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20130226 hub futures input workshop presentation

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  • 1. Hub Futures Explorers Input Session 26 Feb 2013 #hubfutures Adam Jorlen, Futurist & Helen Palmer, Change Facilitator
  • 2. CHECK IN…in one word or with one breath - How am I?
  • 3. Generic Foresight ProcessCopyright: Joseph Voros
  • 4. InputsThings happening… Delphi – expert panel Environmental scanning – how will the future be different?
  • 5. What is scanning? Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to: 1. better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and 2. identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments relevant to your organization.Dr. Michael Jackson, Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow
  • 6. Why scan? timeCopyright: Wendy Schultz, infinitefutures.com
  • 7. How to scan "Out of the box" thinking, an open mind, and a desire to discover new things. Exposure to many sources, ideas, and challenges. Identify and tear down "taboos" ghosting the organisation Meta-scanning - Bring self-awareness into scanning the world. What are my filters?
  • 8. 10 minutes in pairs…1. What are three “things” which may impactthe future of Hub?2. Discuss Zia Sardar‟s questions: a) Does it make sense? b) Who benefits? c) Where is this going?3. Put all scan-hits on separate post-itnotes.
  • 9. V-STEEP Values Social Technological Economic Environmental PoliticalMarcus Barber - Looking Up Feeling Good -lufg.com
  • 10. Ken Wilber‟s four quadrantmodel
  • 11. Homework – Hub Ethos What stood out for you? What resonates with you? What didn‟t sit right with you? What do you think wasn‟t said? (reading between the lines)
  • 12. Make Framing Decisions Framing enables us to define the scope and focus of the journey Clarify objective for input Framing prevents misunderstandings that generate confusion and wasted work
  • 13. Purpose / Objective We are the future of the Hub A four-month foresight process to:  crowd-source a couple of scenarios or options for the future of Hub Melbourne, and  increase / deepen awareness of futures thinking in the Hub community. Use the wisdom of the crowd Build on Hub Ethos / shared meaning
  • 14. Framing Adjust Attitudes Know the Audience Understand the Rationale and Purpose Set Objectives Select the team and roles(From Hines & Bishop - Thinking about the Future)
  • 15. Scale How far ahead do we look? Today1926 1975 2000 2025 2050 2100
  • 16. #HUBFUTURES Beyond Hub HUB Global OUTPUT INPUT HUB Australia National National Field HUB Field # Melb # F- F- WALL WALL ANALYSISPROSPECTION INTERPRETATIO @adamjorlen N
  • 17. Beginners and ExpertsWho do we ask?"The beginners mind includes - the expertsmind excludes"Shunruy Suzuki
  • 18. Types of Futures Potential – all possible futures Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge) Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge) Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends) Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgments)
  • 19. Types of futures
  • 20. Wisdom of Crowds“[if] you put together a big enough anddiverse enough group of people and askthem to „make decisions affecting matters ofgeneral interest‟, that group‟s decision will,over time, be „intellectually [superior] to theisolated individual‟, no matter how smart orwell-informed he is.”James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds
  • 21. Why would Hubbers help to scan?How can we involve and engage otherHubbers in the scanning process? a) They help other Hubbers in the community b) They get data/info/knowledge/wisdom for themselves and their businesses. c) Gamification (defined target of weak signals each fortnight? Identify good spotters)
  • 22. Wish list Collaborative – Involve and as many people as possible within and beyond the Hub community to capture the wisdom of the group. Creative – Novel, valuable approaches Participatory: Ensure individuals participate, communicate, render opinions, finding commonality and areas of difference.
  • 23. Scanning objectives1. Arranged a Delphi in the community on Yammer with #hubfutures2. Made physically visible the #hubfutures exploration for other Hubbers to contribute to on the physical Futures Wall3. Involved and sourced wisdom from the Hub Wisdom Council in person or via email4. Gained a broader perspective from the world (open foresight) via Twitter #hubfutures5. Engaged and involved global Hubbers through National Field.
  • 24. Roles Helen - Facilitates adventures into the future, Cruise Manager Michael – Foreign correspondent Neil – Ship Mentor Tony - How can Hub spill out in Melbourne? Julien - a. Check multiple perspectives - reflecting around languages and cross-cultural views. b. Bridge the abstract and concrete. Adam – Navigator + Reporter + Captain etc Brad - Shipping magnate (three ships heading out from Sydney + Melbourne + Adelaide) More? Metaphor or other...
  • 25. Hub Futures REPORT SIGNAL!Twitter hash tag + Yammer topic : #hubfutures
  • 26. CHECK OUT What‟s sitting at the top of your mind? What will you do next as a result of today‟s session? Part of the scanning as decided in the session… Expected time for participants...

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