– Local NWS web sites
– National Weather Service Homepage
• Alternative Sources
– Phone or radio communications from
interagency dispatch center

Real-time Observation Monitor and
Analysis Network (ROMAN)
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Real-time Observation Monitor and
Analysis Network (ROMAN)
• ROMAN
– Weather observation retrieval web
application
– Simple menu system
– Data displayed on regional or local scale

Incident Meteorologist
On-Site Weather Support
8-41-S290-EP

• Include NWS, land management, or state
meteorologists
• Issue incident specific forecasts
• Give weather briefings
• Collect weather information

8-43-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather 8-43-S290-EP

NWS Incident Meteorologist
Technology
• Atmospheric Theodolite
Meteorological Unit (ATMU)
– Upper air observing
– PIBAL and Theodolite

NWS Incident Meteorologist
Technology
– High speed two-way satellite dish for data
transmitting and receiving
– All Hazards
Meteorological
Response System
(AMRS)

Fire Behavior Analyst
• Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN)
– Calculates predicted fire behavior
– Produces fire behavior forecast

Fire Behavior Analyst and
• IMET works for FBAN
• IMET prepares detailed forecast
• FBAN then prepares fire behavior forecast
FBAN IMET

Fire Behavior Forecast
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Fire Behavior Forecast
• Prepared by FBA
• Meets needs of the fire overhead
organization
• The Product:
– Interprets wildland fire calculations
– Describes past and expected wildland fire
behavior
– Identifies hazards due to wildland fire for
ground and aircraft activities

Unit 8 Objectives
Predictive Service products.
National Weather Service products.
3. Identify ways in which firefighters can
receive fire weather products and weather
observations.
4. Describe the importance of Incident
Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior
Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.

S290 Unit 8

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S290 Unit 8