Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Возможности Казахстана на урановом рынке
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Saving this for later?

Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime - even offline.

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Возможности Казахстана на урановом рынке

525
views

Published on

Презентация к докладу вице-президента компании Nukem Брайана Фрейма на казахстанско-американском инвестиционном форуме в Нью-Йорке 7 декабря 2011 года.

Презентация к докладу вице-президента компании Nukem Брайана Фрейма на казахстанско-американском инвестиционном форуме в Нью-Йорке 7 декабря 2011 года.


0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
525
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum 2011 November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc www.nukeminc.com Slide 1Kazakhstan Uranium Marketing OpportunitiesJeffrey R. Faul, President and CEO, NUKEM, IncKazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York, November 2011
  • 2. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc. www.nukemgroup.com Slide 2NUKEM At-A-Glance •World’s largest nuclear fuel trader •50 Years of global nuclear fuel supply •Over 15 million pounds U3O8 annually •Supply arrangements through 2022 •Marketing partner to Kazakhstan uranium industry since 1992 •Important supply relationships with Tenex (Russia) and NMMC (Uzbekistan)
  • 3. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc. www.nukemgroup.com Slide 3Kazakhstan’s Uranium Production:Up, Up and Up 2011
  • 4. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc. www.nukemgroup.com Slide 4 Global Uranium Production by Country, 2001 vs 2011 Global Produc on Shares 2001 Global Produc on Shares 2011 (est) Others Canada Uzbekistan Others 11% 16%Kazakhstan 5% 13% Canada Uzbekistan 34% Australia 6% 4% 11% Namibia 6% Niger Russia Kazakhstan 8% 7% 36% Russia Niger Namibia Australia 7% 8% 7% 21% Sources: EIA for US and Euratom Annual Report for EU
  • 5. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc. www.nukemgroup.com Slide 5 Major Market OpportunitiesWhere are the largest markets for Kazakhstan’s uranium? • Far East? • Europe? • USA?
  • 6. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc. www.nukemgroup.com Slide 6Chinese Puzzle: How Much Will They Buy Now? Chinas Rising Reactor Needs 18000 16000 Mertic Tonnes Uranium 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2018 2019 2020 Source: WNA 2011
  • 7. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc. www.nukemgroup.com Slide 7 China Supply and Demand Basic and Future Supplies – Best Estimate 20,000 AREVA NP 18,000 Areva NC 16,000 Paladin 14,000 KazAtomProm 12,000 CamecotU 10,000 Current Basic Supply 8,000 Demand 6,000 Upper Case 4,000 Ref Case 2,000 Lower Case 0 Sources: 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Demand: WNA 2011 Supply: NUKEM 2011 & Other Sources Year
  • 8. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum Nov 2011 November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc www.nukeminc.com Slide 8Kazakhstan Already Dominant in China 49% of Semizbai JV held by CGNPC (China Guongdong Nuc. Pwr. Corp.)49% of Zhalpak JV held by CNNC (China National Nuclear Corp.) Combined production when in full production: 2,250 tU/per year Chinese “equity share”: Approx 1,100 tU per year, but all sold to China Term contract for 24,200 tU signed with CGNPC 2008-2020 Approx. 2,400 tU per year to 2020 Cameco and AREVA both have major long-term contracts with China, (each about 2,000 tU per year) and both have major production ramping up in Kazakhstan
  • 9. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum Nov 2011 November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc www.nukeminc.com Slide 9Where to from Here?  Japan well-supplied post-Fukushima  Kazakhstan already active in India, and even in 2020, Indian demand will be only 25% the size of China’s  Only large markets left are EU and USA
  • 10. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum Nov 2011 November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc www.nukeminc.com Slide 10 Kazakhstan’s Share in Two Largest Uranium Markets Top Supplier Countries Top Supplier Countries to U.S. Utilities (2010) to EU Utilities (2010) Others Australia Others Australia Nambia 8% 15% S.A.+Namibia 13% 12% 11% Canada 7% 12%Kazakhstan Canada 21% Kazakhstan 15% 16% USA Russia Russia Niger 8% 28% 22% 12% Sources: DOE EIA Uranium Marketing Annual 2010 (US); Euratom Annual Report 2010 (EU)
  • 11. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum Nov 2011 November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc www.nukeminc.com Slide 11Uncovered Uranium Requirements in Two Largest Markets 25000 Metric Tonnes Uranium 20000 Uncovered EU Needs Uncovered US Needs 15000 10000 5000 0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Sources: UX Consulting (US) and NAC (EU)
  • 12. Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum Nov 2011 November 2011 copyright by NUKEM Inc www.nukeminc.com Slide 12Conclusions • There’s a big difference between “reactor demand” and “uncovered reactor demand” • The fast-growing China market is already well-supplied, and Kazakhstan (directly or indirectly) is already the dominant supplier • Further Chinese purchases are simply adding to strategic inventory • While the EU has some unmet requirements, mostly post-2015, they are substantially smaller than unmet US requirements • Given Kazakhstan’s 35% share of global production, and 15% market share in the US, the US must be seen as Kazakhstan’s best opportunity for future uranium sales