Professor Hugh Montgomery
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This is a presentation by Professor Hugh Montgomery at the RUSI Resilience Conference 2014.
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Professor Hugh Montgomery
- 1. Climate Change andand UK Health System Resilience
- 2. THREE QUESTIONS • How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors? • How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures? • What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
- 3. THREE QUESTIONS • How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors? • How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures? • What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
- 5. MORE PEOPLE
- 6. FISH 154 billion kg annually 18.8kg per capita Fish use Food use (kg/capita) CROPS 2.25 trillion kg/year CATTLE 46.6 kg per person use (billion kg)
- 8. • 1 kg of wheat needs 1350 litres of water. • 1 kg of rice needs 3000 litres of water. • 15,000 litres of water / kg meat. MORE WATER • CHINA: Hai river supplemented by aquifer 40 trillion litres/y (40 billion kg grain feeding 120m people) • Iran: overpump 5 billion tonnes water/year (1/3 annual grain harvest) • North Gujarat: water table falling 6m/year • Colorado River Basin lost 65 cubic kilometers (15.6 cubic miles) of water from 2004 to 2013
- 9. Since 1970, we have lost: • 55% of worlds animals 83% of Latin American animals LESS LIFE WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2014 LIVING PLANET INDEX Abundance of 555 terrestrial species, 323 freshwater species, and 267 marine species around the world • 76% of freshwater species • 39% or all marine life
- 10. MORE…CO2
- 11. Earth is gaining energy: 1.6 W/m2 20x human energy use. HEAT 5/sec (285 per minute = 400,000 a day = 146 million/ year)
- 12. WEATHER
- 13. HEALTH IMPACTS Respiratory disease Loss of crops Ground level ozone increase Pollen allergenicity and burden Cardiovascular disease Mental Health Impacts StarvationDrought Reduced Physical Work Capacity Ecosystem Collapse Fires Heatwaves Vector-borne diseases Bacterial diseases High Rainfall Events Poverty Algal blooms Sea level rise Mass Migration WARDiarrhoea Chemical poisoning Reduced Physical Work Capacity Flooding Loss of Habitation
- 14. “..a 4 degrees C future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond “adaptation,”… and has a high probability of not being stable (i.e., 4 degrees C would be an interim Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 13 January 2011 stable (i.e., 4 degrees C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level).”
- 15. • Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III, who leads the U.S. Pacific Command: global warming is "the most likely thing ... [to] cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the otherenvironment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about."
- 16. • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen: “Climate change’s potential impacts are sobering and far-reaching… “Scarcity of water, food and space could create“Scarcity of water, food and space could create not only a humanitarian crisis, but create conditions that could lead to failed states, instability and, potentially, radicalization.”
- 17. THREE QUESTIONS • How are the impacts of both non-communicable and infectious diseases exacerbated by environmental factors? • How will the globalisation of environmental and health risks affect future resilience structures? • What are the likely implications of increased numbers of displaced persons & refugees?
- 18. IS ADAPTATION POSSIBLE? HEATWAVES Summer temperatures >40oC • Heat ‘hotels’: – How Predict? Alert? Service? Fund? • How get people there? – Roads already ‘regularly’ beyond softening temp of 50oC – UK rail is stressed to only 27oC
- 19. MAINTAIN OUR HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE AT TIME OF • Economic pressures (existing) • New economic pressures (climate) • Climate-driven increases in demand• Climate-driven increases in demand – Resp – CVS – Bacterial – Mental – Migrants
- 20. URGENT PREVENTION IS NEEDEDURGENT PREVENTION IS NEEDED WHEN CURE IS IMPOSSIBLE ANDWHEN CURE IS IMPOSSIBLE AND PALLIATION HARD.PALLIATION HARD.PALLIATION HARD.PALLIATION HARD.