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Models and uncertainty

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ToddCrawford

A discussion of a Monte Carlo analysis of the Johnson and Ettinger Vapor Intrusion model.

Education
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Models and Uncertainty NGWA Environmental Law Conference Dublin, Ohio July 25, 2007 Todd R. Crawford Crawford Independent Analysts Dr. Willem A. Schre üder Principia Mathematica
Uncertainty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monte Carlo ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NGWA Environmental Law Conference 2006 – Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
J&E Model
Using Equations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A Deterministic Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Observed Values are predicted by the J&E Model
What’s the Most Likely Result? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Getting Reasonable Values for α ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reasonable Inputs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reasonable Distributions? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Random Numbers in Excel – example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
α for TCE at 5 m in dry, sandy soil
Summary Statistics for α ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Using the results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Your results may/should differ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
To Do List ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Models and uncertainty

  • 1. Models and Uncertainty NGWA Environmental Law Conference Dublin, Ohio July 25, 2007 Todd R. Crawford Crawford Independent Analysts Dr. Willem A. Schre üder Principia Mathematica
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.  
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. The Observed Values are predicted by the J&E Model
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. α for TCE at 5 m in dry, sandy soil
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.