2. | Economic Indicators |
2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2014
Europe:
•Consensus October GDP forecast for WE came down again by 0,1%point to 1,3% for 2014 and to 1,5% for 2015.
•The EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence both continued to fall in September.
•The IFO Business Climate index for Germany again fell in September. The German economy is no longer running smoothly.
•Concerns over industry and deflation – and, therefore, the possibility of recession – mark this month’s outlook. The ECB plans to buy private sector assets in order to stipulate lending, but more action is needed, if prices continue to fall.
US:
•Consensus October GDP forecast for the US improved slightly to 2,2% for 2014 and remained on 3,1% for 2015.
•While Q2 GDP was upgraded again to now +4,6% q-o-q from previous releases and personal consumption remained on an acceptable 2,5% pace, outlook over 2014 remains uncertain, especially as the US brace for the normalization of monetary policy.
Japan:
•The October GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,2% to 1,1% for 2014 and from 1,3% to 1,2% for 2015.
•Japan is still working through the impact of April’s consumption tax hike, which impacted sharply on Q2 GDP. Activity collapsed by a sharper than expected annualized 7,1%. Since then, there have been hopes that the economy would get back on track. However, Q3 has been mixed at best and GDP forecasts slipped again.
4. | Economic Indicators |
4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
08 Q1
09 Q1
10 Q1
11 Q1
12 Q1
13 Q1
14 Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
5. | Economic Indicators |
5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
08 Q1
09 Q1
10 Q1
11 Q1
12 Q1
13 Q1
14 Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
6. | Economic Indicators |
6
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Oct 14
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
08/1
09/1
10/1
11/1
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
0,4
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
7. 7 | Economic Indicators |
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Oct 14
Sep; 0,3
Oct ; 0,05
Oct ; 0,25
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Jan 08
July 08
Jan 09
Jul.09
Jan 10
Jul.10
Jan 11
July 11
Jan 12
Jul.12
Jan 13
Jul.13
Jan 14
Jul.14
Jan 15
%
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
8. | Economic Indicators |
8
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Oct 14
10,1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
%
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
9. | Economic Indicators |
9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Oct 14
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Industrial confidence within EU 28 decreased again in September, continuing the downwards trend of the previous months.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
10. | Economic Indicators |
10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Oct 14
Consumer Confidence within EU 28 continued to clearly erode in September
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
11. | Economic Indicators |
11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Sept 14
60
65
70
75
80
85
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
80,5
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
13. | Economic Indicators |
13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
The Ifo World Economic climate brightened slightly in Q3 2014. World economic activity remains on the rise.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
14. | Economic Indicators |
14
Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
The economic climate in Europe slightly fell in Q3 2014, also impacted by the Ukraine crisis.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
15. | Economic Indicators |
15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
16. | Economic Indicators |
16
Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate
Source: IFO Sept 14
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
The economic climate in Asia recovered from its slump in the previous quarter.
17. | Economic Indicators |
17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Oct 14
18. | Economic Indicators |
18
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Oct 14
20. | Economic Indicators |
20
Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Oct 14
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Business situation
6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in September and dropped to its lowest level since April 2013. Firms were less satisfied with their current business situation and also more sceptical regarding future business developments. The German economy is no longer running smoothly.
21. | Economic Indicators |
21
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation
Source: IFO Oct 14
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall in September and dropped to its lowest level since April 2013. Firms were less satisfied with their current business situation and also more sceptical regarding future business developments. The German economy is no longer running smoothly.
22. | Economic Indicators |
22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
Source: IFO Oct 14, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry improved from 0 to +7 in September.
23. | Economic Indicators |
23
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – September 2014:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry improved considerably and reached its highest level since begin of the year (+21).
The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – improved significantly by 7%points.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months deteriorated
Source: IFO Oct 14, bundesverband druck und medien
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Economic Indicators
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