1. Revisiting Systems Approach
Effects of Climate Change, Urbanization, Land Use, and Mitigation of Environmental Risks
Research Proposal: Sylvia Abernathy, URP6542 /Summer B 2015/ University of Florida

2. Presentation Icons
& Contents Page
Systems Approach
Climate Change
Urban Development
Integrated Decision
Making
Participatory Model
Land Use & Growth
Management
• Introduction
• Research Methods
• Literature Review
• Case Study: Atlanta Region,
and Urban Development
• Methodology
• Findings
• Conclusion & Recommendation

3. Introduction
Systems
Approach
Urban
Development
Land Use
Policy &
Growth
Management
Integrated
Decision
Model
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Participatory
Model

4. Research Hypotheses
Climate Change is the result of Urbanization and requires a Systems Approach to forecast impacts
of population growth empirically.
Systems Theory provides a framework for national governments to philosophically address
behavioral change and scientific to create enabling legislation, and provide fiscal support to equip
cities, states and regions with the mechanisms to adopt adaptation policies.
Measuring climate change and its effects from urbanization requires a systems methodology
where, national fiscal support provides policy for local and regional implementation and
adaptation strategies and mitigation of environmental risks.

5. Research Methods
Political
Economic
Societal
Technical and
Infrastructural
Ecological
Jobs &
Economic
Development
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Built & New
Developments
Growth &
Development
Quality of
Life & Human
Capital
SYSTEMS
APPROACH
Humanities
“Social systems design approaches, evolutionary
systems design confronts the challenges posed
by purposeful stewardship of the earth’s life
support systems.” (Laszlo and Krippner, 1998)
Sciences
“Increasing complexity and interrelatedness of
human social systems highlights the need for a
systems theory that combines the humanities
and sciences in an holistic interpretation of
current realities…” (Laszlo and Krippner, 1998).

6. Systems Approach
• Literature Review
• Definition, Application and Key variables

7. Literature Review:
• Key Variables of Existing
Approach- Ecological Model
• Observed Phenomena of Urban
Cities & Climate Change
Premise 1:
National Policy on Climate Change
provides fiscal support to fund
programs to help Urban Cities
adapt and mitigate environmental
risks.
 Premise 2:
Scientific studies show Climate
Change is caused by Urbanization.
Observed Phenomena:
• Cities while planning for ecology and topographical changes related to
urbanization, have limited financial resources to implement policies related to
climate change adaptation and mitigate future growth related negative impacts of
population increase.
• Studies reveal a “barrier” to preparedness that is rooted in “an array of cultural
and psychological factors” that undermine long-range planning Frumpkin, 2011).
Source: Frumpkin, Howard. (2011) Bumps on the road to preparedness, AM J Prev Med, 40(2): 272-273.
Infrastructure Investment
Transportation
Transit Oriented Developments
(TOD)
New Developments
Land Use Policy
Greener Cities
Mix-Used Developments
Population Increase
High Density
Livable Communities
Ecological Model
Key Variables
of Ecological
Model
(Existing Approach)
Literature Review

8. • Systems Approach interconnects urbanization and climate
change, establishing framework for adaptation policies.
• Systems Approach encourages use of Resilience Strategies
• By measuring external impact, offers researchers an
urban model to forecast effects and adapt.
• Encourages national and international dialogue regarding
“resilience tools for communities”, with funding
mechanisms and investment.
Systems Theory
is the
“Trans-Disciplinary
Framework” for
critical and normative
exploration
(Laszlo and Krippner,
1998).
Application of Systems Theory

9. Climate Change
Vulnerabilities & Environmental Risk

10. Climate Change: Vulnerabilities
&Environmental Risk
• Adaption
Mitigation
Activities
• Anthropogenic
Emissions
• Participatory
Process
• Socio-
economic
Conditions
• Climate Change
Hazards Vulnerabilities
ExposureRisk
Emissions &
Land Use
change
Impacts
Patterns of
risk impact
human and
natural
systems…

11. Environmental
Risk
Publications regarding the
increasing environmental impacts of
urbanization and human behavior,
are on the rise with 97% of journals
on climate change resolving that
“climate change is happening and
human beings are the cause.”
Some form of regional governmental
capacity must be in place to offset
environmental risks and
vulnerabilities: 5,790 square miles
representing more than $1 trillion in
property structure are at risk of sea-
level rise in the Southeast and
coastal communities (National
Climate Assessment, 2014).
(Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC),
(2014) Understanding the regulatory
environment of climate change and the
impact of community design on green house
emissions.)
Agriculture
Co2
Emissions
• Residential
• Commercial & Industrial
Health
• Heat Index (Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami, Tampa increase in days
exceeding 95*F, degrees
• Higher temperatures increase anthropogenic emissions
Water
• Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) water supply shortages &
emptying of reservoirs
• Rise in seal level by 6.6 feet threatening more than 5,790 square
miles and $1 Trillion in property values.
Heat index has risen in Georgia, nearing 2.2 F would reduce overall crop
production of cotton, peanuts, corns, and other harvest. Georgia
agriculture would stand to lose $339 million in crops.
Figures in graphic drawn from Third US National Climate Assessment for the
Southeast region.

