Hub Futures Explorers Input Session 26 Feb 2013 #hubfutures Adam Jorlen, Futurist & Helen Palmer, Change Facilitator
CHECK IN…in one word or with one breath - How am I?
Generic Foresight ProcessCopyright: Joseph Voros
InputsThings happening… Delphi – expert panel Environmental scanning – how will the future be different?
What is scanning? Scanning is the art of systematically exploring the external environment to: 1. better understand the nature and pace of change in that environment, and 2. identify potential opportunities, challenges, and likely future developments relevant to your organization.Dr. Michael Jackson, Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow
How to scan "Out of the box" thinking, an open mind, and a desire to discover new things. Exposure to many sources, ideas, and challenges. Identify and tear down "taboos" ghosting the organisation Meta-scanning - Bring self-awareness into scanning the world. What are my filters?
10 minutes in pairs…1. What are three “things” which may impactthe future of Hub?2. Discuss Zia Sardar‟s questions: a) Does it make sense? b) Who benefits? c) Where is this going?3. Put all scan-hits on separate post-itnotes.
V-STEEP Values Social Technological Economic Environmental PoliticalMarcus Barber - Looking Up Feeling Good -lufg.com
Homework – Hub Ethos What stood out for you? What resonates with you? What didn‟t sit right with you? What do you think wasn‟t said? (reading between the lines)
Make Framing Decisions Framing enables us to define the scope and focus of the journey Clarify objective for input Framing prevents misunderstandings that generate confusion and wasted work
Purpose / Objective We are the future of the Hub A four-month foresight process to: crowd-source a couple of scenarios or options for the future of Hub Melbourne, and increase / deepen awareness of futures thinking in the Hub community. Use the wisdom of the crowd Build on Hub Ethos / shared meaning
Framing Adjust Attitudes Know the Audience Understand the Rationale and Purpose Set Objectives Select the team and roles(From Hines & Bishop - Thinking about the Future)
Scale How far ahead do we look? Today1926 1975 2000 2025 2050 2100
#HUBFUTURES Beyond Hub HUB Global OUTPUT INPUT HUB Australia National National Field HUB Field # Melb # F- F- WALL WALL ANALYSISPROSPECTION INTERPRETATIO @adamjorlen N
Beginners and ExpertsWho do we ask?"The beginners mind includes - the expertsmind excludes"Shunruy Suzuki
Types of Futures Potential – all possible futures Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge) Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge) Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends) Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgments)
Wisdom of Crowds“[if] you put together a big enough anddiverse enough group of people and askthem to „make decisions affecting matters ofgeneral interest‟, that group‟s decision will,over time, be „intellectually [superior] to theisolated individual‟, no matter how smart orwell-informed he is.”James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds
Why would Hubbers help to scan?How can we involve and engage otherHubbers in the scanning process? a) They help other Hubbers in the community b) They get data/info/knowledge/wisdom for themselves and their businesses. c) Gamification (defined target of weak signals each fortnight? Identify good spotters)
Wish list Collaborative – Involve and as many people as possible within and beyond the Hub community to capture the wisdom of the group. Creative – Novel, valuable approaches Participatory: Ensure individuals participate, communicate, render opinions, finding commonality and areas of difference.
Scanning objectives1. Arranged a Delphi in the community on Yammer with #hubfutures2. Made physically visible the #hubfutures exploration for other Hubbers to contribute to on the physical Futures Wall3. Involved and sourced wisdom from the Hub Wisdom Council in person or via email4. Gained a broader perspective from the world (open foresight) via Twitter #hubfutures5. Engaged and involved global Hubbers through National Field.
Roles Helen - Facilitates adventures into the future, Cruise Manager Michael – Foreign correspondent Neil – Ship Mentor Tony - How can Hub spill out in Melbourne? Julien - a. Check multiple perspectives - reflecting around languages and cross-cultural views. b. Bridge the abstract and concrete. Adam – Navigator + Reporter + Captain etc Brad - Shipping magnate (three ships heading out from Sydney + Melbourne + Adelaide) More? Metaphor or other...