12. Climate Change: Models Used In
Urban Cities-Regions
Ecological
Economy-
society-
Ecology
End User
Model
Governmental
Intervention/
Supply Chain
Pricing
New
Urbanism
Regional
Econometric
Model

13. Urban Development
CASE STUDY: THE ATLANTA REGION

14. Impacts of Urbanization: The Atlanta
Region
USE OF REGIONAL MODEL
Livable Cities Regional
Growth
Central Business
Districts
Movie Industry
Knowledge Based
Business
Economic Growth
Emerald
Cities
Land Use Policy
18- COUNTY JURISDICTION

15. Land & Growth
Management
CASE STUDY: ATLANTA’S BELTLINE “EMERALD NECKLACE”

16. Regional Model
Population
(2014)
Land Area
(sq. miles)
Housing Units
(2013)
Home
Ownership
Rate
Mean
Household
Income
Mean travel
time to work
10,097,343 57,513.49 4,109,896 65.1% $49, 179 27 min
Atlanta’s Beltline or “Emerald Necklace” is an
innovation in land use planning. Created in
light of Boston’s Emerald Necklace, is among
urban cities creating mixed use developments,
with ecological framework for integrated
sustainability.
Georgia’s Regional Profile & Major Cities’ Index
Plan developed by regional
stakeholders addressing
urbanization; through
Metropolitan Planning
Organization, the Atlanta
Regional Commission (ARC); a
collaboration of elected officials,
planners, business & civic
leaders, residents, and youth
(high school- University levels).

17. Methodology
FORECASTING POPULATION GROWTH IMPACTS

18. Methodology
Key Variables: Climate Change, City Urbanization Cost, Housing Rate, and Population
Area.
City Urbanization Costs = total cost for city services/ amenities .
Housing rate = unit to measure anthropogenic emissions; reflect population; measure
energy use and efficiencies.
Climate Change impact categories +/-urban heat island, precipitation, carbon cycle,
irregular weather patterns, flooding or drought, and anthropogenic emissions.
Climate Change calculation for estimating costs:
Estimation of Climate Change Impacts (ECCI) = City Urbanized Cost (CUU) * Housing
Rate/ Population Sample

19. Methodology:
Forecasting
Regional
Population Growth
& Why?
Population for research was drawn from governmental
databases that include US Census Bureau, US Energy
Information Administration (EIA), Data.gov, US Global
Change Research, Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), and
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
US Census Bureau data was drawn from 1) results of
household survey on energy; 2) energy consumption
profiles by state and region; 3) data composites that infer
statistically, climate change impacts and correlations
among urbanization activities, population growth patterns,
and energy consumption of US households; and 4) random
sampling.
Regression equation of
variance is used to calculate
sampling error designed by
EIA to look at impacts of
climate change variables.
Human behaviors are directly
correlated with Climate Change
effects. Natural hazards such as
drought, flooding, sea-level
rise, and warming of the earth
surface occur with population
increase—greater demand on
natural environment.

20. Findings
QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK USING QUANTITATIVE METHODOLOGIES

21. Findings:
Data collection is ongoing for this research. The statistical significance of climate change,
urbanization, and land policy are drawn from studies completed through the United States
Census and third US National Climate Assessment.
The following represent the framework for this research; the variables applied for measuring
climate change; and models employed to identify appropriate equations and units of
measurement. Additionally, from the qualitative and quantitative methods used in the research,
generalizations regarding outcomes are made.
Note: data drawn from studies completed through other research, outside of this undertaking,
are validated by the empirical methods specified by that study. References made by this
research to other studies are noted where applied, and are not intended to represent original
data analysis, but reference data.

22. Findings (Case Study-Atlanta Region)
Systems
Approach
Economic
Indicators
End User Model Qualitative
Results
Quantitative
Results
Provides methodology
for implementing
adaptation planning
Crop Loss - $339 million
(projected)
Housing Energy Cost-
Energy Consumption in
Georgia 89.5 million Btu
Socio-economic
measures to protect
vulnerable groups
Annual population
forecasting at the
national level, with
percentages of climate
change impacts (i.e.
energy usage & costs
Framework to
incorporate resilience
concepts in ongoing
planning
Housing
Health Impacts
Vulnerable groups
Anthropogenic emissions
Heat Index
Water
depletion/reservoir
Average Georgia
household energy
expenditure $2,067 per
home.
Model for enhancing
preparedness
Climate change impacts
can be established
through environment
through equation
calculating estimated
population size; annual
consumption; estimating
the average
consumption of the
average person.
System Analysis used to
have national discourse
of funding.
National investment to
support local & regional
implementation.
Costing of System
elements to develop
funding schemes to pay
for adaptation planning.
Participatory methods Linear indication of
interdependencies
within the urban
process.

23. Conclusion & Recommendations
Adaption Planning should be implemented in
local and regional jurisdictions. Currently,
conceptual framework is applied nationally,
and internationally.
Population Forecasting within the context of
Climate Change impacts are conducted
annually at the national level, providing
discourse at the international level regarding
global impacts.
Systems approach to enhancing climate
change impacts throughout US cities; with
funding support at the national level for
adoption and implementation of adaption
planning at local and regional levels.
Adaptation Planning toolkits for local
governments to enhance preparedness of
natural variability and anthropogenic changes
in natural environment; identification of
smart-climate change principles for increased
participatory process.
Governmental Intervention in agriculture and
forestry, to enhance farming innovations,
technologies, and food security measures; are
empirically sound in internalizing climate
change effects on local economies; through
supply chain and pricing (Ding et al, 2014).

24. This ends the presentation. Please share your comments.
Artist David Landis, Continuous Exhibit-Atlanta Beltline